Are the Reports I've Read Claiming Numbers Like 20% of Departing Passengers Test Positive for Covid?

[mnocket]

I've seen several such reports and I'm having trouble believing them.  Are there any reliable statistics on this?

[klfrodo]

What are your sources that are allegedly reporting this? My quick google search doesn't find this number.

[CruiserBruce]

A good question....source?

 

And when you say "departing", you mean getting on, or off, the ship? I don't know who would be collecting stats on positives getting off the ship.

 

I would also expect similar numbers of those trying to fly into the US, when a negative test was required. But I don't know who would be collecting those stats either.

[Hlitner]

CruiseBruce was too kind.  The statistic is complete BS because it cannot possibly be based on anything.  Continue that for US Ports and many European ports there is no longer any required debarkation testing.  We have no idea what percentage of debarking passengers are positive for COVID and neither does anyone else.

 

Hank

[wcook]

The only statistic that might make sense - and I’m just guessing here - is that 20% of the people who are getting tested because they have possible symptoms are positive. 

[mnocket]

@Hlitner  

Kinda surprised at the tone of your response Hank.  I've always found you to be pretty even in temperament.  I was asking the question because I too doubted the reports I'd read and wondered if there were any statistics available.  Since pre-departure testing was previously required, until recently this data was being gathered - so not unreasonable to ask if it's available anywhere.

 

@CruiserBruce & @klfrodo

The reason I asked is because I'd read it a couple of times and doubted it was accurate.  The most recent was 

 I'm not going to take the time to search for the other reports.  Yes they are anecdotal, that's why I asked if there were published statistics. 

Edited July 10, 2022 by mnocket

[klfrodo]

1 hour ago, mnocket said:

I've seen several such reports and I'm having trouble believing them.  

 

19 minutes ago, mnocket said:

 

that's why I asked if there were published statistics. 

"I've seen several reports" vs. are there any published statistics are very distinct and separate statements and/or questions.

 

So, to answer your 2nd more accurate statement, no, I don't believe there are any published, peer reviewed, statistics.

 

I would imagine that Hank answered your original question not knowing that your actual interest was in published scientific criteria.

[mnocket]

2 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

"I've seen several reports" vs. are there any published statistics are very distinct and separate statements and/or questions.

Exactly, and the first led to the second.

fyi  Both were accurate statements (unless you still question that I've read several reports).

[DirtyDawg]

53 minutes ago, mnocket said:

Exactly, and the first led to the second.

fyi  Both were accurate statements (unless you still question that I've read several reports).

What were the reports you have read?

 

If one or two were from the Lancet or The New England Journal of Medicine or even the Economist (my fav) then you would likely take what they said over any opinion by any of us.  BTW the Economist hasn't had any reports along those lines.

 

But if they were from the likes of TwitCruiser on Twitter that's another storey. 

[mnocket]

25 minutes ago, DirtyDawg said:

What were the reports you have read?

 

If one or two were from the Lancet or The New England Journal of Medicine or even the Economist (my fav) then you would likely take what they said over any opinion by any of us.  BTW the Economist hasn't had any reports along those lines.

 

But if they were from the likes of TwitCruiser on Twitter that's another storey. 

As I said, they were anecdotal reports from recent cruisers.  Reports I doubt - hence my asking if anyone knew of any published data on the topic.  Until recently cruisers were required to test at the end of the cruise, so the cruise lines (and the CDC?) have such data. 

 

While I doubt the 20% number, it got me thinking..... I really don't know how many people test positive at the end of their cruises - i.e. what is the actual risk of contracting Covid on a cruise?  it would be nice to know this.  It would help us all to make informed decisions.

[GTO-Girl]

2 hours ago, mnocket said:

@Hlitner  

Kinda surprised at the tone of your response Hank.  I've always found you to be pretty even in temperament.  I was asking the question because I too doubted the reports I'd read and wondered if there were any statistics available.  Since pre-departure testing was previously required, until recently this data was being gathered - so not unreasonable to ask if it's available anywhere.

 

@CruiserBruce & @klfrodo

The reason I asked is because I'd read it a couple of times and doubted it was accurate.  The most recent was 

 I'm not going to take the time to search for the other reports.  Yes they are anecdotal, that's why I asked if there were published statistics. 

The testing has NOT be dropped for any sailings from the US.  I hate when articles are published with misleading headlines!  
 

Some people who never bother to read the actual article are going to not test and will miss their cruise!!

[CruiserBruce]

@mnocket, I appreciate your acknowledgment that in essence, this "evidence" is anecdotal. Many people have trouble with that distinction.

[SbbquilterUT]

Here is the problem with the guesses of positivity rate - unless you test everyone you do not know the % positive.  Since no cruise line, airline or resort is doing that we really do not know any more than we know how many people we sit with at work, church or at a bar are positive.  

[mom says]

1 hour ago, mnocket said:

  Until recently cruisers were required to test at the end of the cruise, so the cruise lines (and the CDC?) have such data

Uh, no. Not every cruise, and not every passenger. And the CDC only gets reports for cruises in and out of US ports. Some required a test at disembarkation  in order to fly either home or to travel to a different destination.  But not all. So even those data points are incomplete. And they would not catch the numbers who didn't test positive until a day or 2 later. Unless every cruise passenger was required to test for several consecutive days on and after disembarkation and then report the results, an accurate picture could never be seen.

Edited July 10, 2022 by mom says

[wcook]

26 minutes ago, SbbquilterUT said:

more than we know how many people we sit with at work, church or at a bar are positive.

That’s why I drink alone, yeah
With nobody else
Yeah, you know when I drink alone
I prefer to be by myself

[TheOldBear]

This may be venturing into 'red banner' territory - but the UK Office for National Statistics indicates an infection rate of about 1 in 21 for the UK as a whole, and about 1 in 15 for Scotland.

[CruiserBruce]

3 hours ago, mnocket said:

  Until recently cruisers were required to test at the end of the cruise, so the cruise lines (and the CDC?) have such data. 

Absolutely not true...at least since last September or so. If you sailed roundtrip out of a US port, and were a US resident, at least since September 2021, you didn't have to test to get off the ship. We sailed a B2B out of San Diego in Feb/March. There was no test to get off the ship, and hadn't been for months.

[ldubs]

5 hours ago, mnocket said:

As I said, they were anecdotal reports from recent cruisers.  Reports I doubt - hence my asking if anyone knew of any published data on the topic.  Until recently cruisers were required to test at the end of the cruise, so the cruise lines (and the CDC?) have such data. 

 

While I doubt the 20% number, it got me thinking..... I really don't know how many people test positive at the end of their cruises - i.e. what is the actual risk of contracting Covid on a cruise?  it would be nice to know this.  It would help us all to make informed decisions.

 

Five of our group of 15 tested positive from our recent May cruise.   If I had to make a bet, I would bet the rate of positives following a cruise is higher than positive rates on land,.  And yep, that is a pure guess based on what I suspect as opposed to what I know.   From what I glean on CC, a lot of folks who might  feel sick or self test positive are not going to tell anyone who might be in a position to compile that kind of information.  

[DirtyDawg]

13 hours ago, SbbquilterUT said:

Here is the problem with the guesses of positivity rate - unless you test everyone you do not know the % positive.  Since no cruise line, airline or resort is doing that we really do not know any more than we know how many people we sit with at work, church or at a bar are positive.  

In Ontario (Canada) we test wastewater and the scientists use that data to estimate Covid infection rates. Our current rate is 12.7% of the population has Covid. This is increasing due to the newest variant which is highly contagious. I can't comment on the methodology or the accuracy of the calculations as I'm not an Epidemiologist and I don't play one on the internet. But that's the number Public Health Ontario is publishing. So I suspect that theoretically cruise lines could measure their ships' positivity rate using a similar methodology .  But, of course, why would they? It serves no commercial purpose. I can't imagine a Royal advertising campaign touting a 5% positivity rate (or whatever it was) vs. Carnival's 10%, for example. Or "Rise to the Vacation" being replace with "No rise in our Covid Numbers". 

 

Until you test, it's all a guess. 

[2wheelin]

15 hours ago, GTO-Girl said:

The testing has NOT be dropped for any sailings from the US.  I hate when articles are published with misleading headlines!  
 

Some people who never bother to read the actual article are going to not test and will miss their cruise!!

In the context of this thread, I assume “pre-departure” meant departure FROM the ship.

I assume you are talking about departure on a ship.  Hank clearly used the proper term debarkation. Confusing terms maybe but I hate when people don’t read what others are thinking. 😂 

[evandbob]

It's possible that the 20% rate questioned by the OP is accurate, but there is no data to support it.  Cruisers might get a mild case of COVID 3 days after a sailing.  If someone self tests, it's generally not reported to health authorities.  So it's just as easily higher or lower than 20%, and with the cavalier attitude towards precautions we've witnessed on our recent sailings, I'd say it's higher!

 

[mnocket]

6 hours ago, 2wheelin said:

In the context of this thread, I assume “pre-departure” meant departure FROM the ship.

I assume you are talking about departure on a ship.  Hank clearly used the proper term debarkation. Confusing terms maybe but I hate when people don’t read what others are thinking. 😂 

Yeah I really mucked things up by not being precise in my wording.  By "departing" I meant leaving the ship at the end of the cruise.

[whogo]

18 hours ago, ldubs said:

Five of our group of 15 tested positive from our recent May cruise.

Ouch. I hope they are doing well. 

 

I followed two Cruise Critic blogs from HAL Alaska cruise/tours, both reported that people caught covid on the land portion of the trip and were not allowed to board the ship. Btimmer reported two families were affected. Also: "I learned today from our CD that 143 people did not make the ship due to Covid and that the rate of infections for the southbound is DRAMATICALLY higher than the northbound cruises." 142 is about 7% of Noordam's capacity and I assume that some of those 142 were covid negative traveling companions.

 

Alphen reported on June 30: "We are now on board the cruise train, turns out only 17 out of the original 33 in our group made it!!!"

 

Others have reported being angry at coughing fellow passengers towards the end of their cruises, but I always heard coughs on my pre-pandemic cruises.

[Aquahound]

I actually don’t think 20% is that unlikely. In some cases…by cases, I mean cruises…that very well could be true. My last cruise had 4000 passengers.  Wife and I got sick and according to FB posts, a lot got sick on that cruise. 800 total could be possible. 
 

Of course, there’s no way to know. My symptoms started when I got home, as I’m sure is the case with many. Out of courtesy, I emailed the cruise line but I’m sure I was in the minority doing that.  There won’t be a report anywhere of the true statistics. The only thing that could be known is how many tested positive on the ship, and I’m certain that’s only a small fraction of the true number. 

[lissie]

11 hours ago, DirtyDawg said:

In Ontario (Canada) we test wastewater and the scientists use that data to estimate Covid infection rates. Our current rate is 12.7% of the population has Covid. This is increasing due to the newest variant which is highly contagious. I can't comment on the methodology or the accuracy of the calculations as I'm not an Epidemiologist and I don't play one on the internet. But that's the number Public Health Ontario is publishing. So I suspect that theoretically cruise lines could measure their ships' positivity rate using a similar methodology .  But, of course, why would they? It serves no commercial purpose. I can't imagine a Royal advertising campaign touting a 5% positivity rate (or whatever it was) vs. Carnival's 10%, for example. Or "Rise to the Vacation" being replace with "No rise in our Covid Numbers". 

 

Until you test, it's all a guess. 

NZ  does extensive wastewater testing - its unbelievably accurate. In one case when we had zero covid in the community prior to Covid - they tracked one  family in a rural town!