What is you expectation of the future of cruising and travel with COVID?

[SelectSys]

For a "long time" I have believed that blanket travel bans will be replaced by a more targeted approach to counter COVID disease spread.  We also know that people of all backgrounds and areas will not stay at home forever to say nothing of the economic consequences.  It seems Angela Merkel believes this as COVID continues to grind on:  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-warns-europe-against-new-lockdowns/articleshow/77682201.cms  The Germans are also starting to take a more targeted view as it relates to the returning traveler: https://www.startribune.com/berlin-bans-weekend-protests-against-anti-virus-measures/572225572/

 

However, what really caught my eye was the article in Vanity Fair regarding how the really rich are dealing with COVID.  It seems that continuous fast testing and the creation of temporary COVID free "bubbles" are the order of the day: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/luxe-quarantine-lives-of-silicon-valley-elite.  I think this passage is instructive:

 

"Another billionaire in Los Angeles has been hosting lavish dinner parties (no social media allowed) where an on-site nurse administers 15-minute coronavirus tests outside as guests drink cocktails, and allows them in to dine once their test comes back negative."

 

What always starts with the rich ultimately "trickles down" progressively to lower and lower economic classes over time.  While most of us here won't be jetting around the world privately, continuous testing may become a fact of life almost like having another security checkpoint at airports.  

 

What do you all think?  Is continuous testing for travel coming or will we be staying home or "rolling the dice" each time we go out?  I think our recent poster from Barbados, Aplmac provides at least anecdotal evidences of this test heavy future.

 

 

 

[ColeThornton]

No offense meant but take some time to read through this forum and the cruise line forums.  It's already been discussed, dissected, discussed more and beaten to death.

 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by ColeThornton

[clo]

13 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

No offense meant but take some time to read through this forum and the cruise line forums.  It's already been discussed, dissected, discussed more and beaten to death.

 

 

I think it's a more nuanced question than previous ones.

[ldubs]

26 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

For a "long time" I have believed that blanket travel bans will be replaced by a more targeted approach to counter COVID disease spread.  We also know that people of all backgrounds and areas will not stay at home forever to say nothing of the economic consequences.  It seems Angela Merkel believes this as COVID continues to grind on:  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-warns-europe-against-new-lockdowns/articleshow/77682201.cms  The Germans are also starting to take a more targeted view as it relates to the returning traveler: https://www.startribune.com/berlin-bans-weekend-protests-against-anti-virus-measures/572225572/

 

However, what really caught my eye was the article in Vanity Fair regarding how the really rich are dealing with COVID.  It seems that continuous fast testing and the creation of temporary COVID free "bubbles" are the order of the day: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/luxe-quarantine-lives-of-silicon-valley-elite.  I think this passage is instructive:

 

"Another billionaire in Los Angeles has been hosting lavish dinner parties (no social media allowed) where an on-site nurse administers 15-minute coronavirus tests outside as guests drink cocktails, and allows them in to dine once their test comes back negative."

 

What always starts with the rich ultimately "trickles down" progressively to lower and lower economic classes over time.  While most of us here won't be jetting around the world privately, continuous testing may become a fact of life almost like having another security checkpoint at airports.  

 

What do you all think?  Is continuous testing for travel coming or will we be staying home or "rolling the dice" each time we go out?  I think our recent poster from Barbados, Aplmac provides at least anecdotal evidences of this test heavy future.

 

 

 

Our daughter, who is far from a billionaire, attended a gathering of friends where everyone had to do a test a few days prior to the  trip.   I don't think they got 15 minute results but it was fast.   So this kind of thing is happening.  

[mnocket]

I suspect rapid testing will play a role in cruising until COVID is truly under control.  It's not perfect (less accurate), but still beneficial.  I watched a video recently where a doctor made a compelling case that less accurate rapid tests were actually preferable to the more accurate tests that take longer to process.  In fact, his position was that tests that took 4 or more days to return results were next to useless in controlling the spread of COVID since the patient may be infecting others while awaiting results.  Rapid testing, while less accurate, is far and away more effective in curtailing the spread of the virus as infected patients know to quarantine immediately.

[bigrednole]

Well, after countless arguments on waiver of liability for Big Pharma, the rushed vaccines are close. They are most likely not going to be that effective, but it will reopen the US because they are protected by an Act from government. Other countries will follow the same path. Countries that don't will have travel bans and watch their economies continue to crumble. 

 

In the US, the FDA approved EUA of a "rapid" test that takes 15 minutes. I am sorry, that is not rapid. There are companies that are as accurate with test in about 10s. Yes, just 10s from saliva. If it is positive, there is another test with the same device that requires a blood test like a glucometer that is more accurate. Still about 10s but more invasive because it takes a ***** of the finger. If it is positive again, then a clinical test would be needed. I agree that a 15 minute test is fine in a controlled environment like being in your own car in a drive-by place. However, people crammed at a cruise terminal like that is not effective.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-novavax-pfizer-others-lobby-090945108.html

[SelectSys]

10 hours ago, mnocket said:

I suspect rapid testing will play a role in cruising until COVID is truly under control.  It's not perfect (less accurate), but still beneficial...

 

Agreed, no "silver bullets" are likely and it will be multiple measures - testing, masks, social distancing, therapies, vaccines - that all work together to make things return to "normal."

 

7 hours ago, bigrednole said:

...

In the US, the FDA approved EUA of a "rapid" test that takes 15 minutes. I am sorry, that is not rapid. There are companies that are as accurate with test in about 10s. Yes, just 10s from saliva...

 

I think these kinds of innovations will continue to come forward and help us get to the point where almost continuous testing and isolation becomes practical.  10 seconds is much faster than a security scan at the airport.

 

Reapplying this type of technology may also help in controlling other viruses as well.  Could this type of testing be one of the  "silver linings" coming out of the COVID-19 cloud?

[cruizergal70]

The only true expectation is whether travelers will choose to comply with whatever requirements there are for their chosen destination. 

 

If a destination wants tests, masks, vaccinations, etc,  you can do it or not do it.

[SelectSys]

More evidence that "blanket bans" are being reconsidered in bilateral talks between the UK and US to allow travel without quarantines at either end.

 

"Officials are studying plans for regional “air bridges” that would allow visitors from “low-risk” areas such as New York City to cross the pond to Britain, the Telegraph reported."

 

I don't access to the Telegraph, but here is a link to the NY Post adaptation of the their report:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/27/nyc-to-london-air-bridge-being-discussed-by-us-uk-report/

 

My expectation is that these types of travel announcements will become more common as certain countries view it in their interest to maintain commerce.

Edited August 27, 2020 by SelectSys

[clo]

5 hours ago, SelectSys said:

More evidence that "blanket bans" are being reconsidered in bilateral talks between the UK and US to allow travel without quarantines at either end.

 

"Officials are studying plans for regional “air bridges” that would allow visitors from “low-risk” areas such as New York City to cross the pond to Britain, the Telegraph reported."

 

I don't access to the Telegraph, but here is a link to the NY Post adaptation of the their report:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/27/nyc-to-london-air-bridge-being-discussed-by-us-uk-report/

 

My expectation is that these types of travel announcements will become more common as certain countries view it in their interest to maintain commerce.

We have English friends who live in England who flew out today to Switzerland to pet sit for a month. The UK just announced a quarantine for those returning from Switzerland. 

[BlueRiband]

If I'm at the doorway of a billionaire's home but turned away because of a positive covid test I just leave and drive home.  But if I'm in a cruise terminal and denied boarding because of a positive covid test I now face the problem of how to get home if I didn't drive there directly.  As mnocket pointed out testing will have limited practicality where infection can occur between being sampled for the test and the reporting of the results.

 

The Alaska Marine Highway System requires documentation of negative covid testing within 72 hours of boarding for departures from Bellingham, Washington.  While tourists do use it it's not a "cruise" line as we understand the term because it provides basic transportation among cities and towns in  Alaska.  If one wants to get from A to B in some places it is their only travel option. 

[Hlitner]

The OP should carefully evaluate what they read (and the source).  But lets be clear (love this Bernie phrase) that the so-called "fast test" refers to an terribly inaccurate antigen test (usually made by Abbott).  This test has a false negative rate of around 20% which means that 1 out of 5 folks tested have COVID but will test negative.  And this should be combined with the Johns Hopkins study (based on real science) which shows that most folks will not test positive with any test for about 4 days after exposure.  Put all this together and the idea of using antigen tests is, at best, better then nothing but still not very reliable.

 

I think a great example of false negatives was the recent case of Governor DeWine (governor of Ohio).  He was to attend a meeting at the White House and anyone who will be close to the President is subject to the "fast test."  Governor DeWine tested positive.  He immediately returned home to Ohio where he received a more accurate PCR test (for normal folks getting results can take days) which came up negative.  It was later followed-up with a 2nd PCR test which also was negative.  What was weird about Governor DeWine is that he obviously had a false Positive test (using the fast antigen) which is quite rare (and sometimes attributed to previous contamination of the tester or testing machine.

 

Why do I make a big deal about all this (and I invite anyone to "fact check" the post?  Because there is now lots of talk about using a fast antigen test for cruisers (this would be done at the port prior to embarkation).  MSC has actually done this on its Grandiosa cruises and Costa is expected to do the same thing with their upcoming European cruises.  But since that antigen test will likely miss about 20% of the cases of COVID infection it is simply a matter of time until there is an outbreak on a cruise.  Folks can argue the point but the use of simple statistical analysis makes an outbreak a near certainty.  This is the situation faced by the CDC when they further evaluate whether to allow cruising to commence from USA ports.

 

Hank

[ilikeanswers]

19 hours ago, SelectSys said:

More evidence that "blanket bans" are being reconsidered in bilateral talks between the UK and US to allow travel without quarantines at either end.

 

"Officials are studying plans for regional “air bridges” that would allow visitors from “low-risk” areas such as New York City to cross the pond to Britain, the Telegraph reported."

 

I don't access to the Telegraph, but here is a link to the NY Post adaptation of the their report:

https://nypost.com/2020/08/27/nyc-to-london-air-bridge-being-discussed-by-us-uk-report/

 

My expectation is that these types of travel announcements will become more common as certain countries view it in their interest to maintain commerce.

 

As someone from a country that has been discussing travel bubbles for months now, all I can say is don't hold your breath😒.

[electro]

The Atlantic provinces of Canada have had the Atlantic Provinces Travel Bubble since early July, it seems to be working for them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2020/07/11/what-you-need-to-know-about-atlantic-canadas-new-coronavirus-travel-bubble/#1db5477159ee

[SelectSys]

3 hours ago, Hlitner said:

The OP should carefully evaluate what they read (and the source).  But lets be clear (love this Bernie phrase) that the so-called "fast test" refers to an terribly inaccurate antigen test (usually made by Abbott).  This test has a false negative rate of around 20% which means that 1 out of 5 folks tested have COVID but will test negative.  And this should be combined with the Johns Hopkins study (based on real science) which shows that most folks will not test positive with any test for about 4 days after exposure.  Put all this together and the idea of using antigen tests is, at best, better then nothing but still not very reliable.

 

 

Hank

 

I try and evaluate what I read and source.  I'll leave it up to others to make their own judgement as to whether or not they want to accept it or not.

 

I think were we might disagree is on the dynamic nature of testing and its continuous improvement.  Here are is another example: https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/5-things-saliva-covid-19-test/

 

It seems that at least some of this false negatives being reported in terms of being given too early in the course of the disease:

https://www.clinicaloncology.com/COVID-19/Article/07-20/False-Negatives-Found-If-COVID-19-Testing-Done-Too-Soon/58781

 

Regardless, nothing is perfect and we will see more and more testing availability at a cheaper price - see Abott's new announcement - https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-08-26-Abbotts-Fast-5-15-Minute-Easy-to-Use-COVID-19-Antigen-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-Mobile-App-Displays-Test-Results-to-Help-Our-Return-to-Daily-Life-Ramping-Production-to-50-Million-Tests-a-Month  will make more places support more or less continuous testing.

 

Finally, you need to think of testing as one tactic in an overall strategy.  I have posted several times that I don't believe a magic bullet exists and that a layered approach of multiple measures (e.g., distancing, masks, ..)  are what is required to move ahead.

 

I still haven't changed my opinion that a test heavy future is ahead of us for the foreseeable future.  Fortunately, the availability and cost of these tests continue to decline.  I am expecting the quality to improve as well.

 

 

[Hlitner]

7 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

 

I try and evaluate what I read and source.  I'll leave it up to others to make their own judgement as to whether or not they want to accept it or not.

 

I think were we might disagree is on the dynamic nature of testing and its continuous improvement.  Here are is another example: https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/5-things-saliva-covid-19-test/

 

It seems that at least some of this false negatives being reported in terms of being given too early in the course of the disease:

https://www.clinicaloncology.com/COVID-19/Article/07-20/False-Negatives-Found-If-COVID-19-Testing-Done-Too-Soon/58781

 

Regardless, nothing is perfect and we will see more and more testing availability at a cheaper price - see Abott's new announcement - https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-08-26-Abbotts-Fast-5-15-Minute-Easy-to-Use-COVID-19-Antigen-Test-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization-Mobile-App-Displays-Test-Results-to-Help-Our-Return-to-Daily-Life-Ramping-Production-to-50-Million-Tests-a-Month  will make more places support more or less continuous testing.

 

Finally, you need to think of testing as one tactic in an overall strategy.  I have posted several times that I don't believe a magic bullet exists and that a layered approach of multiple measures (e.g., distancing, masks, ..)  are what is required to move ahead.

 

I still haven't changed my opinion that a test heavy future is ahead of us for the foreseeable future.  Fortunately, the availability and cost of these tests continue to decline.  I am expecting the quality to improve as well.

 

 

I mentioned the Johns Hopkins Study because it focused on the issue you raise about test that might be done prematurely.  But consider that this is a huge problem for the cruise lines.  Most folks spend 1-3 days in travel mode just going from home to their cruise port.  While in travel mode many are in airports, planes, hotels, restaurants, and other places that increase their risk of being exposed to COVID.  But when they get to the port it is unlikely that any recent exposure will trigger a positive antigen (or even PCR) test.  So, those folks will be able to embark on their cruise with any symptoms of COVID likely showing-up during the cruise.

 

Hank

[SelectSys]

3 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

As someone from a country that has been discussing travel bubbles for months now, all I can say is don't hold your breath😒.

 

I think it will depend somewhat on the country and situation.  Australia's tolerances for risks may be lower than other countries. 

 

My guess is that Australia's hesitance in opening up is a combination of success in controlling the disease as well as the relatively strong performance of the economy.  The FT suggests that the Chinese are still buying  record levels of coal and other resources from Australia: https://www.ft.com/content/0a15f9c4-3add-49d5-af78-b0c1c5e78dfb

 

The UK, with BREXIT, may not feel quite so "lucky"  as your homeland.  The UK performance with the COVID-19 is certainly different and they may feel the need to itself more closely to the US economically after leaving the EU.  As a result, the UK may do things that Australia is currently unwilling to do - at least for now.

 

As with all things COVID-19, things are just going to depend on varying political, social and economic interests.

 

[SelectSys]

13 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I mentioned the Johns Hopkins Study because it focused on the issue you raise about test that might be done prematurely.  But consider that this is a huge problem for the cruise lines.  Most folks spend 1-3 days in travel mode just going from home to their cruise port.  While in travel mode many are in airports, planes, hotels, restaurants, and other places that increase their risk of being exposed to COVID.  But when they get to the port it is unlikely that any recent exposure will trigger a positive antigen (or even PCR) test.  So, those folks will be able to embark on their cruise with any symptoms of COVID likely showing-up during the cruise.

 

Hank

 

That is why I believe cruising will be one of the lagging travel-related businesses.  Cruising requires almost continuous testing and other measures for a large, concentrated population.  Dealing with positive cases on board represents another logistical nightmare.

 

My own personal estimate is that I won't be back on a ship before 2022 at the earliest.  I hope I am wrong.

Edited August 28, 2020 by SelectSys

[ldubs]

5 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

 

 

Finally, you need to think of testing as one tactic in an overall strategy.  I have posted several times that I don't believe a magic bullet exists and that a layered approach of multiple measures (e.g., distancing, masks, ..)  are what is required to move ahead.

 

I still haven't changed my opinion that a test heavy future is ahead of us for the foreseeable future.  Fortunately, the availability and cost of these tests continue to decline.  I am expecting the quality to improve as well.

 

 

 

I could not agree more.  There is no silver bullet.  Testing is just another layer of prevention and is effective even if not 100% accurate.  I hope I'm wrong but while tests will improve I suspect anyone waiting for a 100% guarantee of protection is going to have a long wait.    

[lenquixote66]

Tomorrow night I will be Zooming a wedding where 150 people will be .The cocktail hour will be indoors ,the ceremony and the rest of the wedding outdoors but in a tent.

From what I have heard the majority of those attending do not plan to wear makes or socially distance.People just do not care anymore.

[ilikeanswers]

5 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

I think it will depend somewhat on the country and situation.  Australia's tolerances for risks may be lower than other countries. 

 

My guess is that Australia's hesitance in opening up is a combination of success in controlling the disease as well as the relatively strong performance of the economy.  The FT suggests that the Chinese are still buying  record levels of coal and other resources from Australia: https://www.ft.com/content/0a15f9c4-3add-49d5-af78-b0c1c5e78dfb

 

The UK, with BREXIT, may not feel quite so "lucky"  as your homeland.  The UK performance with the COVID-19 is certainly different and they may feel the need to itself more closely to the US economically after leaving the EU.  As a result, the UK may do things that Australia is currently unwilling to do - at least for now.

 

As with all things COVID-19, things are just going to depend on varying political, social and economic interests.

 

 

Your article is behind a paywall so I don't know what it says but Australia and China are not exactly on friendly terms these days and coal despite the press coverage is actually a tiny percentage of our economy. Economically we are not doing great. Opening up would be hugely beneficial but this requires cooperation from other countries and unless those countries are willing or able to agree to the same terms you can't have a travel bubble. Travel bubbles are not something you can make by yourself😂.

 

As for the UK just because they are leaving the EU doesn't mean they are abandoning it. It is hard to fight geography and the fact is the UK is heavily reliant on EU countries for a lot of industries especially tourism. If they are going to bubble it will be with EU countries before the US. This stuff complicated and it not just about whether you can test. There is politics and other things involved. 

Welcome to a World of Bubbles

[clo]

2 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

I could not agree more.  There is no silver bullet.  Testing is just another layer of prevention and is effective even if not 100% accurate.  I hope I'm wrong but while tests will improve I suspect anyone waiting for a 100% guarantee of protection is going to have a long wait.    

With all the false positives and negatives, the only thing that will work for me is proven - as in lengthy clinical trials - vaccine.

[iancal]

Do not know.  We probably will not even think of booking for the next year.  We expect fewer cruise ships, no idea what airlines will still be in business.

 

Far too many unknowns at this point in time.  One think for certain.  We will not let our desire to cruise overshadow our desire to protect our health and well being.  MS Covid is not on our decision tree no matter what the logo on the funnel is.

[SelectSys]

48 minutes ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I don't know what it says but Australia and China are not exactly on friendly terms these days and coal despite the press coverage is actually a tiny percentage of our economy. Economically we are not doing great. 

 

It is hard to fight geography and the fact is the UK is heavily reliant on EU countries for a lot of industries especially tourism. If they are going to bubble it will be with EU countries before the US. This stuff complicated and it not just about whether you can test. There is politics and other things involved. 

Welcome to a World of Bubbles

 

I understand Australia isn't doing great economically and may be experiencing it's first recession in 29 years according to CNN.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/economy/australia-recession/index.html  Relatively speaking, however, Australia is doing great relative to most other highly developed countries including the US (most likely) and certainly most countries in Europe.  This says nothing about middle income countries and lower that are desperate for economic activity and opening.

 

I understand Australia isn't on the best of terms with China.  Exports and friendliness are distinct concepts.  Fortunately, the importance of Australian imports to the Chinese economy make it difficult for them to bully Australia too much.  Good for Australia!

 

In terms of exports, your Government says iron ore; coal; natural gas (more than 10% of GNP collectively) are the top 3 and China (26%) is your number #1 market.  I believe these basic industries wouldn't be good in the near term for Australia and especially in the western part.

https://www.austrade.gov.au/news/economic-analysis/australia-a-solid-trade-performance#:~:text=Top exports%3A minerals%2C services %26,crude petroleum%3B and copper ore.

 

To be honest, I don't really believe bubbles are all that practical except on a temporary basis like the rich are doing for their parties.  Our Governor suggested today that we are in for the long haul and issued new guidelines for "living with COVID-19."  I see a future of layered testing and other mitigation techniques being used to manage COVID-19. 

 

Maybe Australia can eliminate all COVID and stay largely isolated while creating limited bubbles with New Zealand and a few other places.  I just don't see it happening world wide and the UK will likely chose another path as Europe is proving that once a shutdown is lifted, case management becomes really tough.

 

I do strongly agree with you that this is complicated and highly political.  We shall see what happens.  It's going to be a long journey.  I hope to cruise in 2022 at the earliest.

 

 

[SelectSys]

18 minutes ago, iancal said:

Do not know.  We probably will not even think of booking for the next year.  We expect fewer cruise ships, no idea what airlines will still be in business.

 

My optimistic guess is 2022 for cruising.