When will things start back up?

[Tranquility Base]

The recent comments by the Pfizer CEO regarding a possible 3rd dose being required will focus a lot of people's attention.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Tranquility Base

[njhorseman]

17 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

The cruise lines need to stop wasting time and money on the CDC. Move those operations outside of US waters to countries that want tourism and get on with life.

That's not going to work for the US-based mass market cruise lines as their passenger base consists largely of those who want to cruise for a week to 10 days or less from a port that's only a short drive or flight from home.

[pinotlover]

12 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

The recent comments by the Pfizer CEO regarding a possible 3rd dose being required will focus a lot of people's attention.

If I was a Pharm exec making my bonus selling drugs, I’d say the exact same thing. 

[PhD-iva]

11 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That's not going to work for the US-based mass market cruise lines as their passenger base consists largely of those who want to cruise for a week to 10 days or less from a port that's only a short drive or flight from home.

How about Galveston or New Orleans? Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s exec order to veto “vaccine passports” only applies to state agencies or businesses receiving state funding. Doesn’t apply to cruise lines.

[pinotlover]

4 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That's not going to work for the US-based mass market cruise lines as their passenger base consists largely of those who want to cruise for a week to 10 days or less from a port that's only a short drive or flight from home.

Then to lines can go bankrupt waiting on the CDC. If A=B, and B=C, A=C. Pretty well sums it up.

 

Had an interesting conversation with a top administration official at my undergrad college. If crowds aren’t allowed back into major sporting events this coming Fall and Winter, college athletics implode. If college football starts to disappear, as it already is at some smaller schools, Title IX is turned on its head. Then a multitude of teams are wiped out.

[njhorseman]

26 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

The cruise lines need to stop wasting time and money on the CDC. Move those operations outside of US waters to countries that want tourism and get on with life.

 

5 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That's not going to work for the US-based mass market cruise lines as their passenger base consists largely of those who want to cruise for a week to 10 days or less from a port that's only a short drive or flight from home.

In addition to my initial response you also have to realize that moving operations outside of US waters is easier said than done.  The cruise lines still have to deal with the the rules of multiple countries, which substantially limits possible itineraries. If you look at the non-US itineraries announced so far I don't think they're particularly attractive to even moderately experienced travelers because of the limited number of countries currently willing to accept cruise ships . I know I'm not the least bit interested in getting on an airplane to board a cruise to a destination I have been to many times before or don't care to visit at all. 

[njhorseman]

10 minutes ago, PhD-iva said:

How about Galveston or New Orleans? Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s exec order to veto “vaccine passports” only applies to state agencies or businesses receiving state funding. Doesn’t apply to cruise lines.

What I'm talking about has nothing to do with whether a state permits vaccine passports. To begin with there are some rather strong legal opinions stating it's unlikely that Florida's executive order can be legally applied to cruise ships since attempting to do so appears to violate the commerce clause of the Constitution, which gives the federal government sole authority over foreign and interstate commerce. 

The problem is obtaining CDC approval to cruise whether the port is in Florida, Texas, Louisiana or elsewhere in the US.

Edited April 16, 2021 by njhorseman

[pinotlover]

11 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

 

In addition to my initial response you also have to realize that moving operations outside of US waters is easier said than done.  The cruise lines still have to deal with the the rules of multiple countries, which substantially limits possible itineraries. If you look at the non-US itineraries announced so far I don't think they're particularly attractive to even moderately experienced travelers because of the limited number of countries currently willing to accept cruise ships . I know I'm not the least bit interested in getting on an airplane to board a cruise to a destination I have been to many times before or don't care to visit at all. 

While that clearly defines you and I, do you grasp the number of people that sail the Carribe and never get off the ship? An outing is to a private island with hamburgers, hotdogs, margaritas, and beer.

 

My brother lives in Titusville. He talks about the Carnival  buses rolling between the Orlando airport and the cruise port there. Those people could just as easily be put aboard a chartered flight to the Carribe and back.

Edited April 16, 2021 by pinotlover

[njhorseman]

1 minute ago, pinotlover said:

While that clearly defines you and I, do you grasp the number of people that sail the Carribe and never get off the ship? An outing is to a private island with hamburgers, hotdogs, margaritas, and beer.

 

My brother lives in Titusville. He talks about the Carnival  buses rolling between the Orlando airport and the cruise port there. Those people could just as easily be out aboard a chartered flight to the Carribe and back.

I understand that but I think the number of passengers that can be accommodated on those cruises is severely limited by insufficient infrastructure in the Caribbean. There aren't any cruise ports with a fraction of the capacity of Miami or Port Everglades or Port Canaveral. It might be sufficient to keep the cruise lines on life support for a while, but eventually they're going to have to start repaying the loans on all those billion dollar ships and that's just not possible at limited passenger loads.

[Host Jazzbeau]

How are they limiting the passenger loads?  One easy way for a mass market line is to close off the Inside and Oceanview cabins – thereby raising average per passenger revenue even if they don't raise cruise fares, while limiting the stress on shipboard and onshore infrastructure.  Another is to require amenity bundles, to exclude the passengers who don't add revenue beyond the cabin fare.  If this works, we may see a big change in cruise line marketing [toward what Oceania has always done].

[clo]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

The cruise lines need to stop wasting time and money on the CDC. Move those operations outside of US waters to countries that want tourism and get on with life.

I'm guessing with our cases rising in 38 states - so far - that other countries aren't going to be real keen on letting us in.

[pinotlover]

11 minutes ago, clo said:

I'm guessing with our cases rising in 38 states - so far - that other countries aren't going to be real keen on letting us in.

Do you for just once want to define how many of those cases are from fully vaccinated patients? Just once? Oceania along with several other lines have said their passengers and crew will be fully vaccinated!!!! Why can’t you grasp the difference the difference in outcomes, unless of course the entire vaccination drill is a scam. Is that what your saying?

[clo]

10 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Do you for just once want to define how many of those cases are from fully vaccinated patients? Just once? Oceania along with several other lines have said their passengers and crew will be fully vaccinated!!!! Why can’t you grasp the difference the difference in outcomes, unless of course the entire vaccination drill is a scam. Is that what your saying?

Why don't YOU grasp that I'm talking about CDC changing their order. And I'm talking about other countries allowing US citizens in. Of course, the cruise lines are cool with it but governments are way more strict. The cruise lines are only interested in the bottom line. Get it?

[Tranquility Base]

9 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Oceania along with several other lines have said their passengers and crew will be fully vaccinated!!!!

What is the definition of fully vaccinated going to be in 3 months time I wonder.

Many countries around the World have closed their borders to both vaccinated and non vaccinated travellers.

 

2021 remains a year of vaccine development & learning.

[clo]

Just now, Tranquility Base said:

2021 remains a year of vaccine development & learning.

Especially learning. There will be a lot of data gathering.

[Host Jazzbeau]

50 minutes ago, clo said:

Why don't YOU grasp that I'm talking about CDC changing their order. And I'm talking about other countries allowing US citizens in. Of course, the cruise lines are cool with it but governments are way more strict. The cruise lines are only interested in the bottom line. Get it?

It is becoming clear every day that more and more countries are nowhere hear as strict as the CDC.  Tahiti has just published new rules for cruises – favoring Americans and banning the French [PS, Tahiti is a French territory!]  Caribbean countries are falling all over themselves to be allowed to homeport formerly US cruise ships.  The cruise lines are 'only' responding to their customers and these countries desire for cruising to resume.  Get it?

[clo]

3 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Get it?

Maybe YOU don't get it. The US is unlikely to open cruising from their port any time soon. Canada? Forget it. AU/NZ nope. and all over Europe. There are certainly countries that probably could care less about the paltry money that cruisers provide vs. land visitors. But the other don't.

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

Oceania along with several other lines have said their passengers and crew will be fully vaccinated!!!!

I don’t think O is willing to open itself to lawsuits by those who are not vaccinated but wish to cruise.

As we know, they will claim discrimination and limiting their free choice and personal liberties.

Edited April 16, 2021 by Paulchili

[clo]

2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

That's not going to work for the US-based mass market cruise lines as their passenger base consists largely of those who want to cruise for a week to 10 days or less from a port that's only a short drive or flight from home.

I was the OP on a post about the Caribbean being the main destination for US cruisers. Mixed resplies. And I guessing that they're WAY less profitable than the 'real' international trips.

[njhorseman]

23 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

I don’t think O is willing to open itself to lawsuits by those who are not vaccinated but wish to cruise.

As we know, they will claim discrimination and limiting their free choice and personal liberties.

FDR has already stated in the cruising resumption plan he filed with the CDC last week that all NCLH adult passengers and crew will have to be vaccinated.

[Host Jazzbeau]

36 minutes ago, clo said:

Maybe YOU don't get it. The US is unlikely to open cruising from their port any time soon. Canada? Forget it. AU/NZ nope. and all over Europe. There are certainly countries that probably could care less about the paltry money that cruisers provide vs. land visitors. But the other don't.

I've already written all four you name off until 2024 at the earliest.  AU/NZ have created a bubble but forgot that you need some vaccine to ever reach herd immunity so they will stay bubbled up indefinitely.  Canada is finally starting to put some jabs in arms, but way behind the US.  The question is why isn't the country with such a good vaccination rate [US] opening up?  Answer: CDC.

 

So I'm taking my money where they want me.  As I noted, there are plenty of countries that do want US tourists and even [shock!] cruisers.  That's where you'll find me.  Have fun at home.

[njhorseman]

22 minutes ago, clo said:

I was the OP on a post about the Caribbean being the main destination for US cruisers. Mixed resplies. And I guessing that they're WAY less profitable than the 'real' international trips.

I think they're quite profitable given the income from those types of cruises have to be sufficient to pay the construction loans on billion dollar ships and return a profit .

There are lots of high-profit revenue sources on these ships....alcoholic beverages, casino gambling. sales of photographs, shore excursions, spa treatments, etc.

[clo]

2 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

've already written all four you name off until 2024 at the earliest.

Then I think you're being realistic. The US has a good vaccination rate but now the cases are rising. So you just want to cruise. Wherever. Not I. Enjoy the Caribbean.

 

[njhorseman]

2 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

The question is why isn't the country with such a good vaccination rate [US] opening up?  Answer: CDC.

The US will open once the vaccination program produces a marked decline in infection and hospitalization rates. That will be indicative of the country having enough of the population being immune for the chance of being infected with COVID-19 to be considered to be an acceptable risk .

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

FDR has already stated in the cruising resumption plan he filed with the CDC last week that all NCLH adult passengers and crew will have to be vaccinated.

Do you really think that will deter the antivaxers from claiming discrimination and being denied their personal freedom?

We see it happening all over the country in certain areas.

Will FDR have legal standing in denying them boarding?