Time to watch rcl stock again

[firefly333]

I searched for the old thread and cant find it, so starting a new thread. Stocks are how I support myself. I'm very conservative in my approach but after 50 years I have a spidey sense. I'm early I'm sure but its pricking finally.

 

We broke below 90 this morning. I have been posting my buys and sells just as proof as afterwards it's easy to claim. Sold 104 and did a short sell before that. 

 

Back in nibbling this morning, but the chart finally is back into the 80s, imo closer to where it seems like a fair value. I wanted to be back in before nov 1 earnings which of course will be very good again. 

 

Nibbled just to have my 100 shares back, next buy I'm thinking 86 if we keep dropping. Those who have so much money they dont care where they buy dont need to reply. Just posting for those of us who love stocks and their chart action. I get it most of you dont care, maybe a few besides me also love stocks. Need to buy before nov 1. Free yahoo site below to follow the action. ..though I also have my own site up watching size of blocks on the bid sand sell side.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCL?p=RCL&.tsrc=fin-srch

 

 

[firefly333]

Wiped out all those GTC at 89, then 88, ... hasnt found support.

 

 

[mattg43]

Thanks for the heads up.  It's down below 87 now.  Wonder why it's tanking. 

 

I sold mine when it hit $109 from a $38 cost basis.

[Biker19]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

I searched for the old thread and cant find it, so starting a new thread.

Do a title limited search for "stock"

 

[MCC retired]

18 minutes ago, mattg43 said:

Thanks for the heads up.  It's down below 87 now.  Wonder why it's tanking. 

 

I sold mine when it hit $109 from a $38 cost basis.

It is October . A notably bad month for stocks.

[neverbeenhere]

Why it's tanking...Coming back to the reality of buckets of debt.

[yogimax]

12 minutes ago, neverbeenhere said:

Why it's tanking...Coming back to the reality of buckets of debt.

Also...

1.  General trend of martket is significantly down.

2.  Interest rates continue to rise.

3.  Price of oil increasing.

[grandgeezer]

Stock price is based on what the market thinks the product will do in the future, not what it’s doing now or in the past. About 74% of RCL stock is owned by institutional investors who buy stock to make money, not just a token obc. Keep that in mind when deciding to buy or sell. If the obc is a good enough reason to own it, stand pat. As easy as that.

[firefly333]

Oil has been holding around 90 for a while. So saying all the sudden institutions woke up this morning and said well I dont like oct and oil is too high is a excuse. Just watch the charts. I called 86 at open this morning. Institutions were dumping for unknown reasons. They said last month sept is a bad month too. This sell off was the largest percentage wise and to me of big  price. 

 

I'm buying here and if we go lower I'll buy more lower too. 

 

Institutions dont just all get together and say we dont like oct let's sell rcl. 

 

Last aug when I flipped some 6 month treasuries only 6 month was above 5.5%, now the 1 year is also above 5.5%. Buyers now think rates wouldnt drop in the next 12 months. Or very little. 

 

Mortgages were 7.08% that day in august, no fed rate hikes but I see 30 year showing 7.62% on CNBC right now. 

 

Volatility fear level very high. 

 

Strikes and wage hiked are scaring traders that wageflation coming. Wages will push inflation higher. Oil they are discounting per economist, but wages pushing us now. 

 

Call it whatever reason makes you happy, but imo institutions sold this morning. Wasnt some little traders. I call it collusion when they all do it together. Time for me to buy when there is fear. 

[orville99]

56 minutes ago, mattg43 said:

Thanks for the heads up.  It's down below 87 now.  Wonder why it's tanking. 

 

I sold mine when it hit $109 from a $38 cost basis.

Sold ours at ~$105, but purchased them at $11 and plowed all of the dividends back into the stock until we divested. Made more in dividends than the mythical shareholder discount was ever worth (with all the strings attached, it was virtually impossible to use). Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use. I make more from the idle cash (4.5%APR) in my brokerage account every month

[orville99]

18 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Stock price is based on what the market thinks the product will do in the future,

Not necessarily what the the product will do in the future per se, but what the impact of the product activity on the bottom line will look like down the road. I would imagine that RCL has quite a large tranche of debt acquired at historically low interest rates that is maturing and will either need to be re-funded at much higher rates or retired (and RCL may not have the CoCE to be able to do that).

[firefly333]

3 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Sold ours at ~$105, but purchased them at $11 and plowed all of the dividends back into the stock until we divested. Made more in dividends than the mythical shareholder discount was ever worth (with all the strings attached, it was virtually impossible to use). Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use. I make more from the idle cash (4.5%APR) in my brokerage account every month

That was part of my argument back when people were posting how it was the best ever earnings and worth over $100. .. ignoring they cut the dividend and took on a bunch of debt.

 

I think also people are waking up to interest rates are rising even though fed skipped sept. I'm not sure how much non fixed rate debt rcl has. I'd be interested to know. 

 

I just wanted people to have a heads up today, institutions I'm sure were selling this morning, buyers coming back in. If I dont document what I say someone later will say easy to call later.

[mattg43]

12 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use. I make more from the idle cash (4.5%APR) in my brokerage account every month

 

The shareholder benefit is OBC and it's very easy to get. We got back to cruising this past Jan and easily applied it to 3 cruises.  One of which is in Oct 2024 and I'm no longer a shareholder. 

 

I'm getting 4.3% from a savings account with PNC on cash.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

This feels like the set-up for Dumb Money 2. LOL.

[grandgeezer]

56 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Not necessarily what the the product will do in the future per se, but what the impact of the product activity on the bottom line will look like down the road. I would imagine that RCL has quite a large tranche of debt acquired at historically low interest rates that is maturing and will either need to be re-funded at much higher rates or retired (and RCL may not have the CoCE to be able to do that).

What’s the difference in my saying in the future and you calling it down the road?

 

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

Sold ours at ~$105, but purchased them at $11 and plowed all of the dividends back into the stock until we divested. Made more in dividends than the mythical shareholder discount was ever worth (with all the strings attached, it was virtually impossible to use). Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use. I make more from the idle cash (4.5%APR) in my brokerage account every month

I get $200 OBC every cruise just be sending an email

[firefly333]

Listening and of course watching. Imo what I think freaked out large holders is interest rates. I knew inflation wasnt under control, the fed was pressured to wait because banks were teetering on the edge who didnt hedge and bought low rate long term treasuries and lent money out so low. 20 banks sid to still be in trouble. They need to keep raising or agree to live with higher inflation. 12 members of the fed said another rate hike this year. 

 

Bunches of bankers and media been trying to sell a bill of goods  nonsense talking about rate cuts trying to lure the unwary into buying. Watch the numbers not what talking banking heads are saying. There is a reason banks went under, they werent smart. 

 

Mohammed A el .. is the only economist I trust, doesnt get political. The rest are buy and dump with something to push.

 

[orville99]

1 hour ago, mattg43 said:

 

The shareholder benefit is OBC and it's very easy to get. We got back to cruising this past Jan and easily applied it to 3 cruises.  One of which is in Oct 2024 and I'm no longer a shareholder. 

 

I'm getting 4.3% from a savings account with PNC on cash.

Before RCL suspended its dividend, I was earning more in dividends annually than the value of the shareholder discount had I been able to use it on my annual cruises.

 

when they eliminated the ability to combine the SHB with any other promo, it became essentially worthless to us.

[orville99]

17 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

I get $200 OBC every cruise just be sending an email

Only if you chose not to try to combine it with any other promo or discount.

[orville99]

23 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

What’s the difference in my saying in the future and you calling it down the road?

 

None, I was just pointing out that it is not the product performance that determines future value, but the bottom line.

[not-enough-cruising]

Just now, orville99 said:

Only if you chose not to try to combine it with any other promo or discount.

I book group rates, much better pricing and terms than anything Royal offers directly

[orville99]

2 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

I book group rates, much better pricing and terms than anything Royal offers directly

Too many unpleasant outcomes with group rates during my career to ever go down that road with my $$.

 

At least on a cruise ship they can’t walk my client across town to a different ship.

Edited October 3, 2023 by orville99

[Tlbecker1]

26 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Only if you chose not to try to combine it with any other promo or discount.

I have never not received my shareholder benefit on a cruise.

[firefly333]

59 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Only if you chose not to try to combine it with any other promo or discount.

I have never once had a issue combining it with next cruise obc, group rate, D+ balcony discount and DP340.

 

Not once been turned down.

 

@Ourusualbeachhas confirmed elsewhere it is combinable. 

 

I dont gamble so not speaking of casino rates but I've combined it over 20 times closer to 30 since covid and never had a issue. 

[orville99]

3 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I have never once had a issue combining it with next cruise obc, group rate, D+ balcony discount and DP340.

 

Not once been turned down.

 

@Ourusualbeachhas confirmed elsewhere it is combinable. 

 

I dont gamble so not speaking of casino rates but I've combined it over 20 times closer to 30 since covid and never had an issue. 

Then they have significantly changed the rules since we divested our shares to pay off our mortgage back in 2014, because back then the SHB was not combinable with any other promotion. Regardless, we earned significantly more by reinvesting our dividends, which is the only reason I would ever purchase a stock.