How many more times does RCCL suspends cruises before they say enough is enough for 2020 ?

[JAMESCC]

9 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

I love your optimism and try to be very positive for my kids. They don’t need to see a worried Dad for any reason. However, looking at the situation it’s hard to see sailings start soon. China may have limited cases now but that’s only achievable through a mandatory 14 day quarantine for everyone coming into the country. Even if something like that was replicated and tolerated in Europe or the US, it would rule out any travel for work or vacation. 
As it stands the scientific community have focused on flattening the curve to give health care services a fighting chance. The work goes on for a vaccine and treatments for the symptoms but for now all we have is containment. 
One thing that makes me feel very optimistic is the sense of community and togetherness that this has brought out in people. If we can keep that after the vaccine, then it will be the silver lining to this cloud. 

Well here you go. I look for the silver lining all the time. Am I worried about what is going on, hell yeah but there is good news around, just have to look for it. This is still a ways off but check this out.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/johnson-johnson-to-begin-clinical-trials-on-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate.html

[ThirstyCruiser]

13 hours ago, Roger88 said:

It may last forever.

 

This too shall pass.

 

Things are never really as bad or as good as they seem.

[DaneDog311]

5 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

The South China Morning Post claims patient zero discovered November 17 of last year.   From  November to now would be approximately 5 months for China with almost 3 of them under lock-down.  They are just now returning to their new normal.  

 

If the US followed the same time frame and curve that would be about around early to mid-July.  No matter the case, short or long time frame, we are all in it for the long haul.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

 

 

Government manipulation would never happen there.😉

 

Seems that the citizens of China feel the same way

 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wuhan-residents-say-coronavirus-figures-released-by-china-dont-add-up

[Iamcruzin]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

I am, I know that but I'm looking at the timeline of other countries and looking at where we are. Listening to experts, especially here in NJ that are pretty confident the peak should be in 2 weeks or so. Now we have a bunch of bone headed missteps unfortunately but better, fast testing is coming on now. 

Look up J&J Vaccine. Testing to begin in Sept and mass production for early 2021. 

I do believe cruises will begin in early June. Richard Fain is confident this will be the case as well. I'm optimistic. We have a lot of hard work and pain ahead unfortunately though. 

I lean on the side of pessimism as I would rather be wrong and pleasantly surprised than being optimistic and being disappointed.  With that said I hope you are right not only for those who are looking forward to getting back to cruising  but especially for those who are fighting at the front lines and are now getting sick themselves. I have too many friends and family in the medical field who are still going to work each day and trying to stay safe. I would love for cruises to start up again if only for the threads about over priced cabanas, drink packages and even the dress code. I really miss those live threads because even though I won't' be cruising for a while it's nice to see others enjoying themselves.

 

[A&L_Ont]

13 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Well here you go. I look for the silver lining all the time. Am I worried about what is going on, hell yeah but there is good news around, just have to look for it. This is still a ways off but check this out.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/johnson-johnson-to-begin-clinical-trials-on-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate.html

I am a realist, but I also like positives. Unless every State gets on the same track immediately this will be a long process.  Lets forget when cruising, or Disney etc get up and going again.  The positive we all want to see is the saving of lives.
 

On that note, here is some more positive news.  Ford, GE Healthcare to produce 50,000 ventilators by July 4. It might be too late to help NY but there will be other States needing them.
 

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ford-ge-healthcare-to-produce-50000-ventilators-by-july-4

[Arzeena]

I am a realistic optimist. And I do like to see the lights at the end of the tunnel, so to speak.

However, considering that Bermuda has cancelled the Newport Bermuda Race set for June 16, all the itinerary changes from Canada cruises to Bermuda seem doubtful to me as of now. Hoping those are not the next round of cancellations.
That's only a nagging thought at the back of my mind, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that there is a very positive outcome.🙂

 

[Arzeena]

2 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

I am a realist, but I also like positives. Unless every State gets on the same track immediately this will be a long process.  Lets forget when cruising, or Disney etc get up and going again.  The positive we all want to see is the saving of lives.
 

On that note, here is some more positive news.  Ford, GE Healthcare to produce 50,000 ventilators by July 4. It might be too late to help NY but there will be other States needing them.
 

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ford-ge-healthcare-to-produce-50000-ventilators-by-july-4

Good News is always welcome!!!!!!

[A&L_Ont]

15 minutes ago, Arzeena said:

I am a realistic optimist. And I do like to see the lights at the end of the tunnel, so to speak.

However, considering that Bermuda has cancelled the Newport Bermuda Race set for June 16, all the itinerary changes from Canada cruises to Bermuda seem doubtful to me as of now. Hoping those are not the next round of cancellations.
That's only a nagging thought at the back of my mind, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that there is a very positive outcome.🙂

 

I also wonder how Mexico is going to cope.  Their government is not on the right approach, as of now.  No ships will be calling on Mexican ports for sometime even if they get their act together.
 

What Caribbean ports will be open, even if the cruise ships are moving. Let alone other parts of the world. 
 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mexico-s-choice-amulets-or-science-to-fight-covid-19-1.5513973

Edited March 31, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Jimbo]

Testing a Vaccine already started back on March 16th in Seattle.

https://www.aol.com/article/lifestyle/2020/03/30/who-can-get-a-coronavirus-test/23965796/#slide=7671505#fullscreen

 

After it opens click Read Captions

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Jimbo

[ThirstyCruiser]

Things will eventually return to normal. And that return may start happening in May. Or June. But it won't be like flipping a light switch. There will be a schedule (planned or unplanned) of things going back to normal. Less risky things will happen first - golf courses get back to normal, parks open. Very risky things will come back much, much later - 100,000 people in a stadium for concert?

 

On that spectrum where do you think cruising falls? Its gonna be a long time (like, not June 2020) before 6500 people pile onto a ship in Bayonne, go away for a week, no ability to quickly evacuate, no ICUs, a ventilator if you are lucky and oh lets make sure a significant portion of that 6500 consists of the demographic most likely to die from complication due to COVID-19.

 

Royal is going to need some early wins. Some no news, boring, nobody died (for any reason!) cruises. I think they want to avoid opening up some sailings too early and making headlines in a negative way. The cost might be crippling otherwise.

 

The answer to most things in life and all things in business is "money". That's what Royal is sweating out now. What is going to cost more. Having all those ships sit? Cruising too early?  Those executives are earning their paychecks now. Glad I don't have to make these literal life-and-death billion dollar decisions.

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by ThirstyCruiser

[Mikew0805]

I can't live in constant worry that I will not get to do what I love most. I will continue to book, and have something to look forward to. If they get cancelled... then they will be cancelled and I will have the next one to look forward to. 

[vidsmart]

2 minutes ago, ThirstyCruiser said:

Things will eventually return to normal. And that return may start happening in May. Or June. But it won't be like flipping a light switch. There will be a schedule (planned or unplanned) of things going back to normal. Less risky things will happen first - golf courses get back to normal, parks open. Very risky things will come back much, much later - 100,000 people in a stadium for concert?

 

On that spectrum where do you think cruising falls? Its gonna be a long time (like, not June 2020) before 6500 people pile onto a ship in Bayonne, go away for a week, no ability to quickly evacuate, no ICUs, a ventilator if you are lucky and oh lets make sure a significant portion of that 6500 consists of the demographic most likely to die from complication due to COVID-19.

 

Royal is going to need some early wins. Some no news, boring, nobody died (for any reason!) cruises. I think they want to avoid opening up some sailings too early and making headlines in a negative way. The cost might be crippling otherwise.

 

The answer to most things in life and all things in business is "money". That's what Royal is sweating out now. What is going to cost more. Having all those ships sit? Cruising too early?  Those executives are earning their paychecks now. Glad I don't have to make these literal life-and-death billion dollar decisions.

 

 

Great post; my thoughts exactly

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Ok, you guys be pessimistic. Things change fast, if you can't see that then that is your problem. Look how fast this hit. It two months things can look drastically different, better. I'm sorry that you can't see that. On another note, everyone better hope to hell Royal is sailing earlier than 2021 because there will be no Royal Caribbean to sail. No business can withstand 9 months of absolutely no revenue and ships that cost a billion dollars or more each. The pessimistic attitude is really wearing thin. 

 

They better be sailing by August or they are toast. They got a ton of debt and very little new cash coming in. They are surviving on the money they brought in for all the cruises that have been cancelled and replaced most of the money with fccs to the people that actually thought it was a good deal. If and when things pick up a good share of it will be paid for with the fccs, robbing Peter to pay Paul.

If you don’t like the pessimistic attitude try something different like giving people actual reasons to be optimistic. I’ve seen 0 in your post. 

[mugtech]

I was told to cheer up, things could be worse, so I cheered up and things got worse.

[DISFANS3]

Good info..

[PhillyFan33579]

15 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Call me one of those "overly optimistic people". I believe cruises will start June 1 or around there. When this thing peaks in a few weeks [which is going to be painful and horrible] then the numbers will start to fall. 4 weeks of falling numbers will help calm nerves. Its all sad no matter how we look at all this. 

Nothing wrong with being optimistic. I don’t consider myself a pessimist, but based on everything I have heard and read, there is no way any cruises are happening around June 1. I will be happy if our cruise in October sails. I fully expect the three cruises we have booked prior to that one will all be cancelled. 

[JAMESCC]

9 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

 

They better be sailing by August or they are toast. They got a ton of debt and very little new cash coming in. They are surviving on the money they brought in for all the cruises that have been cancelled and replaced most of the money with fccs to the people that actually thought it was a good deal. If and when things pick up a good share of it will be paid for with the fccs, robbing Peter to pay Paul.

If you don’t like the pessimistic attitude try something different like giving people actual reasons to be optimistic. I’ve seen 0 in your post. 

Read my other posts, I gave plenty. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

12 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

I am a realist, but I also like positives. Unless every State gets on the same track immediately this will be a long process.  Lets forget when cruising, or Disney etc get up and going again.  The positive we all want to see is the saving of lives.
 

On that note, here is some more positive news.  Ford, GE Healthcare to produce 50,000 ventilators by July 4. It might be too late to help NY but there will be other States needing them.
 

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/ford-ge-healthcare-to-produce-50000-ventilators-by-july-4

Unfortunately, ventilators are not having great success in turning patients around. Worldwide, only about 12% recover after intubated. The US is seeing a slightly better rate. 

[A&L_Ont]

3 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Unfortunately, ventilators are not having great success in turning patients around. Worldwide, only about 12% recover after intubated. The US is seeing a slightly better rate. 

 

And I've been called negative.😉 

 

Given the option of nothing, it is better.  A vaccine would be better but will take time.  Spacial separation, can be accomplished easily if people actually do it.  As we see in the news there are a lot of COV-IDIOTS out there. Florida has caught on, and other states will too.  Just hopefully not the hard way.  

 

IMO a national 2-4 week hold/stay in place should be mandatory and reviewed again upon the results.  One can take the "hit" now or drag out the inevitable. Otherwise what is happening in NY will occur in every state, one by one.  That is until people wisen up.  

[mek]

14 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Ok, you guys be pessimistic. Things change fast, if you can't see that then that is your problem. Look how fast this hit. It two months things can look drastically different, better. I'm sorry that you can't see that. On another note, everyone better hope to hell Royal is sailing earlier than 2021 because there will be no Royal Caribbean to sail. No business can withstand 9 months of absolutely no revenue and ships that cost a billion dollars or more each. The pessimistic attitude is really wearing thin. 

It's my understanding that Carnival Corp has a business plan in place for the possibility that no cruises will start up until 2021.  I would imagine Royal is coming up with the same thing.  There is speculation that NCL would not be able to survive if that happened.

I don't think people are being pessimistic at all - just realistic.  Why do you think cruising would start up before there is either a very effective treatment, which is a possibility just not by June, or a widely distributed vaccine, which won't happen until 2021.

Why would the cruise lines even consider letting people board a ship when there is a possibility that infected people would board and start this whole thing all over again.  If they allow that to happen then that really would be the death of cruising.

 

[Milwaukee Eight]

13 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

And I've been called negative

Positive - as testing increases, the death rate percentage will decrease. Currently in US, it’s about 1.8%. South Korea is a little better. Common Flu is about half the current rate COVID death rate in US. 

[JAMESCC]

7 minutes ago, mek said:

It's my understanding that Carnival Corp has a business plan in place for the possibility that no cruises will start up until 2021.  I would imagine Royal is coming up with the same thing.  There is speculation that NCL would not be able to survive if that happened.

I don't think people are being pessimistic at all - just realistic.  Why do you think cruising would start up before there is either a very effective treatment, which is a possibility just not by June, or a widely distributed vaccine, which won't happen until 2021.

Why would the cruise lines even consider letting people board a ship when there is a possibility that infected people would board and start this whole thing all over again.  If they allow that to happen then that really would be the death of cruising.

 

I don't disagree with this, interesting points but this puts us back to "cruises won't start till there is a vaccine". I do not believe any of these lines will survive that long. Don't forget just because a vaccine is found cruises don't start the next day. It will take time to manufacture it and administer it. I don't believe even Carnival will survive that long. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

21 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Positive - as testing increases, the death rate percentage will decrease. Currently in US, it’s about 1.8%. South Korea is a little better. Common Flu is about half the current rate COVID death rate in US. 

Don’t like quoting myself but wanted to add. Common Flu has a test that is easily accomplished in your Doctors office with quick results.  Not yet for COVID.  There is also a yearly vaccine that is available at no cost. More people are tested for common flu. The key here is getting the COVID vaccine out. 

[JAMESCC]

31 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Don’t like quoting myself but wanted to add. Common Flu has a test that is easily accomplished in your Doctors office with quick results.  Not yet for COVID.  There is also a yearly vaccine that is available at no cost. More people are tested for common flu. The key here is getting the COVID vaccine out. 

Interesting because I was a Flu vaccine denier. I was stupid and thought it was BS but last February I got the Flu really bad. It kicked my butt bad, was out of work more than a week messing up a work bonus. This year, my wife, our 6 year old son and I got the Flu vaccine. Now how can I prove that is the reason I didn't get it this year. I can't but I am getting the Flu shot going forward. I'm not taking the chance again. That Flu last year kicked my butt so bad, it was awful. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by JAMESCC

[Iamcruzin]

1 hour ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

And I've been called negative.😉 

 

Given the option of nothing, it is better.  A vaccine would be better but will take time.  Spacial separation, can be accomplished easily if people actually do it.  As we see in the news there are a lot of COV-IDIOTS out there. Florida has caught on, and other states will too.  Just hopefully not the hard way.  

 

IMO a national 2-4 week hold/stay in place should be mandatory and reviewed again upon the results.  One can take the "hit" now or drag out the inevitable. Otherwise what is happening in NY will occur in every state, one by one.  That is until people wisen up.  

When you read some of the replies here still comparing this to the flu and a lot of hype, it isn't any wonder why this continues to spread. A few more states along the east coast are now tightening up . The way this is spreading south I don't see the Caribbean opening up any time soon.