What it will take for cruising to resume

[time4u2go]

3 minutes ago, firefox247 said:

 

I suspect that itineraries will be modified when available and cancelled if they cannot find compatible ports.  I don't believe that Royal can possibly roll out their entire fleet with the number of ports that are closed, but I do not believe for a second that they are just going to sit on the sidelines and sit by until every port is open.  They'll sail every ship to CocoCay and Labadee if they have to.

 

Whatever it takes, I'm sure they will sail if at all possible.  I mean, just think about how long it took them to cancel up to May 12 when the writing was on the wall for forever.  Or how long it took them to modify itineraries to places (like Canada) that have closed to them.  Royal will sail if they can sail.  The destinations are secondary.

You say that the destinations are secondary, but they can't sail if they don't have destinations.  They can't do cruises to nowhere.

 

Coco Cay and Labadee are part of other countries (Bahamas and Haiti).  Perhaps those countries will allow them to dock, perhaps not.

Edited April 4, 2020 by time4u2go

[John&LaLa]

1 minute ago, time4u2go said:

You say that the destinations are secondary, but they can't sail if they don't have destinations.  They can't do cruises to nowhere.

 

Coco Cay and Labadee are part of other countries (Bahamas and Haiti).  Perhaps those countries will allow them to dock, perhaps not.

 

I can see ships going to CC for half days. 

7 - noon and 1 - 6

[firefox247]

3 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

You say that the destinations are secondary, but they can't sail if they don't have destinations. 

 

Coco Cay and Labadee are part of other countries (Bahamas and Haiti).  Perhaps those countries will allow them to dock, perhaps not.

 

Again, my point is that if a few ports are open within proximity to each other (and that's true even right now, even if they have entry restrictions), then Royal will make however many cruises happen to those ports once the public health warnings go down.

 

When I say the destination is secondary, I don't literally mean they are going to sail into the middle of the ocean with nowhere to go when every port is closed.  I mean that Royal will change itineraries to find places that are open long before they cancel a sailing.  They just did this last week, in fact.  They moved a sailing from NJ that was going to Canada to have them go south instead because they expect (or hope) those ports to be open.  They didn't just say, "Well, Canada said we can't come, pack it up guys, the cruise is cancelled."

[time4u2go]

8 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I can see ships going to CC for half days. 

7 - noon and 1 - 6

If they are allowed to. 😏

[zekekelso]

57 minutes ago, firefox247 said:

There is no way most of these things are going to happen in the long term.  All of them involve manpower and/or keeping the ship (or ship's venues) much less full than they have been traditionally.  That means tons of revenue and profit down the drain when they need it most.  Keep in mind how resistant the industry was to shutting down to begin with.  You think they suddenly have had a come to Jesus moment and will stay off the ocean until they are sure COVID-19 is under control?  I doubt it.

 

 

Just my opinion, but I don't think it's going to be up to the cruise lines. 

[firefox247]

1 minute ago, zekekelso said:

 

Just my opinion, but I don't think it's going to be up to the cruise lines. 

 

Perhaps.  You think governments are going to mandate it?

[KansasK]

I turned 70 in February, so I would need the doctor's letter. Without a vaccine, I don't see how my doctor could sign it since I am in the risky group and people already sick and without symptoms could spread the virus on the ship to anyone and myself, also. I have pretty well resigned myself to waiting for the vaccine. I have a cruise scheduled for May 17 and I am waiting to see if Royal cancels another month, otherwise I will have to cancel this cruise that I booked last June. I will be unhappy doing it, but this is what seems safest right now.  I don't think the number of new cases each day will drop to zero until at least June. Since docking at the end of the cruise is an issue, I can't see how Royal can come back any sooner. I also don't know how long they can do this without going broke. 

[ReneeFLL]

10 hours ago, eel said:

 

😎 Ships could not sail full.  They would need to keep a certain number of balcony cabins empty for quarantines.  They would also need to have extra space so that overcrowding of public venues is not a problem.

 

 

Why keep a number of balcony cabins empty? If someone doesn't want to get quarantined in an ocean view or inside cabin then they should book a balcony or up. Why take balconies away from people who want to book them? They get stuck where they booked.

[ReneeFLL]

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

If they are allowed to. 😏

I don't see why the Bahamas wouldn't let them if none of their citizens are on CC. If it's strictly RC employees what difference would it make?

[Rancher Dave]

24 minutes ago, KansasK said:

I turned 70 in February, so I would need the doctor's letter. Without a vaccine, I don't see how my doctor could sign it since I am in the risky group and people already sick and without symptoms could spread the virus on the ship to anyone and myself, also. I have pretty well resigned myself to waiting for the vaccine. I have a cruise scheduled for May 17 and I am waiting to see if Royal cancels another month, otherwise I will have to cancel this cruise that I booked last June. I will be unhappy doing it, but this is what seems safest right now.  I don't think the number of new cases each day will drop to zero until at least June. Since docking at the end of the cruise is an issue, I can't see how Royal can come back any sooner. I also don't know how long they can do this without going broke. 

Happy belated birthday.  Those doctor notes will become a big deal, especially to the many of 70+ crowd who are healthier than many younger people. 

 

Given the moves in the past day or two by Disney, more on the park side, but it would seem to indicate they believe it will be a while before leisure travel gets back to normal, I would bet you will see your cruise cancelled by them.  

 

I tend to believe the ships will probably at least in the near term when cruising starts again, probably do some sort of testing to those without proof of immunity. If what has been said is true many get it and don't realize they have it, thus could be immune without knowing it as well, that may prove to be a good thing for many getting back to normal. Not sure where/how the 15 minute test gets plugged into the check-in process.  It would be best before bags are handed over and folks move thru the terminal etc.  Also, somehow those getting tests and awaiting results would have to be segregated from each other so if one came up positive, they wouldn't have contaminated a bunch of fellow cruisers who then would also be denied boarding. 

 

Given many travel a bit more than just a quick drive to the port, somehow ensuring folks are clear to travel before they leave home would be idea, but if they get contaminated on the way to the ship (as others have said before) then that becomes a problem, and worse the airlines wouldn't want that passenger aboard a flight again either, at least until they test negative a couple of times, which could be a lengthy wait in seclusion away from home. 

 

As much as I would really love to be cruising again, I bet it will be several months in order for things to calm down and protective measures to be put in place making it safe to cruise again. 

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, firefox247 said:

 

I suspect that itineraries will be modified when available and cancelled if they cannot find compatible ports.  I don't believe that Royal can possibly roll out their entire fleet with the number of ports that are closed, but I do not believe for a second that they are just going to sit on the sidelines and sit by until every port is open.  They'll sail every ship to CocoCay and Labadee if they have to.

 

Whatever it takes, I'm sure they will sail if at all possible.  I mean, just think about how long it took them to cancel up to May 12 when the writing was on the wall for forever.  Or how long it took them to modify itineraries to places (like Canada) that have closed to them.  Royal will sail if they can sail.  The destinations are secondary.

 

To some people, me included, destinations are why we cruise. In my opinion, the ship experience has deteriorated over the last 5-6 years, to the point that it is just a little better than the flight to get there.

If this lingers out to the fall, cruising, if still viable, will be just a shell of itself, and will be a distant memory. Greed and lack of common sense never works. 

[PhillyFan33579]

7 hours ago, time4u2go said:

That is so not true.  The CDC estimates that there have been 24,000 – 63,000 deaths from the flu during the current flu season.  There have been about 58,000 deaths from Covid-19 so far, increasing by at least 5000 per day.

Not sure where you are getting your stats, but only 7402 people have died from the coronavirus in the US so far. Looks like you are comparing flu deaths in the US to world wide deaths from the coronavirus, which isn’t a valid comparison.  

[Coralc]

If the President's Cruise and the fall transatlantic on Allure even happen, I am starting to think that they are looking less and less attractive. I would be surprised if the president even shows up....Would that be an indicator that it is safe to cruise?  .  (I'm not on that cruise)

But normally, as much as I love sea days...the number of sea days on the TA might be a little worrisome. (and I am on that cruise) 

[beerman2]

5 hours ago, firefox247 said:

There is no way most of these things are going to happen in the long term.  All of them involve manpower and/or keeping the ship (or ship's venues) much less full than they have been traditionally.  That means tons of revenue and profit down the drain when they need it most.  Keep in mind how resistant the industry was to shutting down to begin with.  You think they suddenly have had a come to Jesus moment and will stay off the ocean until they are sure COVID-19 is under control?  I doubt it.

 

As others have said, the cruise lines do not have that kind of time.  Ideally, they would wait until cases have dropped off to zero, then wait a couple weeks after that, then slowly start getting boats more and more full, but I don't see that happening.  Once the public health agencies soften their language on cruising, I fully expect cruising to start up again almost immediately.

 

Initially, I do think we will see some of the restrictions that they can easily implement like buffet rules, sanitation, temp checks, etc., but they aren't going to leave half the balconies empty or anything like that.  They want money.  They'll risk it.  And the moment COVID-19 is in the back mirror, all the new restrictions that cost them money will likely be gone.

Cruise lines won't start " immediately " after the stay at home I'd lifted. If you follow any of Cheng75's wisdom it will be 4-6 weeks for a ship to sail.

 

He knows the inner workings of cruise lines/ships.

1) IMO would be getting workers back to the US from their homelands, which would result in testing.

So with no more extensions at the earliest would be mid June. Heck I don't believe Disney is taking any June reservations.

[danv3]

26 minutes ago, irzero said:

That's how the immune system works.

You dont get the same virus twice. It's possible a different strain could infect you but similar strains also invoke immune responses. Vaccines improve the immune response. Viral infection is impossible to stop. Its viral load that results in serious illness.
 

 

Tell that to the CDC.  

 

Q: Can people who recover from COVID-19 be re-infected with SARS-CoV-2?

A: The immune response, including duration of immunity, to SARS-CoV-2 infection is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html

 

Most coronaviruses do not result in lifetime immunity:

 

From the immune system’s perspective, some pathogens are unforgettable. One brush with the viruses that cause chickenpox or polio, for instance, is usually enough to protect a person for life. Other microbes, however, leave less of an impression, and researchers still aren’t entirely sure why. This applies to the four coronaviruses known to cause a subset of common cold cases, says Rachel Graham, an epidemiologist and coronavirus expert at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Immunity against these viruses seems to wane in a matter of months or a couple of years, which is why people get colds so frequently.

 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-you-become-immune-sars-cov-2-180974532/

 

It's far from certain--at least based on the information known to date--to conclude that one COVID-19 infection results in long-term or permanent immunity.  

 

[Hoopster95]

I would like to offer the following two videos.... they're a little long, but two of the best that I have watched in full over the last week. Almost everything discussed here on this forum is discussed in both these videos... one by a texan doctor and another by the leading virus professional in Korea... super interesting seeing this from their point of view.

 

It is absolutely clear, and to me the implications to cruising are also crystal clear once watching these videos. 

Super informative and excellent/easy to understand and follow.

 

I strongly recommend everyone here to take the time (especially with the English subtitles) to watch the entire video throughout as there are specific point and topics that are absolute key not only to cruising/travel, but life in general.

(ie. timing, a 2nd wave, testing, droplets/social distancing, etc etc)

 

South Korea (full of facts, real life data, and truths)

 

Texan doctor

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Hoopster95

[bobmacliberty]

Thanks for posting Hoopster.  The Korean video was very interesting...especially the bit about wearing a mask.  It hit me strong that the Korean doctor finished by saying something like, "this is science.  We need to remain humble".  The second guy immediately described himself as world famous, starting talking about his degrees, the number of books that he has published, and called his patients his "followers".  I didn't make it past the 30 second mark of the second video.

[eel]

Thanks for posting those videos Hoopster95! 
 

I liked the first video much better than the second.  I did learn a few things from the second video but I did not care for the presenters style.

[ThirstyCruiser]

The 1st video should be mandatory viewing.

 

There are 2 key points in that video that to me make it abudentatly clear cruising is not starting anytime soon. First, a vaccine is > 1 year away in the most optimistic yet still realistic scenario. Second, when he describes the uptick in new cases in areas where things were getting better due to travelers bringing fresh cases back in.

 

Thousands of people from far and wide showing up in a port city every few days to embark on the next cruise? A hulking ship pulling into a destination port with thousands of people from far and wide about to spill into the crowded streets and shops? In both cases many of those people having just passed thru airports days ago? 

 

Once this thing finally starts dying down (weeks away at best), what municipality is going to fling its arms wide open and welcome thousands of people for something as discretionary as a cruise just when they finally are catching a break?

 

My last cruise was in 2019. It was a great one. Fond memories.

My last cruise was in 2019. Huh. I always wanted an RV....seems like a more viable and desirable vacation choice, to me. Land cruisin'. A socially distant mode of vacationing.

[datolim]

 

 

 

It is a whole new ball game now.
Ccl should be rated as a resort and theme park business.
However the brand has been tainted with the many deaths and nightmare incidences.
High capex should be balanced somewhat with the multiple cheap labour from the third world countries.
High profit in previous years is now history and a whole new world of cruising should be judged on which country would give them access and whether guests would still want to cruise under very different conditions

[GeroWA]

On 4/4/2020 at 5:10 AM, zekekelso said:

Free Beer!*

 

* to be fair, I don't actually think free beer is necessary. I'm just putting the idea out there on the hopes it catches on. 

Well one things for sure, it won't be Corona! 

Mexico has halted the production of beer as it doesn't fall I within their definition of an essential service category

[RKHOOKER]

There’s a criminal investigation underway into how 2700 passengers from the Ruby Princess were allowed to disembark with over 260 of them now positive to corona virus.  The Ruby Princess is the epicentre of the outbreak in Australia.  85% of positive cases in Australia are linked to this ship.  Apparently Carnival lied about the state of the health of their passengers (Covid19 symptoms throughout the ship) before our health & port authorities allowed them to disembark.  

I can’t see any cruises departing or stopping in Australia until there’s a vaccine or the virus has been eliminated totally.

[Billy Baltic]

8 hours ago, ThirstyCruiser said:

There are 2 key points in that video that to me make it abudentatly clear cruising is not starting anytime soon. First, a vaccine is > 1 year away in the most optimistic yet still realistic scenario.

All cruise-lines will be bankrupt if a vaccine is a prerequisite to restarting that business. 

[megsie]

I would think lot of borders around the world will not reopen until there is a vaccine available globally.

That's the medical opinion reported from a research institute here.

Even if here in Australia we get down to zero in 3 to 4 months, all contacts of positive cases have to be contactable and tested as well. We are in self isolation nationwide with severe restrictions and possibly with some restrictions until Christmas.

The report suggested it would be 12-18 months before borders would possibly open and when a vaccine is available globally.

But really who knows where we are heading with this damned virus.

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by megsie

[B-52]

One thing to keep in mind....this pandemic is changing us, and society as a whole...some things will never be the same.

Myself, I am not sure when I will ever start to shake hands again, or hug a close friend, relative?

When will I feel comfortable going to a movie, concert, crowded ball game.
Use public transportation.
Am I going to become one of those people we would see wearing a mask for no apparent reason? (generally Asians)

 

Equate this to a cruise ship....will people feel comfortable  sitting in the main theater? Ice rink? How about the buffet? Yes you sanatize your hands but still sit on top of each other.
How do you enjoy a cruise and distant yourself from others?

Heck, I can't see myself getting past the muster drill.....

 

Add to all that the bad press the cruise industry has gotten, and peoples perception about cruises.

Its not going to happen overnight....someone is not going to say, "Ok, on such and such a day, at such and such a time, everybody and everything can go back to normal" ALL cruises can resume on September 1st....
It is going to take a long, long time