Is it worth booking a cruise now? when would it be likely they go ahead?

[mashisback]

I booked a couple of cruises last year in hope... both to be as predicted, cancelled.

 

Now i have given it about 8 months since my last one was cancelled... and i cant wait much longer :)

 

I was thinking of booking a Europe cruise out of UK for August.. is that likely to go ahead?

 

What are peoples views on when the cruises will be back up and running?

I have deliberately been avoiding keep checking the latest cruise news as it was easier to forget about cruising for a while :(... but now im back considering it, is there a timetable they have set or aiming for?

 

Thanks in advance 

[SelectSys]

43 minutes ago, mashisback said:

I was thinking of booking a Europe cruise out of UK for August.. is that likely to go ahead?

 

 

That is on the ragged edge of feasibility in terms of sailing I would think.  Maybe a few limited options will exist but nothing like what was previously considered a normal year.

 

43 minutes ago, mashisback said:

What are peoples views on when the cruises will be back up and running?

 

Looking more like 2022 is when we will see the cruise lines coming back with something looking like a regular sailing schedule.

Edited January 12, 2021 by SelectSys

[mom says]

Consider that Celebrity just axed their European and TA cruises for this year. That should tell you something. Next year is more likely.

[ColeThornton]

The only answers you will get is based on speculation and hope.  Don't give any of your money to any line until plans are concrete.  Some will disagree with me but they are mostly the same people who think every month now is the month they will be sailing.  🙂

[SelectSys]

3 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

Don't give any of your money to any line until plans are concrete

 

While I haven't done it personally, I can see some logic in putting down a deposit for 2022 cruises.  My speculation is that prices will spike once travel resumes more generally.  

[middlehaitch]

31 minutes ago, mom says said:

Consider that Celebrity just axed their European and TA cruises for this year. That should tell you something. Next year is more likely.

 

Only the Edge and Constellation European cruises and TA's were cancelled today. The Apex, Infinity, and S class are still sailing in Europe. Of course this could change in the future. 

 

 

Cheers, h

[NantahalaCruiser]

27 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

While I haven't done it personally, I can see some logic in putting down a deposit for 2022 cruises.  My speculation is that prices will spike once travel resumes more generally.  

I recently cancelled a July 2021 Alaskan cruise and replaced it with a July 2022 cruise at a 31% price increase; so some of the spike has already occurred.

 

Would have been about a 40% increase if I had not switched from R to NR.

Edited January 12, 2021 by NantahalaCruiser

[navybankerteacher]

9 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

While I haven't done it personally, I can see some logic in putting down a deposit for 2022 cruises.  My speculation is that prices will spike once travel resumes more generally.  

It is really a matter of the odds involved and size of the wager you want to make.  How much of a price increase do you anticipate vs. the outside possibility of losing your deposit in a worst case scenario, and the best case likelihood of the itinerary you pick actually sailing.

[NantahalaCruiser]

2 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

It is really a matter of the odds involved and size of the wager you want to make.  How much of a price increase do you anticipate vs. the outside possibility of losing your deposit in a worst case scenario, and the best case likelihood of the itinerary you pick actually sailing.

Good point.  My above switch from July 2021 to July 2022 was done with retention of only a $200 per cabin deposit from a prior on-board booking.  The low deposit also drove my decision to book a NR fare at about $600 pp less than a R fare since the potential downside loss of my deposit was only one sixth of the price difference.

[SelectSys]

5 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

It is really a matter of the odds involved and size of the wager you want to make

 

Of course and whether the wager represents a material sum of money to you.

[clo]

26 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

the outside possibility of losing your deposit in a worst case scenario,

Is that that the cruise line goes broke?

[SelectSys]

28 minutes ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

I recently cancelled a July 2021 Alaskan cruise and replaced it with a July 2022 cruise at a 31% price increase; so some of the spike has already occurred.

 

Would have been about a 40% increase if I had not switched from R to NR.

 

Thanks for providing a data point to support my speculation.  Maybe others will respond as well with what they are experiencing in terms of pricing.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Is that that the cruise line goes broke?

That would be the likeliest cause for you to completely lose your deposit.

[clo]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

That would be the likeliest cause for you to completely lose your deposit.

It can also be a struggle to get it.

[sanger727]

I don't think anybody "knows". But for us personally we have decided against cruising in 2021. Too much chance of cancellations and major itinerary changes. And even when they do start up I am anticipating it will be a very different experience and we don't want to test that out. Everything I've seen is that if a single covid case makes it onboard, the rest of the cruise is quarantined in their cabins and immediately returns to port. No thanks. 

[clo]

49 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

I don't think anybody "knows". But for us personally we have decided against cruising in 2021. Too much chance of cancellations and major itinerary changes. And even when they do start up I am anticipating it will be a very different experience and we don't want to test that out. Everything I've seen is that if a single covid case makes it onboard, the rest of the cruise is quarantined in their cabins and immediately returns to port. No thanks. 

We're waiting for 9/22 for the same reasons as you. Let it all - hopefully - shake out. 

[navybankerteacher]

5 minutes ago, clo said:

We're waiting for 9/22 for the same reasons as you. Let it all - hopefully - shake out. 

There are several reasons for waiting before rushing to book a cruise:

a) The itinerary might be cancelled, leaving you with the hassle of getting your deposit credited/returned.

b) The first cruises - if they do sail - are likely to have un-cruise-like conditions: masks. distancing, limitations on shore activity, etc. (who needs that?).

c) The first cruises to actually sail may well be very costly due to the price hikes already cited. Prices are likely to stabilize once the dust settles. 

d) Many of your fellow passengers are likely to be the nut-jobs seen on these posts who express determination to get on the first itineraries to sail (and, who needs to be on a shipload of loony toons?).

[clo]

5 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

There are several reasons for waiting before rushing to book a cruise:

 

We've actually already booked but it's identical to one we canceled for this year. At the same fare. But, yeah, I hear ya and agree with ya (uh oh, conspiracy!). And, yeah,  no loony toons please. 

[mashisback]

Thanks guys... i will crawl back under the rock i stayed in towards the end of 2020. The general view and feelings are nearly identical to that i was hearing in April/May last year so i can see from this i would just be repeating the pointless process of booking to be cancelled at a later date.

 

To be fair, Royal Caribbean was perfect when it comes to refunding and communication so that probably wouldn't have put me off the risk... but im still recovering from the stress of trying to recover 3k from virgin atlantic!

 

I shall book a nice caravan holiday in the uk for this year i think... save the stress and money for next year.

 

Thanks all!

[wowzz]

Even if cruising restarts in Europe,  the need for mask wearing on board,  social distancing,  no meeting other pax, plus no independent trips ashore, would put me off booking a cruise at this stage.

We've got a March 2022 cruise booked on P&O,  and I'm not even confident that will go ahead!

[wowzz]

57 minutes ago, mashisback said:

I shall book a nice caravan holiday in the uk for this year i think

Which we did last year. Devon was lovely, if a bit chilly at nights in late September,  although I would rather have been on our cancelled Canaries cruise! 

Booked a lodge in Pembrokeshire this May, to compensate for our cancelled Baltics cruise.

Edited January 13, 2021 by wowzz

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, wowzz said:

Even if cruising restarts in Europe,  the need for mask wearing on board,  social distancing,  no meeting other pax, plus no independent trips ashore, would put me off booking a cruise at this stage.

We've got a March 2022 cruise booked on P&O,  and I'm not even confident that will go ahead!

I think your estimate is in the ballpark.  We are now thinking of an Oceania sailing from NY to

St. George and Hamilton, Bermuda (no use for the Dockyard tourist trap nor the floating malls that go there) - for July 2022 -- but booking will wait until the magic 8 Ball starts to show a clearer picture,  

[paul929207]

We have one trip for November, 2021, another for January 2022 and a third for July 2022. Our deposit is fully refundable. As we have done for the past year, as we approach final payment, we evaluate conditions and decide whether to cancel. So far we have canceled all.

 

We will get our first vaccine shot on Friday and the the other in a few weeks. That will tic off another condition for cruising.

[wowzz]

There is an informed 'insider' on one of the UK cruising sites, who is of the opinion that a sensible restart date [as discussed at a corporate level] would be December 2021. That would give sufficient time for mass vaccination programmes to be carried out in most countries likely to be visited by cruise ships, a certain amount of herd immunity to be developed, and, if necessary, an additional tranche of vaccinations for those most at risk.

Seems pretty sensible to me, and with regards to cruising from the UK, pretty realistic, given that previously the government here have been accused of being overly lax, so they will be in no rush to lift the ban on cruising. 

[evandbob]

This question has been asked many times previously, and all the optimistic answers from other posters have been proven wrong.

 

No reason to think this thread will be any different.  As Warp Speed became Molasses Drip, it's probably best to temper estimates of successful vax efforts.  The 20 million vaxxed by Dec 31, 2020 turned out to be only about 1.5 million.  Two weeks into 2021 and we've reached maybe 13 million.  It's a deep hole to play catch up from.

Edited January 13, 2021 by evandbob