Major itinerary changes likely?

[NantahalaCruiser]

11 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

Nor does it control the port of Nice (one more cruise ship port of call along that stretch of coastline)  —but I was talking about Monaco, so what is your point?

 

But now that you raise Villefranche, I am inclined to think those folk also might not continue to welcome mega-ships.

My point is that probably at least half of those getting off in Villefranche take a tour to Monaco - so just closing the port of Monte Carlo would not stop cruise visitors to Monaco; and if Villefranche was still open, the ships formerly stopping directly in Monaco would probably shift to Villefranche and Monaco would still get about the same number of cruise visitors!

[cruisemom42]

Truth be told I find that having so many of these speculative threads on what cruising should/might/will/must look like in future to be kind of draining.

 

In reality we don't have any idea what will happen in future. Cruises may bounce back as well as they did after 9/11 if COVID-19 fades away or a vaccine is rapidly deployed. Or not.

 

Ports in many countries hard-hit by the virus may be in no position to play hard-ball with cruise lines if their own citizens have suffered economic hardships, as we have. I cannot imagine how many people in the Venice area must be out of work due to the virtual halt in tourism to begin with, followed by months of shut-down due to the virus itself. And the second will need to end before the first picks up.  So cities may be pretty eager to welcome cruisers back, among other types of tourists. Or they may not.

 

Ships may carry half the passengers and charge four times the price, meanwhile advertising the latest in travel medicine and onboard ICU suites.  Or they may continue as before, because the virus is a) widespread, making quarantine useless, b) weakened to a flu-like syndrome due to mutation, and/or c) controlled by vaccines. 

 

Whatever happens, I look forward to the day when there are once again questions to be answered about the actual travel destinations and the travel experience -- be that a year, two years, or five years. Hmm, it makes me wonder if Cruise Critic itself will survive if cruising doesn't make a comeback sooner rather than later...

[lenquixote66]

28 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

Truth be told I find that having so many of these speculative threads on what cruising should/might/will/must look like in future to be kind of draining.

 

In reality we don't have any idea what will happen in future. Cruises may bounce back as well as they did after 9/11 if COVID-19 fades away or a vaccine is rapidly deployed. Or not.

 

Ports in many countries hard-hit by the virus may be in no position to play hard-ball with cruise lines if their own citizens have suffered economic hardships, as we have. I cannot imagine how many people in the Venice area must be out of work due to the virtual halt in tourism to begin with, followed by months of shut-down due to the virus itself. And the second will need to end before the first picks up.  So cities may be pretty eager to welcome cruisers back, among other types of tourists. Or they may not.

 

Ships may carry half the passengers and charge four times the price, meanwhile advertising the latest in travel medicine and onboard ICU suites.  Or they may continue as before, because the virus is a) widespread, making quarantine useless, b) weakened to a flu-like syndrome due to mutation, and/or c) controlled by vaccines. 

 

Whatever happens, I look forward to the day when there are once again questions to be answered about the actual travel destinations and the travel experience -- be that a year, two years, or five years. Hmm, it makes me wonder if Cruise Critic itself will survive if cruising doesn't make a comeback sooner rather than later...

When I joined CC in 2008 there were 19 online cruise boards.Now there are less than a handful.The reason why CC will be around is because we are given the opportunity to discuss non cruise related things .

[navybankerteacher]

27 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

...

 

...Hmm, it makes me wonder if Cruise Critic itself will survive if cruising doesn't make a comeback sooner rather than later...

I would think that, if cruising does not make a comeback, there will be an uptick on Cruise Critic as a sort of grief management exercise — at least until the hardcore addicts die off.  

[ilikeanswers]

55 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

Hmm, it makes me wonder if Cruise Critic itself will survive if cruising doesn't make a comeback sooner rather than later...

 

So many travel forums have closed in the last two years. Few days ago I read that Thorn Tree is closing, it is one of the oldest and has a huge number of active members and that still didn't save it😔

Edited April 18, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[clo]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

Hmm, it makes me wonder if Cruise Critic itself will survive if cruising doesn't make a comeback sooner rather than later...

Thanks, mom. You wrote what had been niggling around in my feeble old brain 🙂 

[ldubs]

13 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

So many travel forums have closed in the last two years. Few days ago I read that Thorn Tree is closing, it is one of the oldest and has a huge number of active members and that still didn't save it😔

 

I think a lot of forums using this more cumbersome and expensive format have succumbed to Facebook groups.   At least, that has just happened to another forum I belong to.    

[ldubs]

16 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

Truth be told I find that having so many of these speculative threads on what cruising should/might/will/must look like in future to be kind of draining.

 

 

Oh boy, that is the truth.  Though I do find a lot of it interesting and thoughtful.  

 

I am just amazed at how many CC members are epidemiologists.  I could hardly spell the word four weeks ago.  😀😀😀

[clo]

5 hours ago, ldubs said:

 Though I do find a lot of it interesting and thoughtful.

I find these threads a break from 'real news' which is just wearing me out. Talk about a lot of 'what-if's'!

[dsrdsrdsr]

I suspect that once things get back to normal, the people who have been in lockdown for many months (who make up the bulk of the UK cruising market at least) will realise that, given the choice of going on holiday with their excess spare cash or remaining indoors staring at the walls, holidays are more fun.

 

2021 bookings, they tell me, are higher than usual this far in advance.

[NantahalaCruiser]

8 minutes ago, dsrdsrdsr said:

I suspect that once things get back to normal, the people who have been in lockdown for many months (who make up the bulk of the UK cruising market at least) will realise that, given the choice of going on holiday with their excess spare cash or remaining indoors staring at the walls, holidays are more fun.

 

2021 bookings, they tell me, are higher than usual this far in advance.

On the other hand, if cruises open up too soon in 2020 or early 2021, and we again see COVID-19 infested ships struggling to find a disembarkment port, you will quickly see a rush on cancellations again. Only time will tell.

[clo]

10 minutes ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

On the other hand, if cruises open up too soon in 2020 or early 2021, and we again see COVID-19 infested ships struggling to find a disembarkment port, you will quickly see a rush on cancellations again. Only time will tell.

I just read that Facebook announced they won't have any large gatherings until July 2021.

[clo]

25 minutes ago, dsrdsrdsr said:

I suspect that once things get back to normal, the people who have been in lockdown for many months (who make up the bulk of the UK cruising market at least) will realise that, given the choice of going on holiday with their excess spare cash or remaining indoors staring at the walls, holidays are more fun.

 

2021 bookings, they tell me, are higher than usual this far in advance.

But why not go on non-cruise holidays for a year or two?

[babs135]

8 hours ago, clo said:

But why not go on non-cruise holidays for a year or two?

I think you might be right.  I've come to the realisation that I know more about foreign places than I do about my own!  In the quest for sunshine we've nearly always holidayed abroad, but I think now is the time to start exploring the UK from top to bottom.  Small (and large) hotels are going to need our money anyway so if we can help restart the economy we will do what we can.

 

Thinking we may start in Scotland and do the whisky trail - that'll please DH !!!!!!!

Edited April 19, 2020 by babs135
Additional comment

[Extra Kim]

On 4/18/2020 at 3:41 AM, lenquixote66 said:

When I joined CC in 2008 there were 19 online cruise boards.Now there are less than a handful.The reason why CC will be around is because we are given the opportunity to discuss non cruise related things .

Well CC are still around because it had a lot of members when the glory days of the forum format started to go down.

If CC will still be around, comes down to two things:

1. If they can keep their members.

2. If they can get new members.

 

With the later being the most important thing.

9 hours ago, clo said:

But why not go on non-cruise holidays for a year or two?

Maybe because people prefere cruising?

If everyone did this, it wouldn't be any cruiselines in 2023. 

[clo]

7 hours ago, babs135 said:

I think you might be right.  I've come to the realisation that I know more about foreign places than I do about my own!  In the quest for sunshine we've nearly always holidayed abroad, but I think now is the time to start exploring the UK from top to bottom.  Small (and large) hotels are going to need our money anyway so if we can help restart the economy we will do what we can.

 

Thinking we may start in Scotland and do the whisky trail - that'll please DH !!!!!!!

We LOVE your part of the world. And decades ago toured MacAllan (?sp). We've done some amount of England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales. And, yes, re local businesses needing our support.

[clo]

6 hours ago, Extra Kim said:

Maybe because people prefere cruising?

If everyone did this, it wouldn't be any cruiselines in 2023. 

Well, then there are things they're never going to see but to each their own.

 

And I honestly think that anyone who cruises before there's a solid vaccine is, well, not thinking clearly. 

[lenquixote66]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Well, then there are things they're never going to see but to each their own.

 

And I honestly think that anyone who cruises before there's a solid vaccine is, well, not thinking clearly. 

We agree once again. Are we the only sane people on the planet ?

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Well, then there are things they're never going to see but to each their own.

 

And I honestly think that anyone who cruises before there's a solid vaccine is, well, not thinking clearly. 

I think you are right - but when you review some of the CC posts it becomes apparent that a goodly number of cruisers do not think too clearly.   It might just happen that COVID 19 will become endemic - the bulk of the at-risk population having been culled from the population, the majority who become exposed might just suffer moderate symptoms (or none at all, as already happens in some cases) — so COVID will just be seen as an additional risk, a bit more serious than Noro, but worth accepting for the sake of cruising.

[clo]

31 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

We agree once again. Are we the only sane people on the planet ?

Most are same but it's those others that stand out these days. Just got back from food errands and, while probably 80% of people had on masks it's the others....

[clo]

28 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I think you are right - but when you review some of the CC posts it becomes apparent that a goodly number of cruisers do not think too clearly.   It might just happen that COVID 19 will become endemic - the bulk of the at-risk population having been culled from the population, the majority who become exposed might just suffer moderate symptoms (or none at all, as already happens in some cases) — so COVID will just be seen as an additional risk, a bit more serious than Noro, but worth accepting for the sake of cruising.

Yep. And I notice your use of the word "might" twice. And I'd put money on the question of will there be, as you or someone equally smart, a ROBUST vaccine by Summer 2021. I'll be on the no side. Maybe never. Maybe a resurgence. Maybe a vaccine that loses strength over time. Maybe a virus that mutates a lot. Maybe reinfections that they're perhaps seeing in Singapore. And don't forget - LOLOLOLOL - I'm the one who drinks tap water all over the world. I don't scare easily. But with this that can kill, especially we old coots, then you bet I won't be cruising perhaps ever, perhaps not for a few or a lot of years.

[lenquixote66]

6 minutes ago, clo said:

Most are same but it's those others that stand out these days. Just got back from food errands and, while probably 80% of people had on masks it's the others....

We cannot do food errands.My wife has a respiratory errand and I suffer from 10 illnesses.If I got the Corona Virus I would not survive.

Luckily we have a daughter living 5 minutes from us who shops for us.

Tonight we are having something we have not eaten in 6 weeks,Pizza.

My wife wears a mask to go out for the mail.

[cruisemom42]

45 minutes ago, clo said:

Yep. And I notice your use of the word "might" twice. And I'd put money on the question of will there be, as you or someone equally smart, a ROBUST vaccine by Summer 2021. I'll be on the no side. Maybe never. Maybe a resurgence. Maybe a vaccine that loses strength over time. Maybe a virus that mutates a lot. Maybe reinfections that they're perhaps seeing in Singapore. And don't forget - LOLOLOLOL - I'm the one who drinks tap water all over the world. I don't scare easily. But with this that can kill, especially we old coots, then you bet I won't be cruising perhaps ever, perhaps not for a few or a lot of years.

 

I would say I have a fair knowledge base and I am not so pessimistic as you. I do not happen to think that our only hope is a vaccine. Given how this has spread worldwide so quickly, and given repeated findings that indicate many people are infected with few or no symptoms, I also (like nbt) have thoughts of it becoming a relatively mundane (e.g., more or less like another flu) seasonal risk. 

 

Regarding vaccine development, much work has been done in various consortia (I know of a couple in Europe in particular that have done good work) on how to speed up the vaccine development process (e.g., the part where the candidate is identified and the vaccine design is developed) -- and we are not starting from scratch with this particular type of virus, albeit it is a different strain. They also have developed ways to manufacture the large amounts of the vaccine more rapidly.  Testing cannot be speeded up much, but if the vaccine is designed using already approved technology and is not one of the riskier types, there are some steps in testing that MAY be not needed.

 

I would venture to guess we might be able to consider non-cruise travel by the end of this year -- but the path forward for cruising is less clear to me.

[clo]

3 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

I would venture to guess we might be able to consider non-cruise travel by the end of this year -- but the path forward for cruising is less clear to me.

And I feel the same as you regarding non-cruise travel. As I've mentioned, I'd like a good mask and could wear it for ten or more hours on a plane/airports. But I couldn't/wouldn't do it for a two week cruise. We have an FCC for Hurtigruten good though 2021. We would likely use it on a small ship for under a week. Maybe. I admit that seeing people being downright arrogant about not wearing masks doesn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Thanks for your comments. I always respect what you have to say.

Cath

[clo]

42 minutes ago, clo said:

And I feel the same as you regarding non-cruise travel. As I've mentioned, I'd like a good mask and could wear it for ten or more hours on a plane/airports. But I couldn't/wouldn't do it for a two week cruise. We have an FCC for Hurtigruten good though 2021. We would likely use it on a small ship for under a week. Maybe. I admit that seeing people being downright arrogant about not wearing masks doesn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Thanks for your comments. I always respect what you have to say.

Cath

Possible second wave of virus in China: 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1264413/coronavirus-news-china-henan-hubei-wuhan-covid-19-pandemic-second-wave-lockdown?fbclid=IwAR1xI8qUGnoivaia9ELMa19ACyKXRFll4Ir3RgHYC2HYqETWTn9SfQDAtwg