What are the chances of Fall Cruises being suspended?

[Toofarfromthesea]

6 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

You heard it here first: No cruises till March 2021.

 

Are you reporting something you read or is this a personal prediction?

[Hlitner]

We should add President Macron's suggestion that the 26 Schengen countries close their borders until at least Sept 1.  This idea is now under consideration by the EU.  And add to the mix the airline situation, even in the Fall.  We recently had an October flight from ORD (Chicago) to Rome (FCO) cancelled when the airline (AA) cancelled all their flights between those two cities.  It is actually quite difficult to find convenient flights between the USA and Europe in the Fall with many airlines cancelling flights and drastically reducing capacity and frequency.  Not only does this create hassles for cruisers but will also make things much more difficult for the cruise lines who must routinely move crew members around the world.  

 

Hank

[SRF]

On 4/13/2020 at 1:30 PM, Hlitner said:

That is not exactly what he said.  He said, "at least" 12 to 18 months.  And then he went on to talk about the necessity of extensive testing.  Also consider that many in our society do not trust new or even old vaccines.  

 

1)  You do not need to have everyone vaccinated to pretty much stop this disease.  See Herd Immunity

 

2)  People not getting vaccinated does not affect ME directly.  I WILL be vaccinated, and thus will not get the disease.  If YOU do not get vaccinated, and leave yourself at risk to get the disease and die, that is on YOU.

[Hlitner]

1 minute ago, SRF said:

 

1)  You do not need to have everyone vaccinated to pretty much stop this disease.  See Herd Immunity

 

2)  People not getting vaccinated does not affect ME directly.  I WILL be vaccinated, and thus will not get the disease.  If YOU do not get vaccinated, and leave yourself at risk to get the disease and die, that is on YOU.

"Herd Immunity" is an oft repeated term that few folks truly understand.  But given the high degree of contagion for COVID-19 one would assume that the herd immunity factor would be at least 90%.  This means that over 90% of the population would need to have some immunity via an effective vaccine or possibly antibodies from a previous bout with the virus.  Given that in most developed countries, such as the USA, there is extreme resistance to vaccines it is unlikely that herd immunity would ever be achieved.   In fact, while herd immunity sounds good in theory it has likely never been achieved for any disease.   I know one scientist that argues that Smallpox achieved herd immunity (after more then 200 years), but there are others who even dispute this theory.

 

Hank

[SRF]

4 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

"Herd Immunity" is an oft repeated term that few folks truly understand.  But given the high degree of contagion for COVID-19 one would assume that the herd immunity factor would be at least 90%.  This means that over 90% of the population would need to have some immunity via an effective vaccine or possibly antibodies from a previous bout with the virus.  Given that in most developed countries, such as the USA, there is extreme resistance to vaccines it is unlikely that herd immunity would ever be achieved.   In fact, while herd immunity sounds good in theory it has likely never been achieved for any disease.   I know one scientist that argues that Smallpox achieved herd immunity (after more then 200 years), but there are others who even dispute this theory.

 

Hank

 

You don't need to assume.  Do the math.

 

Herd immunity does not mean that a disease is eradicated or that people do not get it.  It means that the likelihood of someone who is not immune coming in contact with an actively infected person is so low, that the disease does not spread out of control.

 

And it does occur, within those parameters.  Measles is not prevalent, even in areas with many anti-vaxers.

[SRF]

23 hours ago, ducklite said:

Yes, a titre test once fully developed will show this.  The level of antibodies in the blood will indicate if the person is currently ill or shedding the virus, or has had the virus in the past but is not currently able to shed it.  

 

No, an antibody test does not tell if you are currently ill or shedding virus.

 

It tells that you are recovering or have had it in the past.  Or that you have been vaccinated, and the vaccine worked.

[SRF]

23 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

A lot of the talking heads on TV keep discussing tests and test kits — without covering what their purpose is.  Of course, if someone has symptoms - or has some reason to believe he has been infected - it is important to test them to know how to proceed.

 

But for the need for someone to be tested simply to see if he is clean is less clear.  The test will only establish his/her situation as of the time the test swab is taken.   Unless we are thinking about testing people every day, it is kind of pointless for those without symptoms to be tested.

 

Mainly because they DON'T UNDERSTAND it themselves.

[SRF]

19 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

This could apply once there is a test which identifies past infection as opposed to existing infection - AND it is known whether or not there is remaining capability to transmit.  At present, the tests only indicate the presence of the virus - and our testing capacity is extremely overtaxed.

 

This test is expected to become available in the US this week or next week.

 

It is already being used in Germany and UK.

[lenquixote66]

11 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Are you reporting something you read or is this a personal prediction?

Personal based on everything I have been reading.

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, SRF said:

 

You don't need to assume.  Do the math.

 

Herd immunity does not mean that a disease is eradicated or that people do not get it.  It means that the likelihood of someone who is not immune coming in contact with an actively infected person is so low, that the disease does not spread out of control.

 

And it does occur, within those parameters.  Measles is not prevalent, even in areas with many anti-vaxers.

We are getting a bit off topic but lets go with it 🙂   Some vaccines, such as measles are required by nearly all the States and school districts.  Because of these requirements, most comply unless they have a very good reason not to get the vaccination.  The flu vaccine is generally not required for schools and this would not help with those out of school.  If a COVID-19 vaccine is ever developed it will be interesting to see if it ultimately is required by schools.  But this would still leave a good number of adults unvaccinated with many refusing such shots.  The USA currently has no way to require non-school attending people to get any vaccine and one can only imagine the uproar if Congress tried to force folks to get any vaccine.

 

I do think it is likely that we will see more vaccination requirements in the future.  This can be done by any country as a requirement for any person entering their country.  It would also be possible for cruise lines to require certain vaccinations as a condition to cruise.  I have previously posted how those of us who used to be in the US Military were used to carrying a detailed "shot record" as part of our military requirement when traveling, changing posts, etc.  Many countries require travelers to carry a Yellow Fever vaccination certificate so there already is a precedent.  I could see this expanded to other vaccines such as a future COVID-19, hepatitis, MMR, DPT, etc.  Just like 9-11 changed travel requirements around the world we can envision COVID-19 also causing some changes.

 

Hank 

[Hlitner]

2 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

Personal based on everything I have been reading.

It may well turn out that you made a good prediction.  But my prediction is that cruising will return, in a limited way, by September.

 

Hank

[lenquixote66]

2 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

It may well turn out that you made a good prediction.  But my prediction is that cruising will return, in a limited way, by September.

 

Hank

I have a cruise booked for Dec.2020.I am not cancelling ,however, I do not think that I will be on the cruise.

Why do you believe that September is the date of return to cruising ?

 

Lenny

[Hlitner]

39 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

I have a cruise booked for Dec.2020.I am not cancelling ,however, I do not think that I will be on the cruise.

Why do you believe that September is the date of return to cruising ?

 

Lenny

Just a pure guess.  But I am making a few assumptions.  Princess has already decided to close its land-based Alaska facilities for the season.  And with Canada keeping its ports closed until at least July 1, I think the entire Alaskan cruise season is in jeopardy.  As to Europe, the EU is now considering a suggestion from President Macron that the 26 Schengen countries keep their borders closed until September 1....which would mean the cancellation of all the summer European cruises.  As to the Caribbean, it is questionable as to how many, if any, of the islands will decide to open their ports.    On the other hand, if COVID-19 continues to ravage the world then your 2021 prediction makes more sense.

 

Hank

[lenquixote66]

3 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Just a pure guess.  But I am making a few assumptions.  Princess has already decided to close its land-based Alaska facilities for the season.  And with Canada keeping its ports closed until at least July 1, I think the entire Alaskan cruise season is in jeopardy.  As to Europe, the EU is now considering a suggestion from President Macron that the 26 Schengen countries keep their borders closed until September 1....which would mean the cancellation of all the summer European cruises.  As to the Caribbean, it is questionable as to how many, if any, of the islands will decide to open their ports.    On the other hand, if COVID-19 continues to ravage the world then your 2021 prediction makes more sense.

 

Hank

If my “prediction” is correct that is scary for the elderly members of our population(referring to myself).

 

Lenny

 

 

[Hlitner]

4 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

If my “prediction” is correct that is scary for the elderly members of our population(referring to myself).

 

Lenny

 

 

When it come to that situation we are in the same boat (pun intended).   To quote a very good friend, "so little time...so much yet to do."

 

Hank

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, SRF said:

 

You don't need to assume.  Do the math.

 

Herd immunity does not mean that a disease is eradicated or that people do not get it.  It means that the likelihood of someone who is not immune coming in contact with an actively infected person is so low, that the disease does not spread out of control.

 

And it does occur, within those parameters.  Measles is not prevalent, even in areas with many anti-vaxers.

I know of a child (Godson to our son in all but the formality) who was exempt from the measles vaccine requirement because of a compromised immunity system. But because of all the children who (before it was changed in our state) were opted out of the shot for "religious" reasons by their parents, that his parents decided it was less dangerous for him to get the shot. Too many were being exempted to make herd immunity a reality for him.

[navybankerteacher]

5 hours ago, SRF said:

 

1)  You do not need to have everyone vaccinated to pretty much stop this disease.  See Herd Immunity

 

2)  People not getting vaccinated does not affect ME directly.  I WILL be vaccinated, and thus will not get the disease.  If YOU do not get vaccinated, and leave yourself at risk to get the disease and die, that is on YOU.

Do you realize how obscenely (and short-sightedly) self-centered you are making yourself out to be?

 

While it can be claimed that people not getting vaccinated does not affect YOU directly, it sure as hell can affect you - and very profoundly - indirectly —- if, for example, their negligence causes a ship you are on to be placed in quarantine — or, more basically, if lack of seeking contagion control keeps your community in lockdown. 

 

Once more:  IT IS NOT ALL ABOUT YOU.

 

Finally, for “herd immunity” to be relevant, the “herd” must represent a sufficiently high percentage of the population.

 

p.s. I believe you are placing too much credence in some rosy reports of what is going on in other countries.

[slidergirl]

6 hours ago, SRF said:

 

You don't need to assume.  Do the math.

 

Herd immunity does not mean that a disease is eradicated or that people do not get it.  It means that the likelihood of someone who is not immune coming in contact with an actively infected person is so low, that the disease does not spread out of control.

 

And it does occur, within those parameters.  Measles is not prevalent, even in areas with many anti-vaxers.

Read up on the measles outbreak of 2018/2019...  Rockland Co, NY, Lancaster Co, PA, New Mexico, Southern California... went from years of under 200 cases since 2000 to over 1000 in a very short time.  Schools closed or kids were not permitted to go at all if they could not prove vaccination - those with legit reasons to not have it were even not allowed to attend.

[Aplmac]

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

.. those of us who used to be in the US Military were used to carrying a detailed "shot record" as part of our military requirement when traveling, changing posts, etc. 

Many countries require travelers to carry a Yellow Fever vaccination certificate

so there already is a precedent.  ===> I remember it well. Early 60's!

I could see this expanded to other vaccines

such as a future COVID-19, hepatitis, MMR, DPT, etc.  ===> Bring it!

 

Just like 9-11 changed travel requirements around the world

we can envision COVID-19 also causing some changes.

 

Back in the early Sixties, that little yellow booklet

lived with, and travelled with, your passport

-or you simply weren't going anywhere!

You had no choice in the matter!

 

History will repeat itself, and you'll travel with your Covid-19 pass-card

-or you simply won't be going anywhere!

Anti-vaxxers will wave us Goodbye from the dock
as our ship pulls away!

 

[cruisemom42]

I remember having a booklet with all my childhood immunizations. I used to keep it with my passport but not sure what became of it over the years and I didn't keep it updated. It wouldn't be a bad idea to digitally attach that info to people's passport number. 

 

Of course some who take short closed-loop cruises from US don't carry passports...

[Noodles84]

8 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Just a pure guess.  But I am making a few assumptions.  Princess has already decided to close its land-based Alaska facilities for the season.  And with Canada keeping its ports closed until at least July 1, I think the entire Alaskan cruise season is in jeopardy.  As to Europe, the EU is now considering a suggestion from President Macron that the 26 Schengen countries keep their borders closed until September 1....which would mean the cancellation of all the summer European cruises.  As to the Caribbean, it is questionable as to how many, if any, of the islands will decide to open their ports.    On the other hand, if COVID-19 continues to ravage the world then your 2021 prediction makes more sense.

 

Hank

Global News Canada stated on this evening's news that both Princess and Holland America were cancelling any cruises from Canadian ports for the rest of the year.  That pretty much takes out Alaskan cruises for 2020! Nicole

[iancal]

We still have that yellow booklet and we do keep it updated ever since we attended a travel medical clinic.  DW required one throughout her health care career.

 

As I recall, we were asked for it at least one of the African countries we visited a several years ago.  Never bother taking it on any other trips nor have we been asked for it.  That could change.   

Edited April 16, 2020 by iancal

[h-sar]

On 4/15/2020 at 7:45 PM, Noodles84 said:

Global News Canada stated on this evening's news that both Princess and Holland America were cancelling any cruises from Canadian ports for the rest of the year.  That pretty much takes out Alaskan cruises for 2020! Nicole

Relative just had Princess cancel their Alaska cruise for Sept. 

[SRF]

On 4/15/2020 at 12:25 PM, Hlitner said:

We are getting a bit off topic but lets go with it 🙂   Some vaccines, such as measles are required by nearly all the States and school districts.  Because of these requirements, most comply unless they have a very good reason not to get the vaccination.  The flu vaccine is generally not required for schools and this would not help with those out of school.  If a COVID-19 vaccine is ever developed it will be interesting to see if it ultimately is required by schools.  But this would still leave a good number of adults unvaccinated with many refusing such shots.  The USA currently has no way to require non-school attending people to get any vaccine and one can only imagine the uproar if Congress tried to force folks to get any vaccine.

 

I do think it is likely that we will see more vaccination requirements in the future.  This can be done by any country as a requirement for any person entering their country.  It would also be possible for cruise lines to require certain vaccinations as a condition to cruise.  I have previously posted how those of us who used to be in the US Military were used to carrying a detailed "shot record" as part of our military requirement when traveling, changing posts, etc.  Many countries require travelers to carry a Yellow Fever vaccination certificate so there already is a precedent.  I could see this expanded to other vaccines such as a future COVID-19, hepatitis, MMR, DPT, etc.  Just like 9-11 changed travel requirements around the world we can envision COVID-19 also causing some changes.

 

Hank 

 

Again, what is the benefit to the country?

 

If they can, and do, require everyone in their country to be vaccinated, then who cares if you come and are not?   You are unlikely to infect anyone if you have it.  Basics of herd immunity.

 

I can see, in the near term, proof of vaccination eliminating the current quarantine requirements that many countries have in place.  But long term, it doesn't do anything.

 

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, SRF said:

 

Again, what is the benefit to the country?

 

If they can, and do, require everyone in their country to be vaccinated, then who cares if you come and are not?   You are unlikely to infect anyone if you have it.  Basics of herd immunity.

 

I can see, in the near term, proof of vaccination eliminating the current quarantine requirements that many countries have in place.  But long term, it doesn't do anything.

 

Do you really believe that a country which requires everyone of their population to be vaccinated is going to permit ships to bring un-vaccinated passengers to its ports?