Let's speculate: Europe 2021 Cruises

[srpilo]

9 minutes ago, iancal said:

We are aware of many airlines that are cancelling and/or consolidating flights.  Airlines do not fly empty planes unless there is another reason to do such as protecting spots at certain airports.

 

Moreover, my understanding is that airline schedules 90 days are certainly not firm.  We have been looking at international flights but we are aware that flights are tentative.

 

9 minutes ago, iancal said:

 

 

Airlines were not the point, but since.....

I GAURANTEE you after a US carrier takes your money in the USA for a future flight they will 100% of time offer you some acceptable replacement to your travel plans, whether on their flights or another airline and provide the service you originally paid for... 100% of the time. Hence the "obligation" which WAS the point.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by srpilo

[KirkNC]

44 minutes ago, kazu said:

People on our roll call are using flexible air with points or HAL’s flight ease (flexible) as that can be cancelled before final payment.  We are booking our hotels with refundable (cancel without penalty) rates and any tours that require a deposit have been pencilled in and payment won’t be made until 3 months out (the tour operator actually recommended this).  Most of my tours do not require a deposit.

 

I am hopeful our cruise and land travel pre-cruise can go as planned in November and things improve greatly by the spring/summer (if not sooner).

 

In any case, we are hopefully planning and not sitting on the side lines.  

 

We do want to be vaccinated before we sail and we don’t want to be restricted to HAL tours.  Like cruisemom42, we have our own ideas of what we would like to do in our ports 😉 and HAL’s tours don’t offer anything that matches our planning.

I do think they is a great time to use FlightEase.  It’s usually a very competitive price and has the cancellation flexibility.  I have had less success getting back points.  I used my Chase Sapphire Reserve card for a planned July Iceland trip.  The airline cancelled the flight and I am still waiting to get my points back.

[kazu]

1 minute ago, KirkNC said:

I do think they is a great time to use FlightEase.  It’s usually a very competitive price and has the cancellation flexibility.  I have had less success getting back points.  I used my Chase Sapphire Reserve card for a planned July Iceland trip.  The airline cancelled the flight and I am still waiting to get my points back.

 

Agree on Flight Ease, Kirk.  I used my Aeroplan points (Air Canada loyalty point program) and they do permit cancellation.  I had my points back within 24 hours of cancellation.  I am using their Flex flights for our upcoming flights - it costs more point wise but I have totally flexibility to cancel or change without any worries.

Sadly in these times there is so much uncertainty for planning every 10 months away that it makes one cautious.

Good luck with your points being returned.  If it makes you feel any better, I just heard yesterday from my travel insurance after 8 months and am now awaiting my $$ to arrive in the mail. 

[bennybear]

It’s been a mess, travel wise.  And unless one has a crystal ball who knows how this will unfold for sure.  We can all be hopeful and if we wish we can  make plans we can cancel.   There is a lot of time and energy that goes into those plans.  Our cancelled Tahiti,  took hours to organize cruise, flights and hotels, tours etc.  As did our Greece trip,  so for now we wait. 
 

The difficulty comes from the work needed to cancel,  all airlines and cruise lines are not equal in how things are handled.   We are still not able to get taxes and fees paid back for flights an airline cancelled.  So then we enter the land of expiring credits, sigh! 
 

On a positive note we had European friends on a European cruise this fall who could only do ships tours.  They like us are used to doing independent tours,  but the cruise line did provide interesting small group tours at fair prices so they were pleasantly surprised.  

[Mickb]

As you may know - most of the European countries are in yet another lock down which realistically will probably last until early March. There are very differing rates of vaccination - as of today France has given 500, Italy 100000 and the UK 1.3m, although this will obviously ramp up. At the moment, I would think it extremely unlikely that Mediterranean/European cruising will start properly before July. Although you may have had a vaccine, it is as yet unknown as to whether you can still infect others. I suspect cruise ships with a thousand or so passengers will not be welcome until this is resolved. Also the attitude that some segments of the population in the US have taken to the virus could make the European authorities wary, although I am sure that the cruise lines will work really hard to obviate this.

Zaandam and Volendam are still sitting idle in Torbay and I worry that, the longer this goes on , the more in doubt their future in HAL looks. Still maybe Fred Olsen will pick them up which would be great for the UK market and prolong their sailing life. They are such beautiful ships.

[Horizon chaser 1957]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

It will depend on the particular country's focus.

 

The vaccines have not yet been proven to stop or reduce transmission of the virus, only to lessen severity of infection/illness. 

 

With that in mind, countries with a focus on preventing spread of infection within their population may well decide not to allow tourists from countries where the infection rates are still quite high. I'm thinking of countries like Australia, New Zealand, and some Asian countries where infection rates are almost non-existent. But other countries could still take that decision if they feel the risk is high.

 

Alternatively, if the country already has a high level of COVID spread/infection, they may not care as much about virus spread as about ensuring that the number of cases do not overwhelm available health care resources. That is where vaccination may help -- if there is confidence that most people vaccinated will not require intensive care.

 

In my opinion, it's still too early to tell which way things will go in 2021.

 

 

 

Exactly. Every country will have their own timelines and priorities. Some will open, but some may not. Some may be eyeing the CDC’s ‘cruise control’ date of November 1, and looking to open to cruise tourism at that point.
Just like the cruises operating in foreign waters just before the pandemic was officially declared, cruises operating before the pandemic is officially declared over will need to be flexible.

[Mandalay1903]

1 hour ago, bennybear said:

Well said,  we’re waiting too but are concerned that the Westerdam is now in the Pacific.  So hard to plan, especially when one thinks it will be cancelled.  We would prefer 2022 as well! 

Thank you. I'm not so worried about the Westerdam being in the Pacific. I think it's there, along with several other HAL ships, to get its health plans accepted by the CDC.  HAL seems to be centralizing this process for a number of its ships at the Port of San Diego. I am sure a number of other lines are doing the same at other ports such as Fort Lauderdale, Miami, etc.

 

[kazu]

3 hours ago, bennybear said:

There is a lot of time and energy that goes into those plans.  Our cancelled Tahiti,  took hours to organize cruise, flights and hotels, tours etc.  As did our Greece trip

 

Totally agree with you, bennybear.  

And it’s a depressing job undoing all the plans.  I had to undo 2 cruises and land tours worth when covid hit.

When I booked my November cruise I thought there was enough time for the vaccine and some sense of normalcy to return to the world. I’m starting to wonder with how things are going but praying that vaccine distribution and vaccination into arms will increase substantially and time will make the difference.  

We can only wait, pray and hope.

[bennybear]

19 hours ago, kazu said:

When I booked my November cruise I thought there was enough time for the vaccine and some sense of normalcy to return to the world. I’m starting to wonder with how things are going but praying that vaccine distribution and vaccination into arms will increase substantially and time will make the difference.  

I truly hope that is the case for you.  
 

Our next cruise in Europe is booked for May, so finally payment is next month, but we are seriously doubting that it will be a go with the situation in Europe.   Hope HAL will make a decision soon!  

[Mandalay1903]

Looks like Europe 2022 itineraries are posted on the HAL website.

[ssawjo]

We have a cruise on the Westerdam from Barcelona to Venice leaving on July 13, 2021.  I have this sinking feeling that it will not go as scheduled.  Final payment is April 14.  I don't have a lot invested yet and I do not have any flights reserved.  Not worried about a hotel.  

 

The other issue is that from Venice we are flying to Prague on July 24 to start a river cruise (Prague is a land tour connected with the river cruise).  The river cruise itself starts on July 28.  Final payment is May 3.  Have not heard anything from AmaWaterways about what they are planning on doing.

 

Looking for some opinions as to what to possibly expect.  

 

Thank you and stay healthy,

 

Bill and Kathi

[iancal]

We were tentatively planning a Europe land trip for September and October.  No reservations-just planning. 

 

Not doing anything on this tentative trip anymore.  If it happens we can leave on a few days notice but it seems pointless to do any more planning at this point in time.  We will reconsider in July/Aug.

 

The problem as we see it is the continued covid crisis compounded by the anticipated slow vaccine rollout-on both continents.  Neither give us cause for optimism.

Edited January 6, 2021 by iancal

[HALrunner]

Well Friends, this was fun while it lasted! I truly did enjoy reading all of your thoughts! Unfortunately both of our Europe 2021 cruises were just cancelled by HAL. For those of you still sailing, I'll keep my fingers crossed for you!

[bennybear]

Looks like ours is cancelled too,  although we haven’t received the notice yet.  I am assuming they were waiting until 2022 itineraries were out to make these cancellations. 

[VMax1700]

I reckon the only HAL ship sailing in Europe in 2021 will be Rotterdam and probably restricted to European citizens until the trans Atlantic cruise.

(I say this having just last week,  booked her for a September Baltic cruise)

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, bennybear said:

  I am assuming they were waiting until 2022 itineraries were out to make these cancellations. 

 

Good observation -- hadn't thought of that but I bet you're right.

 

[DeeDee Groff]

On 1/6/2021 at 12:21 PM, bennybear said:

I truly hope that is the case for you.  
 

Our next cruise in Europe is booked for May, so finally payment is next month, but we are seriously doubting that it will be a go with the situation in Europe.   Hope HAL will make a decision soon!  

 

Received an email from HAL on Tuesday that the June 7 sailing on the Westerdam RT Venice was cancelled, I saw the FCC for double the deposit on the HAL website under My Account Wednesday night, the TA called Thursday afternoon and cautioned me again cancelling the July 1 Westerdam sailing from Venice to Barcelona "until closer to the time of final payment" because if HAL cancels, then I'll receive another FCC for double the deposit, and I booked two Volendam cruises for the spring and summer of 2022 in Europe on Tuesday--and HAL accepted the FCC on the June 7 cancelled sailing in lieu of the deposit on the first newly booked cruise.  I'm hopeful that I'll be able to sail on both of these recently booked Volendam itineraries!

[iancal]

It would not surprise us if, over the next eight weeks as FY2020 financials are released and forward looking estimates are predicted, that there will be more cruise ship retirements/disposals by Carnival Corp and by RCI.

[VMax1700]

One thing to bear in mind is that Europe is not doing well in the vaccination rosters.

Seems to be going slow all over Europe. (Excepting UK which is only geographically in Europe and is doing better than most.)

If the populations are not vaccinated then governments will not open the countries to tourists.

[KirkNC]

48 minutes ago, iancal said:

It would not surprise us if, over the next eight weeks as FY2020 financials are released and forward looking estimates are predicted, that there will be more cruise ship retirements/disposals by Carnival Corp and by RCI.

At some point the well will be dry.  Not sure who would buy a cruise ship right now.  More may end up beached in Turkey.

Edited January 8, 2021 by KirkNC

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, KirkNC said:

At some point the well will be dry.  Not sure who would buy a cruise ship right now.  More may end up beached in Turkey.

If ships are being used as collateral for loans, I do not see how they could either be sold or beached.

[KirkNC]

25 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

If ships are being used as collateral for loans, I do not see how they could either be sold or beached.

True, not sure if all the ships are being used, if not they can always substitute collateral to free one up if necessary.

[drowelf]

On 1/4/2021 at 8:38 PM, KirkNC said:

Hard to say as CC is a small yet vocal part of the cruise community.  I think Caribbean and Alaska cruises it maybe less critical as you have more cruise newbies.  I am not one who believes the industry wants to control the excursions just for the money, I think it is based on medical and scientific recommendations.  I am hopeful that required ship excursions will be one of the first protocols to be punted.

Have to agree here with Kirk. Ship only excursions is the deal breaker for us too. Also we want vaccines to be mandatory, but I think that is a given for near and mid-term travel in the world. I believe the industry is going to have to control the excursions in the short term, but this is going to be a requirement by the local health officials for each port. As for Masks on the ship we are a bit more concerned about that. Its not something I or the DW would like. Whether its a deal breaker is something we have not made a decision on as yet. Our first cruise is Feb 2022, so we have quite a while to go before we have to make that decision. Hopefully cruising will get under in mid-2021 and things will be much clearer about protocols by 4th Quarter once many cruises have already sailed and everyone gets some confidence about the protocols and how wide spread vaccine distribution has progressed. 

[drowelf]

3 hours ago, KirkNC said:

At some point the well will be dry.  Not sure who would buy a cruise ship right now.  More may end up beached in Turkey.

Another good point. I think that we are going to see a pause in new builds for a while too. Ships already on the stocks will be completed, but how many new builds are going to be initiated over the next 3-5 years will be interesting to watch. 

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

On 1/6/2021 at 3:16 PM, VMax1700 said:

I reckon the only HAL ship sailing in Europe in 2021 will be Rotterdam and probably restricted to European citizens until the trans Atlantic cruise.

(I say this having just last week,  booked her for a September Baltic cruise)

You might be correct ..