Carnival Stock Below $10

[BlerkOne]

12 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Yep, 2 more months of the 'summer season' that they also do not expect to generate net income.

 

It could happen. But as Arnold Donald is still at the helm, perhaps not. Lame Duck, doncha know.

 

12 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Given such, the lipstick will continue to be heavy and the statements well parsed.

 

While the SEC can't send anyone to jail, they can work with the DOJ if fraudulent statements are filed. It simply isn't worth it.

[john91498]

But yet companies do it all the time. Our CFO can spin the covenants to please the banks all the time... 

[At Sea At Peace]

14 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

It could happen. But as Arnold Donald is still at the helm, perhaps not. Lame Duck, doncha know.

 

 

Until July 31st.  

 

Is it really comforting that the de facto expert is "leaving" during the period of attempted survival (heading to the BOD versus hands on CEO is not a good sign at this time).

 

14 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

While the SEC can't send anyone to jail, they can work with the DOJ if fraudulent statements are filed. It simply isn't worth it.

 

Actually, although the SEC can recommend to law enforcement, the real financial risk for the "lipsticking" and "parsing" is the cavalry of securities class action law firms and hedge funds.

 

There is no basis for a reasonably prudent person to believe the customer deposits that provide the most liquidity are being used to provide cruise operations for passengers, crew, ports and islands, and corporate "now."  There is zero guarantee that those deposits will still be there to be honored in later quarters and years.

 

CCL needs $2B MORE in new debt (at least) to refinance existing debt maturity requirements this year.  It doesn't look good unless they are willing to junk bond them at 13%+ and possibly rising.  WHY?

 

They were only able to raise $1B (out of $3B needed) five weeks ago in May @ 10.5% (on the maturing @ 6%).  Within weeks, these 2030 maturity bonds are trading at 89.4% of face raising the yield (effective interest rate) to 12.7%.  This means the current market expected cost of a $2B bond issuance would be 12.7% of face rate.

 

This all happened in FIVE WEEKS!  During the "best quarterly lipsticking" of terrible operating results.

 

[BlerkOne]

6 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Until July 31st.  

 

Is it really comforting that the de facto expert is "leaving" during the period of attempted survival (heading to the BOD versus hands on CEO is not a good sign at this time).

 

Expert? Arnold Donald came from Boeing. When was the 737 Max program announced? 2011.

 

 

6 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

They were only able to raise $1B (out of $3B needed) five weeks ago in May @ 10.5% (on the maturing @ 6%).  Within weeks, these 2030 maturity bonds are trading at 89.4% of face raising the yield (effective interest rate) to 12.7%.  This means the current market expected cost of a $2B bond issuance would be 12.7% of face rate.

 

I Bonds are paying 9.62%. 12.7% to refinance and push debt out would be cheap.

 

6 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

This all happened in FIVE WEEKS!  During the "best quarterly lipsticking" of terrible operating results.

 

 

No comment on your obsession with lipstick. 3rd quarter is looking even bester.

[john91498]

And the winner is...at sea at peace...not sure why the other guy is trying and failing miserably to make a non existent point...

[At Sea At Peace]

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Expert? Arnold Donald came from Boeing. When was the 737 Max program announced? 2011.

 

I never said he was or was not an expert.  I said he was leaving, in the the period of time where his "expertise" would be most valuable.  So, why?

 

Also, I really don't think Boeing's 7373 Max program is a cruise ship or line model.  

 

 

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

I Bonds are paying 9.62%. 12.7% to refinance and push debt out would be cheap.

 

 

CCL doesn't have to pay I Bonds, they pay CCL bonds.  12.7%, effective, after 5 weeks at a face of 10.5% is nasty.  If pushing out debt at this rate was CHEAP, why could they only garner $1B of the the $3B they needed?

 

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

No comment on your obsession with lipstick. 3rd quarter is looking even bester.

 

"Lipstick" is a term more commonly use when applied to a pig that such is still a pig.  It's sort of a financial linguistic vernacular. I have no obsession with such, simply recognize and acknowledge the commonly used term by financial professionals.  

 

Regarding "the 3rd quarter is looking even bester" (SIC); "bester" than what?

 

 

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

I never said he was or was not an expert.  I said he was leaving, in the the period of time where his "expertise" would be most valuable.  So, why?

What expertise does he have, other than being a beard? He isn't a cruise expert.

 

3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

CCL doesn't have to pay I Bonds, they pay CCL bonds.  12.7%, effective, after 5 weeks at a face of 10.5% is nasty.  If pushing out debt at this rate was CHEAP, why could they only garner $1B of the the $3B they needed?

Carnival has never had trouble raising money. The institutions that have bought their junk bonds will keep buying them to protect their investment. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

 

3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

 

"Lipstick" is a term more commonly use when applied to a pig that such is still a pig.  It's sort of a financial linguistic vernacular. I have no obsession with such, simply recognize and acknowledge the commonly used term by financial professionals.  

 

Sounds sexist.

 

3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Regarding "the 3rd quarter is looking even bester" (SIC); "bester" than what?

 

 

Bester than what you said was best. Considering the restart of cruising was barely a year ago, and entire fleets are sailing, the bestest is yet to come.

[At Sea At Peace]

11 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Carnival has never had trouble raising money. The institutions that have bought their junk bonds will keep buying them to protect their investment. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

A read of the current attempts by CCL to raise money via debt fell short by 2/3rds of what they needed.  So, that light at the end of the tunnel is on a train wreck oncoming.

 

 

11 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Sounds sexist.

 

 

Usually those making such out of what was clearly defined and unrelated to such claim are the ones actually making gutter and deflected allegations, due to the inability of and the absence of rationally countering the core discussion matter.

 

So, try to keep it clean.

 

11 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Bester than what you said was best. Considering the restart of cruising was barely a year ago, and entire fleets are sailing, the bestest is yet to come.

 

Then why, when sailing with $4B in revenues did they lose almost the same $4B in net losses as when they only had $75M in revenues in the previous comparative period.

 

 

 

[LHARTWICK]

Anyone else have a headache from this thread???🤕

[BlerkOne]

On 7/5/2022 at 7:01 AM, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Usually those making such out of what was clearly defined and unrelated to such claim are the ones actually making gutter and deflected allegations, due to the inability of and the absence of rationally countering the core discussion matter.

 

Not in this case.

[Illbcruzn4life]

Carnival to offer 1 bilion dollars of stock:

 

Carnival Corporation & plc Announces Pricing of Offering of Common Stock | Carnival Corporation & plc

[smears]

so is it a buy?

[lowroller]

4 hours ago, smears said:

so is it a buy?

I'm buying the Pig, have you seen the price of bacon?

[tidecat]

I expect a secondary offering to be a more or less annual event until either interest rates come down, or Carnival can reduce its debt load to historical levels. Even if the company makes $3B/year for the next few years, it may very well be 2027 before Carnival is in a position not to have to dilute the stock - Carnival needs to shed $15B in debt, if not closer to $20B just to get back to pre-pandemic levels.

[Lee Cruiser]

5 hours ago, smears said:

so is it a buy?

Not the time to be buying a further diluted stock.  Down considerably from yesterday as you would expect with another $1 billion of stock being sold.  Yes, other cruise lines are down today as well, but not like the 12+% that Carnival has dropped.  Outside of the onboard credit, there's not a lot of upside in the near future.

[fuddrules]

I just bought (a few seconds ago).  How will the stock be in 5 years?  Hoping much higher but....could go poof.  We shall see.

Edited July 21, 2022 by fuddrules

[fuddrules]

Today's gain - +$135.08

 

That was super quick - should I sell  🤑    LOL

[smears]

So if I'm understanding this correctly, I can get 100 obc on a cruise under 14 days, and 250 obc on one 14 days or longer if I have 100 shares?

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

 

So if I have 2 cruises booked right now, one 8 day and another 14 day, then I'd get 350 obc between the 2? And I can get the 100 shares for under 1000 bucks right now.

 

So assuming I'm going to spend that $ drinking and gambling anyway, I could just buy the shares and use the obc, and if the 1000 bucks depreciates by 350 bucks, then it's just like I had to pay for my own drinks?

 

 

[Mary229]

3 hours ago, smears said:

So if I'm understanding this correctly, I can get 100 obc on a cruise under 14 days, and 250 obc on one 14 days or longer if I have 100 shares?

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

 

So if I have 2 cruises booked right now, one 8 day and another 14 day, then I'd get 350 obc between the 2? And I can get the 100 shares for under 1000 bucks right now.

 

So assuming I'm going to spend that $ drinking and gambling anyway, I could just buy the shares and use the obc, and if the 1000 bucks depreciates by 350 bucks, then it's just like I had to pay for my own drinks?

 

 

Exactly. It has been approved until July 2023.  Remember it can be revoked in the future just like the dividend was.  You need only 100 shares, more doesn’t help. Only one OBC per stateroom 

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Exactly. It has been approved until July 2023.  Remember it can be revoked in the future just like the dividend was.  You need only 100 shares, more doesn’t help. Only one OBC per stateroom 

Theoretically it could be revoked (or not renewed) like the dividend, but they are really 2 different things. The shareholder OBC is a marketing tool that costs them next to nothing. The dividend is something that companies pay out of profits.

[Mary229]

6 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Theoretically it could be revoked (or not renewed) like the dividend, but they are really 2 different things. The shareholder OBC is a marketing tool that costs them next to nothing. The dividend is something that companies pay out of profits.

I have watched the dismissal of shareholder benefits over the years.  There used to be hundreds of companies offering a benefit now there are only a handful.  They started disappearing when the mailed annual report disappeared.  My favorite was going to the PepsiCo meeting and coming home with two big bags of snacks and beverages.  Now that my schedule is loosened up I may have to attend again to see if they still have the “loot”

[ontheweb]

2 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I have watched the dismissal of shareholder benefits over the years.  There used to be hundreds of companies offering a benefit now there are only a handful.  They started disappearing when the mailed annual report disappeared.  My favorite was going to the PepsiCo meeting and coming home with two big bags of snacks and beverages.  Now that my schedule is loosened up I may have to attend again to see if they still have the “loot”

When Covid first hit, there was all kinds of speculation on these boards whether Carnival Corporation would do away with the benefit (many were absolutely sure they would) or require more than 100 shares. Instead what they did was extend it 2 years instead of the usual 1 year. It is still a cheap marketing tool. Getting rid of it would be foolish.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

43 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I have watched the dismissal of shareholder benefits over the years.  There used to be hundreds of companies offering a benefit now there are only a handful.  They started disappearing when the mailed annual report disappeared.  My favorite was going to the PepsiCo meeting and coming home with two big bags of snacks and beverages.  Now that my schedule is loosened up I may have to attend again to see if they still have the “loot”

 

I had a friend in middle school (70's) whose father had purchased some shares of Wrigley for him. I fondly recall him each year getting a box of Juicy Fruit gum. Probably helps to explain at least a couple of fillings too...

 

(I decided to lookup their benefits and came across THIS)

 

Tom

[Mary229]

6 minutes ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

I had a friend in middle school (70's) whose father had purchased some shares of Wrigley for him. I fondly recall him each year getting a box of Juicy Fruit gum. Probably helps to explain at least a couple of fillings too...

 

(I decided to lookup their benefits and came across THIS)

 

Tom

Yes but there used to be hundreds.  It really doesn’t add much, shareholders largely are not customers.  And most shareholders own their shares via ETFs and Mutual funds

Edited July 22, 2022 by Mary229

[Alaskabride]

I just bought 100 shares today. I’m hoping they will grant my OBC for my November cruise. The price of shares is so cheap right now I couldn’t resist.