Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[By The Bay]

Can we get back to the OP's original post, Predict when cruising will start. This thread has drifted into the unknown.

[Aus Traveller]

3 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

Can we get back to the OP's original post, Predict when cruising will start. This thread has drifted into the unknown.

OK. I feel that my previous estimate of six months is too optimistic: I now go for 12 months and that would be for Australian domestic cruises and maybe to NZ. Hopefully within 12 months there will be a vaccine that has been distributed widely and the virus is under control in our part of the world.🙂

[VK3DQ]

HI Folks

 

 

Now that NSW has kicked Carnival P&O out it will be a long time before this is forgotten and Australians are able to cruise again    Five years maybe as long as Ten

 

Regards

John

[By The Bay]

12 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

OK. I feel that my previous estimate of six months is too optimistic: I now go for 12 months and that would be for Australian domestic cruises and maybe to NZ. Hopefully within 12 months there will be a vaccine that has been distributed widely and the virus is under control in our part of the world.🙂

I am inclined to add another 6 months to your prediction. Next obstacle to overcome will be to get people interested in cruise again. I received an email today offering P&O Australia cruises starting in October 2020. A little optimistic IMHO.

Papua New Guinea Departing Brisbane

Saturday 17th October 2020    10 Nights Pacific Dawn Up To $300 Onboard Credit* Twin From $1,099 pp Quad From $849 pp

[Blackduck59]

On 3/15/2020 at 11:40 PM, OzKiwiJJ said:

Just for a bit of fun post a prediction for when you think cruising will recommence in various regions. One point for each correct prediction, I'll keep a spreadsheet.

 

1. Australia/NZ/South Pacific

2. Asia out of Singapore

3. Japan

4. China 

5. Alaska

6. Caribbean

7. Mediterranean

8. Baltic

 

If you think of any I've missed let me know.

 

Hmmm! I'll have to think about this. 😄

 

 Does anybody remember this? it's the original post

[Blackduck59]

2 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

I am inclined to add another 6 months to your prediction. Next obstacle to overcome will be to get people interested in cruise again. I received an email today offering P&O Australia cruises starting in October 2020. A little optimistic IMHO.

Papua New Guinea Departing Brisbane

Saturday 17th October 2020    10 Nights Pacific Dawn Up To $300 Onboard Credit* Twin From $1,099 pp Quad From $849 pp

 

Great itinerary, if I lived in OZ I would book that sucker, and enjoy it.

[Chiliburn]

2 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

I am inclined to add another 6 months to your prediction. Next obstacle to overcome will be to get people interested in cruise again. I received an email today offering P&O Australia cruises starting in October 2020. A little optimistic IMHO.

Papua New Guinea Departing Brisbane

Saturday 17th October 2020    10 Nights Pacific Dawn Up To $300 Onboard Credit* Twin From $1,099 pp Quad From $849 pp

I think there will be some way to get the local cruise industry going by Christmas.

Dont ask me how .Maybe if the virus is well contained and people get a medical certificate??

 

If it’s 18 months there won’t be a cruise industry.

[Chiliburn]

3 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Great itinerary, if I lived in OZ I would book that sucker, and enjoy it.

It’s a lovely part of the world,a lot af ww2 history 

[By The Bay]

5 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Great itinerary, if I lived in OZ I would book that sucker, and enjoy it.

I have done this cruise from Sydney with Princess and it was a great cruise to interesting ports.

[Chiliburn]

11 minutes ago, VK3DQ said:

HI Folks

 

 

Now that NSW has kicked Carnival P&O out it will be a long time before this is forgotten and Australians are able to cruise again    Five years maybe as long as Ten

 

Regards

John

When it comes to making money,Carnival will have a short memory. LOL

[DiamondFour]

I too think that what our government has done has shot themselves in the foot. The cruise lines will remember this and we will miss out for years. If ships are laid up we will be the first country to have ships pulled.

 

My bet is that Japan and Diamond Princess will be the first to resume operations domestically in that country. I will stand by that one.

 

You will have to excuse my theories about accidental lab leakages. It is possible. If you look up the Marbug virus and note in 1967 lab workers in Germany were exposed to it when working with primates that had infected with the virus that came from Uganda. This all happened in a lab.

 

The stress of airline shut downs and international travel bans has concerned me. While I will not engage in conspiracy theories and will only mention scientific fact, I think it is a real possibility that perhaps something nasty escaped a lab, governments know about it and shut down world travel and turned the economy on its head. This never happened during SARS and Ebola.

 

My bet for cruising in Australia is that it may not resume for many years to come and we are going to lose all ships that base in our country. We will not see them again for a long time or maybe a change of government or apology from the government.

[SinbadThePorter]

24 minutes ago, By The Bay said:

Next obstacle to overcome

 

As far as obstacles go, after the Australian government restrictions come NZ restrictions. Then the local Pacific restrictions. Then the East Asian restrictions. Then the rest of the world. All of these will almost certainly be lifted at different times.

 

Once that's done you have the travel insurance restrictions. Who is going to go on a cruise when at any moment it could be closed down due to Covid-19 and all costs borne by you?

 

Cruising will resume after the insurance companies are confident that their financial exposure to the virus is minimal. That will be after a working vaccine is released maybe early next year and further months for infections to have been reduced to background noise.

[SinbadThePorter]

4 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

While I will not engage in conspiracy theories and will only mention scientific fact, I think it is a real possibility that perhaps something nasty escaped a lab, governments know about it and shut down world travel and turned the economy on its head. This never happened during SARS and Ebola.

 

You failed to mention any scientific fact, only a conspiracy theory. Things are fraught enough without all these silly conspiracy theories floating around adding to people's anxieties.

 

Scientific Fact 1: Viruses jump between host species.

Scientific Fact 2: Such viruses have already be shown to have affected human populations, e.g. SARS, MERS, Ebola.

Scientific Fact 3: All the conditions for such virus transfer between species existed in Wuhan (and elsewhere).

Scientific Fact 4: When such viruses jump into humans, we have no immunity because they are brand new.

Scientific Fact 5: The features of the virus that make it so infectious and deadly in humans already exist in wild versions of the viruses.

 

From those facts the inference can be made that the coronavirus currently afflicting us, originated in wild animals which had been repeatedly brought into close contact with humans, and it is entirely unnecessary to invoke some mysterious "lab" as the source.

[The_Big_M]

1 hour ago, Aus Traveller said:

I have enjoyed reading your posts. I agree with a lot of what you say, and don't agree with some comments. 😁However, you are free to express your opinions.

 

Absolutely agree. I certainly didn't agree with his conclusion or a number of other points, but unlike some posters don't just ignore people because they say something I don't agree with.

 

OTOH, ironically, that same poster felt the need to initiate some personal insults and assumptions against me in another thread. But there you go, hey. 

[The_Big_M]

20 minutes ago, SinbadThePorter said:

 

As far as obstacles go, after the Australian government restrictions come NZ restrictions. Then the local Pacific restrictions. Then the East Asian restrictions. Then the rest of the world. All of these will almost certainly be lifted at different times.

 

Once that's done you have the travel insurance restrictions. Who is going to go on a cruise when at any moment it could be closed down due to Covid-19 and all costs borne by you?

 

Cruising will resume after the insurance companies are confident that their financial exposure to the virus is minimal. That will be after a working vaccine is released maybe early next year and further months for infections to have been reduced to background noise.

 

Agree with this. I do think once a vaccine - or if a 0 day test - is found, things can be restarted more quickly universally. I don't think each region will have significantly different requirements beyond that at that point. 

[LittleFish1976]

22 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

My bet for cruising in Australia is that it may not resume for many years to come and we are going to lose all ships that base in our country. We will not see them again for a long time or maybe a change of government or apology from the government

 

Just to take one of these issues; I doubt very much - very much - that enormous businesses will be basing their business decision-making on personal grudges. They will be going where the money is and as listed companies have a legal responsibility to do so.

 

Carnival apparently has very close, long-standing ties with either (maybe both) the NSW* or Australian Federal Government* and has been in the habit of meeting with them regularly. I'm sure they are used to the govt bending over backwards to accomodate them and generate tourism. It's all about the money - except when people will be dying. This had to be done. And Australia, as a relatively small population, has every right to make its own decisions about allocation of medical care and access across its borders.

 

*I can go back and check for you and cite the source but this is not a political forum and is probably tiresome for everyone here who just wants some sea air and afternoon tea, as we all would. Go to today's twitter chat and you'll find it.

 

[Aus Traveller]

1 hour ago, VK3DQ said:

HI Folks

Now that NSW has kicked Carnival P&O out it will be a long time before this is forgotten and Australians are able to cruise again    Five years maybe as long as Ten

 

Regards

John

Ten years would put me out.🙂

[Aus Traveller]

1 hour ago, Blackduck59 said:

 

Great itinerary, if I lived in OZ I would book that sucker, and enjoy it.

We have done that cruise a couple of times and enjoyed it. I am hoping to go there again, particularly the islands.

[Aus Traveller]

26 minutes ago, LittleFish1976 said:

 

Just to take one of these issues; I doubt very much - very much - that enormous businesses will be basing their business decision-making on personal grudges. They will be going where the money is and as listed companies have a legal responsibility to do so.

 

Carnival apparently has very close, long-standing ties with either (maybe both) the NSW* or Australian Federal Government* and has been in the habit of meeting with them regularly. I'm sure they are used to the govt bending over backwards to accomodate them and generate tourism. It's all about the money - except when people will be dying. This had to be done. And Australia, as a relatively small population, has every right to make its own decisions about allocation of medical care and access across its borders.

 

*I can go back and check for you and cite the source but this is not a political forum and is probably tiresome for everyone here who just wants some sea air and afternoon tea, as we all would. Go to today's twitter chat and you'll find it.

 

I agree that large corporations like Carnival make their decisions on financial reasons, not personal grudges because someone did something they feel is unreasonable.

[ilikeanswers]

3 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

I am not saying the virus was bio engineered. That is totally different from being cultivated. It is possibly that you can take any virus in nature, cultivate it and spread it and no one would be wiser as to how it spread. That is the ideal weapon of a terrorist. A bio engineered virus is something that is created, altered or changed in a lab to make it more lethal. There is a difference. For example if you had the flu and coughed up a throat full of mucus into a hankie and then placed that hankie in a place where others would come in contact with it and be infected then think of that on a larger scale to understand what I mean. Using a virus that exists in nature would be the ideal weapon for a low budget terrorist organisation that did not have access or funds for lab research. 

 

You actually think this is a good weapon? You have no control over who it attacks and kills, it cripples your economy, throws your country into disarray, closes the borders of countries around you which only cripples your own economy more not to mention any diplomatic relations that will be undone of your country screwing up the world. How could you possibly claim that China is benefiting at all? 

[ilikeanswers]

I know this is about cruising but considering all tourism depends on it when do you think we will have any semblance of a normal flight schedule🤔? 

[Blackduck59]

Well a couple of people have tried to get this back on track to no avail. Constant blah blah blah, Bio-terrorism, weaponized virus, and the best one "I've heard it will go away with hot weather" this thing is so far off track it would make the entire Ghan derailing look like a minor fender bender. This started as a fun game; see the original post and it has become an unreadable mess.15 pages and I think maybe 6 replies are even close to the spirit of the game.We started playing Aussie rules football and now it's water polo.

[Peacefulness]

Just for a bit of fun post a prediction for when you think cruising will recommence in various regions. One point for each correct prediction, I'll keep a spreadsheet.

 

1. Australia/NZ/South Pacific - Never

2. Asia out of Singapore - Never

3. Japan - Never

4. China - Never

5. Alaska - 2024

6. Caribbean - 2028

7. Mediterranean - 2025

8. Baltic - 2028

 

Although I've estimated when each will begin, I feel the travel industry as a whole is going to be extremely reduced both from demand and supply points of view. People around the world will just not have the money to allocate towards travel for a very long time. As a result, much of the travel suppliers will go out of business and this includes cruise companies. We really cannot compare any of what is going on right now to what has happened in the past. Not even the Spanish Flu or World War 1 or World War 2. World conditions and inter-relatedness is very different today to when these events occurred. Tania

 

[By The Bay]

1. Australia/NZ/South Pacific - 10/2021

2. Asia out of Singapore - 9/2021

3. Japan - 7/2021 - Olympics

4. China - 5/2021

5. Alaska - 5/2022

6. Caribbean - 2/2022

7. Mediterranean - 4/2022

8. Baltic - 5/2022

 

[ilikeanswers]

48 minutes ago, Peacefulness said:

1. Australia/NZ/South Pacific - Never

2. Asia out of Singapore - Never

3. Japan - Never

4. China - Never

5. Alaska - 2024

6. Caribbean - 2028

7. Mediterranean - 2025

8. Baltic - 2028

 

Never seems a bit harsh for the first four 🙄. Though it would not surprise me if island nations decide they do not want mega ships.