Which ships (and classes) are most likely to go as scheduled?

[drrich2]

From what I'm hearing on You Tube, odds of cruising restarting in March aren't good, but there's an outside chance it can. We already know that in the near-term future, cruises over 7 days are a no-go. Ships have to be in U.S. waters, become eligible to do test cruises, get CDC approval...and so...whenever cruising 'really' resumes, April, May, June, etc...I'm curious as to which ships will likely go as schedule.

 

The other big issue is whether RCI will cancel and reschedule ships, or 'trade ships' (bring another in to do the itinerary), for cruises currently scheduled even if cruising restarts before they're due.

 

We have an early July Symphony of the Seas cruise booked out of Florida. From what I recall, some think whenever cruising resumes in the U.S., it's probably start out in Florida. A massive Oasis-class ship may allow for some social distancing, and carry enough passengers at reduced capacity to hopefully turn some modest profit? 

 

So, what are you guys thinking about the cruise schedule past the point things begin restarting? Do you think the odds are better...

 

1.) Oasis-class > smaller ships? Any particular size class best (or worst) positioned?

2.) Do you think they'll keep to the current schedule as much as possible (which I think, to minimize disruption), or do considerably shuffling (e.g.: your cruise is on a different ship, same port, hopefully same days)? 

3.) Do you think ships based out of some ports (even within Florida) are more likely to restart before others? Miami, Fort Lauderdale, etc...?

4.) How much itinerary disruption do you anticipate? In my case, we're planning Costa Maya, Cozumel, Roatan and CocoCay. Mexico's been pretty accommodating to U.S. tourists. Wonder what the Roatan odds are? 

 

There's been such a focus on when cruising will restart; I'm curious about how it'll restart when transitioning back. Thanks for your thoughts. 

[firefly333]

I would think July out of florida has a good chance. They have specifically said miami and port Canaveral will probably be first two ports to open. Idk where you leave from.

[Ourusualbeach]

Everything is unknown.

 

even tje CEO recently stated that their plans on returning to sailing now that the vaccine has started to be rolled out will be different from wha5 they were planning 2 months ago.

[yogimax]

The best answer is that there is no answer at this time.

[bigrednole]

And FL is not vaccinating front line workers, they are vaccinating prisoners instead. That pretty much tells you where cruising will stand. July is a possibility as is June. I don't think anything before that will happen.

[Kokomo91165]

The priority ships are Navigator and Mariner for Bahamas sailings.  Then presumably other scheduled Caribbean ships out of Florida....Symphony & Independence come to mind.

 

Main question is when.  March and April aren’t going to happen. May ,at least for one ship, but realistically it will be June.  So July will be a close call.  My hope is Symphony will be prioritized for sure due to the premium she is commanding and the space she provides.  I’m booked as well middle of July.  

[renza]

1 hour ago, bigrednole said:

And FL is not vaccinating front line workers, they are vaccinating prisoners instead. That pretty much tells you where cruising will stand. July is a possibility as is June. I don't think anything before that will happen.

Where r u getting your information. Yes front line workers are getting vaccinated. My husband got his and I can as well. 65 and older can get it now as well. I live in Palm beach Florida. 

[bouhunter]

No.  One.  Knows.

[orville99]

1 hour ago, bigrednole said:

And FL is not vaccinating front line workers, they are vaccinating prisoners instead. That pretty much tells you where cruising will stand. July is a possibility as is June. I don't think anything before that will happen.

Not True. That may be what governor of New York is proposing (along with recovering drug addicts), but in Florida, the next group in line behind front line health care workers is seniors over the age of 65. My wife (66) and I (72) just got our first dose this morning, and we don't even know where the closest prison is in Florida.

 

[Sunshine3601]

It is not only the question of when cruises will start sailing but what ports in Bahamas, Caribbean, etc. will be open for cruise ships.      

I'm done guessing and will just wait and see.    Hopefully the vaccines will be game changers, for the good!

[Sail n Snow]

1 hour ago, Sunshine3601 said:

It is not only the question of when cruises will start sailing but what ports in Bahamas, Caribbean, etc. will be open for cruise ships.      

I'm done guessing and will just wait and see.    Hopefully the vaccines will be game changers, for the good!

I think it will be like the some airlines and you’ll need to be vaccinated before the cruise. 
 

This will limit the risk of an outbreak and allow the cruise lines to go to countries that have ports of call and tell them everyone on board is vaccinated and hopefully allow cruises to resume at a quicker pace. 

 

They will start with the newer ships as they have a lower break even point and put as many back into service as they can.  The first goal I would want it to break even for the fleet and then work on profit. 

 

https://www.*****.com/2020/05/21/royal-caribbeans-newer-ships-break-even-quicker-older-ships

[gatour]

4 hours ago, bigrednole said:

And FL is not vaccinating front line workers, they are vaccinating prisoners instead. That pretty much tells you where cruising will stand. July is a possibility as is June. I don't think anything before that will happen.

You are incorrect.

 

Based on prior comments by the RCCL, Miami, Port Everglades and I think Port Canaveral.  In regards to where the cruises go and how long they last is a bit more open.  Right now the indicators are no more than seven days.  I imagine the first few cruises will be 3-4 night cruises as they work through implementing/testing the policies.

 

I imagine the Oasis class ships will be the first to go.  Even at reduced passenger load they can spread the fixed operating cost (staff, like officers etc) over more people, plus they are cheaper to operate in regards to fuel burn.

[bouhunter]

17 hours ago, bigrednole said:

And FL is not vaccinating front line workers, they are vaccinating prisoners instead. 

What a sad and uninformed post.  Couldn't be more wrong.

Edited December 31, 2020 by bouhunter

[drrich2]

16 hours ago, Sail n Snow said:

I think it will be like the some airlines and you’ll need to be vaccinated before the cruise. 

Down the road that may well be. I question how likely that is to be in place by July, for example. While different states are prioritizing groups a bit differently, front-line healthcare workers and nursing home residences are high priority, as as advanced elderly and those with high risk medical conditions. While prisoners aren't the most sympathy-garnering group, considering their environment they are high risk. Looking at vaccine supplies and projected approvals (today in a professional e-mail read Astrazena/Oxford's is likely to get U.S. approval in April 2021), and I don't think vaccine trials with kids have started yet? At least not that I've heard. 

 

A t.v. article from Dec. 28 I'll post some snippets from:

 

“There are roughly 250 million Americans who are 18 years and older. According to Stack, there will be potentially enough doses of the two vaccines to immunize around 50 million Americans by March 1. Therefore, around 1 in 7 people in the country will have access to the vaccine between now and March.”

 

That's anticipated to have access, not will have completed it. From there I imagine roll out will continue to ramp up strongly, but cruises where every adult has been vaccinated against COVID-19 are a long way off. 

 

 

[ReneeFLL]

23 hours ago, bigrednole said:

And FL is not vaccinating front line workers, they are vaccinating prisoners instead. That pretty much tells you where cruising will stand. July is a possibility as is June. I don't think anything before that will happen.

Where do you get your news from? A Cracker Jacks box? Of course they are vaccinating front line workers. Quit spreading lies.

Edited December 31, 2020 by ReneeFLL

[yogimax]

21 hours ago, orville99 said:

That may be what governor of New York is proposing (along with recovering drug addicts)

Please stop the New York bashing.  This is simply not true.  This is what the governor said...

 

"The first allocation is for nursing home residents, nursing home staff and high-risk health care workers."

 

This is absolutely the case as my SIL is an FDNY Lieutenant who has been assigned to the vaccination process for EMT workers.

[orville99]

1 hour ago, yogimax said:

Please stop the New York bashing.  This is simply not true.  This is what the governor said...

 

"The first allocation is for nursing home residents, nursing home staff and high-risk health care workers."

 

This is absolutely the case as my SIL is an FDNY Lieutenant who has been assigned to the vaccination process for EMT workers.

Unless they’ve changed the acronym, NY’s OASAS facilities are Drug Rehab facilities, OPWDD and OMH are for the developmentally disabled,and they (both staff and residents) are clearly in Phase One. BTW, my son is a forensic psychologist with OASAS.

Phase One

The first New Yorkers to receive the vaccine as part of Phase 1 will be:

• High-risk hospital workers (emergency room workers, ICU staff and Pulmonary Department staff)
• Nursing home residents and staff
• Federally Qualified Health Center employees
• EMS workers
• Coroners, medical examiners and certain funeral workers
• Staff and residents at OPWDD and OMH facilities
• Staff at New York State OASAS facilities

The priority populations will expand the week of December 28, 2020 to include:

• Urgent Care Center employees
• Individuals administering COVID-19 vaccines, including local health department staff
• Residents of OASAS facilities

Edited December 31, 2020 by orville99

[Hoopster95]

21 hours ago, Sail n Snow said:

They will start with the newer ships as they have a lower break even point and put as many back into service as they can.  The first goal I would want it to break even for the fleet and then work on profit. 

 

^This

 

20 hours ago, gatour said:

I imagine the Oasis class ships will be the first to go.  Even at reduced passenger load they can spread the fixed operating cost (staff, like officers etc) over more people, plus they are cheaper to operate in regards to fuel burn.

 

^This also.

 

It was reported here on this forum months ago (I believe it was a quarterly report or SEC filing??) that Fein mentioned Oasis ships can "break even" at around 30% occupancy whereas other classes need about 50%. I wonder what "other" classes he means? I wonder what the break even would be of a Freedom Class and a Vision Class for example?

 

I agree that Oasis Class may be the first to get going... but...

 

On 12/30/2020 at 12:23 PM, yogimax said:

The best answer is that there is no answer at this time.

 +1

 

23 hours ago, bouhunter said:

No.  One.  Knows.

and +2

[suzyluvs2cruise]

2 hours ago, yogimax said:

Please stop the New York bashing.  This is simply not true.  This is what the governor said...

 

"The first allocation is for nursing home residents, nursing home staff and high-risk health care workers."

 

This is absolutely the case as my SIL is an FDNY Lieutenant who has been assigned to the vaccination process for EMT workers.

 

It's not New York bashing....it's sharing what Gov Cuomo is saying

Governor: Drug addicts in rehab facilities will be part of next round to get COVID vaccine

Edited December 31, 2020 by suzyluvs2cruise