SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[philipb]

6 hours ago, alexandria said:

Considering that the first recommendations from the cruise industry were just released on Monday, I can certainly forsee a scenario where it is at least another four to six months before US cruises resume while all of this is hashed out.

 

 

I think we shall continue to see month-by-month cancellations by SS and the other cruise lines and that mid-2021 is the absolute earliest that cruising might re-commence. Rather a lot hangs on the spread of Covid-19 in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and how long the cruise lines can survive financially. And, of course, whether a vaccine comes on-stream.

[clo]

Just saw this about a mutation that may make it more contagious.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/09/23/coronavirus-may-have-mutated-to-become-more-contagious-study-finds/#7f899fa5365c

[Daveywavey70]

I’m hoping to bugger off on a Hurtigruten on 04/01 to the fjords on the 12 night return postal route. Not handing over any cash yet though, especially considering our latest announcements in Wales today! We are slightly easier then England, they have to be all closed up for 10pm, in Wales last orders in bars and restaurants is 10pm.

[crusinbanjo]

8 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

It makes me exceedingly sad to agree.  It brings to mind a song by Reba Mcentire several years ago entitled “If I Had Only Known” when I think back about our January cruise on the Wind.   I can’t help but wonder if that might have been our last cruise.  I hope not but......

I have thought the exact same thing about our January 2020 cruise on the Wind...  wonder if we were on the same cruise?

 

[Randyk47]

1 hour ago, crusinbanjo said:

I have thought the exact same thing about our January 2020 cruise on the Wind...  wonder if we were on the same cruise?

 

That would be incredible but a bit unfortunate too since we didn’t meet.  We cruised on the Wind departing January 23, 2020.   We disembarked February 3, 2020.

[crusinbanjo]

2 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

2 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

That would be incredible but a bit unfortunate too since we didn’t meet.  We cruised on the Wind departing January 23, 2020.   We disembarked February 3, 2020.

Yep, we were on that cruise!  Hope we can do it again someday.

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by crusinbanjo

[Stumblefoot]

16 hours ago, tgh said:

One option is to create 'in house'  travel insurance that covers all the  possibilities.

Or, do what this new luxury cruise line is going to do by providing emergency medical evacuation insurance and return-to-home insurance for all its passengers included in their cruise fare; Atlas Ocean Voyages

[chrism23]

17 hours ago, clo said:

I don't believe that. What do you base it on?

 

I absolutely agree with Clo.  This is getting to be old hat, and I think we all have to come to a consensus on the issue of "a vaccine" and put it behind us.  Yes, in all probability there will be a vaccine(s) next year.  But there is not one single scientist that has a clue as to how effective that vaccine will be.  The only thing this is (was) known for certain was that for a vaccine to be deemed effective by the CDC, once the gold standard of scientific data, requires a proven effectiveness of 50% to roll it out to the American public.  After yet another debacle this week at the CDC, changing the guidance on aerosol spread, anything they say is going to be called into question, and will require numerous third party confirmations to be credible.  

I think one thing every scientist agrees on is that the vaccine(s) will not be anywhere 99% effective.  The best we can do is to use to guess the effectiveness is the flu vaccine, which usually ranges from 35-65% effective.  As I have said before, taking a mid point, 50% is not high enough to make me feel at all comfortable.  Or as Terry TLC OHIO noted above there is a chance that a combination of anti-virals, as with HIV, might achieve a rate of effectiveness of 90% or more.  As someone who was involved in development of that drug 'cocktail' it took well over 10 years.

The point that needs to be made here, and underlined, is that so many people are relying on the development of a vaccine that will be 90+ % effective in the immediate future, say early 2021. They are basing their travel plans, and more importantly their hopes, that this will l be the case.  This is magical thinking.  Achieving such efficacy, and then rolling it out, so that even a simple majority of Americans are inoculated, is 100% impossible.  It is not going to happen, no matter what we are told by our leaders.  Take one simple fact, the distribution of 2 of the vaccines entering stage 3 trails require it to be transported and stored at -70 degrees centigrade or -94 degrees fahrenheit.  We are talking about 300,000,000 doses here or twice that if 2 shots are required.    There is no infrastructure to do this.  To their credit, and the promise of immense profit, both Fedex and the USPS are beginning to develop prototypes to be able to do this but this work is in its infancy.  This is yet another area, such as the production of N95 masks, which is a crisis once again, where the Defense Production Act should be invoked, and ultra cold storage devices and a corresponding delivery system should also be going forward at 'warp speed'.  By not doing so delays of many more months will once again occur.  

What I propose here is that any discussion of an approved and effective  vaccine in the first half of 2021 that will solve our problems be deleted and discussed here no longer, the same as posts that deal with politics.  Creating such false expectations will result in people being hurt, frustrated and disappointed. As well as spending money, buying airfare, reserving hotels and all that goes a long with cruising.   As a matter of moral responsibility this is not what we should be encouraging or doing.  I don't know who moderates this board, but this message needs to go forward.    

 

[worldtraveller99]

I agree Chrism23, though what about those of us who, in Spring,  took the FCC for 2021 and rebooked our July Alaska cruise? It is proving impossible for SS to admit that may not go, so again we wait until nearly the day for it to be cancelled - and this time I haven't booked the flights, so not sure how we would get there even if it was not cancelled.

[alexandria]

38 minutes ago, chrism23 said:

 

I absolutely agree with Clo.  This is getting to be old hat, and I think we all have to come to a consensus on the issue of "a vaccine" and put it behind us.  Yes, in all probability there will be a vaccine(s) next year.  But there is not one single scientist that has a clue as to how effective that vaccine will be.  The only thing this is (was) known for certain was that for a vaccine to be deemed effective by the CDC, once the gold standard of scientific data, requires a proven effectiveness of 50% to roll it out to the American public.  After yet another debacle this week at the CDC, changing the guidance on aerosol spread, anything they say is going to be called into question, and will require numerous third party confirmations to be credible.  

I think one thing every scientist agrees on is that the vaccine(s) will not be anywhere 99% effective.  The best we can do is to use to guess the effectiveness is the flu vaccine, which usually ranges from 35-65% effective.  As I have said before, taking a mid point, 50% is not high enough to make me feel at all comfortable.  Or as Terry TLC OHIO noted above there is a chance that a combination of anti-virals, as with HIV, might achieve a rate of effectiveness of 90% or more.  As someone who was involved in development of that drug 'cocktail' it took well over 10 years.

The point that needs to be made here, and underlined, is that so many people are relying on the development of a vaccine that will be 90+ % effective in the immediate future, say early 2021. They are basing their travel plans, and more importantly their hopes, that this will l be the case.  This is magical thinking.  Achieving such efficacy, and then rolling it out, so that even a simple majority of Americans are inoculated, is 100% impossible.  It is not going to happen, no matter what we are told by our leaders.  Take one simple fact, the distribution of 2 of the vaccines entering stage 3 trails require it to be transported and stored at -70 degrees centigrade or -94 degrees fahrenheit.  We are talking about 300,000,000 doses here or twice that if 2 shots are required.    There is no infrastructure to do this.  To their credit, and the promise of immense profit, both Fedex and the USPS are beginning to develop prototypes to be able to do this but this work is in its infancy.  This is yet another area, such as the production of N95 masks, which is a crisis once again, where the Defense Production Act should be invoked, and ultra cold storage devices and a corresponding delivery system should also be going forward at 'warp speed'.  By not doing so delays of many more months will once again occur.  

What I propose here is that any discussion of an approved and effective  vaccine in the first half of 2021 that will solve our problems be deleted and discussed here no longer, the same as posts that deal with politics.  Creating such false expectations will result in people being hurt, frustrated and disappointed. As well as spending money, buying airfare, reserving hotels and all that goes a long with cruising.   As a matter of moral responsibility this is not what we should be encouraging or doing.  I don't know who moderates this board, but this message needs to go forward.    

 

 

Don't you mean the FDA?  The CDC does not approve vaccines nor determine their safety or efficacy.

 

As to your proposal of censorship, I respectfully disagree.  In going back and looking at mention of vaccines for COVID in this forum, most of the posts which reference a vaccine have been from you.  So while it may not have been your intent, it certainly sounds as though you believe that viewpoints that differ from yours be deleted.  However, I submit that the views and opinions of others are just as valid and worthy of consideration as yours.  And while you purport to speak with some measure of authority on the subject, I also believe that readers can also decide for themselves how much weight to accord your comments and opinions as they do all other posters here.

 

I am confident that those who frequent Cruise Critic and who view these posts, both yours and others, are capable of balancing the varying views of what the future holds for cruise travel, including considering possible future developments that may reduce and mitigate the damage of COVID such as vaccines and effective treatment modalities.  Hopefully readers do not rely upon the views of any posters here but instead do their own "due diligence" and research and decide the issues for themselves.  Open and respectful dialog can be helpful to that end. 

Edited September 24, 2020 by alexandria
Spelling and grammar.

[zqtchas]

12 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Or, do what this new luxury cruise line is going to do by providing emergency medical evacuation insurance and return-to-home insurance for all its passengers included in their cruise fare; Atlas Ocean Voyages

think i'll check it out! right after i get my 2 free weeks ( if they still hold their end up!) almost there.

[TLCOhio]

4 hours ago, alexandria said:

I am confident that those who frequent Cruise Critic and who view these posts, both yours and others, are capable of balancing the varying views of what the future holds for cruise travel, including considering possible future developments that may reduce and mitigate the damage of COVID such as vaccines and effective treatment modalities.  Hopefully readers do not rely upon the views of any posters here but instead do their own "due diligence" and research and decide the issues for themselves.  Open and respectful dialog can be helpful to that end. 

 

Agree strongly with alexandria from Georgia that there is no need for "censorship" by others to sort out what to believe, share and/or hope for medically in the future.  Those on these Cruise Critic boards are generally pretty smart, savvy and highly experienced.  Plus, in these current times, there are many, many variables and evolving views as to what will work best (or not) for the future.  Plus, many individuals have unique personal medical situations that also must be considered accordingly.  Carefully!!   Etc., etc.!!  Many moving parts are happening with a world-wide medical challenge that is still fairly new with so very many unknowns.  Researching, knowing and learning more can be beneficial.  I am happy that all of us can reach out and seek out added information from around the world to see how these conditions are being addressed.  

 

As an example as to how all of this is changing and evolving, from the Wall Street Journal and their correspondents in London, Paris and Barcelona this morning, they had this headline: “Europe Fights Second Wave of Covid-19 Without Full-Blown Lockdowns" with this sub-head: "Cities tighten local social-distancing restrictions on a continent eager to avoid locking down again”.

 

Here are more of their WSJ story highlights: “Spain, at the forefront of Europe’s second wave of coronavirus infections, is relying on targeted local restrictions to stem contagion. So are France, the U.K. and other countries facing rapid rebounds in infections.  European governments and citizens want to avoid returning to the full-blown lockdowns of early 2020, including widespread business closures and stay-at-home orders, which broke the pandemic’s first wave but also froze European economies.  The cities and regions that have become Europe’s new coronavirus hot spots are so far struggling to configure local, lighter-touch restrictions that let economic recoveries continue but are also effective against the virus.  From Madrid to Marseille to the English Midlands, local interventions range from restrictions on bars to limits on social gatherings and travel. But, so far at least, infections are still rising rapidly in the worst-affected areas.  'These measures are not very effective,' said French epidemiologist Catherine Hill. 'We are headed straight for disaster.' She said France’s government should focus instead on building up mass testing and quickly isolating infected people.  The patchy effectiveness of such efforts depends on local factors, said Keith Neal, an epidemiologist at the U.K.’s University of Nottingham. For instance, the northern town of Bolton suffered a major new Covid-19 outbreak despite local restrictions, after one infected man returned from vacation and went on a pub crawl. Madrid is a major reason why Spain is now recording around 11,000 new coronavirus infections on an average day. In the Madrid region, one in four hospital patients is a Covid-19 case, and 23% of coronavirus tests are coming back positive, a sign that contagion is far from under control.”

 

Clearly in many key parts of Europe, things are going in the wrong direction.  Many "twists and turns" are happening now and will continue to evolve for many months into 2021.  Maybe into late 2021 or early 2022 when cruising and travel conditions get more closer back to "normal"??!!  Just trying to be "realistic" and sharing what I am reading from a variety of credible news sources from around the world. 

 

Full story at: 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-shunning-new-lockdowns-fights-resurgent-coronavirus-with-local-restrictions-11600940232?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,080 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

[Observer]

13 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Or, do what this new luxury cruise line is going to do by providing emergency medical evacuation insurance and return-to-home insurance for all its passengers included in their cruise fare; Atlas Ocean Voyages

 

Didn't SS provide the equivalent of "return to home insurance" to people on cruises that were cancelled midway when COVID erupted?  I know someone who was on the round-South-America cruise and was stuck in Brazil.  S/he says that SS was extraordinary in its care, including chartered planes to various parts of the world and even chauffeured limo from US airports to homes.  I do not believe s/he was charged anything extra for the return to home arrangements, and s/he got a refund for  shortened cruise.

[Stumblefoot]

29 minutes ago, Observer said:

Didn't SS provide the equivalent of "return to home insurance" to people on cruises that were cancelled midway when COVID erupted?

 

Yes, some were taken care of.  But, there is nothing in their parent company's recent proposal that would include such provisions.

 

[nowornever]

Observer, indeed Silversea  took care of all of our transportation in a exemplary way (other than the flight from Recife which was a little iffy) with no charges.  But this was uncharted territory so I would not expect that they would be so generous in the future - now I expect it's  buyer beware.  And with no travel insurance company covering any COVID related issues, it's a very, very dicey situation. I think you must take a big leap of faith to book in early-mid 2021.  So many issues, so much anxiety that we're not able to sail anytime soon.

[Observer]

22 minutes ago, nowornever said:

Observer, indeed Silversea  took care of all of our transportation in a exemplary way (other than the flight from Recife which was a little iffy) with no charges.  But this was uncharted territory so I would not expect that they would be so generous in the future - now I expect it's  buyer beware.  And with no travel insurance company covering any COVID related issues, it's a very, very dicey situation. I think you must take a big leap of faith to book in early-mid 2021.  So many issues, so much anxiety that we're not able to sail anytime soon.

 

It is good to have your confirmation of SS's fine performance in getting people home.

 

I take your point regarding uncharted territory, etc.  Nonetheless, regardless of the T&C of the contract, it's difficult for me to imagine a luxury line like SS leaving guests high and dry if a cruise must be cancelled midway.

 

It may be that this reality is one among numerous factors in making SS and other lines cautious about re-starting.  I gather that the cost of getting guests back from South America on chartered private flights to US, Europe, Australia, etc., would have been considerable

[Tothesunset]

I'm sure the people on here wishing to plan their cruise future are grown-up enough to realise that unsourced musings on CC is not a definitive resource for their needs. 

 

Stifling discussion - even if some of which is plainly nothing more than confirmation bias or wishful thinking - to protect people from themselves seems a little autocratic and outwith the spirit of this forum. 

 

But that's just my wholly unscientific opinion. I hope that doesn't render it unsuitable for posting. 

[tedbear]

To Noworever. Did you get just a cruise credit for the very shortened cruise Rio to FLL, or did Silversea give you a cash refund for the full sector or pro rata ie cash refund less days sailed until Recife? I understand that you flew to Dallas. Did they also reimburse you for medical insurance etc? Thanks in adavance

[TLCOhio]

18 hours ago, Tothesunset said:

I'm sure the people on here wishing to plan their cruise future are grown-up enough to realise that unsourced musings on CC is not a definitive resource for their needs. Stifling discussion - even if some of which is plainly nothing more than confirmation bias or wishful thinking - to protect people from themselves seems a little autocratic and outwith the spirit of this forum. But that's just my wholly unscientific opinion. I hope that doesn't render it unsuitable for posting. 

 

Appreciate these above great comments and follow-up from TTS in the UK  We are all smart folks who can sort out and see the differences between opinions/personal wishes . . . VERSUS . . . realistic facts and science.  This is especially true as we view situations in the context of our own  health and medical conditions. 

 

From CNBC business news earlier this week, they had this headline: “From curfews to calling in the army, here’s what Europe is doing to tackle its coronavirus surge” with these key points and highlights: “Europe is facing the much-feared 'second wave' of coronavirus cases, after a lull in new infections in summer.  There is a reluctance to return to full lockdowns, so other measures are being implemented first.  To date, there have been almost 2.9 million confirmed cases of the virus in Europe and over 186,000 people have died, data from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention shows.”

 

This bring up the "Realism 101" factor that to resume cruising, you also need to have ports to visit.  Europe has always been a popular and busy place for cruising.  BUT, as this story and other reporting indicates, the limits are there for many parts of Europe.  And many questions as to when and how most parts of Europe,  including Barcelona as the largest cruise port, will be operating "normally".  Here was more from this story: "There can be no doubt now that Europe is now facing the much-feared 'second wave' of coronavirus cases, after severe restrictions on public life were lifted and the summer lull in new infections came to an end.  As cases rise rapidly in the region, various European nations are taking action in an effort to stop the surge in infections and prevent a significant rise in fatalities.  Spain has recorded 682,267 infections — the highest number in Europe, and 30,904 deaths, according to the latest Johns Hopkins University data. On Tuesday, more than 10,000 new infections were recorded, up from the previous day’s tally, according to Spanish health ministry data."

 

Full story at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/what-europe-is-doing-to-tackle-its-coronavirus-surge-.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,108 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[Randyk47]

Thanks for the update Terry.  The situation in Europe is at the least concerning if not horrible and unfortunately seems to be in line with the more dire medical predictions.   If there is a saving grace it is that there shouldn’t be any surprise this time around and hopefully the impacted countries individually and collectively move quicker this time to reduce the spread.  From a cruising standpoint the almost non-existent European cruise season is, as it normally would, starting to wind down so potential closed ports in the short run will not be an issue.  Of course now we have to deal with the cancelled or at least delayed trans-Atlantic cruises and what that might mean to the Caribbean season.   With even the more or less permanent Caribbean cruise ships still not sailing the Caribbean season is in my mind much in doubt.   It may well start up in some limited form in the next couple of months but who knows.      
 

On a personal aside I was sitting on my front porch yesterday watching the leafs start to fall from the trees in my front yard.  It struck me that six months ago I was sitting on my porch watching the same trees starting to come to life and hoping the then emerging pandemic would be short lived.   200,000+ US and 1,000,000+ worldwide deaths later and I am not too sure I won’t be sitting on my porch six months from now wondering when will this all end.   Professionally we call that a symptom of Pandemic Fatigue and it’s hard not to let it get to you even if you understand the cause.   

[Lois R]

Hi Randy, Pandemic Fatigue? Sounds pretty logical to me............

[nowornever]

Hi Tedbear. We did indeed fly to DFW - the small/private plane terminal where Mr. Conroy & staff met us & fed us ("us" being the USA pax)  & bussed us to a small Hyatt hotel for 2-3 hours rest.  My understanding was that the Recife-DFW flight was arranged by the State Dept. but I could certainly be wrong. The onward small private planes were chartered by Silversea.  As we were on the entire Grand Voyage, we received a very generous future cruise credit (cash refund was not an option) but it was more than fair in my opinion. We had arranged travel insurance though our own travel advisor so there was no refund but I didn't expect any since we were only 15 or so days from completion of the cruise.  It was quite an experience to say the least & I feel that they did their absolute best under the circumstances. 

[TLCOhio]

1 hour ago, Randyk47 said:

Thanks for the update Terry.  The situation in Europe is at the least concerning if not horrible and unfortunately seems to be in line with the more dire medical predictions.     Professionally we call that a symptom of Pandemic Fatigue and it’s hard not to let it get to you even if you understand the cause.   

 

Agree with Lois ad Ready as to that pesky "Pandemic Fatigue?"!  Great above comments and follow-up by the smart and savvy Randy in Texas.  

 

Nice added "Escape from Brazil" details from nowornever..  Glad it worked out reasonably well under the challenged circumstances. 

 

From the below Wall Street-related web reporting this morning, they had this headline: “Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean Cruise on Barclays Upgrade” with this sub-head: "A Barclays analyst says the worst for the cruise sector 'is in the past' and upgraded Carnival, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean to overweight."

 

Here are some the story highlights: “Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean were higher Friday after a Barclays analyst upgraded the cruise-ship operators to overweight from equal weight and raised her price targets.  Analyst Felicia Hendrix raised her target prices.  '[We] are nearing an inflection point in cruise,' Hendrix said in a note to clients. 'While we may be early, we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive in our coverage universe. Investors who have previously written off cruise stocks should begin to revisit their models.'  The cruise industry has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic, with  a no-sail order from the Centers for Disease Control. That order is scheduled to end on Sept. 30.  'While chances are high ... that the CDC extends the date again (likely into the fourth quarter),' Hendrix said, '...the comments from the agency will be positive and could signal a near-term return to cruise, which could be a catalyst for the shares.'  While a removal or lapse of the no-sail order would be the most positive outcome, the analyst said, a fourth-quarter start date, 'combined with positive language bodes well for sentiment, as it removes uncertainty and, importantly, concerns about liquidity.'  Hendrix said much has changed since she downgraded the cruise sector in June. Cruises have started up in Germany and Italy with no incidents, and bookings data from each of the cruise companies have indicated pent-up demand.  Hendrix also said Carnival said it would dispose of 18 ships, 'which combined with near-term industrywide ship-delivery delays allows the industry to recover over the next several years against a slower supply-growth backdrop.' ”

 

Interesting comments and insights.  Not all positive, nor an immediate fix/answer.  But, it is a sign that things are getting a little closer, maybe, for a slow and gradual re-opening in the months ahead.  Or, by Spring 2021?

 

Full story at:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/carnival-norwegian-royal-caribbean-cruise-on-barclays-upgrade

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 18,862 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

Edited September 25, 2020 by TLCOhio

[Observer]

19 minutes ago, nowornever said:

 My understanding was that the Recife-DFW flight was arranged by the State Dept. but I could certainly be wrong. The onward small private planes were chartered by Silversea.  

 

Were you charged for the Brazil-Texas flight?  I understand that passengers on State Department repatriation flights are charged fares for their travel.  Of course it is possible that it was a State Department flight but Silversea told State not to bill passengers because Silversea would pick up the fares (which I imagine were considerable).

[Stumblefoot]

14 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Interesting comments and insights.  Not all positive, nor an immediate fix/answer.  But, it is a sign that things are getting a little closer, maybe, for a slow and gradual re-opening in the months ahead.

This call makes absolutely no sense to me, other than she is an industry analyst and has to say something.  Why anyone would buy the equity with absolutely no protection after the magnitude of leverage these companies have put on is beyond me.  If one wanted to take a position in these companies, it would have been last spring when they issued 11%+ debt at slightly below par.  Those positions have already paid off handsomely.  IMHO, one can wait at least a couple of years before purchasing cruise line equity for outsized capital gains.

Edited September 25, 2020 by Stumblefoot