How likely are hurricanes in October?

[Sun Lover]

We are looking into possibly booking an Eastern Caribbean route on Wonder of the Seas on October 8, 2023.  We've never cruised that time of year and I just read that October is a bad month for hurricanes.  Would we be taking a pretty big chance cruising this route in October? I always thought August and September were the worst hurricane months but after what I read, maybe I was wrong.  Anyone who has experience that time of year, could you tell me what your experience was.  Thanks.

[BND]

We've done mid-Oct once with no issues.  We've done many early Nov with no hurricanes either.  No one can predict the weather this far out.  Even when there are hurricanes, where they are and when is random.  Why worry?  They reroute ships if needed.  32 cruises, half in Oct/Nov, three in July and never had a hurricane during any of them.  Our worst weather was actually in March returning to Baltimore.  Three low pressure systems in the Atlantic that caused 30 foot waves for 18 hours.  You just can't worry about it.  Hurricane season is 6 months out of every year.

[rudeney]

We've always cruised in October and never had an issue with hurricanes.  We've had a few cruises with rough seas, but luckily never missed a port.  Chances are very low that a hurricane would impact your cruise.

Edited July 9, 2022 by rudeney
I can't type worth a crap!

[BirdTravels]

2 hours ago, Sun Lover said:

We are looking into possibly booking an Eastern Caribbean route on Wonder of the Seas on October 8, 2023.  We've never cruised that time of year and I just read that October is a bad month for hurricanes.  Would we be taking a pretty big chance cruising this route in October? I always thought August and September were the worst hurricane months but after what I read, maybe I was wrong.  Anyone who has experience that time of year, could you tell me what your experience was.  Thanks.

Mid-August to Mid-October is peak hurricane season (with September 10th as the peak). We had a cruise on the Anthem to Bermuda on 9/23 divert due to two hurricanes. 

[twangster]

October is still within hurricane season.  It isn't peak hurricane season and historic trends will reveal where most October storms go and how intense they are.   Despite historic trends there is always the chance that an October storm doesn't follow the normal October patterns.  With falling ocean temperatures October doesn't tend to be a month with the most impact from tropical systems but anything is always possible.

 

July and August are also well within hurricane season yet they represent the peak of cruise vacation months.  Most cruises in hurricane season operating on schedule.  December through March isn't part of hurricane season at all yet it's very common for more waves and swell from winter storms making the water rougher at times.

 

If your goal is sail with the least possible chance of some motion in the ocean then October isn't a bad month to cruise.  Avoid winter cruising for this goal.  If your goal is to make every port of call with no possibility of an itinerary change then cruising might not be the best way to accomplish that goal.  

[iuki]

I always felt that early October is just as risky as September.  The later part of October is less risky.  I always booked during the earliest and latest times during hurricane season. 

[Coralc]

They happen. No way to tell. Our anniversary is in October. Many years ago, our West Coast Mexican Riviera cruise ended up going to San Francisco, CA for two nights because of a hurricane that hit all three Mexico ports. 

[LinRon3]

we try and do an October cruise, but later in the month.  Michael and Mathew were both October hurricanes in recent years [if I remember]...but in the first weeks of October.  We were on the old Carnival Victory (now radiance) and Mathew chased us back to Canaveral.  And Wilma, again if I remember, was a November hurricane.  So, I agree with some comments here, except for September [which is peak] and perhaps late august and early October,  it's really just pot luck.  They can happen any time.  With the storm season in the Caribbean being six months [june thru november], it's sort of something a cruiser has to live with [and hope for the best].  Distribution curve max's out in September though.  The cruise ships can usually outrun and navigate away anyway.  

[LinRon3]

2 minutes ago, LinRon3 said:

we try and do an October cruise, but later in the month.  Michael and Mathew were both October hurricanes in recent years [if I remember]...but in the first weeks of October.  We were on the old Carnival Victory (now radiance) and Mathew chased us back to Canaveral.  And Wilma, again if I remember, was a November hurricane.  So, I agree with some comments here, except for September [which is peak] and perhaps late august and early October,  it's really just pot luck.  They can happen any time.  With the storm season in the Caribbean being six months [june thru november], it's sort of something a cruiser has to live with [and hope for the best].  Distribution curve max's out in September though.  The cruise ships can usually outrun and navigate away anyway.  

Oh, and something else, as a rule of thumb when we book, if early in storm season or even peak, storms tend to cross the atlantic from africa toward the lesser antilles, cuba, and bahamas...so we like to book western caribbean.  Later, say october on, storms tend to start up around Yucatan area so we book to the east.  This is nothing written in granite of course and each season has its own character [last 2 years, the gulf has been hit hard].  But the seasons often have 'patterns'...unfortunately one after another repeating close courses.   Seems that way anyway after living in Florida for more decades than I want to admit.  

[ourfamilylovescruising]

our anniversary is October 16th, so we have cruised a lot in October and have had many hurricanes

lucky for us we just have to change ports, have never not been able to get on a ship because of one 

ships can outrun a storm, but your ports may change so if your dead set on the ports maybe pick a different date

we just took a cruise on the explorer June 25th to go to Aruba well because of a storm going there we ended up in Jamaica 

[time4u2go]

[Luckynana]

We've done a couple of cruises in October and November.  We only encountered a Hurricane on one of those cruises.  We did have to miss our first Port, which happened to be Key West.  The Hurricane followed us...they usually don't head West, but it did this particular year (I believe it was around 1999).  I I discovered "Sea Bands" which worked very well for me.  I don't travel without them.  We also almost always book mid-ship.

Don't stress over this.  It is what it is, and as others have said, the Captain has this all under control!!

Go and have the best time!!!!!🛳️

[topnole]

11 hours ago, Sun Lover said:

We are looking into possibly booking an Eastern Caribbean route on Wonder of the Seas on October 8, 2023.  We've never cruised that time of year and I just read that October is a bad month for hurricanes.  Would we be taking a pretty big chance cruising this route in October? I always thought August and September were the worst hurricane months but after what I read, maybe I was wrong.  Anyone who has experience that time of year, could you tell me what your experience was.  Thanks.

Historically Sept is the busiest.   Aug and October are similar and nearly tied for second.  I think I’ve seen historically yearly averages of 5+ for Sept and 3+ for Aug and Oct.   It obviously varies a lot.  Early Oct would be statically more likely than late October.  

[Sea Dog]

We always cruise in October to celebrate our wedding anniversary. The past 3 have had no issues. Of course anything can happen but we will continue to sail every October.

[PTC DAWG]

I’ve sailed in September 5-6 times no issue…they won’t sail right into a hurricane if one is around. 

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

14 hours ago, Sun Lover said:

We are looking into possibly booking an Eastern Caribbean route on Wonder of the Seas on October 8, 2023.  We've never cruised that time of year and I just read that October is a bad month for hurricanes.  Would we be taking a pretty big chance cruising this route in October? I always thought August and September were the worst hurricane months but after what I read, maybe I was wrong.  Anyone who has experience that time of year, could you tell me what your experience was.  Thanks.

• Michael in 2018: hit central Florida panhandle near Mexico Beach as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds
• Opal in 1995: hit western Florida panhandle near Pensacola as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds
• Isbell in 1964: hit the southwest coast just south of Marco Island with 115 mph winds
• King in 1950: hit the southeast coast near Miami with 105 mph winds
• Unnamed hurricane in 1944: hit southwest coast near Port Charlotte with 120 mph winds

2012`s Hurricane Sandy is prime example of a monster storm that can wallop the East Coast north of Florida. Sandy ranks as the second-costliest hurricane to ever hit the U.S., with a price tag of more than $68 billion.

The other three major hurricanes that have hit the U.S. in the last century in October were Wilma in 2005, Hilda in 1994, and Hazel in 1954.
 
Wilma hit the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula before turning towards the northeast. It crossed the southern part of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane with gusts over 100 mph and spawned ten tornadoes. Wilma set the record for lowest central pressure (882 mb, previously 888 mb) as well as fastest pressure drop (88 mb in 12 hours, previously 48 mb in 12 hours).

Hilda made landfall in south-central Louisiana with 115 mph winds, and Hazel hit near the North Carolina-South Carolina border with 140 mph winds and caused major wind damage all the way up the Appalachians.
 
Texas has seen only 2 hurricane hits in October from 1900 to 2000: Jerry in 1989 and an unnamed storm in 1912.
 

[Diver2014]

We've been through enough hurricanes and tropical storms to know not the book a cruise or make any major plans from August thru October. 

[John&LaLa]

9 hours ago, LinRon3 said:

we try and do an October cruise, but later in the month.  Michael and Mathew were both October hurricanes in recent years [if I remember]...but in the first weeks of October.  We were on the old Carnival Victory (now radiance) and Mathew chased us back to Canaveral.  And Wilma, again if I remember, was a November hurricane.  So, I agree with some comments here, except for September [which is peak] and perhaps late august and early October,  it's really just pot luck.  They can happen any time.  With the storm season in the Caribbean being six months [june thru november], it's sort of something a cruiser has to live with [and hope for the best].  Distribution curve max's out in September though.  The cruise ships can usually outrun and navigate away anyway.  

 

Mathew disrupted the fall shedule for months. All our eastern routes became westerns

[zebra]

The only time we have been directly impacted by a hurricane whilst being onboard ship was during Hurricane Sandy when it made landfall in New Jersey on Oct 29th, 2012. We were in Boston Harbor and started feeling the storm impact shortly after. We were on the Jewel scheduled to leave that day on a repositioning cruise to Florida but instead stayed in Boston Harbor for 2 days while the slow moving storm was battering the area. We were being pushed against the dock 24/7 by 2 tug boats and didn't feel any movement on the ship, even tough the tug boats would get totally submerged by huge waves and then just rise up again ...... amazing to watch. We obviously had no access to outdoors and EVERYTHING had been removed from the outer decks. The storm raged around us, small boats/yachts piling up on top of each other but we felt entirely safe inside the ship. 

[flamingos]

Late season hurricanes *tend* to be in the Gulf, but obviously there have been a few that didn't pay attention to that.  🙂   Book the trip.

[Homosassa]

OP, you live in upstate NY. What are the chances that you will have a major snowstorm in any given week in snow season?

 

It is the same for tropical systems in hurricane season.

 

It can happen and just hope for the best.

[watcher_62]

On 7/9/2022 at 6:45 AM, time4u2go said:

[DukeASUGirl]

Our kids' Fall Break is always the first week of October, and we haven't had any issues, nor have friends of ours who have cruised during those same weeks (both Atlantic and Pacific).

 

We did have to reroute (swapped the order of sea day and port day) once in Western Caribbean in August, but it was fine. The ships will reroute if need be.

[loman]

We typically cruise in September , have one coming up soon. 

Never had an issue ... yet 🙂

The ship will avoid any nasty weather if it has to.

I would rather be on a ship than an island if a hurricane approaches.

The island cant move out of the way .

Enjoy your cruise.

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

September and October cruises are a bit lower in cost. We cruise 4-5 times a year and ALWAYS cruise during hurricane season. Since 1994 once cruise was cancelled because of a hurricane. Another  cruise. When we returned my son asked how was the hurricane. I replied what hurricane. Must have sailed around it. The cruise was beautiful and so was the weather.