Predict when cruising will start again post-Coronavirus

[ilikeanswers]

1 minute ago, in rod we trust said:

  who will go on a cruise now, and whats to say if they open in 6 months that another case of a infected ship wont happen

 

Not just on ships but in countries. Experts are saying COVID 19 might come in waves of infection, so while it might seem like it is going down it may also resurge in another bout. Of course the hope is that with each wave the clusters will get smaller but we really don't know. This situation could be ongoing on and off around the world for who knows how long.

[peter1956]

1 hour ago, Aus Traveller said:

One reason I would like to see some cruise ships stay in our waters is so they can quickly get ready to start operations when it is safe to do so. If they are all re-located to the Northern hemisphere, it is going to take longer.

 

I am hoping that the Aust/NZ area will overcome this virus earlier that some other areas of the world, and that the first cruises will be Aust domestic and to NZ. If the ships aren't here, it would be much more difficult. I wouldn't want to get on a ship that has been in an area of the world where the virus is still raging or where it has become endemic.

There might be some great relocation deals if they have to come back in a hurry 🙂

[Aus Traveller]

Just now, peter1956 said:

There might be some great relocation deals if they have to come back in a hurry 🙂

Yes, but that would require flying, possibly to a country you don't really want to go to. 😁 I say that because by the look of it, it is going to be a long road for the USA to recover.

[peter1956]

Just now, Aus Traveller said:

Yes, but that would require flying, possibly to a country you don't really want to go to. 😁 I say that because by the look of it, it is going to be a long road for the USA to recover.

Very true. never thought of that 🤔

So glad we live in Australia. Hoping all our American members, in fact hoping all members on this site are safe and sound.

[Roger88]

Me and many other people have made their predictions already. I sat the boom will be in Spring 2021. This year, I expect people to start cruising somewhere in late summer or the begging of Autumn. It will depend on when and which countries will open their ports. Cant really image a non-stop cruises but it might happen this year. Anyhow, it will all depend on how the countries manage to deal with the current crisis. It might take a few more weeks.. or a few more months.. 

[in rod we trust]

46 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Adding to what other posters have said about Singapore, after one infection recorded they intiated emergency protocols and they had a standby medical unit ready to be deployed for testing and diagnosis in the event of epidemics. You have to remember they got hit hard by SARS so the government wanted to make sure it didn't happen again therefore they readied themselves for a potential epidemic.

we all knew about sars and swine flu and  h5n1 the aussie gov knew .  

we all knew Chinese ccp party has lied many times about different stuff and viruses

 if the gov knew all that and better than us common people knew they should of closed off all the borders to tourist and cruise ships back in feb 

they should of put all returning aussie citzens in quarantine camps . treated any loose cases we had floating around in the country and all would of be fine , cruise would of still operated as long as they didn't disembark at other island or countries and people would still all be working , sure the airports and airplane companies would of taken a hit no different to now but we would be safe and our internal economy still thriving to a extent.  

 

I applaud Taiwan even tho the ccp party in china tries there best to keep them out of the un and WHO meetings 

they heard the rumors about the virus thru returning citizens and other countries and acted on it right away .

  the Chinese test kits are defective and masks they sent are being returned to them  they are useless 

Taiwan is sending material here for us to make some and sending the rest of the world proper ones 

Edited April 2, 2020 by in rod we trust

[possum52]

12 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Me and many other people have made their predictions already. I sat the boom will be in Spring 2021. This year, I expect people to start cruising somewhere in late summer or the begging of Autumn. It will depend on when and which countries will open their ports. Cant really image a non-stop cruises but it might happen this year. Anyhow, it will all depend on how the countries manage to deal with the current crisis. It might take a few more weeks.. or a few more months.. 

Yours or ours? Remember you are on the Australian New Zealand Cruisers' board. I assume you mean in late August or September? With what is happening in the USA, do you really expect cruising to have resumed by then? If so that is being super optimistic!

 

Leigh

Edited April 2, 2020 by possum52

[The_Big_M]

3 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Not to be argumentative but Singapore has 1000 cases and 4 deaths with a population of 5 million give to take. Australia has over 5000 cases with 24 million. 0.9 people per million for Australia and 0.7 people per million for Singapore. I think they are faring better than as for a highly densely populated city of living. 3.1 people per square kilometer for Australia and 8358 people per square kilometer for Singapore.

 

That's only because of the way they handled it, not natural causes. 

 

If you look back at the stats early on, they were one of the first to the top of the charts with a big spike. However, as soon as they saw that they reacted swiftly and their 'curve' (growth) then was virtually immediately flattened.

 

That demonstrates that it's not the environment that has caused the low numbers but their great response to it. Had they not managed it well it would have continued to grow like others. And we could have learned from them...

[The_Big_M]

1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

Not just on ships but in countries. Experts are saying COVID 19 might come in waves of infection, so while it might seem like it is going down it may also resurge in another bout. Of course the hope is that with each wave the clusters will get smaller but we really don't know. This situation could be ongoing on and off around the world for who knows how long.

 

That is comparable to other virii e.g. the flu. And with that managed with e.g. annual vaccines if there is an issue it will just be managed by evidence of having taken the vaccine. Hence why there is much work now on a vaccine. That will bring things back to normality.

[Roger88]

1 hour ago, possum52 said:

Yours or ours? Remember you are on the Australian New Zealand Cruisers' board. I assume you mean in late August or September? With what is happening in the USA, do you really expect cruising to have resumed by then? If so that is being super optimistic!

 

Leigh

The situation escalted quickly in China and lasted for about 3 months. By mid summer I expect the US to cool down and start working things out just like China. I mean of cource I understand that we are nothing compared to China in terms of social responsibility and strict, very strict legeslations (communist) but due to our technological advancement and patriotism we should fight it off in a short time 😄

[possum52]

50 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

The situation escalted quickly in China and lasted for about 3 months. By mid summer I expect the US to cool down and start working things out just like China. I mean of cource I understand that we are nothing compared to China in terms of social responsibility and strict, very strict legeslations (communist) but due to our technological advancement and patriotism we should fight it off in a short time 😄

You evidently didn't understand my previous reply to you - you are on the Australia and New Zealand Cruisers board - it is autumn here, winter will start on the 1st June, spring on 1st September and summer on 1st December. I hope your last sentence was tongue in cheek. So you are saying by the northern mid summer the USA will be over the worst of this virus and its citizens ready to start crusing again? 

 

Leigh

[Aus Traveller]

2 hours ago, Roger88 said:

Me and many other people have made their predictions already. I sat the boom will be in Spring 2021. This year, I expect people to start cruising somewhere in late summer or the begging of Autumn. It will depend on when and which countries will open their ports. Cant really image a non-stop cruises but it might happen this year. Anyhow, it will all depend on how the countries manage to deal with the current crisis. It might take a few more weeks.. or a few more months.. 

You say you can't imagine a non-stop cruise - they are quite common. Maybe this is the way cruising will start.

[ilikeanswers]

56 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

The situation escalted quickly in China and lasted for about 3 months. By mid summer I expect the US to cool down and start working things out just like China. I mean of cource I understand that we are nothing compared to China in terms of social responsibility and strict, very strict legeslations (communist) but due to our technological advancement and patriotism we should fight it off in a short time 😄

 

I wouldn't say it is finished in China. It may have slowed down and they have lifted some restricitons but it is not over yet and there could be still a resurgence. Looking at the countries that have done well fighting the infection one common theme is a strong centralised government. The problem in times of epidemics with decentralised governments is that you don't have a unified system, each state, provence or area is running their own protocols and procedures and that can conflict with whoever is on the other side of the border. Just look at Brazil and the mess it is in. Some states have chosen to go into complete lock down and the problem is that those states who aren't in lock down now can't get supplies trucked in because lock down states won't give freight trucks access to drive through them. Instead of focusing on slowing the virus spread they are arguing over which state has the right to do what😟. It wouldn't surprise me if Brazil creeps to the top of the leader board.

[Aus Traveller]

2 hours ago, in rod we trust said:

they should of put all returning aussie citzens in quarantine camps . treated any loose cases we had floating around in the country and all would of be fine , cruise would of still operated as long as they didn't disembark at other island or countries and people would still all be working , sure the airports and airplane companies would of taken a hit no different to now but we would be safe and our internal economy still thriving to a extent. 

  the Chinese test kits are defective and masks they sent are being returned to them  they are useless 

Taiwan is sending material here for us to make some and sending the rest of the world proper ones 

Rod, when the government introduced quarantine of incoming citizens, they said that they did not have the capacity to quarantine the numbers who arrived even in the previous week (that is mid March). We would not have had the capacity to quarantine the numbers who arrived in Australia in mid February.

 

You say the Chinese test kits and masks are defective. From what I have heard, the majority of our medical equipment comes from China. Twiggy Forrest is flying in plane-loads of Chinese equipment, millions of dollars' worth of protective equipment and ventilators. Maybe we should tell him it is all defective.

[LittleFish1976]

5 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

Not to be argumentative but Singapore has 1000 cases and 4 deaths with a population of 5 million give to take. Australia has over 5000 cases with 24 million. 0.9 people per million for Australia and 0.7 people per million for Singapore. I think they are faring better than as for a highly densely populated city of living. 3.1 people per square kilometer for Australia and 8358 people per square kilometer for Singapore.

 

Singapore exercised rigorous and thorough contact tracing from the very beginning which has made an enormous difference to the spread of the virus.

 

Also, Singaporean people are well-used to complying with government directives whereas it's a point of pride with many Australians to refuse to do as the authorities ask them (that's a simplistic generalisation but the essence and spirit of it is true).

 

Also, I believe that any country in which it is on the normal end of the spectrum to wear a mask has a head start on minimising transmission through droplet and aerosolised virus particles.

 

The idea that warm weather could or can destroy the virus in a real- life population is just a furphy.

 

 

[Aus Traveller]

1 hour ago, Roger88 said:

The situation escalted quickly in China and lasted for about 3 months. By mid summer I expect the US to cool down and start working things out just like China. I mean of cource I understand that we are nothing compared to China in terms of social responsibility and strict, very strict legeslations (communist) but due to our technological advancement and patriotism we should fight it off in a short time 😄

Sorry to say, but patriotism won't help fight this virus. China reduced the spread of the disease with now a small number of new infections. The Chinese say they have no new local infections 😉, but they clamped down in a way that would not be accepted in a democracy. They welded shut doors on apartment buildings where there were infections. Can you imagine that happening in USA? It will be a long, hard road.☹️

[Aus Traveller]

1 minute ago, LittleFish1976 said:

Singapore exercised rigorous and thorough contact tracing from the very beginning which has made an enormous difference to the spread of the virus.

 

Also, Singaporean people are well-used to complying with government directives whereas it's a point of pride with many Australians to refuse to do as the authorities ask them (that's a simplistic generalisation but the essence and spirit of it is true).

 

Also, I believe that any country in which it is on the normal end of the spectrum to wear a mask has a head start on minimising transmission through droplet and aerosolised virus particles.

 

The idea that warm weather could or can destroy the virus in a real- life population is just a furphy.

Well said. 👍

[DiamondFour]

14 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

Sorry to say, but patriotism won't help fight this virus. China reduced the spread of the disease with now a small number of new infections. The Chinese say they have no new local infections 😉, but they clamped down in a way that would not be accepted in a democracy. They welded shut doors on apartment buildings where there were infections. Can you imagine that happening in USA? It will be a long, hard road.☹️

It is hard to trust the information coming from china as reliable. I want to refer back to my post on page 11 where I outlined a scenario of bio terrorism where a virus found in nature could easily be cultivated in a lab and converted into an aerosol for release in public places.

 

One must ask the question why is the outbreak in china limited to just one city? Assuming the accepted truth is correct that it originated from infected bats being sold in wet markets, why has the question not been raised about the larger bat supply chain in china? How is it that these horseshoe bats which are subtropical and native to a place over 1,000km from wuhan close to the border with Myanmar infected only the people of wuhan? If the bats were harvested or caught at a particular location you would expect to see widespread distribution around mainland china. Are we to believe that wuhan is the only city in china that has these bats sold at markets and why was the batch of bats that wuhan got more infected than the bats sent to other areas of china?

 

China has lied about this from the start. Political news reports and intelligence agencies say satellites and on ground intelligence suggest the death rate is at least 10 times higher in wuhan than published.

 

I am seriously questioning now weather our governments are telling us the truth. If this a dangerous virus something that escaped from the wuhan institute of virology which is only 12km from the wet market where the outbreak occured? Is this something more sinister? Who would gain from turning the economic world upside down and ruining the lives of billions of people around the world?

 

China claims they have no new cases and seems to be completely recovered?

 

The extreme response we have seen around the world is something no democracy would have done since a certain political party rose to power in Germany in the 1930's. It is extreme. Is the government not telling us something? 

[ilikeanswers]

39 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

I outlined a scenario of bio terrorism where a virus found in nature could easily be cultivated in a lab and converted into an aerosol for release in public places.

Baseless Conspiracy Theories Claim New Coronavirus Was Bioengineered

39 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

One must ask the question why is the outbreak in china limited to just one city? 

 

It was not limited to one city just check out any coronavirus spread map. And the infection is far from over. They lifted restrictions a little bit and got a resurgence. 

[mr walker]

58 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

The extreme response we have seen around the world is something no democracy would have done since a certain political party rose to power in Germany in the 1930's. It is extreme. Is the government not telling us something? 

 

There is a well espoused theory that any discussion left to run will eventually result in the mention of NAZI at some point.

 

You have been added to my ignore list.

 

[nnps]

2 minutes ago, mr walker said:

 

There is a well espoused theory that any discussion left to run will eventually result in the mention of NAZI at some point.

 

You have been added to my ignore list.

 

Agreed, the conversation has deteriorated into the conspiracy whacko theory zone. 

[DiamondFour]

24 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

Baseless Conspiracy Theories Claim New Coronavirus Was Bioengineered

 

It was not limited to one city just check out any coronavirus spread map. And the infection is far from over. They lifted restrictions a little bit and got a resurgence. 

I am not saying the virus was bio engineered. That is totally different from being cultivated. It is possibly that you can take any virus in nature, cultivate it and spread it and no one would be wiser as to how it spread. That is the ideal weapon of a terrorist. A bio engineered virus is something that is created, altered or changed in a lab to make it more lethal. There is a difference. For example if you had the flu and coughed up a throat full of mucus into a hankie and then placed that hankie in a place where others would come in contact with it and be infected then think of that on a larger scale to understand what I mean. Using a virus that exists in nature would be the ideal weapon for a low budget terrorist organisation that did not have access or funds for lab research. 

[DiamondFour]

7 minutes ago, mr walker said:

 

There is a well espoused theory that any discussion left to run will eventually result in the mention of NAZI at some point.

 

You have been added to my ignore list.

 

I will take that as a badge of honour I will wear with pride. To be added to your ignore list along with others with me is something that makes me pleased and proud. As Winston Churchill once said. You have enemies? Good. That means you have stood up for something, sometime in your life. I thank you for adding me to your ignore list as it shall be my gain and your loss.

[Aus Traveller]

22 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

I will take that as a badge of honour I will wear with pride. To be added to your ignore list along with others with me is something that makes me pleased and proud. As Winston Churchill once said. You have enemies? Good. That means you have stood up for something, sometime in your life. I thank you for adding me to your ignore list as it shall be my gain and your loss.

I have enjoyed reading your posts. I agree with a lot of what you say, and don't agree with some comments. 😁However, you are free to express your opinions.

[DiamondFour]

1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said:

Baseless Conspiracy Theories Claim New Coronavirus Was Bioengineered

 

It was not limited to one city just check out any coronavirus spread map. And the infection is far from over. They lifted restrictions a little bit and got a resurgence. 

As I cannot edit the above I will further elaborate.

 

At present the CSIRO is testing a coronavirus vaccine on ferrets. In order to do this the ferrets will first be vaccinated with the test vaccine and once their immunity is built they will be infected with a live strain of the coronavirus. The CSIRO keeps live strains of the coronavirus for this purpose. This is not bio engineered, it is a natural living virus. If the CSIRO was not careful and did not have security it would mean one could take the tool to dispense the virus and samples into public and infect others with the virus.

 

Now the wuhan institute of virology opened in 2015 in wuhan and its specialty was the study of coronaviruses. They collected samples from all over the world to develop a workable vaccine and study the virus. That means there were living samples of the coronavirus in that lab in wuhan.

 

All it takes is one disgruntled employee, an opportunistic thief or someone after some quick money to release a live samples of a virus along with the tools to disperse it and we would have a mass outbreak. It is easy to do, it can be done and there is no reason to think it is impossible.

 

It would be very hard to trace or even prove it is a bio terror attack as the virus is natural. The perpetrator has a two week head start on authorities. The only significant clue that it is a bio terror attack would be large cluster cities around the world where the viral agent was released. The virus would then spread in the community as we have seen on cruise ships.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by DiamondFour