RCL Stock

[Baron Barracuda]

1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

Techs are tanking and a closed down cruise line go up. Isn't the market awesome?

CDC memo telling states they should be ready to distribute vaccine on 11/1 drove all travel stocks higher even in face of broader market selloff.  

[CTCruiser76]

Think its time to buy back in, with the reports of crew returning.......

[LXA350]

13 hours ago, CTCruiser76 said:

Think its time to buy back in, with the reports of crew returning.......

 

It's still a long way to go, likely still opportunities to get the share cheaper than current levels.

[Dennis#1]

15 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

CDC memo telling states they should be ready to distribute vaccine on 11/1 drove all travel stocks higher even in face of broader market selloff.  

 

47 minutes ago, LXA350 said:

 

It's still a long way to go, likely still opportunities to get the share cheaper than current levels.

RCL stock will most likely fall if there is not a proven successful vaccine until 2021?  Could the Nov. 1, 2020 announcement be based on politics and the November 3rd election?

[chipmaster]

16 hours ago, CTCruiser76 said:

Think its time to buy back in, with the reports of crew returning.......

 

Buy high sell low, you do realize that the cash burn continues and the re-start will actually increase cash burn with less cash coming in.  Yes for a while the bookings will bump a bit, but if you look out in time people have booked a lot of cruises.

 

Nothing changes the balance sheet, fewer ships, lower capacity, lower revenue / cruise, but look at overall market "irrational exuberance"   a good time to gamble, dont' get burned if you can't watch yourself lose 5% in a day and 20% in a week 😉

[CTCruiser76]

48 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Buy high sell low, you do realize that the cash burn continues and the re-start will actually increase cash burn with less cash coming in.  Yes for a while the bookings will bump a bit, but if you look out in time people have booked a lot of cruises.

 

Nothing changes the balance sheet, fewer ships, lower capacity, lower revenue / cruise, but look at overall market "irrational exuberance"   a good time to gamble, dont' get burned if you can't watch yourself lose 5% in a day and 20% in a week 😉

Excellent points....I will stem my enthusiasm - for now.

Edited September 5, 2020 by CTCruiser76

[A&L_Ont]

18 hours ago, CTCruiser76 said:

Think its time to buy back in, with the reports of crew returning.......

Perhaps, but if it was me I’d sell before the ship literally sets sail. Or at least sell enough to cover a potential loss.  

 

2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Buy high sell low, you do realize that the cash burn continues and the re-start will actually increase cash burn with less cash coming in.  Yes for a while the bookings will bump a bit, but if you look out in time people have booked a lot of cruises.

 

Nothing changes the balance sheet, fewer ships, lower capacity, lower revenue / cruise, but look at overall market "irrational exuberance"   a good time to gamble, dont' get burned if you can't watch yourself lose 5% in a day and 20% in a week 😉

Fully agree. To top that off, if ships start to sail and then go on hold again because of Covid it should/could look like a full repeat of the mid March stock prices. 

Edited September 5, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[LXA350]

5 hours ago, Dennis#1 said:

 

RCL stock will most likely fall if there is not a proven successful vaccine until 2021?  Could the Nov. 1, 2020 announcement be based on politics and the November 3rd election?

 

You hear from lots of scientists around the world and also from the WHO that a reliable vacination will be available not before middle of next year, hence I somehow trust such comments more than all those Sputnik, Chinese or the statement with November 1st which sounds very "fake" news style for the sake of the elections.

[sfaaa]

On 8/30/2020 at 7:13 PM, yogimax said:

Realized or unrealized - it's still a loss.

Not according to IRS or your bank account.

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, LXA350 said:

 

You hear from lots of scientists around the world and also from the WHO that a reliable vacination will be available not before middle of next year, hence I somehow trust such comments more than all those Sputnik, Chinese or the statement with November 1st which sounds very "fake" news style for the sake of the elections.

 

I will add more fuel to the FUD, it is possible that any of the vaccines that launch early could be effective, but you won't know till middle of next year.  So there are two cases outcomes one of the first will work but we won't know.. to be so unclear as to time/criteria is a outrage to what leaders and organizations should be doing.   

[Biker19]

Donna Hrinak joined Royal Caribbean Group as senior vice president of corporate affairs.

 

Hrinak, former corporate vice president, The Boeing Co., and president, Boeing Canada, Latin America & Caribbean, will lead the Group's government relations, communications and public relations functions. She brings vast experience in global regulatory policy, multicultural negotiations, coalition leadership and international business transformation to augment Royal Caribbean's government affairs team. 

 

'As a global company touching every continent, we are used to making our way in a complicated world. But these last few months have reminded us, more than ever, just how challenging that world is,' Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain said. 'Donna will provide her decades of experience in navigating the complexities of regulatory and cultural ecosystems to enable us to continue to build and maintain strong, collaborative relationships with countries and organizations everywhere we operate.'

 

Faciltating communication with broad array of stakeholders

Reporting directly to Fain, Hrinak will provide counsel and facilitate communication among a broad array of stakeholders, including port authorities, coastal community leadership, government representatives, environmental advocates, scientific and marine leaders and others.

 

'As with other industries I've represented, thoughtful and respectful travel promotes economic development, multicultural understanding and global perspective for all entities involved,' Hrinak said. 'I look forward to assisting Royal Caribbean Group strengthen its business position throughout the world.'

 

Hrinak has designed and led strategies to confront an increasingly complicated global regulatory environment and guided executives in evaluating the business, political and economic risks involved in global operations. She has worked collaboratively with a range of international coalitions and agencies, including the World Health Organization. 

 

PepsiCo, Kraft Foods, US ambassador

 

Prior to Boeing, Hrinak held executive positions in global, Latin American and European public affairs at PepsiCo and at Kraft Foods. In addition, she served as US ambassador to Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia and the Dominican Republic during the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations.

[John&LaLa]

13 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

 In addition, she served as US ambassador to Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia and the Dominican Republic during the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations.

 

Cronyism at it's finest😉🤣🤣

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Cronyism at it's finest😉🤣🤣

A bit unusual to serve under both sides of the aisle.

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

A bit unusual to serve under both sides of the aisle.

 

That is odd, i wonder which ones cost more

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

 

That is odd, i wonder which ones cost more

It's not necessarily the person's individual donation that makes the diff, but overall contribution - many donors bundle other's money.

[John&LaLa]

Just now, Biker19 said:

It's not necessarily the person's individual donation that makes the diff, but overall contribution - many donors bundle other's money.

 

Awesomeness 

 

Gotta love our system

[John&LaLa]

Seems like RCL is in an inverse relationship to the Dow lately

[yogimax]

On 9/5/2020 at 9:00 AM, LXA350 said:

 

It's still a long way to go, likely still opportunities to get the share cheaper than current levels.

Just remember that folks on cruise Critic are not experts, simply fans of RCL.  Buyer beware!

[John&LaLa]

34 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Just remember that folks on cruise Critic are not experts, simply fans of RCL.  Buyer beware!

 

In this climate, no one is an expert. 

Stock movement doesn't make any sense

Just gambling now

[yogimax]

2 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

In this climate, no one is an expert. 

Stock movement doesn't make any sense

Just gambling now

All the more reason not to give much credence to the experts on this board.

[frank808]

 

In this climate, no one is an expert. 

Stock movement doesn't make any sense

Just gambling now

Going so high for all cruise stocks does not make any sense right now. I had some buy limits since april that have not hit. Instead of prices going down, with no income coming in, the cruise lines stocks are going up.

 

Stock rising makes no sense to me. Glad I got to buy a bunch in march when cruise stocks tanked. Had to buy bargain priced shares of RCL, CCL and NCL.

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[Biker19]

 

Cruise bookings for the Royal Caribbean Group are improving, according to a company SEC filing.

 

"Our bookings for 2021 have continued to improve over the last two months, although still below pre-COVID-19 levels," the company said. "Pricing for 2021 bookings is relatively flat year-over-year when including the negative yield impact of bookings made with future cruise credits; it is slightly up year-over-year when excluding them. We have implemented various programs to best serve our booked guests providing the choice of future cruise credits (“FCCs”) or the opportunity to “Lift & Shift” their booking to the same sailing the following year in lieu of providing cash refunds." 

 

Also announcing a $1 billion capital raise on Tuesday, the company said that as of September 30, 2020, it had liquidity of approximately $3.7 billion, including $3.0 billion in the form of cash and cash equivalents and a $0.7 billion commitment for a 364-day term loan.

 

"Our cash burn rate for the third quarter was consistent with our previously announced range of approximately $250 million to $290 million per month during a prolonged suspension of operations, when excluding cash refunds of customer deposits, commissions, cash inflows from new and existing bookings and fees and collateral postings related to our financing and hedging activities," the company announced.

 

"In response to the financial impacts of COVID-19, we have taken preemptive actions that focus on strengthening liquidity through significant cost and capital expenditure reductions, cash conservation and additional financing sources."

 

Reduced Operating Expenses

• significantly reduced ship operating expenses, including crew payroll, food, fuel, insurance and port charges;
• further reduced operating expenses as ships are currently transitioning into various levels of layup with several ships in the fleet transitioning into cold layup;
• eliminated or significantly reduced marketing and selling expenses for the remainder of 2020;
• reduced and furloughed the company's workforce, with approximately 23% of its U.S. shoreside employee base being impacted; and
• suspended travel for shoreside employees and instituted a hiring freeze across the organization.

"We may seek to further reduce our average monthly expenses under a further prolonged non-revenue scenario," the company said. "This includes consideration of additional vessels heading to cold layup as well as further assessment of our U.S. shoreside workforce, including those coming back from furlough".

 

Reduced Capital Expenditures

Since the start of February 2020, Royal Caribbean said it had identified approximately $4.4 billion of capital expenditure reductions or deferrals in 2020 and 2021. 

[bobmacliberty]

At a burn rate of $250M per month, they'll go through their $3B in a year.  That gives them some breathing room, but not a lot.  That's the first that I've read that they have some ships going into cold layup.  Do we know which ones?  I wonder who came up with the term "further prolonged non-revenue scenario"?

[twangster]

"Reduced marketing" yet I just received a big colorful heavy stock fold out Celebrity brochure in the mail yesterday like everything is normal.  I had already explored several potential X itineraries online so after a quick glance it went in the trash.  

Edited October 14, 2020 by twangster

[Baron Barracuda]

5 hours ago, bobmacliberty said:

At a burn rate of $250M per month, they'll go through their $3B in a year.  That gives them some breathing room, but not a lot.  That's the first that I've read that they have some ships going into cold layup.  Do we know which ones?  I wonder who came up with the term "further prolonged non-revenue scenario"?

$0.3B of the $1.0B in new money will repay other debt maturing next month.  RCL has a further $1.3B of debt maturing in 2021 that will have to be repaid or refinanced.  That's above and beyond the $250mm/mo cash burn.

 

Note that while the 2.65% interest rate on the new 3 year notes is same as that on the maturing ones the new notes are convertible into common stock at roughly $82/sh.  

Edited October 14, 2020 by Baron Barracuda