WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO RESTART CRUISE SHIPS???

[CGTNORMANDIE]

3 hours ago, ECCruise said:

You can accept all the risk you want, I understand that. 

But you are not going to determine that level of risk. The cruise lines are. And I think that risk will be highly mitigated. 

2 reasons:. Liability. And a major outbreak on a ship when they start sailing ends cruising. Virtually forever. 

If the cruise lines mitigate too long they will be gone anyhow.  Again everyone seems to be dealing with what was.  If a cruise line starts up again you can be sure they will have protocols for immediate evacuation with a prearranged agreement for hospitalization.  Again...we need to think creatively.  Cruise lines are not going to allow a repeat of the Princess debacle where sick pax were held onboard and allowed to infect everyone else.  Understand...we are still learning about CV 19 and we are just now starting to come up with tests, remedies and vaccines.  I realize that a lot of you are dejected and feeling like cruising is over.  Believe me...I have learned in the past three years to develop a positive mind set and shake off the negativity.  We all need to believe that we are going to cruise again!! 

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

If the cruise lines mitigate too long they will be gone anyhow.  Again everyone seems to be dealing with what was.  If a cruise line starts up again you can be sure they will have protocols for immediate evacuation with a prearranged agreement for hospitalization.  Again...we need to think creatively.  Cruise lines are not going to allow a repeat of the Princess debacle where sick pax were held onboard and allowed to infect everyone else.  Understand...we are still learning about CV 19 and we are just now starting to come up with tests, remedies and vaccines.  I realize that a lot of you are dejected and feeling like cruising is over.  Believe me...I have learned in the past three years to develop a positive mind set and shake off the negativity.  We all need to believe that we are going to cruise again!! 

By no means am I saying that I think cruising is over....unless they screw it up.  We have 11 deposited and on the books in the next 18 months.  I think they need everything in order long before the first pax board.  Zero of which they have revealed to date. E.G., I am not sure how they will make arrangements for "immediate evacuation with prearrangement for hospitalization" since the USCG has already said "don't include us in that."

I am positive, largely, in the very long view.  But there is absolutely NO way I am getting back on a ship again (we were shuttled all over the Indian Ocean in March looking for ports that would accept us) until this thing settles out.

Those who are ready to jump on a ship now without specific protocols in place (which there are a good many posters on here), frankly, need their heads examined.  But that is, obviously, their right.

But that attitude, if it results in major problems on the initial cruises, will be what ruins it for the rest of us who take a more reasoned approach.

[Fouremco]

11 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Again...we need to think creatively.

We can think creatively 'till the cows come home, but until the cruise lines provide a safe environment and prove that they can respond appropriately to medical emergencies, many avid cruisers will stay ashore. That's not negativity, that's recognition of the fact that Celebrity and others have a long way to go before reaching that point.

[bEwAbG]

I don't understand why the OP thinks that passengers are the ones who will be coming up with solutions.  Most of us are not developing new tests.  Most of us are not cruiseline executives.   Most of us do not work for CDC.  We as passengers are the ones who are going to make the breakthroughs happen?  By magic?  Happy wishes?  Posts on a message board?

[yorky]

13 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

By no means am I saying that I think cruising is over....unless they screw it up.  We have 11 deposited and on the books in the next 18 months.  I think they need everything in order long before the first pax board.  Zero of which they have revealed to date. E.G., I am not sure how they will make arrangements for "immediate evacuation with prearrangement for hospitalization" since the USCG has already said "don't include us in that."

I am positive, largely, in the very long view.  But there is absolutely NO way I am getting back on a ship again (we were shuttled all over the Indian Ocean in March looking for ports that would accept us) until this thing settles out.

Those who are ready to jump on a ship now without specific protocols in place (which there are a good many posters on here), frankly, need their heads examined.  But that is, obviously, their right.

But that attitude, if it results in major problems on the initial cruises, will be what ruins it for the rest of us who take a more reasoned approach.

The thing is when they resume cruising they will have specific protocols in place just the same way the likes of Emirates have to allow flying to resume. No one is going to 100% protect people from risk, they have to find a level that’s acceptable to them. If that risk is deemed too high for some surely they will just accept cruising is no longer for them. The initial decision to resume cruising will come from the authorities when they deem the risk is at an acceptable level not cruisers. We do though have to respect those individuals willing to cruise at that point because without them there won’t be a cruise industry for others down the line. 

[yorky]

10 minutes ago, bEwAbG said:

I don't understand why the OP thinks that passengers are the ones who will be coming up with solutions.  Most of us are not developing new tests.  Most of us are not cruiseline executives.   Most of us do not work for CDC.  We as passengers are the ones who are going to make the breakthroughs happen?  By magic?  Happy wishes?  Posts on a message board?

Exactly, we will cruise when safeguards are put in place that are seen as acceptable, we then choose to cruise knowing no laws are been broken if the risks are also acceptable to us as individuals.

[ECCruise]

14 minutes ago, yorky said:

The thing is when they resume cruising they will have specific protocols in place just the same way the likes of Emirates have to allow flying to resume. No one is going to 100% protect people from risk, they have to find a level that’s acceptable to them. If that risk is deemed too high for some surely they will just accept cruising is no longer for them. The initial decision to resume cruising will come from the authorities when they deem the risk is at an acceptable level not cruisers. We do though have to respect those individuals willing to cruise at that point because without them there won’t be a cruise industry for others down the line. 

My post clearly points to those who are willing to cruise now with no protocols in place.  

The exact quote: "Those who are ready to jump on a ship now without specific protocols in place (which there are a good many posters on here)"

[yorky]

42 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

My post clearly points to those who are willing to cruise now with no protocols in place.  

The exact quote: "Those who are ready to jump on a ship now without specific protocols in place (which there are a good many posters on here)"

You did but given there are no cruises just now a lack of protocols at this point is mute. 
“But that attitude, if it results in major problems on the initial cruises, will be what ruins it for the rest of us who take a more reasoned approach.”

Again my point being those initial cruises will have protocols in place, not sure how the attitude of wanting to board a cruise ship at that point will cause major problems.

[mnocket]

I posted this on another forum, but it applies here as well.....

 

Just my 2 cents...... 

 

Social Distancing:  From a practical standpoint, social distancing is impossible on a cruise ship - unless the capacity is reduced to a point where it's no longer profitable.  For example, how do they feed everyone and maintain social distancing?  There are a ton of issues here, but to name a few......  what happens to the MDR capacity if those 2-tops that are currently spaced about 4 inches apart are required to be 6 feet apart?  What happens to capacity when those shared 8-tops are eliminated and replaced with 2 or 4-tops?  What happens to capacity when the buffet is converted to another dinning room and pax who previously made a quick pit stop for food now spend 1hr+ eating a served meal?

 

Vaccinations:  A good step forward, but they will likely fall far short of the silver bullet solution many anticipate.  There is little reason to believe that a COVID vaccine will be far more effective than the common flu vaccine - which in a good year is about 50% effective and in a bad year 30% effective.  If you think that the availability of a vaccine is the "All Clear" for the high risk group, you really should read this article from stat.com (a highly respected health site).

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/

 

The Crew:  The crew accommodations are the antithesis of social distancing.  I doubt this can be changed.

 

Passenger Experience:  If social distancing is required, it's hard to imagine that the cruise experience will resemble anything close to what it has been in the past.  This may be acceptable to some, but consider....  when you sit in the main show room, how many people are typically sitting within 6 feet of you?  If those seats are kept empty, what happens to the capacity of the show room?  Even if they add a third evening performance, seating is going to be rationed and many will not get in.  What would your favorite pre-dinner bar be like if seating was spaced for social distancing?  Think chair hogs were a problem?  Just wait until the number of pool lounges are reduced to allow for social distancing.

 

  In the final analysis I think there are currently two mutually exclusive requirements for cruise line recovery: 1) A safe environment, and 2) An enjoyable passenger experience for most.  Until/unless this coronavirus is wiped out, you can have one, but not the other.  I hope I'm wrong and cruise lines find a way to provide a safe environment while not degrading the customer experience significantly.  That would be a very good thing - I'm just not convinced it's possible.

 

[DYKWIA]

8 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Of course the so-called expert claims it won’t work.  They are talking about what is available currently.  What they don’t tell you is that THERE WAS NO 5 MINUTE TEST 2 MONTHS AGO.  Advanced technology will give us a 5 minute test that will show asymptomatic people.  I would guess that would be just months from now.  The world is full of nay-sayers and short on doers.  
 

Those of us who love to cruise are going to have to think creatively.  There will be a level of risk and those who do not want to accept that level of risk can simply stay home and wait.  Those of us who are willing can take a chance and press on.  People who are under 60 will probably start cruising sooner than later.  

 

 

 

 

 

 When you start your statement referring to doctors as "so called experts" I guess I know where you're coming from.....

 

The DOCTOR in question was referring specifically to the tests in development and has probably been the leading media medical voice on C19 in the UK - but hey what does he know compared with someone who goes on cruises and wants to think creatively....

 

You're right let's will a solution and think positively, that will sort it.  Those people under 60 who really want to cruise can get on a ship even if one isn't sailing, such is the power of positive thought.  

 

I wonder what Gwyneth Paltrow's take on this is - perhaps Goop should be consulted?

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by DYKWIA

[CGTNORMANDIE]

1 hour ago, DYKWIA said:

 When you start your statement referring to doctors as "so called experts" I guess I know where you're coming from.....

 

The DOCTOR in question was referring specifically to the tests in development and has probably been the leading media medical voice on C19 in the UK - but hey what does he know compared with someone who goes on cruises and wants to think creatively....

 

You're right let's will a solution and think positively, that will sort it.  Those people under 60 who really want to cruise can get on a ship even if one isn't sailing, such is the power of positive thought.  

 

I wonder what Gwyneth Paltrow's take on this is - perhaps Goop should be consulted?

 

 

Sorry but so many of these doctors have been wrong.  Their predictions of gloom and doom were rampant...hundreds of thousands were going to die and hospitals were going to be over-run and unable to cope.  Some of us can see more positive solutions on the horizon and some of us will stay home until the CV 19 has disappeared entirely.  I’m not even remotely concerned with what Gwyneth Paltrow would do.  

[Fouremco]

13 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Sorry but so many of these doctors have been wrong.  Their predictions of gloom and doom were rampant...hundreds of thousands were going to die and hospitals were going to be over-run and unable to cope.  Some of us can see more positive solutions on the horizon and some of us will stay home until the CV 19 has disappeared entirely.  I’m not even remotely concerned with what Gwyneth Paltrow would do.  

With US deaths about to pass the 100,000 mark, you might want to actually listen to the experts and their predictions.

[CGTNORMANDIE]

34 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

With US deaths about to pass the 100,000 mark, you might want to actually listen to the experts and their predictions.

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

[DaveSJ711]

48 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Sorry but so many of these doctors have been wrong.  Their predictions of gloom and doom were rampant...hundreds of thousands were going to die and hospitals were going to be over-run and unable to cope.  Some of us can see more positive solutions on the horizon and some of us will stay home until the CV 19 has disappeared entirely.  I’m not even remotely concerned with what Gwyneth Paltrow would do.  

 

Almost two months ago, Dr. Fauci said that between 100,000 and 200,000 COVID-related deaths could occur in the U.S.  He qualified his estimate as a "moving target" that could change based on a number of social and ecological factors.

 

Dr. Fauci's estimate was right on the mark.

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/anthony-fauci-predicts-hundreds-of-thousands-american-coronavirus-deaths_n_5e80c707c5b6256a7a2c7df7

[DaveSJ711]

11 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

 

The 2-3 million death figure, e.g., the Imperial College London estimate on March 16, assumed "the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior," e.g., social distancing, stay-at-home orders, etc.  But as we know, these measures have since been adopted around the country -- so the actual COVID-related deaths in the U.S. have been much less than the ICL estimate.  Cause and effect.

 

https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by DaveSJ711

[bEwAbG]

11 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

You were hearing but not understanding then.

[chipmaster]

22 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

 

Sigh, so we crossed 100,000 was that a victory, 100,000 is a lot of extra people dying even if most already had one foot in the grave.

 

BTW as others had noted that was the worst case scenario.   

 

I will say the total deaths integrated for all time till we get a vaccine will be the same.  With lock down we simply stretching out the infection rate/incident and deaths, we flattened the curve.  We did NOTHING to change the mortality rate.

[Fouremco]

35 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

Not so far, when their predictions are taken in full context.

[CGTNORMANDIE]

Now that we have covered the entire gamut of Covid models can we get back to the main topic?

[Oville]

1 hour ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

1 hour ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Now that we have covered the entire gamut of Covid models can we get back to the main topic?

A long time, back on topic.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Oville

[DYKWIA]

9 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Now that we have covered the entire gamut of Covid models can we get back to the main topic?

 

Main topic "

WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO RESTART CRUISE SHIPS???

Listening to the experts and not deriding them 

 

[hcat]

12 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Sorry but so many of these doctors have been wrong.  Their predictions of gloom and doom were rampant...hundreds of thousands were going to die and hospitals were going to be over-run and unable to cope.  Some of us can see more positive solutions on the horizon and some of us will stay home until the CV 19 has disappeared entirely.  I’m not even remotely concerned with what Gwyneth Paltrow would do.  

For those who died and lost loved ones,  "gloom and doom" came true!

There are many deaths, more added each day, some hospitals still over run some easing. We'll see what the " great openings" bring this weejend and next Covid flu season.

 

It will take a smart  plan and increased consumer confidence to get things going!

[ighten]

It will take "back to normality" to become the "new norm" - its that simple..

 

I said this before but most industrys from theme parks to cruise ships and all forms of transport or venues (in fact anything) will not and can not survive if social distancing and everyother current method is still in place.

 

A vaccine may never come or be so late it will be untestable anyway..

 

As soon as countrys work out the zone where health services are no longer under threat they will edge back to normal as quickly as possible.

[harkinmr]

13 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

They were right.  Those predictions were based on the shutdowns and mitigation measures not being put into place.  The shutdowns and measures were put into place and we will 100,000 deaths before June 1 with more to come. 

[BigAl94]

How long before this starts to happen in the cruise industry? https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-car-rental-firm-hertz-files-for-bankruptcy-after-pandemic-losses-11993146