Changes in Onboard Behavior & Procedures after Cruises restart sailing again...

[Toofarfromthesea]

14 hours ago, clo said:

Really? Why? Totally ignorant about that. I've already learned one new thing today. Heading to two?

 

It has to do with how we measure life expectancy and average age at death.  Actuarial science 101.

OT warning

When we casually talk about life expectancy we generally mean at birth, but then it changes every year of life.  At every age there is a mortality risk of death, mortality rate, before reaching the next age.  Life expectancy is based on a computation incorporating all of those mortality rates, from the age at which you are measuring it to the end of the mortality table (the table ends at an age where everyone is assumed to have died, frequently 120)

It is a little easier to think of it as expected age at death, because each year that you dodge death, your expected age at death goes up.  A 70 year old has a later expected age at death than a 19 year old because the 19 year old hasn't faced and dodged mortality for 51 years already like the 70 year old.  Assuming that underlying mortality rates stay constant, IF the 19 year old survives to 70 THEN his expected age at death would be the same as a 70 year old's because he now IS a 70 year old. 

But a certain number of 19 year olds won't make 70.  To oversimplify it a bit, the 19 year olds that make it to 70 will have the same average age at death as our hypothetical 70 year old, but the deaths between 19 and 69 reduce that average.  The life expectancy for a 19 year old may be (making these numbers up, since I don't have a mortality table handy, but it could be computed exactly) 60, while the life expectancy for a 70 year old might be 11.  Giving the 19 year old an expected age at death of 79 and the 70 year old an expected age at death of 81 (I'm using the word expected in the statistical sense of average).  The 2 years difference represents all of the death risk the 19 year old was subject to and avoided while getting to 70. It is like a rachet.  Each year you survive, you expected age at death rachets up, a bit.
 

And all of this depends on choosing an appropriate mortality table.  Constructing and choosing appropriate mortality tables is what actuaries do.  In getting my certification as an actuary I had to learn how to construct a mortality table.

And that is way more than you wanted to know, but let this be a lesson to you.  Always be careful about asking for an explanation when there is an actuary turned mat teacher around. LOL

 

Anyone whose read this far deserves an actuary joke.

Do you know the difference between a legitimate actuary and a Mafia actuary?  The legit actuary can tell you how many people will die.  The Mafia actuary can tell you their names.


 

[navybankerteacher]

3 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

Read about herd immunity.

 

But under your plan, those who cannot be immunized, cannot cruise.  As they cannot prove vaccination. 🙂

 

Herd immunity requires significant percentages.  In some cases (such as certain. school districts) voluntary compliance does not work.

 

 Depending upon how things pan out, it may be that people unable to prove immunity might be banned from cruising.  After all, cruising is not an essential activity. And, as a matter of fact, it is not my “plan” - rather a speculation.

[navybankerteacher]

51 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Still don't get it.  That was an actual enumeration, an actual measurement, not a sample.  Statistics are not involved, anymore than they are involved when you measure a piece of wood with a ruler.  And there is a cost for preparing for the worst, particularly when your model turns out to be this wrong (and if they prepared for their worst they would have been preparing for 465,000 hospital beds, the 185,000 was the BEST case under the model).  And the cost of preparing for such a bad estimate of the worst is that it creates a horrendous misallocation of limited resources.

An “actual measurement” of infections, mortality, recovery, etc, PART WAY through a pandemic- while perfectly correct - can only reflect the reality up to that point.

 

The thing  is still going on. 

[clo]

6 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

Do you know the difference between a legitimate actuary and a Mafia actuary?  The legit actuary can tell you how many people will die.  The Mafia actuary can tell you their names.

L. O. L. And I loved that explanation. Makes a ton of sense. Good job.

[SRF]

20 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

Herd immunity requires significant percentages.  In some cases (such as certain. school districts) voluntary compliance does not work.

 

 Depending upon how things pan out, it may be that people unable to prove immunity might be banned from cruising.  After all, cruising is not an essential activity. And, as a matter of fact, it is not my “plan” - rather a speculation.

 

You still don't get it.

 

If a vaccine is available, along with people having had it an gaining immunity, you will have significant percentages of immune people.

 

So non-vaccinated people would be covered under herd immunity.  The likelihood of a non-immune person coming into contact with another non-immune person, who is also infectious is very low.  

 

So no need to require vaccination.

 

Again, just like cruise lines do not require measles vaccine proof.  Even through measles is VERY infectious, and survives a very long time outside the body.  Because the likelihood of an infected person is low, and the likelihood of that person coming into contact with non-immune people is even lower.

 

And if the cruise line has protected the crew, by mandatory vaccination, a single or even 2 or 3 sick people, is not an issue, as most of the passengers are also immune (by vaccination or having had it).

 

AND, if an infectious person boards, and actual infects others, they may not even realize they are sick until after the cruise.

[navybankerteacher]

19 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

You still don't get it.

 

If a vaccine is available, along with people having had it an gaining immunity, you will have significant percentages of immune people.

 

So non-vaccinated people would be covered under herd immunity.  The likelihood of a non-immune person coming into contact with another non-immune person, who is also infectious is very low.  

 

So no need to require vaccination.

 

Again, just like cruise lines do not require measles vaccine proof.  Even through measles is VERY infectious, and survives a very long time outside the body.  Because the likelihood of an infected person is low, and the likelihood of that person coming into contact with non-immune people is even lower.

 

And if the cruise line has protected the crew, by mandatory vaccination, a single or even 2 or 3 sick people, is not an issue, as most of the passengers are also immune (by vaccination or having had it).

 

AND, if an infectious person boards, and actual infects others, they may not even realize they are sick until after the cruise.

You are clearly the one who does not get it.

 

Herd immunity only exists if a sufficient percentage of the population is immune.  If no effort is made to drive that percentage up to the effective level herd immunity will not exist.  

 

Human nature being what it is, the best way to get people to fail to take action is to let them know that “it’s OK, other people will take care of it”.  In the context of cruising (which is where we are) the only effective way to achieve herd immunity is to require proof of immunizatio prior to boarding.

[rkacruiser]

On 4/23/2020 at 11:47 PM, navybankerteacher said:

Of course I can’t count on good health one day and gone the next - so I need to allow for ongoing care  - which means that I cannot plan to spending the last penny, so I must assume the children will enjoy the leftovers.

 

A good reason to have a long term care policy if possible.  My Mother had one and I saw how successfully it stretched her dwindling assets.  I bought one as well with the same goal.  She wanted to help cover the cost of her care (as do I) while not eliminating, hopefully, what she was able to bequeath to my Brother and me.  That's my goal as well.  When my time comes to pass, I hope to leave enough assets behind to benefit my family and my Alma Mater.  If it were not for the education that I received from my Alma Mater and for the support of my family, my life could have been radically different, I believe.  

[Toofarfromthesea]

On 4/24/2020 at 11:39 AM, navybankerteacher said:

An “actual measurement” of infections, mortality, recovery, etc, PART WAY through a pandemic- while perfectly correct - can only reflect the reality up to that point.

 

The thing  is still going on. 

 

Yes, but completely irrelevant to the point that the models give garbage results that being used to make decisions about resource allocations.  Imagine the effort and anxiety when you are told you will need a minimum of 185,000 hospital beds within 30 days.  And how much of that was wasted when it turned out that you only actually needed 2,000.  And actually, the count of how many hospitalizations occurred is a far more definite number than things like infections, mortality, and recoveries.

Added:  certainly the number of hospitalizations during the subsequent 30 days will be different.  But no rational person would use that model to predict how many.

Edited April 25, 2020 by Toofarfromthesea

[2wheelin]

8 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

You are clearly the one who does not get it.

 

Herd immunity only exists if a sufficient percentage of the population is immune.  If no effort is made to drive that percentage up to the effective level herd immunity will not exist.  

 

Human nature being what it is, the best way to get people to fail to take action is to let them know that “it’s OK, other people will take care of it”.  In the context of cruising (which is where we are) the only effective way to achieve herd immunity is to require proof of immunizatio prior to boarding.

You really think that after going through all that we have, when a vaccine is available there will not be a sufficient percentage of the population lining up for the vaccine? This is in addition to the large number of people who may have immunity from infection.

This is different from measles or chicken pox or anything else since those have very few active cases and herd immunity comes only from vaccination.

[clo]

2 minutes ago, 2wheelin said:

You really think that after going through all that we have, when a vaccine is available there will not be a sufficient percentage of the population lining up for the vaccine? This is in addition to the large number of people who may have immunity from infection.

This is different from measles or chicken pox or anything else since those have very few active cases and herd immunity comes only from vaccination.

Plenty of people don't get the flu vaccine every year. I'd say if you don't care enough to protect your loved ones then you probably don't care enough about cruising. Oh wait, maybe people care more about cruising than protecting others.

[2wheelin]

1 minute ago, clo said:

Plenty of people don't get the flu vaccine every year. I'd say if you don't care enough to protect your loved ones then you probably don't care enough about cruising. Oh wait, maybe people care more about cruising than protecting others.

People aren’t as afraid of the flu. It doesn’t shut down the country. This virus has affected everyone in some way. Most in significant ways.

[clo]

9 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

You are clearly the one who does not get it.

 

Herd immunity only exists if a sufficient percentage of the population is immune.  If no effort is made to drive that percentage up to the effective level herd immunity will not exist.  

 

Human nature being what it is, the best way to get people to fail to take action is to let them know that “it’s OK, other people will take care of it”.  In the context of cruising (which is where we are) the only effective way to achieve herd immunity is to require proof of immunizatio prior to boarding.

I just saw this paragraph from Washington Post. Since there appears to be an impenetrable pay wall I'll just share it here. There was no elaboration:

"The World Health Organization on Saturday said there was not enough evidence that a person who has recovered from covid-19 is immune from a second infection."

 

[chipmaster]

1 hour ago, 2wheelin said:

You really think that after going through all that we have, when a vaccine is available there will not be a sufficient percentage of the population lining up for the vaccine? This is in addition to the large number of people who may have immunity from infection.

This is different from measles or chicken pox or anything else since those have very few active cases and herd immunity comes only from vaccination.

You see the movie Contagion?  

 

My prediction is yes there will be long line of people and arguments of who gets a vaccine first ( a high efficacy one!  Not on e like some clorax or some light stuck where sun don't shine fix ) 

 

Look at the impact on the economy and unemployment, I think people will be lined up!

[Roz]

I am old enough to remember when the Salk vaccine for polio became available.  People were more fearful of contracting polio than they were of the Russian dropping an atomic bomb on us.  A polio shot clinic was held in the gym of our local high school.  The line to get the shot spilled outside the school and wound around the bldg. twice.  Everyone took it very seriously, and we were so grateful to get vaccinated.

 

For those of you not familiar with polio, Google "iron lung".

[clo]

3 minutes ago, Roz said:

I am old enough to remember when the Salk vaccine for polio became available.  People were more fearful of contracting polio than they were of the Russian dropping an atomic bomb on us.  A polio shot clinic was held in the gym of our local high school.  The line to get the shot spilled outside the school and wound around the bldg. twice.  Everyone took it very seriously, and we were so grateful to get vaccinated.

 

For those of you not familiar with polio, Google "iron lung".

Do you share your age? I'm (almost) 73 and a boy in our neighborhood got it. Not on an iron lung but on crutches and braces.

[Roz]

67...I knew kids who had crutches and braces, and saw the iron lung ward at the children's hospital when I went to get my tonsil's out.  I work with 2 ladies a few yrs. older than me who have post polio syndrome.  

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Yes, but completely irrelevant to the point that the models give garbage results that being used to make decisions about resource allocations.  Imagine the effort and anxiety when you are told you will need a minimum of 185,000 hospital beds within 30 days.  And how much of that was wasted when it turned out that you only actually needed 2,000.  And actually, the count of how many hospitalizations occurred is a far more definite number than things like infections, mortality, and recoveries.

Added:  certainly the number of hospitalizations during the subsequent 30 days will be different.  But no rational person would use that model to predict how many.

Yes, the process was flawed — but the purpose is more important than each aspect of the process ;  and, when dealing with a problem not previously experienced the purpose should be kept in mind rather than obsessing about the the details of the process.

Edited April 26, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[ldubs]

15 minutes ago, Roz said:

The line to get the shot spilled outside the school and wound around the bldg. twice.  Everyone took it very seriously, and we were so grateful to get vaccinated.

 

 

I remember standing in line with my brother and mother.  It was in our small farm town's elementary school building.  That building was torn down later.  Bricks for a new house my folks had built came from that old building.   

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, 2wheelin said:

You really think that after going through all that we have, when a vaccine is available there will not be a sufficient percentage of the population lining up for the vaccine? This is in addition to the large number of people who may have immunity from infection.

This is different from measles or chicken pox or anything else since those have very few active cases and herd immunity comes only from vaccination.

I certainly believe that most thinking people will get the vaccine when available - but there always are those Luddites who mistrust authority and resist the new - and to encourage them by saying that they will be OK without getting the vaccine because of herd immunity is beyond stupid and irresponsible.  What we are talking about here is requirinfg immunization before permitting people to board a cruise ship.  There are posters here who maintain that such requirement is not necessary because of herd immunity.

 

There are questions about whether it is right to force people to get immunizations - no force is being suggested- just arguing that if someone wants to cruise (an unnecessary, voluntary activity) he has to get it,.  Like the measles in a couple of New York counties - no one is forced to get the shot - but if they elect not to, they cannot go to school.

 

Herd immunity is great - but it does depend upon maximum co-operation with responsible precautions.

Edited April 26, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[ontheweb]

10 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

I certainly believe that most thinking people will get the vaccine when available - but there always are those Luddites who mistrust authority and resist the new - and to encourage them by saying that they will be OK without getting the vaccine because of herd immunity is beyond stupid and irresponsible.  What we are talking about here is requirinfg immunization before permitting people to board a cruise ship.  There are posters here who maintain that such requirement is not necessary because of herd immunity.

 

There are questions about whether it is right to force people to get immunizations - no force is being suggested- just arguing that if someone wants to cruise (an unnecessary, voluntary activity) he has to get it,.  Like the measles in a couple of New York counties - no one is forced to get the shot - but if they elect not to, they cannot go to school.

 

Herd immunity is great - but it does depend upon maximum co-operation with responsible precautions.

In regards to measles in some NY counties---in response to this NY state no longer allows the "religious" exemption. (There is still a medical exemption.) This was of course challenged in court, and the state's position that it was a health issue won out..

 

I do know of someone who could have taken the medical exemption because of a compromised immunity system, but whose parents before the "religious" exemption was outlawed chose to have him get the shot as a lesser risk than being exposed to measles.

[AF-1]

My hope if for the scientists to find a vaccine for this virus; and then combine the vaccine with the annual flu shot.  One shot treats two things.  Not sure if this can or would be done;  but a boy can dream.  Have a nice Sunday.  

[cruisemom42]

2 minutes ago, AF-1 said:

My hope if for the scientists to find a vaccine for this virus; and then combine the vaccine with the annual flu shot.  One shot treats two things.  Not sure if this can or would be done;  but a boy can dream.  Have a nice Sunday.  

 

As someone who works in the pharma industry, this would perhaps not be impossible -- but it would be difficult. 

 

Each year the flu vaccine already contains protection from 3 flu strains. For each strain included, you have to manufacture enough of the material for each strain included (which in itself is a logistical headache), then combine them into one vaccine. Currently there are limitations that are mainly physical and practical to including more strains, which is why it isn't done.  No one wants to get a huge shot; for one thing, it would be more painful.

 

There are combination vaccines (like the measles/mumps/rubella vaccine), but they don't need to be administered annually, so production is less intense.

 

For a new combination vaccine -- such as combining flu with COVID-19 -- regulatory agencies would likely require not only testing of the efficacy of the COVID vaccine on its own, but also additional testing of the combination COVID/flu vaccine to ensure that there were not unanticipated cross-reactions, side effects, etc.

 

So in short, I'm not sure if this would be either possible or practical. Certainly not as an initial focus.

 

 

 

[SRF]

22 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

You are clearly the one who does not get it.

 

Herd immunity only exists if a sufficient percentage of the population is immune.  If no effort is made to drive that percentage up to the effective level herd immunity will not exist.  

 

Human nature being what it is, the best way to get people to fail to take action is to let them know that “it’s OK, other people will take care of it”.  In the context of cruising (which is where we are) the only effective way to achieve herd immunity is to require proof of immunizatio prior to boarding.

 

So you believe, if the cruise lines do not require the vaccination, then very few people will get it???

 

REALLY?????

 

You don't think that the vast majority of people will get the vaccine anyway?  Or get immunity from having had the disease already?

[AF-1]

cruisemom42;  excellent answer.   it could work.  But then; big pharma needs to re coup the money it costs to do trials and such.  So they most likely will have two separate shots.  Have a great Sunday

[2wheelin]

11 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

I certainly believe that most thinking people will get the vaccine when available - but there always are those Luddites who mistrust authority and resist the new - and to encourage them by saying that they will be OK without getting the vaccine because of herd immunity is beyond stupid and irresponsible.

No one here has encouraged anyone to not get the vaccine by saying they will be OK. People HAVE said that herd immunity is a proven fact which will HELP those who cannot get a vaccine—and even the few who object to it. 

 What we are talking about here is requirinfg immunization before permitting people to board a cruise ship.  There are posters here who maintain that such requirement is not necessary because of herd immunity.

Yes, when there is herd immunity, such a requirement is not necessary. If the cruise lines impose it in spite of that, they will need to also require people not reach the age of 60.

 

There are questions about whether it is right to force people to get immunizations - no force is being suggested- just arguing that if someone wants to cruise (an unnecessary, voluntary activity) he has to get it,.  

Obviously the cruise lines can impose whatever rules they wish but their bottom line and publicity will be determining factors.

Like the measles in a couple of New York counties - no one is forced to get the shot - but if they elect not to, they cannot go to school.

Maybe I am from a more progressive state but we are required by law to provide an education—even for those expelled from school there is alternative school provided. We require measles vaccine but grant exemptions—overwhelmingly medical.

 

Herd immunity is great  -   The point most of us are making! but it does depend upon maximum co-operation with responsible precautions.

See comments from others re polio! Maximum cooperation was the point of my original comment so I don’t know why you are arguing with me except you couldn’t resist the urge to use the words stupid and irresponsible again.