SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[Lois R]

Hi friends, not sure if any of you have seen this article?  It is concerning re-starting of cruising..........

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5599/

 

Another task force..........wonder if it will do any better than the one that is in place.......oh wait,

they don't even have that one anymore..........

[Stumblefoot]

1 hour ago, Lois R said:

Hi friends, not sure if any of you have seen this article?

Thanks for sharing, Lois.  If the major cruise lines are going to submit their detailed health and safety protocols before the Sep 21 deadline, then I guess that must mean tomorrow since it’s the last business day before the deadline.

 

I highly doubt this bill will become an act.  It looks like nothing more than political posturing to me.

[Lois R]

46 minutes ago, Stumblefoot said:

Thanks for sharing, Lois.  If the major cruise lines are going to submit their detailed health and safety protocols before the Sep 21 deadline, then I guess that must mean tomorrow since it’s the last business day before the deadline.

 

I highly doubt this bill will become an act.  It looks like nothing more than political posturing to me.

My thoughts exactly....... this weekend we are going to have over 200,000 deaths....it is as if those people and

their families don't matter.

[mrlevin]

I am surprised that there has been no mention (I could have missed it) here that Silversea cancelled additional cruises this morning:

 

https://www.silversea.com/information-on-itinerary-changes.html

 

Really affects OZ/NZ itineraries.

 

Marc

[Stumblefoot]

14 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

I am surprised that there has been no mention (I could have missed it) here that Silversea cancelled additional cruises this morning:

And yet, the Christmas & New Year’s voyage on the Muse is still listed as a go.

 

Yeah.  Right.  The Muse schedule is about as genuine as a $3 bill.

[Aussieflyer]

2 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

And yet, the Christmas & New Year’s voyage on the Muse is still listed as a go.

 

Yeah.  Right.  The Muse schedule is about as genuine as a $3 bill.

Strongly suspect that the 20 Dec resumption (Sydney to Auckland) will not go ahead. Australia had extended the  ban on cruises until 17 December quite a few weeks ago and it is only today that the SS website was updated -  even yesterday it was showing the  31 October cruise.  They certainly don't seem on top of it.

[jollyjones]

19 hours ago, chrism23 said:

 

I hope you are okay after getting slammed, by what is it now, 3 hurricanes, and it looks like Teddy might be another one.  Thinking of you as you probably have been without power most of the summer.  Mother nature is turning into a real *****.

Um Chris, not quite sure where you're coming from? But thanks for caring!

Bermuda has been hit only by Paulette, no others this summer as far as I recall, and while over half the island lost power, most were restored within 24 to 48 hours. I'm not actually on Bermuda right now but knew that my power was out only fairly briefly because I could log into my account at Belco.bm and check my smart meter. Bermuda is a thousand miles north of the Caribbean and has a very sophisticated infrastructure for such a tiny island.

And yes, Teddy is threatening but with a bit of luck will recurve before reaching us, passing east will give us the weaker side, and he may lose some steam going over the upwelling from Paulette.

If nothing else, Paulette has already done the pruning of the weakest trees and vegetation!

 

Hope we're all cruising again before the next hurricane season. I've got the Moon booked for next September, fingers crossed.

[Stumblefoot]

40 minutes ago, Aussieflyer said:

Strongly suspect that the 20 Dec resumption (Sydney to Auckland) will not go ahead.

Completely agree!

[rojaan19]

Just my 2 cents worth  but I am  predicting  no  cruising   between Australia/NZ before March.

[chrism23]

On 9/16/2020 at 2:03 PM, tosteve1 said:

I have asked probably twenty people in the last two days and have not had a single positive response!  

This is absolutely insane.  I can more than understand if a vaccine is rushed through, ignoring the protocols governing testing and other safety precautions, i.e. if some sort of vaccine is rushed through before the election, but to refuse a vaccine that has successfully gone through all of the trials, and has been vetted by responsible organizations, not only endangers the individuals refusing, but it will also prevent us, those who travel and get a safe vaccine, from most travel because there will still be high infection rates and many destinations will remain locked down.  If the anti-vaxers want to risk their children getting measles or a similar disease, for me, so what, its Darwinian natural selection, a winnowing of stupid people.  But not for COVID, which effects all of us wanting to travel again.  

I do have an interesting and not opinionated question here, that bears on us going forward.  Many current journal and newspaper articles are discussing a COVID vaccine being as effective as a flu vaccine which in a good year is around 50%.  Does immunity for 50% of the people, with no way of knowing in advance if you are one of the 50% or not, provide a sufficient degree of security for the cruise industry to reopen and for you to return to the sea.  Unfortunately for me it doesn't.  A 50% effective vaccine may as well be 0.  Perhaps some sort of anti-body test may be developed to indicate whether an individual may have immunity or not but right now antibody tests are worthless.  If we and the industry waits for a vaccine to be near 100% effective, like polio or measles, none of us may ever get to sea again.  Something to think about.  

[brimary]

57 minutes ago, rojaan19 said:

Just my 2 cents worth  but I am  predicting  no  cruising   between Australia/NZ before March.

2022??

 

[kimanjo]

2 hours ago, chrism23 said:

This is absolutely insane.  I can more than understand if a vaccine is rushed through, ignoring the protocols governing testing and other safety precautions, i.e. if some sort of vaccine is rushed through before the election, but to refuse a vaccine that has successfully gone through all of the trials, and has been vetted by responsible organizations, not only endangers the individuals refusing, but it will also prevent us, those who travel and get a safe vaccine, from most travel because there will still be high infection rates and many destinations will remain locked down.  If the anti-vaxers want to risk their children getting measles or a similar disease, for me, so what, its Darwinian natural selection, a winnowing of stupid people.  But not for COVID, which effects all of us wanting to travel again.  

I do have an interesting and not opinionated question here, that bears on us going forward.  Many current journal and newspaper articles are discussing a COVID vaccine being as effective as a flu vaccine which in a good year is around 50%.  Does immunity for 50% of the people, with no way of knowing in advance if you are one of the 50% or not, provide a sufficient degree of security for the cruise industry to reopen and for you to return to the sea.  Unfortunately for me it doesn't.  A 50% effective vaccine may as well be 0.  Perhaps some sort of anti-body test may be developed to indicate whether an individual may have immunity or not but right now antibody tests are worthless.  If we and the industry waits for a vaccine to be near 100% effective, like polio or measles, none of us may ever get to sea again.  Something to think about.  

I really don't see how cruising can re-start.  There WILL be cases on ships.  And possibly very sick, potential deaths. Who will care for these pax? Hospital wards on a ship? Taking them off at a foreign port? And the legal ramifications.  Will you sign a form you will not sue?  And travel insurance has not covered pandemics.  

The AeroNabs in the video below might be a part of the solution to the puzzle.  Self administer the product as a prophylaxis for protection. Cruiseline requiring it.  As would essential workers.  All this if the vaccine is only 50%.

 

The AeroNab discussion listed below.

 

 UCSF has a new Grand Rounds up. I encourage you to watch. Even if it's just the 2 segments I highlight.

 

2  pieces.  What incredible scientists are doing!!  We might make it thru this ( despite the current administrations ineptitude).

 

Starting At minute 1:01:00    Discovery of Aerosolized Nanobodies aka AeroNabs( from Camel/Llama family). Could be a way forward, maybe even better than a vaccine. Technical, yes, but I could certainly follow.

 

Also, at minute 32:20 a fantastic theory explaining how masking might be the reason cases are up, but deaths are down. You get a smaller exposure, which means your viral load is smaller, hence a milder, if not asymptomatic case. All while wearing a mask. A simple mask, for pete's sake.

 

 

 

 

 

[Aussieflyer]

17 hours ago, rojaan19 said:

Just my 2 cents worth  but I am  predicting  no  cruising   between Australia/NZ before March.

Much as I would love your predication to be wrong I must agree. Just because the AU and NZ governments may let the ships dock anywhere that doesn't mean they can immediately start cruising. There needs to be a long enough lead time for the ships to arrive from where they are currently sitting.

 

[tosteve1]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/travel/virused-cruise-ships.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Travel
Gotta love cruise lovers!

[worldtraveller99]

Have just received a Silversea brochure for 2021/22 with an iguana on the front. It talks about Europe cruises (and expedition cruises) but no mention of the Muse or Alaska - which we have postponed from July 2020 to July 2021. Does anyone know if that cruise is still planned to sail? Thank you if you have information.

[chrism23]

Just my two cents which is about what its worth, but I feel that there will be no sailing in 2021.  I know that will be a very unpopular statement here.  But I think that nearly everyone here agrees that a vaccine is needed before the cruise industry resumes.  In looking at the timeline, even Trump is now saying that a vaccine will not have widespread availability until the first or second quarters of 2021, which means it will be impossible to get a vaccine to a significant portion of the population until late 2021 at the earliest.  The task facing the cruise industry is even more daunting, because a vaccine will have to reach the public in the ports where cruise ships stop.  Last night I was thinking of all the small businesses in Alaska that rely on cruise ship trade.  This was because I saw a huge hawk in our backyard and I thought of the raptor recovery center in Sitka which must be struggling mightly to stay open.  Around the world there are probably thousands of businesses with similar problems.  So, for example, an Alaskan cruise to sail a vaccine must reach Sitka, Ketchikan, and all the other ports of call.    I know no one wishes to think of how difficult this will be.  I have 2 cruises booked for 2021 and I, baring a miracle, will be cancelling both after the new year.  Cancelling early because of a continuing concern about the viability of the cruise industry to survive in its present form.   This leaves me profoundly unhappy.

[cruiseej]

3 hours ago, chrism23 said:

I feel that there will be no sailing in 2021.  I know that will be a very unpopular statement here.

 

Of course no one here wants that to be true. But I also don't think it will be true.

 

If you read these forums, and the Facebook groups, there are a large number of people ready to cruise, even pre-vaccine, as soon as the cruise lines open the gangway. And there are already tentative cruises operating in some areas with various limitations. I think resumption of cruising will follow what we're seeing in the US and much of the world where people are not confined to their homes. Some people will venture out, knowing there are risks, but trying/hoping to mitigate the risks so they can resume somewhat normal life experiences. Other people who feel they are at significant risk or just want to take every possible precaution won't. I think cruising will be similar. Some people will cruise when there is a cruise they can go on, and others will wait until the coronavirus is much farther in the rear-view mirror.

 

The cruise lines as we know them probably cannot survive financially with no cruising in 2021. Most seem prepared to be able to weather the next 6 months, maybe 9 months, possibly even 12 months -- but at some point the debts become too great and the companies will fold. The only question is whether every country in the world will prevent cruise ships and air travel from taking place, and I suspect the pressure to allow some travel will open at least some of the world.

 

It seems likely that one or more of the vaccines being tested now will be released as safe and somewhat effective. It seems likely that rapid testing will become more widely available. It might take until mid-2021 or later until leisure travelers can widely receive a vaccine, but it seems likely that there will be vaccinated people ready to travel sometime during 2021.

 

Combine all those factors, and I think it's very likely there will be cruising in 2021. Not at full capacity, for certain. With limitations, for certain. And not everyone will be comfortable or ready in the early stages of resumption of travel, but enough people will that it will be feasible. Exactly when, the crystal ball doesn't say -- but I'd be pretty confident it will happen in 2021.

 

Remember that we are only about 6 months into the widespread pandemic, and mid-2021 is still 9 months away. In those 6 months, scientists have learned a lot about the virus (and about human behavior), and two dozen vaccine candidates have been developed and advanced to widespread testing. In another 6-9 months, it's more likely than not that considerable further progress will have been made.

[tosteve1]

Bravo! Well said. And remember, too, a significant portion of the population will never get vaccinated. Personally, I believe vaccinations will be required for international travel. As they have been in the past.

14 minutes ago, cruiseej said:

 

Of course no one here wants that to be true. But I also don't think it will be true.

 

If you read these forums, and the Facebook groups, there are a large number of people ready to cruise, even pre-vaccine, as soon as the cruise lines open the gangway. And there are already tentative cruises operating in some areas with various limitations. I think resumption of cruising will follow what we're seeing in the US and much of the world where people are not confined to their homes. Some people will venture out, knowing there are risks, but trying/hoping to mitigate the risks so they can resume somewhat normal life experiences. Other people who feel they are at significant risk or just want to take every possible precaution won't. I think cruising will be similar. Some people will cruise when there is a cruise they can go on, and others will wait until the coronavirus is much farther in the rear-view mirror.

 

The cruise lines as we know them probably cannot survive financially with no cruising in 2021. Most seem prepared to be able to weather the next 6 months, maybe 9 months, possibly even 12 months -- but at some point the debts become too great and the companies will fold. The only question is whether every country in the world will prevent cruise ships and air travel from taking place, and I suspect the pressure to allow some travel will open at least some of the world.

 

It seems likely that one or more of the vaccines being tested now will be released as safe and somewhat effective. It seems likely that rapid testing will become more widely available. It might take until mid-2021 or later until leisure travelers can widely receive a vaccine, but it seems likely that there will be vaccinated people ready to travel sometime during 2021.

 

Combine all those factors, and I think it's very likely there will be cruising in 2021. Not at full capacity, for certain. With limitations, for certain. And not everyone will be comfortable or ready in the early stages of resumption of travel, but enough people will that it will be feasible. Exactly when, the crystal ball doesn't say -- but I'd be pretty confident it will happen in 2021.

 

Remember that we are only about 6 months into the widespread pandemic, and mid-2021 is still 9 months away. In those 6 months, scientists have learned a lot about the virus (and about human behavior), and two dozen vaccine candidates have been developed and advanced to widespread testing. In another 6-9 months, it's more likely than not that considerable further progress will have been made.

 

[TLCOhio]

23 hours ago, cruiseej said:

It seems likely that one or more of the vaccines being tested now will be released as safe and somewhat effective. It seems likely that rapid testing will become more widely available. It might take until mid-2021 or later until leisure travelers can widely receive a vaccine, but it seems likely that there will be vaccinated people ready to travel sometime during 2021.  Combine all those factors, and I think it's very likely there will be cruising in 2021. Not at full capacity, for certain. With limitations, for certain. And not everyone will be comfortable or ready in the early stages of resumption of travel, but enough people will that it will be feasible. Exactly when, the crystal ball doesn't say -- but I'd be pretty confident it will happen in 2021.   Remember that we are only about 6 months into the widespread pandemic, and mid-2021 is still 9 months away. In those 6 months, scientists have learned a lot about the virus (and about human behavior), and two dozen vaccine candidates have been developed and advanced to widespread testing. In another 6-9 months, it's more likely than not that considerable further progress will have been made.

 

Appreciate these above excellent comments, summary and follow-up from our Pennsylvania neighbor in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia. Agree that a re-opening will not be soon, but it will gradually start to happen during times in early to mid 2021.  Whether it will be be early "mid 2021" or later will take time to work through.  We super enjoyed your area this past weekend as we were at an outdoor weeding (performed by the Mayor of historic Newtown) on Saturday afternoon.  Also, Friday, we enjoy much at the Barnes Foundation with their world-class art collection.  More details and many pictures Saturday morning at the Cooler on this board.  And, additional to be posted later today.

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Outline How They Plan to Cruise Safely” with this sub-headline: "Recommendations include tighter controls to keep infected people from boarding ships and detailed plans for addressing infections on board".

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line  have submitted more than 70 recommendations to federal regulators as to how they plan to protect people on their ships amid the Covid-19 pandemic should they get the go-ahead to resume operations in the U.S.  Recommendations from a panel assembled by the companies include tighter controls to keep infected people from boarding ships, reducing transmission through air management and enhanced sanitation practices, and detailed plans for addressing positive infections aboard.  The recommendations responded to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s request for information on cruise planning, infrastructure and resumption of passenger operations. The CDC has fielded about 6,000 comments from the public on the Federal Register during a feedback period that ends Monday.”

 

Here are more details from this WSJ reporting: "The CDC says cruise ships are hotbeds for virus transmission due to the population density on board. They are more densely populated than cities or other living situations, and decreasing the number of people on board doesn’t end transmission, according to the CDC.  Norwegian Chief Executive Frank Del Rio said the proposed protocols could position cruise lines to limit the pathogen’s spread.  'The layered approach to the protocols will result in a very safe environment I believe [is] safer than you’d find in the general population, safer than if you’re sitting 4 inches away from someone on a crowded airplane on a four-hour flight,' Mr. Del Rio told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.  The panel said it didn’t account for the proposed protocols’ costs in its discussions. Mr. Del Rio said the added expenses aren’t likely to increase voyage prices.  'We’re not counting dollars and cents with this,' Mr. Del Rio said. 'Whatever it is, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the billions of dollars that the industry is losing in lost revenues every day.'  "

 

Oh, that's an interesting question as to whether you are at great risk in being on a long airline flight versus being on a cruise ship??  Either way, that is part of the challenge for a restart of cruising.  Airport terminals, long security lines, airline flights AND being on a cruise ships, all involve a certain type of risk and worry.  Having proven vaccines and and successful cruising will require a period of timing in order to restore confidence for those older and at higher potential risk.   It is going to take time and patience!!

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-norwegian-outline-to-cdc-how-they-plan-to-cruise-safely-11600682405

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,085 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[nowornever]

I suggest that Mr. del Rio & his "panel of experts" be the first to travel along with a volunteer group consisting of 90% aged 65 + & a high percentage of them having underlying but not debilitating conditions. They should engage in "normal" cruise activities while on board.  Then after disembarkation, let's monitor them for COVID for 3'ish weeks.  Only then will we know if it's really safe.  But it does seem only fair that they & their families - maybe moms & dads & aunts & uncles be the ones to test their certainty.  

Edited September 21, 2020 by nowornever
punctuation

[jollyjones]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Frank del Rio and all his family and friends are aboard the first NCL cruise - that's kinda how he operates.

[docruth]

From this morning’s New York Times:

 

“Much of Europe is scrambling to avoid another round of economically devastating widespread lockdowns as new spikes emerge in France, hospitals begin to fill in Spain and officials in the United Kingdom warn that a six-month fight to contain the virus remains ahead.”

 

—snip—>

 

And that little gem comes on the same day as the CDC finally announces on their website (and then un-annouces) that Covid-19 is transmitted in aerosol droplets. You can still find the article in the Internet Wayback Machine on the archived CDC.GOV home page.

 

Suddenly, my April, May and July European cruises seem a lot closer, and now much less likely to sail. I wonder what options the cruise lines will come up with, if there’s a 2nd outbreak in Europe?

 

I was hoping that there was enough time for this thing to die down, or for a vaccine or a therapy to be developed. The timeline for that to happen in time for 2021 was always pretty tight. Now, my optimism has taken yet another hit. Watching the BBC coverage of the protests in Spain, where Spaniards were chanting “basta”, saying they’ve had enough of the restrictions on activities, and want them lifted now, was pretty disheartening too.

 

Is this the start of the “second wave”, the discussion presently making the debate rounds on the news and talk shows? If it is, the prognosis for a near term large scale restart of cruising seems significantly more unlikely.

 

Doc Ruth

Edited September 21, 2020 by docruth

[Lois R]

I just saw this article and thought maybe ya'll would like to read it.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/us-cruises-vow-100-testing-in-plan-for-resuming-sailing/ar-BB19gVMj?ocid=msedgdhp

[chrism23]

1 hour ago, docruth said:

is this the start of the “second wave”, the discussion presently making the debate rounds on the news and talk shows? If it is, the prognosis for a near term large scale restart of cruising seems significantly more unlikely

 

I have stopped using the term "second wave".  The primary reason for this is the first wave really hasn't ended.  Nor do I think there will be a distinct second wave.  The first wave simply is not going to stop.  Think of the spread of the virus as a forest fire.  It gets hot and burns in one place, ebbs in another, then burns somewhere else.  This is going to go on to there is a concerted world wide effort to put out the fires, to kill the virus.  There is a superb piece in Sunday's NYTimes titled "Consider the Virus's Point of View"  by David Quammen.  It should be mandatory reading for anyone wrestling with understanding the virus.  It is both doom and gloom,  "Will ever be rid of it (the virus) entirely, now that it is a human virus.  Probably not.  Will we ever get past the travails of this Covid 19 emergency.  Yes."  The yes follows from his belief that humans are very smart....sometimes.  He is being ever so generous.  To get past the "travails"  the entire world needs to get on the same page and be relentless in mitigation that universally denies the virus more hosts on which to feed.  Is this possible?  I too will say yes only after year after year of putting out fires only to see others start.  At some point in time we may become so weary and so tired of people dying, of economies reeling, that we, and I am going to use a huge word here, that we as a species act in concert to put this fire out.  To kill the virus.  

And please don't believe for one second that a magical vaccine is going to appear that makes us virus proof.  As long as we hold out that hope we delay dealing with the reality of this beast.  At best, in the near future, in everything I have read, the possibility of a vaccine that is 99.9% effective is zero.  At best, initially, the CDC standard for a vaccine's approval and release to the public is 50% effectiveness.  That gives me zero comfort.  Getting world wide consensus on a strategy to deal with virus is analogous to achieving consensus on climate change.  We are doing such a great job with that.  I am sorry.  I just can't keep reading here and nearly everywhere else this magical thinking that a vaccine is around the corner and that it will solve all our problems. 

[clo]

1 hour ago, Lois R said:

I just saw this article and thought maybe ya'll would like to read it.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/us-cruises-vow-100-testing-in-plan-for-resuming-sailing/ar-BB19gVMj?ocid=msedgdhp

I'm thinking, in addition to testing(s), there will be mandatory masks, social distancing and reduced capacity at a minimum. Since that's what states are doing I'd think the feds would do at least that much.