Ten steps the cruise industry needs to take to recover

[lenquixote66]

4 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Early on a friend of mine posted about the difficulties of home schooling math and science.  She loves history but hates math, I now have an interest in history but hated it in school.

My response to her: 

You as a student: When am I ever going to need to understand an exponential function in real life?

Me: Why do I need to learn about some sick people during WWI?

Both of us now: Oh......

 

I was a terrible student in HS not because I did not know the work but I was just lazy.

I often said to my teachers why would I need to know this stuff .I was so wrong.

[ed01106]

14 minutes ago, Donray said:

Since cruise lines did not spread the virus as much as  air travel did, why not eliminate air travel or at least make sure that no one is seated closer than six feet.  Also, stop serving and food or drinks.  Make sure all passengers are not sick of have any temperature above 100.  

 

What about sports?  Need to reduce that crowds at spotting events to about 10% of current.  Also no food or drink sales.

 

What about movie and live theater?   Stop it all?? 

 

I guess even when that is over and people vaccinated we should all were maskd all the time. 

 

And no more sex. 

Wow.  Talk about convoluting different things.

 

Air travel is a quasi necessity.  Cruising is pure luxury.  Also flights last hours not days like cruises.

 

Until this pandemic is under control theaters should either shut down or operate at a diminished capacity to allow social distancing.  Sports should be TV only or diminished capacity to allow social distancing.

 

Nobody is suggesting people social distance from spouse or life partner.  Sex can continue.

 

Once a vaccine is available masks will be unnecessary.  But might be semi-prevalent during cold and flu season.

[calliopecruiser]

22 hours ago, mnocket said:

There is little reason to believe that a COVID vaccine will be far more effective than the common flu vaccine - which in a good year is about 50% effective and in a bad year 30% effective.

I can't understand why everyone keeps trying to compare a (presumptive) Covid-19 vaccine to a flu vaccine!  They're not the same virus Family (they're not even in the same Phylum!), and the diseases are markedly different.   You could just as readily compare it to the measles vaccines, since it's an unrelated virus too.  The polio virus at least shares the same Phylum and Class, and so is genetically closer - why not compare it to that 99% efficacious vaccine? 

 

The truth is, we've never had a commercially available human vaccine against a Coronavirus.  Vaccine trials on SARS and MERS vaccines (never completed, and so never commercially available) were showing some significantly positive results with respect to effectiveness and safety. 

 

And as for the reliability of StatNews?  Variable; they've been shown to have had the pharma industry ghostwrite some articles for them, which is hardly a sign journalistic integrity.  Then again, I doubt any newspaper hasn't had an incident that dented its credibility, but I couldn't find what StatNews said about those problems, and what they did about them. 

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by calliopecruiser
grammar

[ed01106]

15 minutes ago, calliopecruiser said:

I can't understand why everyone keeps trying to compare a (presumptive) Covid-19 vaccine to a flu vaccine!  They're not the same virus Family (they're not even in the same Phylum!), and the diseases are markedly different.   You could just as readily compare it to the measles vaccines, since it's an unrelated virus too.  The polio virus at least shares the same Phylum and Class, and so is genetically closer - why not compare it to that 99% efficacious vaccine? 

 

The truth is, we've never had a commercially available human vaccine against a Coronavirus.  Vaccine trials on SARS and MERS vaccines (never completed, and so never commercially available) were showing some significantly positive results with respect to effectiveness and safety. 

 

And as for the reliability of StatNews?  Variable; they've been shown to have had the pharma industry ghostwrite some articles for them, which is hardly a sign journalistic integrity.  Then again, I doubt any newspaper hasn't had an incident that dented its credibility, but I couldn't find what StatNews said about those problems, and what they did about them. 

 

To add in support:

 

There is no one flu virus, there is multiple flu stains.  The flu vaccine works well against the strains that it is intended to fight.  Problem is we can’t vaccinate against all of them and we often guess wrong as to what strains to pick.  The problem of multiple strains doesn’t appear to be a problem with covid.

[mnocket]

25 minutes ago, calliopecruiser said:

I can't understand why everyone keeps trying to compare a (presumptive) Covid-19 vaccine to a flu vaccine!  They're not the same virus Family (they're not even in the same Phylum!), and the diseases are markedly different.   You could just as readily compare it to the measles vaccines, since it's an unrelated virus too.  The polio virus at least shares the same Phylum and Class, and so is genetically closer - why not compare it to that 99% efficacious vaccine? 

 

The truth is, we've never had a commercially available human vaccine against a Coronavirus.  Vaccine trials on SARS and MERS vaccines (never completed, and so never commercially available) were showing some significantly positive results with respect to effectiveness and safety. 

 

And as for the reliability of StatNews?  Variable; they've been shown to have had the pharma industry ghostwrite some articles for them, which is hardly a sign journalistic integrity.  Then again, I doubt any newspaper hasn't had an incident that dented its credibility, but I couldn't find what StatNews said about those problems, and what they did about them. 

 

 

You seem to have more knowledge than me on vaccines.  Do you agree or disagree that too much faith is being put in an eventual vaccine as a silver bullet solution?  As you point out, there has never been a commercially available human vaccine against a coronavirus, yet again and again I hear people saying "I won't return to [fill in the blank] until a vaccine is available.  Such statements indicate a belief that 1) the availability of a vaccine is a certainty, and 2) the widespread availability of a vaccine means the high risk group is safe from COVID.  Am I mistaken?  Is there a high probability that a vaccine going to be THE solution to COVID?

Edited May 23, 2020 by mnocket

[calliopecruiser]

1 minute ago, mnocket said:

a silver bullet solution

That entire concept is faulty -- there will not be a silver bullet, because silver bullets don't exist.   Even in cases where no vaccines have been found for serious viral diseases (such as AIDS), there are great medical advances that make the disease so much easier to manage and so much less severe in its effect.  In other words, vaccines don't exist in a vacuum as a way to deal with an infectious disease or to assess one's risk. 

 

A vaccine would be a big step in making me feel more comfortable about my risk; even a vaccine that is only mildly effective will decrease my risk, and if you add to that more knowledge about the disease (we're still learning new things about it all the time) and better ways to treat it, my comfort would increase even more.  Would I be comfortable going into crowds before a vaccine is available?  Sure, if there was more known about risk factors and treatments.  For instance, it was once thought chronic respiratory diseases like asthma were a risk factor for serious disease, but it turns out that's not the case -- high blood pressure and heart problems seem to be a significant risk factor because this isn't primarily a lung disease, it's primarily a vascular disease affecting blood clotting. 

 

The question of whether to put more effort and money into vaccines or treatments is always a fight with any newly emerging disease, and neither is really more important than the other.  We need both; being protected from infection is great, but if you're one of the ones that isn't protected or isn't fully protected (that might be the fault of your biology, not just a fault of the vaccine), you also will need good treatments to lessen the effect and help rid your body of the virus. 

[Donray]

14 minutes ago, mnocket said:

 

You seem to have more knowledge than me on vaccines.  Do you agree or disagree that too much faith is being put in an eventual vaccine as a silver bullet solution?  As you point out, there has never been a commercially available human vaccine against a coronavirus, yet again and again I hear people saying "I won't return to [fill in the blank] until a vaccine is available.  Such statements indicate a belief that 1) the availability of a vaccine is a certainty, and 2) the widespread availability of a vaccine means the high risk group is safe from COVID.  Am I mistaken?  Is there a high probability that a vaccine going to be THE solution to COVID?

I don't agree with you.  Yes there will be a vaccine.  There are many in trails now.  We almost eliminated Polio my vaccine.  Except for the idiot anti vaccine people we would almost eliminate measles.  

 

The only thing that will slow down a vaccine are governments. 

[CruiserBruce]

6 minutes ago, Donray said:

I don't agree with you.  Yes there will be a vaccine.  There are many in trails now.  We almost eliminated Polio my vaccine.  Except for the idiot anti vaccine people we would almost eliminate measles.  

 

The only thing that will slow down a vaccine are governments. 

Ah...no. The problem here is a rush to a vaccine being pushed by a certain government official. There is no history of a vaccine being produced this quickly, although current genetic engineering abilities are certainly changing the dynamic. But the rush to a potentially underwhelming or ineffective vaccine scares me as much as  Covid. 

[calliopecruiser]

16 minutes ago, Donray said:

The only thing that will slow down a vaccine are governments

Well, that's only true if the disease-causing microorganism (virus, bacteria, parasite) is one in which an effective and safe vaccine is actually possible.  There are viruses and diseases for which a vaccine has never been created in spite of many (and ongoing) efforts, such as HIV and Epstein-Barr, Malaria (exists but not effective), Dengue Fever, Zika, or even the common cold.  People have been trying for decades and decades, with no success.

Edited May 23, 2020 by calliopecruiser

[lenquixote66]

2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

Early on a friend of mine posted about the difficulties of home schooling math and science.  She loves history but hates math, I now have an interest in history but hated it in school.

My response to her: 

You as a student: When am I ever going to need to understand an exponential function in real life?

Me: Why do I need to learn about some sick people during WWI?

Both of us now: Oh......

 

I was a terrible student in HS till the Principal who lived across the street came to my house and said to my father that Lenquixote better get his act together or he will not graduate .My father was very angry and after that I became a great student.

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

To add in support:

 

There is no one flu virus, there is multiple flu stains.  The flu vaccine works well against the strains that it is intended to fight.  Problem is we can’t vaccinate against all of them and we often guess wrong as to what strains to pick.  The problem of multiple strains doesn’t appear to be a problem with covid.

 

The SARS-CoV-2 has mutated, so far not enough from what I've read to put it into the same situation as how quickly and many strains of the flu virus exist and mutate.

 

But currently everyone see the half full glass of early clinical trails, until they get volume statistics with blind test with placebos as well as clinical evidence of those that have developed antibodies to be resistant nothing is certain.   Darn even those that have COVID19, have antibodies and recovered it isn't clear if they are resistant to a second attack if given a large virus load and what if it is a mutated virus load?    We already know there are 7 strains and likely more will come out of Mexico and Brazil. 

 

I am not saying a vaccine wont' come, but it will be long time before we have real evidence of it's efficacy and also real understanding of the down side.   Right now everyone is focused on the good news and sweeping all the other heavy studies under the rug. 

 

 

[cruisemom42]

20 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

We already know there are 7 strains and likely more will come out of Mexico and Brazil.

 

 

Not so fast....  I think you may be confusing mutations with strains.  

 

According to a very reliable source, Medical News Today:  "“Until there is some evidence of a change in virus biology, we cannot say that there are new strains of the virus. It’s important to appreciate that mutations are a normal byproduct of virus replication and that most mutations we observe won’t have any impact on virus biology or function.” 

 

This is in response to the idea that there is a second strain -- which was reported in a publication out of China. I'd be very curious where you are reading that there are seven strains.

 

As to the mutations, all viruses mutate. So far there is not evidence that this one is doing so in a particularly rapid way.

 

 

[ed01106]

47 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

The SARS-CoV-2 has mutated, so far not enough from what I've read to put it into the same situation as how quickly and many strains of the flu virus exist and mutate.

 

But currently everyone see the half full glass of early clinical trails, until they get volume statistics with blind test with placebos as well as clinical evidence of those that have developed antibodies to be resistant nothing is certain.   Darn even those that have COVID19, have antibodies and recovered it isn't clear if they are resistant to a second attack if given a large virus load and what if it is a mutated virus load?    We already know there are 7 strains and likely more will come out of Mexico and Brazil. 

 

I am not saying a vaccine wont' come, but it will be long time before we have real evidence of it's efficacy and also real understanding of the down side.   Right now everyone is focused on the good news and sweeping all the other heavy studies under the rug. 

 

 

I am not a glass half full when it comes to this virus.  I don’t know how long it will take to create a vaccine.  But there shouldn’t be a single cruise until either we have a vaccine or herd immunity.  If that means no cruises for 5 years, then so be it.

[Roger88]

One of the most major steps they have to take is to stop scaring people. All they need to do is to make people feel that their cruises are safe and nothing can harm their operations. I hate it when they speak of the measures. In my opinion they only frighten people away

[calliopecruiser]

26 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

All they need to do is to make people feel that their cruises are safe and nothing can harm their operations.

So, you mean all they have to do is lie to people.

[clo]

26 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

One of the most major steps they have to take is to stop scaring people. All they need to do is to make people feel that their cruises are safe and nothing can harm their operations. I hate it when they speak of the measures. In my opinion they only frighten people away

And what I hope is that no one believes and then acts upon anything you just wrote. Those first two sentences should be at least prefaced with something like "This is my opinion only."

[clo]

1 minute ago, calliopecruiser said:

So, you mean all they have to do is lie to people.

And who are "they"?

[calliopecruiser]

1 minute ago, clo said:

And who are "they"?

The "they" that Roger88 talks about in his post.......I presume he meant the cruise companies.

[clo]

7 minutes ago, calliopecruiser said:

The "they" that Roger88 talks about in his post.......I presume he meant the cruise companies.

Whereas I thought perhaps he meant 'the government.'

[calliopecruiser]

12 minutes ago, clo said:

Whereas I thought perhaps he meant 'the government.'

Either way, it would still be a lie.

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Not so fast....  I think you may be confusing mutations with strains.  

 

According to a very reliable source, Medical News Today:  "“Until there is some evidence of a change in virus biology, we cannot say that there are new strains of the virus. It’s important to appreciate that mutations are a normal byproduct of virus replication and that most mutations we observe won’t have any impact on virus biology or function.” 

 

This is in response to the idea that there is a second strain -- which was reported in a publication out of China. I'd be very curious where you are reading that there are seven strains.

 

As to the mutations, all viruses mutate. So far there is not evidence that this one is doing so in a particularly rapid way.

 

 

 

A good read:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/science/coronavirus-mutations.html

 

Yet to know what any vaccine will do for all of them, and to really know will require many to take a placebo and compare, as well as for the test samples to represent a broad swath of people.   

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

I am not a glass half full when it comes to this virus.  I don’t know how long it will take to create a vaccine.  But there shouldn’t be a single cruise until either we have a vaccine or herd immunity.  If that means no cruises for 5 years, then so be it.

 

How pandemics end, it won't be the first way as we can see:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

[cruisemom42]

4 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

A good read:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/science/coronavirus-mutations.html

 

Yet to know what any vaccine will do for all of them, and to really know will require many to take a placebo and compare, as well as for the test samples to represent a broad swath of people.   

 

Yes, I've read that. And again, it is primarily talking about mutations, not strains.

 

From the article:

 

At this point in the pandemic, coronavirus genomes with 10 or fewer mutations are common, and only a small number have over 20 mutations — which is still less than a tenth of a percent of the genome.

 

Over time, viruses can evolve into new strains — in other words, viral lineages that are significantly different from each other. Since January, researchers have sequenced many thousands of SARS-CoV-2 genomes and tracked all the mutations that have arisen. So far, they haven’t found compelling evidence that the mutations have had a significant change in how the virus affects us.

 

In fact, researchers have found that the coronavirus is mutating relatively slowly compared to some other RNA viruses, in part because virus proteins acting as proofreaders are able to fix some mistakes. Each month, a lineage of coronaviruses might acquire only two single-letter mutations.

 

In the future, the coronavirus may pick up some mutations that help it evade our immune systems. But the slow mutation rate of the coronavirus means that these changes will emerge over the course of years.

That bodes well for vaccines currently in development for Covid-19. If people get vaccinated in 2021 against the new coronavirus, they may well enjoy a protection that lasts for years.

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes, I've read that. And again, it is primarily talking about mutations, not strains.

 

From the article:

 

At this point in the pandemic, coronavirus genomes with 10 or fewer mutations are common, and only a small number have over 20 mutations — which is still less than a tenth of a percent of the genome.

 

Over time, viruses can evolve into new strains — in other words, viral lineages that are significantly different from each other. Since January, researchers have sequenced many thousands of SARS-CoV-2 genomes and tracked all the mutations that have arisen. So far, they haven’t found compelling evidence that the mutations have had a significant change in how the virus affects us.

 

In fact, researchers have found that the coronavirus is mutating relatively slowly compared to some other RNA viruses, in part because virus proteins acting as proofreaders are able to fix some mistakes. Each month, a lineage of coronaviruses might acquire only two single-letter mutations.

 

In the future, the coronavirus may pick up some mutations that help it evade our immune systems. But the slow mutation rate of the coronavirus means that these changes will emerge over the course of years.

That bodes well for vaccines currently in development for Covid-19. If people get vaccinated in 2021 against the new coronavirus, they may well enjoy a protection that lasts for years.

 

Lets hope so, humanity needs some help as the world moves to recession. 

[Silver Sweethearts]

9 hours ago, ed01106 said:

But there shouldn’t be a single cruise until either we have a vaccine or herd immunity.  If that means no cruises for 5 years, then so be it.

 

If it means no cruises for 5 years, all of the cruise lines will be out of business.