Time for NCLH financial-related posts?

[greykitty]

 Mr. Sommer addresses the size of the new ships ordered (vis a vis other ships in their fleet) and why the smaller size seemed right to NCL and NCLH at that time.  

 

You're right, not an immediate response to COVID.

 

But interesting, to me, that even a year ago they were thinking 'smaller', and may be of great benefit in an after-COVID world.

[rallydave]

2 hours ago, rallydave said:

Anybody else notice that while all of the cruise lines have cut staff and reduced hours of the worker bees, nothing about cutting the multi-million dollars salary and bonuses of the executives.   Many millions of dollars to save from the executives and a lot more than saved by the office staff? 

 

14 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

rallydave - what is the source of your information about executive salaries not being cut at Regent?  I do not think this should be stated unless it is a proven fact.

I stated it as a question that had anyone noticed a reduction in executive salaries since I had seen nothing about reductions  so since I hadn't seen it of course no link to a negative.  By the way I never mentioned Regent simply cruise lines and had not seen you link you posted but, no date on the link.

 

As far as air fares, Regent should not be affected by the current air fares as they have Contracts with the airlines with negotiated fares.  Also you are looking at a particular route and not the entire US.

[Guerncruising]

19 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

 

rallydave - what is the source of your information about executive salaries not being cut at Regent?  I do not think this should be stated unless it is a proven fact.  While this is. not a definitive answer, it sure looks like executives had their pay cut https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23046-norwegian-extends-pay-cuts-for-top-executives.html

 

Yes, it is evidenced fact and not opinion that is important. 

 

 

[rallydave]

1 minute ago, Guerncruising said:

Yes, it is evidenced fact and not opinion that is important. 

 

 

And it was stated as a question and not a fact or opinion.  Just missed the question mark but, the words are a question.

[Travelcat2]

30 minutes ago, rallydave said:

And it was stated as a question and not a fact or opinion.  Just missed the question mark but, the words are a question.

 

I suppose that it can be construed as a question but it didn't sound that way.  You said: "Anybody else notice that while all of the cruise lines have cut staff and reduced hours of the worker bees, nothing about cutting the multi-million dollars salary and bonuses of the executives. "

 

It sounds to me as if you are asking if anyone else noticed that cruise lines have cut staff and reduced hours but nothing has been said about cutting executive salaries.  Here is another article about RCG executives pay cuts https://www.*****.com/2020/04/01/royal-caribbean-executives-take-pay-cut-coronavirus-impact-cruise-industry-deepens

 

So, since it is supposed to be a question, the apparent answer is that executives have had pa cuts (did not check Carnival Corporation.) 

[Wendy The Wanderer]

4 hours ago, Pcardad said:

Nothing surprised me in this data. But I also think cruising will remain in some form NO MATTER HOW LONG it takes to resume. It is a profitable business model and perhaps only the very high end will survive. I expect to see 1/3 ships cut up before this is over. I think the giant 6500 passenger ships with be a thing of the past. Smaller ships like Navigator might be the future.

 

I'm fantasizing about large-ish ships being turned into luxury ships.  I'm not that familiar with mass market sizes, but say Millenium or Eclipse class on Celebrity--in the 3000 pax range.

 

What if...you turned them into a luxury ship.  The inside and lower cabins could give the staff private rooms.  The kitchens would be immense, and allow for lots of distancing. The many public spaces would provide lots of places for people to eat and be entertained without being crowded.  Then the remaining larger suites could configured for luxury.  Not sure how that would work out as far as the number of passengers, but let's say in the 700 range, just to pick a ballpark size that's common in the Regent world.

 

It might work.  Whether I could possibly afford it would be another matter.

[Travelcat2]

Wendy can't see my posts but I cannot imagine putting 700 people on a ship that normally carries 4,000 passengers (thinking of NCL) unless you are going to put in a skating rink, or 2-deck race car track like they have on NCL's Bliss).  Way too much space for 700 passengers IMHO.

 

For a long time I have wished that the Navigator had 50 less suites in order to have more public areas.  Silversea has two ships the size of Navigator and they are lovely (they carry just under 400 passengers instead of Navigator's 490 passengers).  

 

I feel that the cruise industry needs low-cost cruising on mainstream cruise lines.  They could cut capacity in order to accommodate distancing and just to give passengers some breathing room.  Perhaps they could do away with some staterooms but, going from 4,000 to 700 probably will not happen.

[Bellaggio Cruisers]

STOCKS TO WATCH

Norwegian Stock Is Rising, Despite a Loss. People Are Still Booking 2021 Cruises.

 

 

Today’s news....

Sheila

[Travelcat2]

1 minute ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

STOCKS TO WATCH

Norwegian Stock Is Rising, Despite a Loss. People Are Still Booking 2021 Cruises.

 

 

Today’s news....

Sheila

 

Thanks for posting that Sheila.  This is what I'm seeing as well (not the stock part but the number of people booking 2021 cruises).

[rallydave]

9 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Thanks for posting that Sheila.  This is what I'm seeing as well (not the stock part but the number of people booking 2021 cruises).

Well, the following was earlier posted from the NCLH Quarterly Report  As one can see 66.67% or 1/3 of the bookings are from FCC's.  And, the balance of $0.4B of advanced sales and at say $5000 per booking that would be approx 160,000 bookings divided by 28 ships and divided by approx an average of 35 sailings per year and that equals approx 163 bookings per ship for 2021.  This is an average based on assumptions plus the specific $0.4B in advanced cash sales from the NCLH meeting today.

 

Not a lot of bookings so perhaps people are booking but, not in very large numbers.

 

 

Posted earlier by greykittie:

"As of June 30, 2020, the Company had $1.2 billion of advanced ticket sales, including the long-term portion, which includes approximately $0.8 billion of future cruise credits. The Company continues to take future bookings and receive new customer deposits and final payments on these bookings."

[Pcardad]

163 bookings per ship for 2021 is impressive to me. That is an average of 326 people per cruise. That is darn near 50% capacity on cruises 6 to 18 months out in the middle of the largest pandemic in 70 years.

[mrlevin]

1 minute ago, Pcardad said:

163 bookings per ship for 2021 is impressive to me. That is an average of 326 people per cruise. That is darn near 50% capacity on cruises 6 to 18 months out in the middle of the largest pandemic in 70 years.

 

Some of those ships hold 3,000 passengers.  And some of those deposits are for 2022.  And don't forget all the Oct-Dec cruises where final payment has been made.  $400M in cash deposits is really a small amount.

[rallydave]

1 minute ago, Pcardad said:

163 bookings per ship for 2021 is impressive to me. That is an average of 326 people per cruise. That is darn near 50% capacity on cruises 6 to 18 months out in the middle of the largest pandemic in 70 years.

This is not just Regent ships.  These are NCLH numbers and include Regent, NCL and Oceania; 28 ships with some of the NCL ships holding thousands of people

 

If only Regent, yes, good numbers but, there are 17 NCL ships included in that average. so nowhere near 50% across the entire NCLH fleet.

[Travelcat2]

If we are going to look at the negative side, we also need to look at the positive side.  When Regent cancels a cruise and the passenger decides upon FCC's, Regent is keeping 75% of the cruise fare.  It is in the best interest of Regent to give FCC's rather than processing cancellations and refunds.  Regent is making money from the FCC's ... just not as much as if the ship sailed and there were no cancellations.

 

Pcardad - just saw your posts.  Assume that you are discussing Regent (or are you posting about NCLH) when discussing 163 new bookings per ship?

 

 

[greykitty]

I think the stock bounce came because investors feel comforted that NCLH states that it has money to survive for through at least part of 2021 under a no sail order, due to its borrowing/refinancing during the last quarter. 

 

Also, the use of FCCs sort of muddies the water, I think, in determining the true demand out there.  I think the percentage rise of customers asking for refunds rather than FCCs may be significant - we'll see if that's a continuing trend next earnings report.

 

I will say del Rio does what he's supposed to do - puts the best face forward in a difficult situation.  I think even the analysts felt for the guy.

 

[RJ2002]

A report from Travel Weekly on FDR's comments from the earnings call.  Interesting to note as well that NCLH has no plans to retire any ships in the fleet.

 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) said that cruise demand is strong, particularly for 2021, despite significantly reduced marketing efforts and not having to heavily discount.

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Norwegian-Cruise-Line-Holdings-sees-encouraging-signs-for-2021

 

 

[howiefrommd]

Just now, greykitty said:

 

 

I will say del Rio does what he's supposed to do - puts the best face forward in a difficult situation.  I think even the analysts felt for the guy.

 

You are absolutely correct, but then again that is the job of a CEO to due.  You could tell there was even some hesitation in their voice when asking him questions.  

[rallydave]

16 minutes ago, Travelcat2 said:

 When Regent cancels a cruise and the passenger decides upon FCC's, Regent is keeping 75% of the cruise fare.  It is in the best interest of Regent to give FCC's rather than processing cancellations and refunds.  Regent is making money from the FCC's ... just not as much as if the ship sailed and there were no cancellations.

Not sure where 75% comes from Regent keeps 100% of the cruise fare paid) but, I was only talking about the cash fares being booked for the $.04B.  The FCC's in future bookings were reported as $0.8B and not in the calculation.

 

Yes, the FCC's are at 125% of the amount paid and included in the future FCC bookings 

 

If you are talking about how much Regent has compared to the 125% FCC's that would be 80%

Edited August 6, 2020 by rallydave

[greykitty]

I felt badly for Mark Kempa, the CFO. I do admit I wish they had zoomed the call - I would have liked seeing expressions as well.  

[rallydave]

2 minutes ago, RJ2002 said:

A report from Travel Weekly on FDR's comments from the earnings call.  Interesting to note as well that NCLH has no plans to retire any ships in the fleet.

 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) said that cruise demand is strong, particularly for 2021, despite significantly reduced marketing efforts and not having to heavily discount.

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Norwegian-Cruise-Line-Holdings-sees-encouraging-signs-for-2021

 

 

That is the job of the CEO to paint a pretty picture however figures tell the true story.  Also strong is extremely subjective.

[greykitty]

Transcript of today's call

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4365362-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-nclh-ceo-frank-del-rio-on-q2-2020-results-earnings-call

[pappy1022]

To qualify for a FCC don’t you have to be paid in full?

[howiefrommd]

With the dramatic rise (only kidding) in the value of NCL stock, maybe the CEO bought 7 million dollars worth of stock with the proceeds of the sale of his home a few weeks ago. 

[RJ2002]

8 minutes ago, greykitty said:

I will say del Rio does what he's supposed to do - puts the best face forward in a difficult situation. 

 

6 minutes ago, howiefrommd said:

You are absolutely correct, but then again that is the job of a CEO to due.  

 

3 minutes ago, rallydave said:

That is the job of the CEO to paint a pretty picture however figures tell the true story.  

 

Absolutely agree, that's his job.  However, the numbers speak for themselves.   

 

Preparation and resumption of sailing in a safe manner will be another story to come.

[greykitty]

Other than the NCLH ships that are actively involved in repatriation efforts at this time, the call today mentioned most of the ships will be in layup mode - this should help conserve some cash, right?

 

"Our goal during the lay-up period is to reach a minimum level of manning on each of our ships, while complying with all regulations, minimizing our cash burn rate and maintaining our vessels to be ready to reenter service in class and under short notice. In terms of where we are today, all vessels not involved in repatriation efforts or undergoing dry docks or laid up in ports requiring extra crew are expected to be at minimum manning status in the next 30 to 45 days."