Rare BlerkOne Posted July 3, 2022 #251 Share Posted July 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said: Yep, 2 more months of the 'summer season' that they also do not expect to generate net income. It could happen. But as Arnold Donald is still at the helm, perhaps not. Lame Duck, doncha know. 12 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said: Given such, the lipstick will continue to be heavy and the statements well parsed. While the SEC can't send anyone to jail, they can work with the DOJ if fraudulent statements are filed. It simply isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john91498 Posted July 3, 2022 #252 Share Posted July 3, 2022 But yet companies do it all the time. Our CFO can spin the covenants to please the banks all the time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare At Sea At Peace Posted July 4, 2022 #253 Share Posted July 4, 2022 14 hours ago, BlerkOne said: It could happen. But as Arnold Donald is still at the helm, perhaps not. Lame Duck, doncha know. Until July 31st. Is it really comforting that the de facto expert is "leaving" during the period of attempted survival (heading to the BOD versus hands on CEO is not a good sign at this time). 14 hours ago, BlerkOne said: While the SEC can't send anyone to jail, they can work with the DOJ if fraudulent statements are filed. It simply isn't worth it. Actually, although the SEC can recommend to law enforcement, the real financial risk for the "lipsticking" and "parsing" is the cavalry of securities class action law firms and hedge funds. There is no basis for a reasonably prudent person to believe the customer deposits that provide the most liquidity are being used to provide cruise operations for passengers, crew, ports and islands, and corporate "now." There is zero guarantee that those deposits will still be there to be honored in later quarters and years. CCL needs $2B MORE in new debt (at least) to refinance existing debt maturity requirements this year. It doesn't look good unless they are willing to junk bond them at 13%+ and possibly rising. WHY? They were only able to raise $1B (out of $3B needed) five weeks ago in May @ 10.5% (on the maturing @ 6%). Within weeks, these 2030 maturity bonds are trading at 89.4% of face raising the yield (effective interest rate) to 12.7%. This means the current market expected cost of a $2B bond issuance would be 12.7% of face rate. This all happened in FIVE WEEKS! During the "best quarterly lipsticking" of terrible operating results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BlerkOne Posted July 4, 2022 #254 Share Posted July 4, 2022 6 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said: Until July 31st. Is it really comforting that the de facto expert is "leaving" during the period of attempted survival (heading to the BOD versus hands on CEO is not a good sign at this time). Expert? Arnold Donald came from Boeing. When was the 737 Max program announced? 2011. 6 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said: They were only able to raise $1B (out of $3B needed) five weeks ago in May @ 10.5% (on the maturing @ 6%). Within weeks, these 2030 maturity bonds are trading at 89.4% of face raising the yield (effective interest rate) to 12.7%. This means the current market expected cost of a $2B bond issuance would be 12.7% of face rate. I Bonds are paying 9.62%. 12.7% to refinance and push debt out would be cheap. 6 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said: This all happened in FIVE WEEKS! During the "best quarterly lipsticking" of terrible operating results. No comment on your obsession with lipstick. 3rd quarter is looking even bester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john91498 Posted July 4, 2022 #255 Share Posted July 4, 2022 And the winner is...at sea at peace...not sure why the other guy is trying and failing miserably to make a non existent point... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare At Sea At Peace Posted July 5, 2022 #256 Share Posted July 5, 2022 5 hours ago, BlerkOne said: Expert? Arnold Donald came from Boeing. When was the 737 Max program announced? 2011. I never said he was or was not an expert. I said he was leaving, in the the period of time where his "expertise" would be most valuable. So, why? Also, I really don't think Boeing's 7373 Max program is a cruise ship or line model. 5 hours ago, BlerkOne said: I Bonds are paying 9.62%. 12.7% to refinance and push debt out would be cheap. CCL doesn't have to pay I Bonds, they pay CCL bonds. 12.7%, effective, after 5 weeks at a face of 10.5% is nasty. If pushing out debt at this rate was CHEAP, why could they only garner $1B of the the $3B they needed? 5 hours ago, BlerkOne said: No comment on your obsession with lipstick. 3rd quarter is looking even bester. "Lipstick" is a term more commonly use when applied to a pig that such is still a pig. It's sort of a financial linguistic vernacular. I have no obsession with such, simply recognize and acknowledge the commonly used term by financial professionals. Regarding "the 3rd quarter is looking even bester" (SIC); "bester" than what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BlerkOne Posted July 5, 2022 #257 Share Posted July 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said: I never said he was or was not an expert. I said he was leaving, in the the period of time where his "expertise" would be most valuable. So, why? What expertise does he have, other than being a beard? He isn't a cruise expert. 3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said: CCL doesn't have to pay I Bonds, they pay CCL bonds. 12.7%, effective, after 5 weeks at a face of 10.5% is nasty. If pushing out debt at this rate was CHEAP, why could they only garner $1B of the the $3B they needed? Carnival has never had trouble raising money. The institutions that have bought their junk bonds will keep buying them to protect their investment. There is light at the end of the tunnel. 3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said: "Lipstick" is a term more commonly use when applied to a pig that such is still a pig. It's sort of a financial linguistic vernacular. I have no obsession with such, simply recognize and acknowledge the commonly used term by financial professionals. Sounds sexist. 3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said: Regarding "the 3rd quarter is looking even bester" (SIC); "bester" than what? Bester than what you said was best. Considering the restart of cruising was barely a year ago, and entire fleets are sailing, the bestest is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare At Sea At Peace Posted July 5, 2022 #258 Share Posted July 5, 2022 11 hours ago, BlerkOne said: Carnival has never had trouble raising money. The institutions that have bought their junk bonds will keep buying them to protect their investment. There is light at the end of the tunnel. A read of the current attempts by CCL to raise money via debt fell short by 2/3rds of what they needed. So, that light at the end of the tunnel is on a train wreck oncoming. 11 hours ago, BlerkOne said: Sounds sexist. Usually those making such out of what was clearly defined and unrelated to such claim are the ones actually making gutter and deflected allegations, due to the inability of and the absence of rationally countering the core discussion matter. So, try to keep it clean. 11 hours ago, BlerkOne said: Bester than what you said was best. Considering the restart of cruising was barely a year ago, and entire fleets are sailing, the bestest is yet to come. Then why, when sailing with $4B in revenues did they lose almost the same $4B in net losses as when they only had $75M in revenues in the previous comparative period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LHARTWICK Posted July 6, 2022 #259 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Anyone else have a headache from this thread???🤕 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BlerkOne Posted July 6, 2022 #260 Share Posted July 6, 2022 On 7/5/2022 at 7:01 AM, At Sea At Peace said: Usually those making such out of what was clearly defined and unrelated to such claim are the ones actually making gutter and deflected allegations, due to the inability of and the absence of rationally countering the core discussion matter. Not in this case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Illbcruzn4life Posted July 21, 2022 #261 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Carnival to offer 1 bilion dollars of stock: Carnival Corporation & plc Announces Pricing of Offering of Common Stock | Carnival Corporation & plc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smears Posted July 21, 2022 #262 Share Posted July 21, 2022 so is it a buy? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowroller Posted July 21, 2022 #263 Share Posted July 21, 2022 4 hours ago, smears said: so is it a buy? I'm buying the Pig, have you seen the price of bacon? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tidecat Posted July 21, 2022 #264 Share Posted July 21, 2022 I expect a secondary offering to be a more or less annual event until either interest rates come down, or Carnival can reduce its debt load to historical levels. Even if the company makes $3B/year for the next few years, it may very well be 2027 before Carnival is in a position not to have to dilute the stock - Carnival needs to shed $15B in debt, if not closer to $20B just to get back to pre-pandemic levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Cruiser Posted July 21, 2022 Author #265 Share Posted July 21, 2022 5 hours ago, smears said: so is it a buy? Not the time to be buying a further diluted stock. Down considerably from yesterday as you would expect with another $1 billion of stock being sold. Yes, other cruise lines are down today as well, but not like the 12+% that Carnival has dropped. Outside of the onboard credit, there's not a lot of upside in the near future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuddrules Posted July 21, 2022 #266 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) I just bought (a few seconds ago). How will the stock be in 5 years? Hoping much higher but....could go poof. We shall see. Edited July 21, 2022 by fuddrules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuddrules Posted July 21, 2022 #267 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Today's gain - +$135.08 That was super quick - should I sell 🤑 LOL 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smears Posted July 22, 2022 #268 Share Posted July 22, 2022 So if I'm understanding this correctly, I can get 100 obc on a cruise under 14 days, and 250 obc on one 14 days or longer if I have 100 shares? https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f So if I have 2 cruises booked right now, one 8 day and another 14 day, then I'd get 350 obc between the 2? And I can get the 100 shares for under 1000 bucks right now. So assuming I'm going to spend that $ drinking and gambling anyway, I could just buy the shares and use the obc, and if the 1000 bucks depreciates by 350 bucks, then it's just like I had to pay for my own drinks? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Mary229 Posted July 22, 2022 #269 Share Posted July 22, 2022 3 hours ago, smears said: So if I'm understanding this correctly, I can get 100 obc on a cruise under 14 days, and 250 obc on one 14 days or longer if I have 100 shares? https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f So if I have 2 cruises booked right now, one 8 day and another 14 day, then I'd get 350 obc between the 2? And I can get the 100 shares for under 1000 bucks right now. So assuming I'm going to spend that $ drinking and gambling anyway, I could just buy the shares and use the obc, and if the 1000 bucks depreciates by 350 bucks, then it's just like I had to pay for my own drinks? Exactly. It has been approved until July 2023. Remember it can be revoked in the future just like the dividend was. You need only 100 shares, more doesn’t help. Only one OBC per stateroom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare ontheweb Posted July 22, 2022 #270 Share Posted July 22, 2022 4 hours ago, Mary229 said: Exactly. It has been approved until July 2023. Remember it can be revoked in the future just like the dividend was. You need only 100 shares, more doesn’t help. Only one OBC per stateroom Theoretically it could be revoked (or not renewed) like the dividend, but they are really 2 different things. The shareholder OBC is a marketing tool that costs them next to nothing. The dividend is something that companies pay out of profits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Mary229 Posted July 22, 2022 #271 Share Posted July 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, ontheweb said: Theoretically it could be revoked (or not renewed) like the dividend, but they are really 2 different things. The shareholder OBC is a marketing tool that costs them next to nothing. The dividend is something that companies pay out of profits. I have watched the dismissal of shareholder benefits over the years. There used to be hundreds of companies offering a benefit now there are only a handful. They started disappearing when the mailed annual report disappeared. My favorite was going to the PepsiCo meeting and coming home with two big bags of snacks and beverages. Now that my schedule is loosened up I may have to attend again to see if they still have the “loot” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare ontheweb Posted July 22, 2022 #272 Share Posted July 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mary229 said: I have watched the dismissal of shareholder benefits over the years. There used to be hundreds of companies offering a benefit now there are only a handful. They started disappearing when the mailed annual report disappeared. My favorite was going to the PepsiCo meeting and coming home with two big bags of snacks and beverages. Now that my schedule is loosened up I may have to attend again to see if they still have the “loot” When Covid first hit, there was all kinds of speculation on these boards whether Carnival Corporation would do away with the benefit (many were absolutely sure they would) or require more than 100 shares. Instead what they did was extend it 2 years instead of the usual 1 year. It is still a cheap marketing tool. Getting rid of it would be foolish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Tom-n-Cheryl Posted July 22, 2022 #273 Share Posted July 22, 2022 43 minutes ago, Mary229 said: I have watched the dismissal of shareholder benefits over the years. There used to be hundreds of companies offering a benefit now there are only a handful. They started disappearing when the mailed annual report disappeared. My favorite was going to the PepsiCo meeting and coming home with two big bags of snacks and beverages. Now that my schedule is loosened up I may have to attend again to see if they still have the “loot” I had a friend in middle school (70's) whose father had purchased some shares of Wrigley for him. I fondly recall him each year getting a box of Juicy Fruit gum. Probably helps to explain at least a couple of fillings too... (I decided to lookup their benefits and came across THIS) Tom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Mary229 Posted July 22, 2022 #274 Share Posted July 22, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said: I had a friend in middle school (70's) whose father had purchased some shares of Wrigley for him. I fondly recall him each year getting a box of Juicy Fruit gum. Probably helps to explain at least a couple of fillings too... (I decided to lookup their benefits and came across THIS) Tom Yes but there used to be hundreds. It really doesn’t add much, shareholders largely are not customers. And most shareholders own their shares via ETFs and Mutual funds Edited July 22, 2022 by Mary229 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskabride Posted July 22, 2022 #275 Share Posted July 22, 2022 I just bought 100 shares today. I’m hoping they will grant my OBC for my November cruise. The price of shares is so cheap right now I couldn’t resist. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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