Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[MicCanberra]

4 minutes ago, lyndarra said:

Diamond passengers were kept on board until assessed. When released would they have then been considered evacuees and not part of Japan's population? Ruby's were just released into the general population.

Will Zaandam's victims be included in US numbers?

That may be true but the case remains they were in Japanese waters when Covid was found on board.

[DiamondFour]

1 minute ago, Vader1111 said:

I'm not questioning how the virus got on board the ship.  I'm questioning why the virus spreads so much faster, infecting far more passengers, on Princess ships - in comparison to the other cruise lines.

It spreads because it is highly contagious and found its way on the ship. The chances are that the ships that are not infected did not have any cases of the virus at all. At the moment the USS Theodore Roosevelt has a major outbreak among the crew. All ships are confined spaces and close contact with infected people will allow it to spread.

 

That aside it is not ships I am worried about being incubators.

 

Lets put conspiracy theories aside. The big niggling question on my mind is could this be a form of bio terrorism. It is scientific fact that this could be done. Viruses can be cultivated in labs and converted into aerosols to release in public places. They are very hard to trace or even prove as the virus once released like that would mutate of its own accord and infect others from transmission. What you would see in a bio terrorist attack is large clusters around the world were the viral agent is released with community transmission spreading randomly based on travel and contact. The only way to spread a virus on purpose and to get away with it would be to find a natural virus in nature (the coronavirus) and find a zoonotic host to infect. Lab mice are one examples. The virus would grow in their cells and spread and become highly concentrated. Once you have enough infections you get all the infected mice and convert it into an aerosol. Something like this would give a terrorist a two week head start and evade authorities. It would be extremely difficult to prove. Granted that this new virus is one that naturally occurs in nature but that is also extremely concerning. Once a wild virus is found it can be weaponised. Take smallpox for example. Although eradicated there are two living samples of the virus left in the world that we know of. One is in a lab in USA and the other is in a lab in Russia. The Chinese have been known to be trading bats and pangolins since at least the 1820's. They have caused viruses before and it is well known that the mixing of these animals cause viruses. All it would take is a dedicated terrorist with the funds and means to duplicate a virus in nature to cause world wide havoc and what better place to release it first than a market that trades such animals. You could do it and get away with it. The other concerning thing is that the wuhan institute of virology is only 12km from the wet market where this virus is said to have originated. That institute specialised in the study of coronaviruses and since its opening in 2015 had a habit of letting animals escape.

 

Now I do not want to scare anyone with the above information and I will not indulge in conspiracy theories about politicians or sinister intents of other countries to sabotage others. The fact is we have seen something unprecedented with the shutdown of entire world travel and a wild virus that is in large clusters around the world.

 

You ask why Princess ships. One might also ask why Italy, why Spain -  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - why are there extreme cases in some countries and not others.

 

If you want to fact check my information then it is easily done online looking at scientific papers on viruses that predate 2019 to get an unbiased view. 

 

If you are wondering why I am bringing this up it is because if in the tiniest chance this is bio terrorism, it is inevitable that the truth will come out and things will return to normal. There will be a cure and vaccine for this virus. That is a guarantee. Ask any Doctor and medical specialist and they will tell you with confidence that there will be a vaccine.

 

I am sorry if this is scary but I think in times like this we need to be on high alert. I think we need information like this out there to reinforce social distancing and staying at home. By doing this we can defeat the virus. If it is bio terrorism then staying at home will defeat it.

[Pushka]

I think it's quite reasonable for the statistics to be determined by the "origin" if known. It helps everyone keep tabs on community spread as opposed to Traveller from US, China, Cruise ships and the like. God knows what they will determine the baggage handlers at Qantas to be. Adelaide is almost closed - how did they get to pick it up, poor people. 
 

Wasn't Italy's main downfall the massive soccer crowd a few weeks ago? 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Pushka

[LittleFish1976]

38 minutes ago, Vader1111 said:

You do have to wonder why the infection numbers on Princess ships are so much worse than any other cruise line.  There were 700+ on Diamond Princess, and 400+ on Ruby Princess.  The next worst that I'm aware of is Ovation of the Seas, with 80 known infections.  Ruby Princess was only one of four ships, and five cruises, to arrive in Sydney with infected passengers.  Ruby had more infections than the other four cruises combined.

 

What are Princess doing wrong, that the virus spreads so much more on their ships than those of any other cruise line?

 

I know it is said that the first person to introduce the virus to Diamond Princess was an older man, I believe resident in Asia, who disembarked in HK but as for other Princess cruises, I wonder if they perhaps have more US-based passengers who were flying straight to their cruises and introducing the virus to the ships that way.

 

One reason I decided not to travel on a local (Sydney to NZ) Cunard cruise in mid-Feb/early March was that I could see from Cruise Critic chat that there were passengers flying in from the US to join that particular cruise and I assessed that that was an unacceptable risk to me. The US has had this for longer than they are admitting.

 

Anyway, it's one theory as to why Princess ships.

 

 

[LittleFish1976]

Just now, Pushka said:

I think it's quite reasonable for the statistics to be determined by the "origin" if known. It helps everyone keep tabs on community spread as opposed to Traveller from US, China, Cruise ships and the like. God knows what they will determine the baggage handlers at Qantas to be. Adelaide is almost closed - how did they get to pick it up, poor people. 

 

From the bags of infected passengers, I guess. And even if they wore gloves, if they touched the work-side of the gloves with their hands while taking them off and didn't immediately wash their hands they could become infected that way. Or if they touched clothes or anything else that they would later touch with their bare hands. An illustration of just how very contagious this virus is and that it can be easily picked up from surfaces. It is also well transmitted via the air and stays in the air for 2 or 3 hours.

[lyndarra]

Conspiracy theory reminds me of Dan Brown's "Inferno".

[Pushka]

30 minutes ago, LittleFish1976 said:

 

I know it is said that the first person to introduce the virus to Diamond Princess was an older man, I believe resident in Asia, who disembarked in HK but as for other Princess cruises, I wonder if they perhaps have more US-based passengers who were flying straight to their cruises and introducing the virus to the ships that way.

 

One reason I decided not to travel on a local (Sydney to NZ) Cunard cruise in mid-Feb/early March was that I could see from Cruise Critic chat that there were passengers flying in from the US to join that particular cruise and I assessed that that was an unacceptable risk to me. The US has had this for longer than they are admitting.

 

Anyway, it's one theory as to why Princess ships.

 

 

I strongly believe the virus was introduced by travellers from the US arriving into Australia and then on cruise ships. At that time there was very little testing for it in the States.  There was also a group of US travellers who brought the virus into the Barossa Valley in SA and most  of their group was positive. The rest were put into immediate quarantine, however two US people decided to escape and travelled via the Eastern states back to the USA. Unforgivable. Another Swiss? group were also responsible for spread in country SA. 

[Blackduck59]

Where the virus was carried from is not really relevant, there could have been any number of entry points and any number of unsuspecting travelers including Australians. Each country has their patients zero which were joined by others because the virus is so contagious. We will probably never be able to trace the path of this outbreak, even though it would be helpful with efforts to contain it. There is a very good quote from a movie "Don't fix the Blame, fix the problem" probably better to work on that.

Cheers 

[Aus Traveller]

11 minutes ago, Pushka said:

I strongly believe the virus was introduced by travellers from the US arriving into Australia and then on cruise ships. At that time there was very little testing for it in the States.  There was also a group of US travellers who brought the virus into the Barossa Valley in SA and most  of their group was positive. The rest were put into immediate quarantine, however two US people decided to escape and travelled via the Eastern states back to the USA. Unforgivable. Another Swiss? group were also responsible for spread in country SA. 

Agreed. There could have been infection resulting from the Hillsong Conference in Sydney for the two weeks prior to the Ruby Princess departure on 8th March. Thousands of people flew in from overseas (most likely USA) to attend the conference.🙂

[Pushka]

36 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

Agreed. There could have been infection resulting from the Hillsong Conference in Sydney for the two weeks prior to the Ruby Princess departure on 8th March. Thousands of people flew in from overseas (most likely USA) to attend the conference.🙂

Oh. That was THAT group. Interesting. 

[LittleFish1976]

35 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

Where the virus was carried from is not really relevant, there could have been any number of entry points and any number of unsuspecting travelers including Australians. Each country has their patients zero which were joined by others because the virus is so contagious. We will probably never be able to trace the path of this outbreak, even though it would be helpful with efforts to contain it. There is a very good quote from a movie "Don't fix the Blame, fix the problem" probably better to work on that.

Cheers 

 

Just to be clear, my comments, above regarding from whence it came, were made in response to ruminations on the question of 'Why Princess ships in particular?'.

 

There's blame, which is a futile exercise, and then there's looking for evidence and reasons which can be put to good use in tracing infection routes and possibly avoiding similar mistakes or oversights by authorities in the future.

 

[LittleFish1976]

2 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Oh. That was THAT group. Interesting. 

 

And apparently sat cheek-by-jowl, in their thousands, hugging for days on end.

[DiamondFour]

To stop the virus you need to cut it off at its source. Tracing it is logical. It just means that if the virus on Ruby Princess did come from Americans then they would have been infected before coming here which indicates that the chinese took it there very early in the year for it to infect them in great numbers.

 

Assuming its not bio terrorism then the only blame game we should be talking about is shutting down those wildlife markets or a blanket ban on citizens from countries that operate and run them from visiting our country and vice versa would be the only solution to prevent this from happening again. In short if china continues to let illegal wet markets operate then a blanket ban on all citizens from china coming to our country and a blanket ban on our citizens going to theirs until the markets are shut down would be the only solution. I am aware it is not just china that has these markets so there would have to be a list of countries excluded from ours.

 

This is not Americas fault. They were lied to by a foreign power just as we were. They were blissfully unaware that this was happening until it was too late. Their current leadership leaves a lot to be desired with a persona rubbing shoulders with dictators opposed to taking a hard-line no nonsense stance would have helped. US intelligence had reported that this was a significant problem early on. I do not blame Americans. I feel sorry for them and fear for what they have to endure. Their population is greater than ours and more dense so unlike us who are few and far between it is going to be extremely tough on America in the coming months and I can only hope they pull through.

[LittleFish1976]

10 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

To stop the virus you need to cut it off at its source. Tracing it is logical. It just means that if the virus on Ruby Princess did come from Americans then they would have been infected before coming here which indicates that the chinese took it there very early in the year for it to infect them in great numbers.

 

Assuming its not bio terrorism then the only blame game we should be talking about is shutting down those wildlife markets or a blanket ban on citizens from countries that operate and run them from visiting our country and vice versa would be the only solution to prevent this from happening again. In short if china continues to let illegal wet markets operate then a blanket ban on all citizens from china coming to our country and a blanket ban on our citizens going to theirs until the markets are shut down would be the only solution. I am aware it is not just china that has these markets so there would have to be a list of countries excluded from ours.

 

This is not Americas fault. They were lied to by a foreign power just as we were. They were blissfully unaware that this was happening until it was too late. Their current leadership leaves a lot to be desired with a persona rubbing shoulders with dictators opposed to taking a hard-line no nonsense stance would have helped. US intelligence had reported that this was a significant problem early on. I do not blame Americans. I feel sorry for them and fear for what they have to endure. Their population is greater than ours and more dense so unlike us who are few and far between it is going to be extremely tough on America in the coming months and I can only hope they pull through.

 

Conspiracy theories can also point in the other direction.

 

T wanted more than anything to mess with that large Asian country's economy, I seem to recall...

 

And this is one of those occasions where  'more numerous' is more appropriate than 'greater' but I would let your other adjective pass. 😉

 

 

[in rod we trust]

you would be lucky to get on a cruise ship in the next 2 years . that's if they can remain afloat and don't go bust .

 

if our gov took this serious in early feb  closed all borders and cruise ships to all non citizens , put all incoming returning citizens in Christmas island or Darwin or in some hotels under security, went hard on the population quarantined all those who had it under guard we would of been thru this by now ..  the way we are going about it now it will take at least 12 -18 months unless a vaccine comes out.  considering its a unknown virus and the lies from china from all the other viruses they have had, they should of known better ..  right now the only way to contain it now is a full lockdown needed for 6 to 8 weeks  only the very essentials allowed and some exemptions .  other wise its just going to keep spreading .  there is no proof or testing on herd immunity , nobody yet knows if you build a immune to it or if you cannot catch it twice..   so on that note I doubt there will be any cruising for at least 2 yrs or until a vaccine is out .. they way the gov is going about it now is wrong as it will just keep on going around and around , they were better of shutting down loose a bit now but would of come out better in all ways .. if we go for 12-18 months the country will be broke , people will loose there homes, .. as they say the storm is upon us but the tornado is coming 

 

and this will be my last post in the aus and nz section .   the cruise industry has done the damage to themselves and I see no way the terminal will go ahead with all the hatred they have against them now im still going to lay the boot it while there down tho.   .. so you may all better come to terms that cruising in Australia will not happen for at least min 2ys 

[MicCanberra]

11 minutes ago, in rod we trust said:

you would be lucky to get on a cruise ship in the next 2 years . that's if they can remain afloat and don't go bust .

 

 so you may all better come to terms that cruising in Australia will not happen for at least min 2ys 

I think you are wrong, as bad as it sounds, this virus will affect most of us within a year anyway, either through contraction or via the vaccine, so cruising will resume within 9 months, (most likely with age restrictions though and serious health testing first).

Heard it here.

[Vader1111]

2 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

I don't know, but it is an interesting question. Do more people go to the shows and sit close together in the theatre?? Do more people use the lifts?? Is it the age demographic most often found on Princess ships compared with other lines ??

 

We have all seen the housekeeping crew constantly wiping down handrails and other surfaces people touch, and these measures always increase if their is there is Noro on board and recently with the chance of covid-19.

 

My conclusion is that I do not have one. 🙂

Princess do attract an older demographic than Royal Caribbean, but there are barely any non-retired cruisers on any ship sailing in March, which is when CV-19 hit the Australian cruises.  Ruby & Ovation were both doing NZ cruises, so we're comparing apples with apples.  It's not as if Ruby was on one of Princess' "floating nursing home" 2-3 month long cruises.

 

Ovation of the Seas holds around 4900 passengers when full.  That's 40% more passengers than Ruby Princess, yet Ovation "only" had 80 passengers infected with CV-19.  40% more passengers, 20% as many infections.  Why?

 

Don't worry - I'm not expecting you to come up with an answer.  It's a question which the health authorities should be asking Princess, not cruise enthusiasts such as you and I.

[DiamondFour]

21 minutes ago, in rod we trust said:

you would be lucky to get on a cruise ship in the next 2 years . that's if they can remain afloat and don't go bust .

 

if our gov took this serious in early feb  closed all borders and cruise ships to all non citizens , put all incoming returning citizens in Christmas island or Darwin or in some hotels under security, went hard on the population quarantined all those who had it under guard we would of been thru this by now ..  the way we are going about it now it will take at least 12 -18 months unless a vaccine comes out.  considering its a unknown virus and the lies from china from all the other viruses they have had, they should of known better ..  right now the only way to contain it now is a full lockdown needed for 6 to 8 weeks  only the very essentials allowed and some exemptions .  other wise its just going to keep spreading .  there is no proof or testing on herd immunity , nobody yet knows if you build a immune to it or if you cannot catch it twice..   so on that note I doubt there will be any cruising for at least 2 yrs or until a vaccine is out .. they way the gov is going about it now is wrong as it will just keep on going around and around , they were better of shutting down loose a bit now but would of come out better in all ways .. if we go for 12-18 months the country will be broke , people will loose there homes, .. as they say the storm is upon us but the tornado is coming 

 

and this will be my last post in the aus and nz section .   the cruise industry has done the damage to themselves and I see no way the terminal will go ahead with all the hatred they have against them now im still going to lay the boot it while there down tho.   .. so you may all better come to terms that cruising in Australia will not happen for at least min 2ys 

You are wrong and will never be able to think clearly as long as your mind is full of hate.

 

Cruise ships bring a lot of joy, love and meaning of life to people. You will be surprised to know more people support the cruise industry than hate it. There is actually sympathy for them with people feeling sorry for them and will spend money with them to help them recover. People need to live and enjoy their life. There are people who have had life saving operations, recovered from cancer, had depression, been widowed or become a widower, celebrated milestones, birthdays, graduations, marriages all on cruise ships. They bring happiness to people. People only remember the good. People are not stupid. More airlines have brought the virus to this country than the ships ever did.

 

One day there will be a massive terminal in Botany Bay for them. Probably sooner now rather than later. It has woken up the world. The state of NSW will need a new port for cruising and quarantine purposes and to dock ships in an emergency like this rather than have them off our coast burning fuel. This will probably speed up the approval process for a cruise terminal in Botany Bay. A place to dock ships in time of quarantine as well.

 

People are genuinely forgiving and accepting. People are not stupid. For the amount of ships here speaks volumes about our love for cruising in this country and all you will see is people spreading good news about ships and the joy they bring opposed to the bad news.

 

It beats me what you bother to waste your life coming to this site if you hate cruise ships so much. I think that is sad that your life is so empty that you actually have the time to come on internet forums to spread hate. It probably explains why you are here because you have no one and nothing in your life because you are so negative so you fill in your empty life by coming on forums to spread hate.

[OzKiwiJJ]

I might be wrong but Ovation's NZ itineraries are often shorter than the Princess ones so maybe there wasn't as much time for the virus to spread on Ovation. A couple of days difference in itinerary length could mean a great difference in the number of people affected.

[mr walker]

38 minutes ago, LittleFish1976 said:

And this is one of those occasions where  'more numerous' is more appropriate than 'greater' but I would let your other adjective pass. 😉

 

 

 I had to laugh when I read that "other adjective" . It may have been inadvertent but sometimes inadvertency provides a good point. This comes from someone who works here in Sydney for a US company & often I think the word is a perfect descriptor for the 'Merican population as a whole 🙂 Note: I have many American friends who would be less so than the average.

 

 I cant see any cruises out of Australia before there is a widely available vaccine.

[Vader1111]

2 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said:

 

I know it is said that the first person to introduce the virus to Diamond Princess was an older man, I believe resident in Asia, who disembarked in HK but as for other Princess cruises, I wonder if they perhaps have more US-based passengers who were flying straight to their cruises and introducing the virus to the ships that way.

 

One reason I decided not to travel on a local (Sydney to NZ) Cunard cruise in mid-Feb/early March was that I could see from Cruise Critic chat that there were passengers flying in from the US to join that particular cruise and I assessed that that was an unacceptable risk to me. The US has had this for longer than they are admitting.

 

Anyway, it's one theory as to why Princess ships.

 

 

I have very little doubt at all that the infections on the Australian cruises were all caused by American passengers boarding the ships with CV-19.  You get no argument from me at all on that front.

 

However, my point isn't about the origin of how CV-19 got onto the ship.  It's why the Princess ships have been much more effective at incubating the disease compared with the other cruise lines.

 

Why did Ruby Princess (capacity 2700 passengers) have 400+ infections, while Ovation of the Seas (capacity 4900 passengers) had only 80?  Why did 15% of Ruby's passengers catch the disease, but only 1.6% of Ovation's?

 

There must be a reason why this virus has spread so quickly on the Princess ships, when the spread was much slower on other infected ships.

[Aus Traveller]

Once again, DiamondFour, a very interesting post. 👍

 

BTW, the only infections that could be laid at the door of a cruise ship, would be in the group that was flown home from the Diamond Princess. As they were quarantined, their infection probably didn't spread any further. All other infections came to this country from flights. They then spread - on cruise ships (mainly), but also in restaurants, reportedly the church conference and other venues where people congregated.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Aus Traveller

[Vader1111]

8 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

I might be wrong but Ovation's NZ itineraries are often shorter than the Princess ones so maybe there wasn't as much time for the virus to spread on Ovation. A couple of days difference in itinerary length could mean a great difference in the number of people affected.

Possibly a valid reason.  I'm fairly sure that both cruises were truncated after the Australian Govt gave them a deadline of midnight Sunday to be back in port and disembarked.  I'm not sure how long their respective cruises actually ended up lasting.

[Chiliburn]

9 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

You are wrong and will never be able to think clearly as long as your mind is full of hate.

 

Cruise ships bring a lot of joy, love and meaning of life to people. You will be surprised to know more people support the cruise industry than hate it. There is actually sympathy for them with people feeling sorry for them and will spend money with them to help them recover. People need to live and enjoy their life. There are people who have had life saving operations, recovered from cancer, had depression, been widowed or become a widower, celebrated milestones, birthdays, graduations, marriages all on cruise ships. They bring happiness to people. People only remember the good. People are not stupid. More airlines have brought the virus to this country than the ships ever did.

 

One day there will be a massive terminal in Botany Bay for them. Probably sooner now rather than later. It has woken up the world. The state of NSW will need a new port for cruising and quarantine purposes and to dock ships in an emergency like this rather than have them off our coast burning fuel. This will probably speed up the approval process for a cruise terminal in Botany Bay. A place to dock ships in time of quarantine as well.

 

People are genuinely forgiving and accepting. People are not stupid. For the amount of ships here speaks volumes about our love for cruising in this country and all you will see is people spreading good news about ships and the joy they bring opposed to the bad news.

 

It beats me what you bother to waste your life coming to this site if you hate cruise ships so much. I think that is sad that your life is so empty that you actually have the time to come on internet forums to spread hate. It probably explains why you are here because you have no one and nothing in your life because you are so negative so you fill in your empty life by coming on forums to spread hate.

Best of luck diamond 4 .   LOL

[Aus Traveller]

Just now, Vader1111 said:

Possibly a valid reason.  I'm fairly sure that both cruises were truncated after the Australian Govt gave them a deadline of midnight Sunday to be back in port and disembarked.  I'm not sure how long their respective cruises actually ended up lasting.

Ruby Princess' 13 night itinerary was reduced to 10 nights. I don't know about the Ovation.