How many more times does RCCL suspends cruises before they say enough is enough for 2020 ?

[bigrednole]

My opinion and hope is that the curve flattens out on the current projections of the first week of June. Lets assume that is the case, I would expect cruise lines to get back at it by middle of June or start of July. Although this may be a little conceited, I am hoping it is active by our cruise at the start of August. We didn't have a good vacation last year because of layoff and my family deserves the one booked. If we can't this Summer, then we will target Thanksgiving and then Christmas. We will eventually get on one this year.

[RKHOOKER]

Unless there’s a vaccine there’ll be no cruising in the next 6 months.  No government will open up ports & risk the virus returning in huge numbers.  New Zealand have said no ports will be opening this year.  Australia have said no ports opening for the next 6 months at least.  
Sydney has 8 cruise ships parked outside the heads with 8,500 crew on board wanting to get off the ship & the government has denied them.  In Sydney NSW most of the corona virus cases came from the 2,700 people who got off the Ruby Princess.  Last count over 170 tested positive & it’s estimated that they infected another 1,500 people.  NSW currently has 2,300 positive cases & 10 deaths, 5 from cruise ships & we have tested 108,000 people with symptoms.  We will be entering our winter season in a couple of months, so our government is taking no chances. People who get corona virus & the flu will most likely end up in hospital in a serious condition.
Based on the European numbers at present the USA will peak at about 1 million positive cases before any ports will open.  So USA is roughly a quarter of the way through the main crisis.

To all you Americans good luck, stay home, be strong, start planning your summer 2021 cruises & god bless you all.

[pyrateslife4me84]

21 minutes ago, RKHOOKER said:

Unless there’s a vaccine there’ll be no cruising in the next 6 months.  No government will open up ports & risk the virus returning in huge numbers.  New Zealand have said no ports will be opening this year.  Australia have said no ports opening for the next 6 months at least.  
Sydney has 8 cruise ships parked outside the heads with 8,500 crew on board wanting to get off the ship & the government has denied them.  In Sydney NSW most of the corona virus cases came from the 2,700 people who got off the Ruby Princess.  Last count over 170 tested positive & it’s estimated that they infected another 1,500 people.  NSW currently has 2,300 positive cases & 10 deaths, 5 from cruise ships & we have tested 108,000 people with symptoms.  We will be entering our winter season in a couple of months, so our government is taking no chances. People who get corona virus & the flu will most likely end up in hospital in a serious condition.
Based on the European numbers at present the USA will peak at about 1 million positive cases before any ports will open.  So USA is roughly a quarter of the way through the main crisis.

To all you Americans good luck, stay home, be strong, start planning your summer 2021 cruises & god bless you all.

None of us have any idea what we are talking about, here. I think cruises will return this summer. I’m genuinely curious to see who ends up correct. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by pyrateslife4me84

[pyrateslife4me84]

10 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Not when .... IF it happens.

Ever think it's spreading so fast because the flattening is likely not happening?

A) there is evidence that it is flattening where people are isolating

B) if it doesn’t flatten, this ends faster and more die. There is no reality where it both doesn’t flatten AND lasts longer. We are trying to squish a cupcake into a pancake but there’s only so much batter, either way. 

[PhillyFan33579]

35 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

None of us have any idea what we are talking about, here. I think cruises will return this summer. I’m genuinely curious to see who ends up correct. 

I think most people on this board are posting comments based on what they have heard, what they have experienced first hand, their educational background, etc.  However, there are more than a few people who appear to be under the impression this isn’t serious, like the posts that stated cruises would resume in May. I fall into the category that it is going to be a long time before cruise lines resume operations.
 

Like you mentioned, it will be interesting to see who is correct. Personally I hope you are right but my view is you will be wrong. What I don’t understand is people who get upset when someone posts an opinion different than their opinion. Message boards like this are always going to have different views on any topic. While I don’t agree with your opinion when cruising will resume, your post doesn’t upset me and I respect that you posted graphs to support your view of the situation. 

[pyrateslife4me84]

9 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I think most people on this board are posting comments based on what they have heard, what they have experienced first hand, their educational background, etc.  However, there are more than a few people who appear to be under the impression this isn’t serious, like the posts that stated cruises would resume in May. I fall into the category that it is going to be a long time before cruise lines resume operations.
 

Like you mentioned, it will be interesting to see who is correct. Personally I hope you are right but my view is you will be wrong. What I don’t understand is people who get upset when someone posts an opinion different than their opinion. Message boards like this are always going to have different views on any topic. While I don’t agree with your opinion when cruising will resume, your post doesn’t upset me and I respect that you posted graphs to support your view of the situation. 

I agree. No one knows. However, my frustration stems from people who “know” something will or will not happen based upon opinions. Data informs good opinions on medical issues, not feelings. 

[PhillyFan33579]

19 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

I agree. No one knows. However, my frustration stems from people who “know” something will or will not happen based upon opinions. Data informs good opinions on medical issues, not feelings. 

Just an FYI, I meant to say cruises won’t resume in April in my previous post. While I don’t think cruises will happen in May, I know nothing officially has been announced about cruises for the entire month of May. 
 

My opinion is heavily influenced by cancellations occurring around the world.  Both the Olympics and Wimbledon scheduled in July have already been cancelled.  That makes me think cruise lines are not likely to return prior to the July timeframe at the earliest. Of course these cancellations do not contradict your comment that cruises will return this Summer. 

[pyrateslife4me84]

52 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Just an FYI, I meant to say cruises won’t resume in April in my previous post. While I don’t think cruises will happen in May, I know nothing officially has been announced about cruises for the entire month of May. 
 

My opinion is heavily influenced by cancellations occurring around the world.  Both the Olympics and Wimbledon scheduled in July have already been cancelled.  That makes me think cruise lines are not likely to return prior to the July timeframe at the earliest. Of course these cancellations do not contradict your comment that cruises will return this Summer. 

Big sporting events are different to me—they promote tens or hundreds of thousands to come from all countries to spend extended time together in one place. Further, while August may be ok in Tokyo, Olympic qualifiers are right now. It’s not safe to have athletes traveling and competing right now. 
 

A cruise where folks can be pre-screened and just spend daytime in ports is a bit different. I wouldn’t be surprised to see excursions to inside spaces canceled. 
 

Obviously, just my thoughts. Port areas want to open for business ASAP. 

[zonacruiser25]

I want to cruise again as much as the next person.  My families health is much more important than a cruise right now.  I am close to retirement and we are ready to really start traveling and cruising.  We have Med and TA this tear but who knows what will be happening in that part of the world then.  Waiting a year beats pushing it and possibly becoming ill.

[WeLuvVacation]

We have a cruise scheduled for 5/17/20 on Oasis out of Bayonne. Already have resigned ourselves to the idea that the cruise will not go off as scheduled. And in reality given the current state of affairs in the tri-state NYC area we really don't want to go on a cruise anyway at this point. All it takes is one untested person going aboard the ship (including either myself or my wife) that has the virus as a carrier and it would spread like wildfire. I am just waiting for RCCL to cancel the cruise and hopefully offer the same cash refund that they have been offering so far.

[LorraineP]

1 hour ago, WeLuvVacation said:

We have a cruise scheduled for 5/17/20 on Oasis out of Bayonne. Already have resigned ourselves to the idea that the cruise will not go off as scheduled. And in reality given the current state of affairs in the tri-state NYC area we really don't want to go on a cruise anyway at this point. All it takes is one untested person going aboard the ship (including either myself or my wife) that has the virus as a carrier and it would spread like wildfire. I am just waiting for RCCL to cancel the cruise and hopefully offer the same cash refund that they have been offering so far.

Also waiting for my 5/24/20 Oasis cruise to be cancelled. I have B2B cruises booked on Oasis in October & I give it a 50/50 chance of sailing. 

[RKHOOKER]

Sydney’s police commissioner just announced the 5 Royal ships currently parked outside the heads will be refuelled & restocked today & will be leaving our waters & making their way back to USA.  Ovation, Radiance, Spectrum, Voyager & Solstice.  Also, Carnival Spirit & Splendor are heading back.

[Hobby3333]

9 hours ago, bigrednole said:

My opinion and hope is that the curve flattens out on the current projections of the first week of June. Lets assume that is the case, I would expect cruise lines to get back at it by middle of June or start of July. Although this may be a little conceited, I am hoping it is active by our cruise at the start of August. We didn't have a good vacation last year because of layoff and my family deserves the one booked. If we can't this Summer, then we will target Thanksgiving and then Christmas. We will eventually get on one this year.

The COVID19 will not even reached its peak in Florida or Texas by the end of May.  RCCL needs to do the right thing and cancel all cruises until September 2020. 

[bobmacliberty]

This model says that Florida will peek on May 3, and Texas will peak on May 6:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[pyrateslife4me84]

31 minutes ago, Hobby3333 said:

The COVID19 will not even reached its peak in Florida or Texas by the end of May.  RCCL needs to do the right thing and cancel all cruises until September 2020. 

That’s rather arbitrary.  

[Hobby3333]

1 hour ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

That’s rather arbitrary.  

Really? Louisiana is a new hot spot.  I live in Texas and have a very good idea of what is going on.  No cruise line in their right mind would try to sail from Galveston or New Orleans or any port in Florida in the next 90 days.  Even if Texas peaks in the next 35 days the curve still has to go down. Again, RCCL should cancels all cruises until September 2020.

[JAMESCC]

21 minutes ago, Hobby3333 said:

Really? Louisiana is a new hot spot.  I live in Texas and have a very good idea of what is going on.  No cruise line in their right mind would try to sail from Galveston or New Orleans or any port in Florida in the next 90 days.  Even if Texas peaks in the next 35 days the curve still has to go down. Again, RCCL should cancels all cruises until September 2020.

Woo hoo this leaves us in the clear....maybe. Sept. 6th Oasis.😔

Edited April 2, 2020 by JAMESCC

[BillieJeanKaraokeKing]

Personally I would be staggered if cruising was to resume before Q4 2020, and even say that with a smidgen of optimism. 

 

There is far far more to this than when we believe we have passed the peak of infection and deaths. 

[grandgeezer]

11 hours ago, bigrednole said:

My opinion and hope is that the curve flattens out on the current projections of the first week of June. Lets assume that is the case, I would expect cruise lines to get back at it by middle of June or start of July. Although this may be a little conceited, I am hoping it is active by our cruise at the start of August. We didn't have a good vacation last year because of layoff and my family deserves the one booked. If we can't this Summer, then we will target Thanksgiving and then Christmas. We will eventually get on one this year.

The other day I watch “the Donald’s press conference, and his guru of infectious diseases said    
that travel would be one of the last things that would be returning to anything close to normal. If that is true, based on what is going on now, my guess would be early August at the earliest. I also don’t hold much hope for Europe this year. If it does resume, the itineraries will be drastically changed.

[time4u2go]

14 minutes ago, BillieJeanKaraokeKing said:

Personally I would be staggered if cruising was to resume before Q4 2020, and even say that with a smidgen of optimism. 

 

There is far far more to this than when we believe we have passed the peak of infection and deaths. 

I agree.  There are so many moving pieces to the cruise industry, including having ports available to travel to, which seems like it could be a long time.

[pyrateslife4me84]

37 minutes ago, Hobby3333 said:

Really? Louisiana is a new hot spot.  I live in Texas and have a very good idea of what is going on.  No cruise line in their right mind would try to sail from Galveston or New Orleans or any port in Florida in the next 90 days.  Even if Texas peaks in the next 35 days the curve still has to go down. Again, RCCL should cancels all cruises until September 2020.

Yes. Arbitrary. 
 

[Hoopster95]

11 hours ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

A) there is evidence that it is flattening where people are isolating

B) if it doesn’t flatten, this ends faster and more die. There is no reality where it both doesn’t flatten AND lasts longer. We are trying to squish a cupcake into a pancake but there’s only so much batter, either way. 

 

Correct me if I didn't get your point B....

No matter whether this "curve is flattened" and this extends this pandemic, or those that are supposed to die all die quickly due to no social distancing, you are saying to have said the exact same amount of people would die either way. Therefore social distancing has no effect of saving lives, just extending those lives that would die anyways.  

 

Point A... what evidence are you sourcing?

 

By the way, the charts above... what are they for & where are they from? Do they imply there will be zero cases in mid May in Louisianna?

[Hobby3333]

9 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Correct me if I didn't get your point B....

No matter whether this "curve is flattened" and this extends this pandemic, or those that are supposed to die all die quickly due to no social distancing, you are saying to have said the exact same amount of people would die either way. Therefore social distancing has no effect of saving lives, just extending those lives that would die anyways.  

 

Point A... what evidence are you sourcing?

 

By the way, the charts above... what are they for & where are they from? Do they imply there will be zero cases in mid May in Louisianna?

After two very good bottles of La Crema, I still predict cruises will not resume until they resume.  OK, everyone has the definitive answer.  Drink more wine

[pyrateslife4me84]

3 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Correct me if I didn't get your point B....

No matter whether this "curve is flattened" and this extends this pandemic, or those that are supposed to die all die quickly due to no social distancing, you are saying to have said the exact same amount of people would die either way. Therefore social distancing has no effect of saving lives, just extending those lives that would die anyways.  

 

Point A... what evidence are you sourcing?

 

By the way, the charts above... what are they for & where are they from? Do they imply there will be zero cases in mid May in Louisianna?

I’m saying the same number of people will eventually get infected. That is the premise of “flatten the curve.” The same number of people get sick, but over a longer period of time to avoid overwhelming healthcare. An overwhelmed healthcare system leads to more deaths due to lack or resources. This is why states are panicking over lack of ventilators. If too many get sick too quickly, we can’t treat everyone and more people die. 
 

To point A, the mayors of NYC and LA have said so. Further, there are signs that the rate of new infections in Europe are falling. 

 

My figures above were in reference to an arbitrary suggestion that cruises cannot continue in Texas, Louisiana, or Florida for 90 days. Expectations for demands on the healthcare systems in those states suggest a return to normal conditions by 7/1 at the latest. This timeline has been confirmed by Dr. Fauci. It is expected that infections will slow considerably until the 2nd wave, whenever that happens. During that time, social distancing can be relaxed because...that’s just how it is done. 

It is important to use real resources from experts before claiming that one “knows” something to be the case because they have a good idea of what is going on. Decisions on how society will function cannot be made based upon a “feeling”.

 

More to the point, states want tourism dollars. The current POTUS and Gov. DeSantis have already shown a willingness to allow some to die in support of the economy. They will again. 
 

But this idea that the world will not move on before a vaccination is available shows a gross misunderstanding of epidemiology. This mythical vaccine may never come. But if it does, the suggestion that it will come in 12-18 months is (foolishly?) optimistic. That would be the fastest vaccine ever developed. By far. Given how pandemics spread and how contagious this one is, the far-more-likely outcome is eventual herd immunity and improving treatments of the seriously ill. The silver lining for areas currently hard-hit is that they will achieve herd immunity faster. 

[JAMESCC]

53 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

Yes. Arbitrary. 
 

That is the absolute best website for tracking all this. I found it fascinating when I found it the other day. Peak here in NJ should be April 9th. Its gonna be hell all over the country this month. It does drop to almost nothing by June 1. By May its very low also. Long way to go. Doctors are Nurses are absolute Angels of America.