Carnival Stock Below $10

[Eli_6]

I don't think anyone is planning on retiring on CCL stock. It's hardly Class A Berkshire Hathaway.  Buy it for the stockholder credit. It will pay for itself in 8-9 cruises, more or less.  If you make a profit, all the better. If you lose your money, it is basically the cost of the drink package for one cruise.  Not rocket science. 

  

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

10 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

I don't think anyone is planning on retiring on CCL stock. It's hardly Class A Berkshire Hathaway.  Buy it for the stockholder credit. It will pay for itself in 8-9 cruises, more or less.  If you make a profit, all the better. If you lose your money, it is basically the cost of the drink package for one cruise.  Not rocket science. 

  

 

I don't know - if it hits $500/share I'd retire !   😄 

 

(is that part of my plan? - heck no!)

 

Tom

[ontheweb]

11 hours ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

In my late teens I worked at a restaurant which went bankrupt. It was then that I understood the pecking order - creditors chewed up the remaining assets, and the staff were left with nothing... I think that shareholders would mirror the staff experience!
 

Tom

It is only the attorneys that make out like bandits.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

14 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

It is only the attorneys that make out like bandits.

 

The middlemen always smile on their way to the bank !

 

Tom

[Eli_6]

The attorneys don't do THAT well. I don't think anyone comes out well in a Bankruptcy.  I have been involved as an attorney in several bankruptcies and large Ponzi schemes including the second largest ponzi scheme in history.  The fact that I am still cruising with Carnival should tell you how much I did/didn't make...

 

(I kid. I kid. Sort of.)  

Edited June 20, 2022 by Eli_6

[ontheweb]

31 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

The attorneys don't do THAT well. I don't think anyone comes out well in a Bankruptcy.  I have been involved as an attorney in several bankruptcies and large Ponzi schemes including the second largest ponzi scheme in history.  The fact that I am still cruising with Carnival should tell you how much I did/didn't make...

 

(I kid. I kid. Sort of.)  

How do attorneys do compared to stockholders? Probably rather well.

[Eli_6]

13 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

How do attorneys do compared to stockholders? Probably rather well.

Considering most of the legislators who write the laws are attorneys, of course they make sure they get paid. With that said, attorneys fees always have to be reasonable both in rate and hours billed so simply because an attorney bills for it doesn't mean they will get it. 

 

Sometimes the stockholders come out ok in a bankruptcy. I know there was at least one reorganization where they actually did well. It was one on the oil companies...can't recall which one. Usually they don't, though.

 

I do know there is definitely case law for people who have gift certificates, though, because I researched this awhile back when Covid first hit because I had paid for a Europe cruise with 6k in gift cards right before the shut down and I was trying to figure out if I should take the FCC/OBC or get my refund to the gift cards.  I ended up taking the FCC because I doubt if the court would treat someone with FCC any different than someone with gift cards and at least with the FCC I got OBC for my risk.  That case law actually came out of the Radio Shack bankruptcy, I think.  But my bread and butter was never bankruptcy. I usually represented creditors, not the company who was bankrupt. And this was not the majority of my practice.  In the big Ponzi scheme case I worked on, the receiver was actually trying to "claw back" money that had already been disbursed years before to other innocent investors that had nothing to do with the fraud scheme. Some of these disbursements were more than a decade old. 

 

My point is, though, most attorneys don't get rich unless they get lucky in some class action like suing big tobacco, etc. We have a comfortable lifestyle, but so do many other professions.  

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

Considering most of the legislators who write the laws are attorneys, of course they make sure they get paid. With that said, attorneys fees always have to be reasonable both in rate and hours billed so simply because an attorney bills for it doesn't mean they will get it. 

 

 

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, ontheweb said:

 

I was quoting @Eli_6 but somehow the post went through without me being able to write what I wished to write. So, here goes.

 

Lawyers looking out for lawyers, the way of the world. As the great, late Warren Zevon wrote and sang:

 

"Send lawyers, guns, and money."

 

I am proud to say that my representative in the NY legislature is NOT a lawyer. She (and I know her because our son and one of her daughters went to school together) is a NURSE.  She has wrote legislation mandating standards for staffing at hospitals. In other words, she has looked out for common people, not just fellow lawyers.

 

2 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

 

 

[mz-s]

13 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I was quoting @Eli_6 but somehow the post went through without me being able to write what I wished to write. So, here goes.

 

Lawyers looking out for lawyers, the way of the world. As the great, late Warren Zevon wrote and sang:

 

"Send lawyers, guns, and money."

 

I am proud to say that my representative in the NY legislature is NOT a lawyer. She (and I know her because our son and one of her daughters went to school together) is a NURSE.  She has wrote legislation mandating standards for staffing at hospitals. In other words, she has looked out for common people, not just fellow lawyers.

 

 

 

A nurse writing legislation for nursing is somehow better than a lawyer writing legislation for the legal profession? Seems to be two sides of the same coin to me. Both can be bad or good depending on the legislation.

[ontheweb]

58 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

A nurse writing legislation for nursing is somehow better than a lawyer writing legislation for the legal profession? Seems to be two sides of the same coin to me. Both can be bad or good depending on the legislation.

No, I see making sure hospital staffing is not below a dangerous level a protection for any of us who may at some point need to be hospitalized. I don't see where protecting lawyers' fees is for anyone's benefit other than lawyers.

 

And without her unique for legislators experience, no bill like this would pass, let alone even be proposed.

[At Sea At Peace]

CCL's earning release was very pathetic based on fundamentals.  Unfortunately, the stock market, especially traders, make money on volatility in the short run and could care less about such basics.

 

[As a side note, CCL, RCL and NCLH "debt" has fallen off the table since 12/31/2021 "massively" and CCL "debt" has moved from much smaller than "stockholder's equity" to overwhelming it proportionally.  So, the drop in the valuations of debt speak through a louder megaphone than equity stock PPS changes.]

 

Back to the CCL earning release, YIKES (yes, I am screaming).  😉

 

Here is copy of a post in another stock thread.  CCL (and RCL and NCLH) management and governing boards have to stop using the "bookings are good" and "on board spending is up" and "the number of our cruise ships back in service is..." LIPSTICK.

 

Seriously read the below, especially the last line.  It is stunning (fundamentally).

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509722000044/a20222qbusinessupdate8-k.htm

 

 

[At Sea At Peace]

10 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

[As a side note, CCL, RCL and NCLH "debt" has fallen off the table since 12/31/2021 "massively" and CCL "debt" has moved from much smaller than "stockholder's equity" to overwhelming it proportionally.  So, the drop in the valuations of debt speak through a louder megaphone than equity stock PPS changes.]

 

 

Just wanted to support such previous statement that "debt" is a better weighted indicator of what's going on.  The CCL debt issuance, depending on features, are dropping since the beginning of the year; some by  40%+- (raising the imputed "yield" to junk bond status).

 

 

Pretty much the same general message from RCL's.

 

 

 

[CroozFanatic]

A stock wipeout is bad, right?

 

Link

[mz-s]

Buy on the way up, not the way down...

[lostsoulcruiser]

Forget about $10 per share, stock now flirting with breaking below $9.

 

 

[ColeThornton]

Hit a 52 week low of $8.66 this morning.    Anyone gonna touch this right now?

 

~ insert evil laugh ~     😉

[Saint Greg]

1 minute ago, ColeThornton said:

Hit a 52 week low of $8.66 this morning.    Anyone gonna touch this right now?

 

~ insert evil laugh ~     😉

 

I thought the nacho burger would've helped more than it did.

[Mary229]

3 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

Hit a 52 week low of $8.66 this morning.    Anyone gonna touch this right now?

 

~ insert evil laugh ~     😉

Yes I will, I have an order in for $5. If I get it I will sell my old shares, after 30 days, and uses the losses to offset gains. Thereby dollar cost averaging down on my OBC generator 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Mary229

[Lee Cruiser]

Morgan Stanley today issued a price target of $7.   That's even more bad news.  Currently down nearly 15% today.  Other cruise lines are down as well, but not as much (around 9-10%).

[adjustman]

In my opinion, the real question is not whether Carnival Corporation will file for Chapter 11 reorganization but when. Unless they start selling assets i do not see how they can survive with the amount of debt they presently have.  This company is SO poorly managed. Micky Arison was successful in buying competing cruise lines but did not make an effort to run them efficiently. He was concerned only with managing the Miami Heat basketball team. Carnival Corporation was his father's legacy. It's ashame he did not attempt to preserve this legacy. In my humble opinion a veteran executive from another cruise line needs to come in and overhaul the company. Maybe this will happen if and when the company files for chapter 11 reorganization. 

Edited June 29, 2022 by adjustman

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Morgan Stanley today issued a price target of $7.   That's even more bad news.  Currently down nearly 15% today.  Other cruise lines are down as well, but not as much (around 9-10%).

This and this alone for today's drop. The brawl is a non-event.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/carnival-cruise-line-stock-plunges-135712730.html

 

[BlerkOne]

and in other news

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27776-carnival-cruise-line-to-operate-full-ships-this-summer-at-110-percent-occupancy.html

 

[LHARTWICK]

On 6/19/2022 at 8:14 PM, Eli_6 said:

 Buy it for the stockholder credit. It will pay for itself in 8-9 cruises, more or less. 

Only if you are granted the OBC.  Not as easy to get for shareholders now.

[Illbcruzn4life]

On 6/19/2022 at 3:53 PM, Mary229 said:

No, there is always zero

as this story alludes to:

 

Carnival Stock Could Fall to $0 in a Worst-Case Scenario, Analyst Says - MarketWatch