September Restart in Europe?

[groryjm]

2 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Carnival still hasn't announced they're canceling their US home port cruises in August. Other than the CDCs rules, there isn't much stopping cruising atm. I think if they announce a hard start date, August, Sept, or Oct, bookings will shoot up. There is pent up demand even if we have some people here thinking otherwise. 

don't forget CDC only covers US potrs and waters

 

[pumpkin 11]

5 minutes ago, groryjm said:

don't forget CDC only covers US potrs and waters

 

Yes, but listen to the NCL CEO, their influence stretches further than that according to him. Not saying he is right or wrong, but I think that will be the trigger for the major cruise lines.

[excitedofharpenden]

Cunard have just announced an extension of operational pause to November. 

 

Phil 

[Miaminice]

15 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Yes, but listen to the NCL CEO, their influence stretches further than that according to him. Not saying he is right or wrong, but I think that will be the trigger for the major cruise lines.

 

An analyst asked exactly this question during the earnings call - will Royal / Celebrity start cruising in other regions despite the no sail order of the CDC in the US.

 

In a nutshell the answer by Fain and Bayley was a yes - if possible in other regions first!

That´s when cruising in Europe and China before the US was mentioned.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Miaminice

[pumpkin 11]

3 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

An analyst asked exactly this question during the earnings call - will Royal / Celebrity start cruising in other regions despite the no sail order of the CDC in the US.

 

In a nutshell the answer by Fain and Bayley was a yes - if possible in other regions first!

That´s when cruising in Europe and China before the US was mentioned.

 

okay great

[jelayne]

4 hours ago, york survey said:

 

8. Millennium, Eclipse and Solstice. Will restart in the Far East/Australia in the fall

Stuart

 

The September Transpacific sailings of both the Millenium  and Eclipse from Vancouver to Tokyo have been cancelled. 

[TeeRick]

3 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Nope, not going to happen like that.  Cruises from Europe won't be viable unless US passengers can get to Europe and international flights aren't close to restarting.  First cruises for Celebrity will be from the US and go to Mexico. Royal may use Galveston.   Plenty of the US can drive to those ports.

I think you are on target about American passengers.  But cruises from the UK and EU with local passengers on 50% capacity ships to limited ports might be a way to kick start things there.

[york survey]

I'm clearly on a roll (with a little help for another topic!!)

 

So my original post suggested a start up with 3 ships. I'm not saying that's right and we have had a great discussion on it.

The 3 ships were Constellation (currently off Greece), infinity (Currently heading for India) and Apex ( in Saint Nazaire). 

 

What if Infinity stays in India until the start of August and then takes on enough crew for the 3 ships and heads back.  With reduced passengers resulting in reduced crew it could bring back enough crew for all 3 ships and the 4 week trip back would be an automatic quarantine.  

 

Glass half Full!!

[TeeRick]

2 minutes ago, york survey said:

I'm clearly on a roll (with a little help for another topic!!)

 

So my original post suggested a start up with 3 ships. I'm not saying that's right and we have had a great discussion on it.

The 3 ships were Constellation (currently off Greece), infinity (Currently heading for India) and Apex ( in Saint Nazaire). 

 

What if Infinity stays in India until the start of August and then takes on enough crew for the 3 ships and heads back.  With reduced passengers resulting in reduced crew it could bring back enough crew for all 3 ships and the 4 week trip back would be an automatic quarantine.  

 

Glass half Full!!

Keep up the thinking!  Maybe somebody at Celebrity will read your ideas here!

[york survey]

8 minutes ago, jelayne said:

The September Transpacific sailings of both the Millenium  and Eclipse from Vancouver to Tokyo have been cancelled. 

 

Yes that's a problem with my assumptions so could see some moves and rejigs. 

[kebrown]

As of yesterday, Celebrity has drastically increased the prices on all Apex cruises in August, September and October of this year.  The prices for these European cruises are more than double what they were a few days ago.  I wonder what that means?  I wonder if people are trying to use their 125% FCC to book these cruises since Italy and Spain are opening their borders to international tourism in July?

[pumpkin 11]

42 minutes ago, kebrown said:

As of yesterday, Celebrity has drastically increased the prices on all Apex cruises in August, September and October of this year.  The prices for these European cruises are more than double what they were a few days ago.  I wonder what that means?  I wonder if people are trying to use their 125% FCC to book these cruises since Italy and Spain are opening their borders to international tourism in July?

Very possible. But impossible to know for sure...

[madmacs]

3 hours ago, york survey said:

 

I look at it the other way round. With all the other main lines cancelling out of Southampton this increases the opportunity for Celebrity to pick up some local passengers. Helping them to make the required load factors - Take market share 

 

I believe they could easily get to the 30% required for Apex without our American friends (I'll add that it would be a shame as the best cruises are the multi national ones)

 

PS I'm also on the Silhouette this back end - 9th October!!

One of us will be right - we are on the same cruise if it runs!

[bikerunner]

All fun speculating and I dont think there is any clear answer what will happen at all.  I just hope my cruises for Nov 2020 are a go out of Ft Lauderdale to the Caribbean.  I check the different islands to see what is opening or when.  Overall it will be interesting seeing how the itinerary's get changed when cruising starts, what/who will be open is the driver of course  

[york survey]

4 minutes ago, madmacs said:

One of us will be right - we are on the same cruise if it runs!

 

Stay positive and I'll buy you a drink as soon as we board!!

[C-Dragons]

2 hours ago, kebrown said:

As of yesterday, Celebrity has drastically increased the prices on all Apex cruises in August, September and October of this year.  The prices for these European cruises are more than double what they were a few days ago.  I wonder what that means?  I wonder if people are trying to use their 125% FCC to book these cruises since Italy and Spain are opening their borders to international tourism in July?

We applied our FCC to our existing TA on Apex this October.
Approximately one fourth of our Roll Call has canceled but the majority are hanging on and we continue to have new members join us.

X needs to bring Apex to the US for her Caribbean season, so we are pretty confident our sailing will go ahead as planned from Barcelona. Our glass is half full. 🤞🏼

[Baron Barracuda]

5 hours ago, Miaminice said:

 

The information about the break even point being 30% in newer, more fuel efficient,  and 50% in older ships has been stated/published by CFO Jason T. Liberty and CEO Richard Fain. You will find plenty of Europeans willing to fill those 30/50% - including me 🙂

 

 

Believe the 30% ships Fain referred to are  Royal's mega sized Oasis, Quantum and maybe Freedom class.  Apex would likely be a 50% but X's small M class ships might have even higher break-even.  Given the choice, expect Fain would prefer to get the big boys (girls?) back on line first.

[Miaminice]

17 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

Believe the 30% ships Fain referred to are  Royal's mega sized Oasis, Quantum and maybe Freedom class.  Apex would likely be a 50% but X's small M class ships might have even higher break-even.  Given the choice, expect Fain would prefer to get the big boys (girls?) back on line first.

It’s mostly about age of the ships and fuel efficiency. Older ships like M class Or Freedom are less fuel efficient. They need more paying guests to break even. New ships, like Edge class and latest Quantum class ships are among the 30% ships. New technologies and even the bow shape reduced the fuel consumption.

M class was mentioned somewhere to be in the 50% range.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Miaminice

[grandgeezer]

5 hours ago, Miaminice said:

 

Several cruises are marketed in China / Asia only and the ships have been especially remodelled according to Chinese taste (Quantum class) because of the mainly/almost exclusive Chinese clientele.

Same with other cruise lines. NCL Joy was specifically built to cater to Chinese taste.

Anyway, Royal´s management mentioned that the Chinese offices are already getting prepared. So I am more confident in cruises starting there first before Europe and the US at last.

 

The information about the break even point being 30% in newer, more fuel efficient,  and 50% in older ships has been stated/published by CFO Jason T. Liberty and CEO Richard Fain. You will find plenty of Europeans willing to fill those 30/50% - including me 🙂

 

 

 

I wonder if the 30% and 50% numbers to break even include paying back all the debt the recently acquired? You can bet the number of passenger on the ship will greatly exceed that if people are willing to pay, social distancing be damned.

[Quo Vadis?]

Cunard cancels thru November:

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23066-cunard-extends-pause-in-operations-to-november.html?fbclid=IwAR2Ca_aooAQ86Mi8xT258BAEtRFV66Yz_tNgsydcw-weehlLDHKR4bFrwzo

 

[Miaminice]

36 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

 

I wonder if the 30% and 50% numbers to break even include paying back all the debt the recently acquired? You can bet the number of passenger on the ship will greatly exceed that if people are willing to pay, social distancing be damned.

I am sure it just covers the cost of sailing. 
 

I hear ya, but I think social distancing and cruising are not necessarily a contradiction.

We more or less cruise to have our peace. We don’t attend the social hours, don’t go to the shows etc. We love the times where it’s nice and quiet - so, although we are very social people, I guess we always practice social distancing “light“ on a cruise. 😂

 

[ipeeinthepool]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

 

I wonder if the 30% and 50% numbers to break even include paying back all the debt the recently acquired? You can bet the number of passenger on the ship will greatly exceed that if people are willing to pay, social distancing be damned.

 

You're correct to ask.  The 30% - 50% referenced in the conference call referred to an accounting calculation called EBITDA.  Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.  EBITDA is another way to look at net income and does not include the very large interest costs.  They would still incur huge loses in a 30% "breakeven scenario" but it might be about equal to the cost of just floating around without passengers. 

[york survey]

6 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

You're correct to ask.  The 30% - 50% referenced in the conference call referred to an accounting calculation called EBITDA.  Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.  EBITDA is another way to look at net income and does not include the very large interest costs.  They would still incur huge loses in a 30% "breakeven scenario" but it might be about equal to the cost of just floating around without passengers. 

You are absolutely right in that the 30 - 50% figures related to EBITDA and not what most people would consider a break even point

 

However it is the point at which the cruise line starts to lose less money running the cruise then not 

 

As such I think it does represent the point where the cruise is viable but not profitable 

 

 

[npcl]

51 minutes ago, york survey said:

You are absolutely right in that the 30 - 50% figures related to EBITDA and not what most people would consider a break even point

 

However it is the point at which the cruise line starts to lose less money running the cruise then not 

 

As such I think it does represent the point where the cruise is viable but not profitable 

 

 

More important to a cruise line at this point is when they have a ship sailing, so they can say to their customers that they are back operating, go ahead and book cruises and send us your money. Make money/lose money on a cruise at this point does not matter.  

[upwarduk]

12 hours ago, york survey said:

So the hottest tip of all (for Celebrity) would be a start in September with Apex from Southampton. Southampton is the only Europe port that gets enough local passengers to make the cruise viable, Apex is still in the ship yard in Saint Nazaire so any adjustments could be done quickly

Itinerary? Possibly only a Round Britain cruise.

At the moment, Gov.UK still has an advisory in place, against Foreign Travel for any reason, so I doubt too many people would consider driving to the port, if the ship sailed to foreign countries. Although Spain is opening up for tourism, they are not willing to take visitors from UK, as our infection rate is still too high.

Starting 8th June, people coming into UK have to provide an address where they will need to isolate in quarantine for 14 days. A fine of £1000 in England if they are found breaking this. 

Who is going to go on a foreign holiday, to take a further 14 days off work on their return?

Edited June 9, 2020 by upwarduk