Do you REALLY think we'll be cruising this year?

[mayleeman]

1 hour ago, mac_tlc said:

In CT, it is not relevant to the governors decisions what is happening in Wyoming.

 

The states' decisions can absolutely impact each other. Watch what happens elsewhere as the southern states start reopening beaches and restaurants. Does anyone think people from closed down states will just stay home? Travelers from places where spread is not controlled will escape to the open states, taking their exposures with them. Travellers from states with lowering numbers will bring more infections back, dropping some along the way.

 

Remember, we are talking about hundreds of thousands who use the beaches in the summer. Continued (I think expanded) spread is virtually inevitable.

 

Anyone wanting opening this soon is not paying attention to the actual national spread likely as a result. Viruses do not respect state lines. We can figure out ways to provide economic assistance where economic conditions get more dire. We cannot resurrect anyone or expand hospitals by thousands of beds.

[drlucy12]

Will the Baltic countries open sooner than Italy or Spain? They have dealt with the virus in a different manner.  The Vasa museum in Stockholm is facing a difficult financial situation right now due to lack of tourists.  Will these countries be open to possible land tours and cruising later? I think everyone wants to return to cruising and our vacations but it has to be done in a responsible manner for the health of everyone involved.  

[mac_tlc]

31 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

 

The states' decisions can absolutely impact each other. Watch what happens elsewhere as the southern states start reopening beaches and restaurants. Does anyone think people from closed down states will just stay home? Travelers from places where spread is not controlled will escape to the open states, taking their exposures with them. Travellers from states with lowering numbers will bring more infections back, dropping some along the way.

 

Remember, we are talking about hundreds of thousands who use the beaches in the summer. Continued (I think expanded) spread is virtually inevitable.

 

Anyone wanting opening this soon is not paying attention to the actual national spread likely as a result. Viruses do not respect state lines. We can figure out ways to provide economic assistance where economic conditions get more dire. We cannot resurrect anyone or expand hospitals by thousands of beds.

Don’t disagree that more infections will occur, but regardless of what GA or any of the “early-openers” does, CT is not even going to think about starting to reopen until June. Neighboring states in the northeast are coordinating plans and decisions. 
 

State to state movement, depending on locale, may be a much later item to completely reopen. FL will reopen before CT, but I’m sure Gov. DeSantis doesn’t want me going to my house in Orlando on day 1. I would think the 14 day self quarantine will remain in place, as will CT’s  Similar restrictions about people from NY, NJ etc. coming to their places in CT. 
 

mac_tlc

Edited April 26, 2020 by mac_tlc

[Mr. Click]

I cannot fine a second source for this yet so take it with a grain of salt for now.

https://nation.com.pk/26-Apr-2020/italy-to-remain-closed-for-tourism-until-end-of-year

[npcl]

2 hours ago, drlucy12 said:

Will the Baltic countries open sooner than Italy or Spain? They have dealt with the virus in a different manner.  The Vasa museum in Stockholm is facing a difficult financial situation right now due to lack of tourists.  Will these countries be open to possible land tours and cruising later? I think everyone wants to return to cruising and our vacations but it has to be done in a responsible manner for the health of everyone involved.  

Depends upon the country.  Norway closed all of its ports to cruise ships very early.

[drlucy12]

40 minutes ago, npcl said:

Depends upon the country.  Norway closed all of its ports to cruise ships very early.

Very true.  Spain and Italy are shut down for the rest of the year (or so I am reading on this board).  Will all countries follow this plan? I can’t see every country in Europe staying closed to tourism for the rest of 2020 but it is all speculation now.  

[Pushka]

9 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

I heard that part of the eventual reopening plan for various business premises including restaurants will call for a ban on air conditioning in addition to social distancing. This will surely prove to be a huge issue for cruise ships in the future. I found this research paper https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

That would be impossible in many countries around the world and I suspect will never happen. 

[Pushka]

4 hours ago, drlucy12 said:

Will the Baltic countries open sooner than Italy or Spain? They have dealt with the virus in a different manner.  The Vasa museum in Stockholm is facing a difficult financial situation right now due to lack of tourists.  Will these countries be open to possible land tours and cruising later? I think everyone wants to return to cruising and our vacations but it has to be done in a responsible manner for the health of everyone involved.  

I'd be staying well away from Stockholm right now. 

[Fouremco]

9 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

I heard that part of the eventual reopening plan for various business premises including restaurants will call for a ban on air conditioning in addition to social distancing. This will surely prove to be a huge issue for cruise ships in the future. I found this research paper https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

The paper you cite makes absolutely no mention of banning air conditioning. Perhaps you could cite the source from whom you heard this information.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, drlucy12 said:

Very true.  Spain and Italy are shut down for the rest of the year (or so I am reading on this board).  Will all countries follow this plan? I can’t see every country in Europe staying closed to tourism for the rest of 2020 but it is all speculation now.  

The countries first priority will be to control spread.

 

Hard to do when you have people from outside the country traveling in.  If you have spread controlled in a given area you can open things up to include mass events, as long as the people are local. You have people coming from all over and any degree of control goes away.

 

Just as tourism was one of the first to be cut, it will be one of the last to open.

[hcat]

Another link re Airline Flight Attendants' concerns..see below.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/04/26/flight-attendants-warning-airlines-stop-flying/#5e90489645a0

 

We  are hoping to move our booked June  flights from NY to Fla into  Nov..but we obviously have no idea what the situation will be. If we can't safely  move our booking, we will lose out as we are flying on on  SW Air credits that expire. .Hope we won't have to drive back and forth this year!

Edited April 26, 2020 by hcat

[IrishKevinCan]

I think there may be cruises by the end of this year and they will be very different.  I am optimistic, but I think seeing how Vegas and Disney open will help provide additional understanding on how public spaces will really work again.

[TeeRick]

I think there is general confusion everywhere about "flattening the curve".  In my view it is very different from "eliminating the curve".  The original intent of social distancing and lock downs was to avoid the unchecked exponential rise of infections leading to hospitalizations and death.   This outcome would overwhelm health care systems, resources, equipment and workers.  A significant time was needed to plan for and deal with expected surges.  Presumably there is a level of cases under a "flattened curve" that the beefed up healthcare systems could then handle.  That level was never expected to be zero.  Even with a vaccine.  That is unrealistic.  Yes there will be hotspots that arise after the society opens again but these should be handled under the new normal that arises after everything that was built and learned.  

[drlucy12]

Just now, TeeRick said:

I think there is general confusion everywhere about "flattening the curve".  In my view it is very different from "eliminating the curve".  The original intent of social distancing and lock downs was to avoid the unchecked exponential rise of infections leading to hospitalizations and death.   This outcome would overwhelm health care systems, resources, equipment and workers.  A significant time was needed to plan for and deal with expected surges.  Presumably there is a level of cases under a "flattened curve" that the beefed up healthcare systems could then handle.  That level was never expected to be zero.  Even with a vaccine.  That is unrealistic.  Yes there will be hotspots that arise after the society opens again but these should be handled under the new normal that arises after everything that was built and learned.  

Very true, This virus will be with us for years.  Hopefully there will be a vaccine or effective treatment in the next 18 months to 2 years.  However viruses mutate which will make vaccine development tricky.  

[tosteve1]

10 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I think there is general confusion everywhere about "flattening the curve".  In my view it is very different from "eliminating the curve".  The original intent of social distancing and lock downs was to avoid the unchecked exponential rise of infections leading to hospitalizations and death.   This outcome would overwhelm health care systems, resources, equipment and workers.  A significant time was needed to plan for and deal with expected surges.  Presumably there is a level of cases under a "flattened curve" that the beefed up healthcare systems could then handle.  That level was never expected to be zero.  Even with a vaccine.  That is unrealistic.  Yes there will be hotspots that arise after the society opens again but these should be handled under the new normal that arises after everything that was built and learned.  

Exactly. And I think some sort of risk analysis will need to be done. Those in high risk health groups may not be able to participate in crowded activities: concerts, cruises, sports events. As far as cruises go, I wonder if the newer mega ships are done for. Even the typical cruise buffet seems unthinkable now. Smaller less crowded ships may be the only way to go. Unfortunately those will be much more expensive and will be unaffordable to many.

[edgee]

16 hours ago, hcat said:

Another link re Airline Flight Attendants' concerns..see below.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/04/26/flight-attendants-warning-airlines-stop-flying/#5e90489645a0

 

We  are hoping to move our booked June  flights from NY to Fla into  Nov..but we obviously have no idea what the situation will be. If we can't safely  move our booking, we will lose out as we are flying on on  SW Air credits that expire. .Hope we won't have to drive back and forth this year!

Per SW Airlines website looks like your air credits MAY NOT expire. SW says expiring credits are now good until September 2022. May want to check out the particulars of your situation and see if the extension applies to your credits.

[FlorenceItaly]

2 minutes ago, edgee said:

Per SW Airlines website looks like your air credits MAY NOT expire. SW says expiring credits are now good until September 2022. May want to check out the particulars of your situation and see if the extension applies to your credits.

This is true.  My account already reflects the 2022 date.

[phoenix_dream]

On 4/26/2020 at 6:50 AM, ECCruise said:

I think one factor that is not being discussed much is that, as far as Europe is concerned, cruisers visiting their cities is not a big positive. If anything, if you consulted most people in Barcelona, Venice, Livorno and a number of other ports, the sentiment would skew strongly to the negative.

Tourism, yes, is important to Spain, Italy, France.  But the tourism that is important to their economy is that which stays 3 or 4 nights in a local hotel and dines 2 or 3 times a day in local restaurants, supporting dozens of local workers.  Cruise passengers that spend a total of 6 hours or so in a port, many of whom only spend a minimal amount on trinkets, who carry food from the ship or don't eat outside at all are not big drivers for an area's economy.  If you sit down with many of these residents and watch their smiles when the cruisers leave, as we have, you would not be thinking that they are dying to have cruise ships visit again before a reasonable time.

I think that is a very valid point, and Europe is not the only area.  I think ports like those on the west coast of the US, as well as ports in Canada, Bermuda, Alaska, and the northeastern US are in the same situation.  Yes, the income is nice, but it is not significant enough to make a real difference financially.  With the exception of Alaska perhaps, they can get all the tourism income they need (if any at all!) from land visitors who can be better controlled.  That is likely true for some Mexico ports as well.  

 

Caribbean islands are a different story.  The vast majority of them would sufferer significantly if cruises are not allowed back soon.  A tough decision for them as at the same time I can't imagine they want people from all over the world possibly bringing the virus with them.  If they do open, they may put some restrictions in place, like requiring people to wear facemasks in public except when on their beaches.  Not a fun way to vacation IMHO.

 

 

[Saab4444]

22 hours ago, npcl said:

Depends upon the country.  Norway closed all of its ports to cruise ships very early.

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/joint-survey-shows-status-northern-european-cruise-ports

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, phoenix_dream said:

I think that is a very valid point, and Europe is not the only area.  I think ports like those on the west coast of the US, as well as ports in Canada, Bermuda, Alaska, and the northeastern US are in the same situation.  Yes, the income is nice, but it is not significant enough to make a real difference financially.  With the exception of Alaska perhaps, they can get all the tourism income they need (if any at all!) from land visitors who can be better controlled.  That is likely true for some Mexico ports as well.  

 

Caribbean islands are a different story.  The vast majority of them would sufferer significantly if cruises are not allowed back soon.  A tough decision for them as at the same time I can't imagine they want people from all over the world possibly bringing the virus with them.  If they do open, they may put some restrictions in place, like requiring people to wear facemasks in public except when on their beaches.  Not a fun way to vacation IMHO.

 

 

While some Caribbean islands would see the financial benefit of opening up, they also know that they simply aren't equipped to handle any outbreak of COVID-19 resulting from a visiting cruise. I suspect that they may want cruise lines to first demonstrate that they can in fact sail virus free for a period of time before being willing to take a chance on opening their ports.

[llawrence]

Today I spent some time reading the official CDC guidelines to reopening cruising..there are several documents on the CDC website about this.....most recently updated last week...the guidelines seem very explicit and harsh....according to what I read, the cruise lines have to be able to control any outbreak of any communicable illness on board, therefore not using any port resources.  It also listed the types  and depth of medical facilities on board most ships.  You can go to cdc cruise guidelines to find this. Too many directives from cdc to list .

[yorky]

1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

While some Caribbean islands would see the financial benefit of opening up, they also know that they simply aren't equipped to handle any outbreak of COVID-19 resulting from a visiting cruise. I suspect that they may want cruise lines to first demonstrate that they can in fact sail virus free for a period of time before being willing to take a chance on opening their ports.

I can’t see how that would ever be possible with any virus. The world is full of viruses which all have the ability to mutate do they not ?

[Roger88]

I dont see a single reason not too. Many countries (including) Europe started getting rid of all kinds of limitations. I am sure it wont be long till the US will put down the limitations too. The nearest month that is more likely to have all the cruises back is June in my opinion. Not May. May is too early, there can be another break. June sounds way too promising and I have already seen many people booking for this summer 

[llawrence]

I agree.....The directive said they have to come up with a plan to do that...I am not an expert and may have misinterpreted what I read...but I don’t think so..the information is available on the CDC website.......you may have to jump around a bit...had nothing else to do today so just researched...

[Fouremco]

11 minutes ago, yorky said:

I can’t see how that would ever be possible with any virus. The world is full of viruses which all have the ability to mutate do they not ?

Really??? Given the context, I thought it very obvious that the reference is to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).