Half Capacity Sailing

[jean87510]

1 hour ago, ninjacat123 said:

Here in SC we have massage and facial stores opening back up, stating that they will be using enhanced cleaning, masks and gloves.  I just had my nails done (yay!!) and I was required to wear a mask, use hand sanitizer prior, sign a hold harmless and there was a plexiglass screen between me and the nail tech.

I need to move down south!!

[coevan]

44 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

If anything on board pricing would be lowered. You don't raise prices to increase sales.

 

 

Retail 101 

[MsTabbyKats]

55 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

If anything on board pricing would be lowered. You don't raise prices to increase sales.

If you're on a ship....you're dealing with a monopoly.  They can charge whatever they like.  And people wouldn't have any other options.

[lobster1313]

11 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

If you're on a ship....you're dealing with a monopoly.  They can charge whatever they like.  And people wouldn't have any other options.

Yes, but they can choose to spend less on board and more in port. The cruise lines will need the passengers to book future cruises and won't if they were over charged. It's about next year and the year after that with this year as a means to continue operations.

Edited May 25, 2020 by regoodwinjr

[BlerkOne]

55 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

So, yes, they can "break even" if they don't consider "paying the rent" or "paying taxes".  So, they would break even at a lower capacity rating, but would then have to pay the financing on the ship, and the part of corporate overhead attributed to the ship from taxes on the corporate headquarters, etc.

 

 

As I suspected, financing was not included. Obviously not a factor in older, paid for ships.

[Saint Greg]

8 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

Yes, but they can choose to spend less on board and more in port. The cruise lines will need the passengers to book future cruises and won't if they were over charged. It's about next year and the year after that with this year as a means to continue operations.

 

It's $5/day. Less than the price of a beer. I don't think people are going to stop drinking on board over that. Most of the people on board are blue cards who probably don't even know it was cheaper before the cruise. 

[BlerkOne]

9 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

Yes, but they can choose to spend less on board and more in port. The cruise lines will need the passengers to book future cruises and won't if they were over charged. It's about next year and the year after that with this year as a means to continue operations.

 

Many will have a ton of non-refundable OBC to spend or lose and it doesn't transfer to third party shore excursions or in port spending. To them it is monopoly money. 

 

[BlerkOne]

42 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Well, most bunker prices are about 60-67% of last year's price, so while low, not that low, but most of the cruise lines use long term bunker futures contracts, and with the period of shutdown coinciding with the drop in fuel price, their futures contracts may pass right over the downward dip (which is actually what the futures contracts are all about), plus they are not buying any fuel at this time.  And while the most marked drop in fuel prices is in VLSFO (the 0.5% sulfur fuel required since 1 Jan unless the ship uses a scrubber), as more and more ships need this fuel as the year goes on, I expect this to have a similar marked increase in price, (and crude is about 70% of last year), or go even higher as demand outstrips refining capacity.

 

Okay. But as they are not buying fuel now, they are not overpaying with older, higher prices of previous contracts.

[lobster1313]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Many will have a ton of non-refundable OBC to spend or lose and it doesn't transfer to third party shore excursions or in port spending. To them it is monopoly money. 

 

Yes, many will but not all. If our cruise goes in August we only have about $ 250 and most of that cam from my TA when I booked last summer.

[ninjacat123]

9 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

Yes, but they can choose to spend less on board and more in port. The cruise lines will need the passengers to book future cruises and won't if they were over charged. It's about next year and the year after that with this year as a means to continue operations.

Whenever I cruise, I try to bring medicine/supplies to cover most issues, because it always cost more onboard than at my local drug store.

[MsTabbyKats]

41 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

Yes, but they can choose to spend less on board and more in port. The cruise lines will need the passengers to book future cruises and won't if they were over charged. It's about next year and the year after that with this year as a means to continue operations.

And why do you think you'll find bargains in port?  In "the old days" they overcharged....and now they'll need to make up for unrealized revenue.

Face it....all businesses will charge more to make up for lost profits.  You can take it or leave it.

[lobster1313]

6 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

And why do you think you'll find bargains in port?  In "the old days" they overcharged....and now they'll need to make up for unrealized revenue.

Face it....all businesses will charge more to make up for lost profits.  You can take it or leave it.

Yes, they can but they won't be in business long. You can't raise prices and expect to win back consumers.  They're a lot of other businesses that are competing for that business and are willing to make less per sale in order to get that consumer to make a purchase.

Edited May 25, 2020 by regoodwinjr

[Cowboys4ever]

No one knows what will happen by the end of July.  I believe they will have a rapid test fully operating by that time and affordable.  To many smart people are working on this at the moment to think there will not be advancements.  So my best guess is that everyone will be tested before boarding the ship.  I think they will put up plexiglass shields around the card tables and slot machines.  I think guest will be "asked" to wear a mask when walking around inside the ship, near the shops for example and on elevators.  I also think the buffet will change, to either they serve you or maybe some type of table service option.  Nothing in life is 100% risk free, not even staying home as most accidents happen in the home.  The cruise line will put things in place to make it as safe as they can without killing the vibe of a cruise.  After that, it becomes the guest choice on whether to cruise or not.  I will gladly chose to get on the ship, I have 2 booked already, one this December and I can't wait.  

 

I also think people have the picture of what happened at the beginning of all this with all the cruise ships stranded.  I don't think that will happen again.  We are much better prepared now and the port cities will be ready for any future issues.  

 

I do think they will be very cautious when they start again.  They will probably reduce passengers, even at a loss so they can build up confidence in the public again.  They also need to work out the kinks in their protocols, which would be much easier to do at half capacity.  They will also be required to set aside 100-200 rooms as quarantine rooms, so that will also lower the capacity, i am guessing here but it would make sense to do that along with covid testing on board capabilities and advanced medical staffing and equipment like ventilators.  

 

Here is by biggest guess,  take advantage of the deals we will see over the next 12-18 months as the cruise industry rebuilds the trust and confidence of the public. After that, i full expect the prices of cruises to get much higher to pay for all these changes and off set the losses caused by all the changes and sailings over the next 12 months.  

[bury me at sea]

1 hour ago, MsTabbyKats said:

If you're on a ship....you're dealing with a monopoly.  They can charge whatever they like.  And people wouldn't have any other options.

 

Sure, if what you need is toothpaste or sunscreen.

 

Spa treatments, bar drinks, t- shirts, jewelry, etc. have the obvious option - don't buy it.

[chengkp75]

54 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

As I suspected, financing was not included. Obviously not a factor in older, paid for ships.

You'd be surprised how often older ships are refinanced to cover the capital outlay for newer ships.

[chengkp75]

50 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Okay. But as they are not buying fuel now, they are not overpaying with older, higher prices of previous contracts.

They are "futures" contracts, meaning they will pay a guaranteed price at some time in the future, so contracts signed even 3-4 months ago, may still be binding when the ships start sailing and buying fuel again.

[bury me at sea]

11 minutes ago, Cowboys4ever said:

 

They will also be required to set aside 100-200 rooms as quarantine rooms, so that will also lower the capacity, . . .

 

In the main I don't disagree with your post.

 

I question the quoted portion.  Reduced passengers would mean reduced crew so quarantined crew should have alternate rooming options.

 

Quarantined passengers, with their cabin mates, would have no need to move to different cabins.  I'm just not following your logic here.

[Cowboys4ever]

25 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

And why do you think you'll find bargains in port?  In "the old days" they overcharged....and now they'll need to make up for unrealized revenue.

Face it....all businesses will charge more to make up for lost profits.  You can take it or leave it.

 

That's not how business works.  Especially during a time like this or trying to rebound from something like this. It is a marathon, not a sprint.  They can't and won't increase prices to make up for lost revenue, if they do that, they will lose all revenue and go out of business.   The already have a hefty mark up on all things sold on the ship,  they can lower the prices and still make money per sale and increase their revenue.  Making their margin higher will only reduce the number of sales and in turn, reduce revenue.  This will happen but over time, say over the next 18 months, they will have a gradual increase in prices.. a beer that cost 4.75 today will cost 5.25 by the end of 2022 for example but during the next 18 months, they will see increasing  revenue as they gradually increased the price but will not see a drop in sales as it becomes the new norm.  Going from 4.75 today to 5.25 tomorrow would not have the same affect. 

[Cowboys4ever]

3 minutes ago, bury me at sea said:

 

In the main I don't disagree with your post.

 

I question the quoted portion.  Reduced passengers would mean reduced crew so quarantined crew should have alternate rooming options.

 

Quarantined passengers, with their cabin mates, would have no need to move to different cabins.  I'm just not following your logic here.

 

I think they will have to be moved.  Their rooms still need to be cleaned, food served, etc. You can't have the same room steward doing that and then going into other rooms with guest.  So I envision a section of rooms set aside to move all covid patients to, so the same crew and medical teams can serve them without interactions with other guests.   I think this will be the new norm for a long time on ships now.  

[BlerkOne]

36 minutes ago, regoodwinjr said:

Yes, they can but they won't be in business long. You can't raise prices and expect to win back consumers.  They're a lot of other businesses that are competing for that business and are willing to make less per sale in order to get that consumer to make a purchase.

 

Of course they will. You raise prices and then have sales on slow moving crap. Consumers can be very gullible.

[BlerkOne]

9 minutes ago, Cowboys4ever said:

 

That's not how business works.  Especially during a time like this or trying to rebound from something like this. It is a marathon, not a sprint.  They can't and won't increase prices to make up for lost revenue, if they do that, they will lose all revenue and go out of business.   The already have a hefty mark up on all things sold on the ship,  they can lower the prices and still make money per sale and increase their revenue.  Making their margin higher will only reduce the number of sales and in turn, reduce revenue.  This will happen but over time, say over the next 18 months, they will have a gradual increase in prices.. a beer that cost 4.75 today will cost 5.25 by the end of 2022 for example but during the next 18 months, they will see increasing  revenue as they gradually increased the price but will not see a drop in sales as it becomes the new norm.  Going from 4.75 today to 5.25 tomorrow would not have the same affect. 

 

They won't need gradual increases - over time cruising will grow and volume will increase.

[ninjacat123]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

 

Of course they will. You raise prices and then have sales on slow moving crap. Consumers can be very gullible.

Like the end of the cruise $10 t shirt sale.  That's the time to buy a t shirt if you want one.

[BlerkOne]

22 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

You'd be surprised how often older ships are refinanced to cover the capital outlay for newer ships.

 

The older ships are for sale and have been (allegedly). In the old days, Carnival paid cash. If money was borrowed against, I can't see too much being raised and besides, most of Carnival Corp ships have been pledged as collateral against the loans and bonds they recently acquired.

[bury me at sea]

5 minutes ago, Cowboys4ever said:

 

I think they will have to be moved.  Their rooms still need to be cleaned, food served, etc. You can't have the same room steward doing that and then going into other rooms with guest.  So I envision a section of rooms set aside to move all covid patients to, so the same crew and medical teams can serve them without interactions with other guests.   I think this will be the new norm for a long time on ships now.  

 

You could be right.  The issue I see here is that the passengers needing to be quarantined mid-cruise should have been asymptomatic at the beginning of the cruise.

 

There will be many crew members and fellow passengers who have already come into contact with newly confirmed sick passengers.  It's hard to see how moving them makes any difference.

 

Deep cleaning surely will be required for all cabins on each embarkation day.

[HxFx]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Though I once got a facial because everyone said they were wonderful. I guess I'm wierd, a loner. I was uncomfortable having a woman rubbing on me. Never tried again, but I'm wierd. 

I guess I'm weird too! I love a body massage but cannot stand having my face massaged. I was really surprised how unpleasant it was to me.

 

WRT to spa services, I can get nice massages here at home so focus on getting out in the sun and water. I wouldn't mind a sauna/steam though. Are they really expensive to use?