VACCINE NEWS-Keep your fingers crossed...

[BP99]

46 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

The desired endpoint of course in a perfect world is 100% protection from infection.  But there is some serious talk about a benchmark of 50% infection protection to get approval.  I included a link below with a clinical endpoint discussion of vaccine efficacy and approval.  It is possible IMO that future SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates will be correlated with immune responses (initially a secondary endpoint in the first large trials) and if that is a strong correlation to protection then the trials would be much easier to run and evaluate.  All of the current speed and high risk is worth it but skipping the usual steps might come back to bite us in some cases.

 

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-approval/

Hi,

I agree with your final comment. The two major front runners (who get the most

press- Moderna, Oxford/AZ) are using vaccine methods that have NEVER been previously approved by the FDA. Their initial results are very promising and

I hope it works.

 

[Ride-The-Waves]

Reality:

 

- In the US less than 50 percent of adults get a flu vaccine

- Recent polls indicate that only 70 percent would accept a COVID-19 vaccine

 

This is not panacea for cruising.  People cannot be forced to take a vaccine nor to certify if they have or have not.   A "vaccine" does nothing to protect against people who are asymptomatic carriers.  Researchers already know that COVID-19 mutates and if it does so on a seasonal annual being vaccinated does little to nothing to make cruising safe(r).  And you still have the issue of port visits where ships with 4,000-plus people going ashore is unacceptable to local authorities.

 

Cruising will/has changed because of COVID-19.  We have to accept this new reality.  Social distancing, smaller compliments of "guests," alerted venues for dining and entertainment, etc.  This all indicates higher prices and the redesign of ships to accommodate the new realities.

[Fouremco]

3 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 People cannot be forced to take a vaccine nor to certify if they have or have not.

That's not accurate, there are many jurisdictions where vaccinations are mandatory. With respect to cruising, no line can force you to take a vaccine or certify that you have, but they can refuse you boarding if they choose to make that their policy.

[zanderblue]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

  People cannot be forced to take a vaccine nor to certify if they have or have not.   

 

Pretty much what @Fouremco said. No vaccination certificate, then you ain’t coming aboard. 

[york survey]

53 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

That's not accurate, there are many jurisdictions where vaccinations are mandatory. With respect to cruising, no line can force you to take a vaccine or certify that you have, but they can refuse you boarding if they choose to make that their policy.

And yellow fever is a prime example.  To travel from an affected area to a tropical fever free area you have to prove vaccine with an international certificate.  ie travel from Brazil to Singapore without a certificate and you will not get in!!

it’s not a long way from this to requiring a certificate to join a ship

 

not saying it’s right!!

[yorky]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Reality:

 

- In the US less than 50 percent of adults get a flu vaccine

- Recent polls indicate that only 70 percent would accept a COVID-19 vaccine

 

This is not panacea for cruising.  People cannot be forced to take a vaccine nor to certify if they have or have not.   A "vaccine" does nothing to protect against people who are asymptomatic carriers.  Researchers already know that COVID-19 mutates and if it does so on a seasonal annual being vaccinated does little to nothing to make cruising safe(r).  And you still have the issue of port visits where ships with 4,000-plus people going ashore is unacceptable to local authorities.

 

Cruising will/has changed because of COVID-19.  We have to accept this new reality.  Social distancing, smaller compliments of "guests," alerted venues for dining and entertainment, etc.  This all indicates higher prices and the redesign of ships to accommodate the new realities.

Look you obviously have some very fixed views on cruising but they are only opinion, you have no more of an idea where cruising will be in two years than anyone else.

[d9704011]

59 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

That's not accurate, there are many jurisdictions where vaccinations are mandatory. With respect to cruising, no line can force you to take a vaccine or certify that you have, but they can refuse you boarding if they choose to make that their policy.

From a practical perspective, I don’t think cruise lines will adopt such a policy.  Too many barriers, exceptions and efficacy questions.

[BP99]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Reality:

 

- In the US less than 50 percent of adults get a flu vaccine

- Recent polls indicate that only 70 percent would accept a COVID-19 vaccine

 

This is not panacea for cruising.  People cannot be forced to take a vaccine nor to certify if they have or have not.   A "vaccine" does nothing to protect against people who are asymptomatic carriers.  Researchers already know that COVID-19 mutates and if it does so on a seasonal annual being vaccinated does little to nothing to make cruising safe(r).  And you still have the issue of port visits where ships with 4,000-plus people going ashore is unacceptable to local authorities.

 

Cruising will/has changed because of COVID-19.  We have to accept this new reality.  Social distancing, smaller compliments of "guests," alerted venues for dining and entertainment, etc.  This all indicates higher prices and the redesign of ships to accommodate the new realities.

Hi,

It is not known what a covid-19 vaccine will do to asymptomatic carriers.

This has not been tested (or I haven't seen any data reported). 

However, a covid-19 vaccine (if it works) will prevent the people

that are susceptible from a chance of dying. Many people are NOT

worried about cold symptoms but do not know what the covid-19 may

do to them. Many cruisers are elderly (especially on some lines!) and

would GREATLY benefit from a vaccine. Older people may have

a week immune response.They do not know WHY?? some are

asymptomatic but they have some ideas (decrease receptor

for the virus, lower cytokine storm response etc?). Many children 

may be asymptomatic. Some people who are asymptomatic when

tested do get mild symptoms later. Some children do die from covid-19

(although this is rare).

Also, all viruses mutate (especially RNA ones due to errors in replication

- no proofreading) including covid-19.  However, MANY human vaccines

are against RNA viruses. Most child vaccines are also against RNA

viruses. There are few vaccine-escape mutants. Also changing the strain 

is not difficult if they have a tested/safe/FDA approved vaccine platform.

For more info google: COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine 

 

 

 

[TeeRick]

It is pretty much a given that a year ago any preventative vaccine candidate using a new technology never before used in people would have taken years of safety and efficacy studies to get widespread approval.  RNA-based vaccine candidates like the lead candidates for COVID-19 would be in that category.  They are perhaps promising but no track record- particularly for safety.  The only vaccine approaches that are new technologies that have moved forward quickly have been therapeutic vaccines mostly used for compassionate use and tested in terminal patients like stage-4 cancer.  So a lot being done now for a COVID vaccine is truly unprecedented and high risk for sure.

[4774Papa]

2 hours ago, Fouremco said:

That's not accurate, there are many jurisdictions where vaccinations are mandatory. With respect to cruising, no line can force you to take a vaccine or certify that you have, but they can refuse you boarding if they choose to make that their policy.

Agree,  It could be required, at a minimum for international (or any type) travel.   When I worked for the US Navy over 20 years ago, a colleague of my was offered a job in Naples, Italy.  He and his wife were opposed to vaccines.   However, to accept the job, he had to have his entire family and self take the vaccines.  In the end, he wanted the job more than sticking with his no vaccine plan.  They did the vaccines.

[yorky]

Personally I still don’t believe having the vaccine shot will ever be mandatory for any form of travel including cruising, but that’s just my opinion. 

[cangelmd]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

It is pretty much a given that a year ago any preventative vaccine candidate using a new technology never before used in people would have taken years of safety and efficacy studies to get widespread approval.  RNA-based vaccine candidates like the lead candidates for COVID-19 would be in that category.  They are perhaps promising but no track record- particularly for safety.  The only vaccine approaches that are new technologies that have moved forward quickly have been therapeutic vaccines mostly used for compassionate use and tested in terminal patients like stage-4 cancer.  So a lot being done now for a COVID vaccine is truly unprecedented and high risk for sure.

Thanks for sharing that link yesterday. It makes me feel smart to know I’m asking the same questions that are being asked by people who know way more about this subject than I know, LOL!

The logistics boggle the mind - whether you are symptom tracking or testing. Hopefully Brazil has some good public health infrastructure to piggyback off of.

 

what I worry about with the efficacy of the vaccine is what will society expect and need to allow us to go back to close to normal. We never worried about flu, and only a subset of people got the vaccine, and not a super vaccine at that. Covid is definitely worse than flu, but we don’t know even now how much worse. We also don’t know if naturally acquired immunity especially in kids, will allow them to build immunity that lasts into adulthood and spares them the worst consequences.

 

We are starting to see younger patients - not children At my hospital, people in 30-40, they are less sick and we are learning better how to treat and prevent complications. No miracle improvements, but better than April

 

 

[Covepointcruiser]

I will certainly be one of the first to volunteer for the vaccine.   The slight chance of a negative reaction to a vaccine never bothered me.   Usually get a minor reaction to the flu vaccine but it’s nothing compared to the very bad case of flu I had before the vaccines were available.   I was in my early twenties and had a fever of 104 for five days and I certainly don’t want a repeat of that illness.   Wouldn’t mind at all if vaccinations were required and it would make me feel safer.

[phoenix_dream]

4 hours ago, yorky said:

Personally I still don’t believe having the vaccine shot will ever be mandatory for any form of travel including cruising, but that’s just my opinion. 

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, and right now none of us can know for sure.  My opinion differs.  I absolutely think the cruise lines will require the vaccine, at least initially, if it has proven to be reasonably trustworthy.  All one needs to do is look at what happened to ships that had Covid-19 passengers onboard.  The results, publicity-wise, were beyond catastrophic.  They absolutely, positively cannot afford any more incidents like that or the cruise industry will be crushed forever (or at least in our lifetimes).   For that reason I believe they will require the vaccine and/or proof of immunity (if by then it can be proven).  

 

Now can they afford to wait for the vaccine before starting to sail?  I seriously doubt it.  They are going to need to accept a certain level of risk and hope another catastrophe doesn't happen.  But once a valid vaccine is available I do believe they will require it.  They certainly can do so legally.  Many countries require certain vaccines in order to enter their borders.  I see no reason cruise ships cannot do the same.  For at least some period of time they will need to sail at less than full capacity anyway, so the fact that many won't be vaccinated early on probably won't hurt them too much.

 

None of us knows for sure, but this would be my best guess.

[cangelmd]

2 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, and right now none of us can know for sure.  My opinion differs.  I absolutely think the cruise lines will require the vaccine, at least initially, if it has proven to be reasonably trustworthy.  All one needs to do is look at what happened to ships that had Covid-19 passengers onboard.  The results, publicity-wise, were beyond catastrophic.  They absolutely, positively cannot afford any more incidents like that or the cruise industry will be crushed forever (or at least in our lifetimes).   For that reason I believe they will require the vaccine and/or proof of immunity (if by then it can be proven).  

 

Now can they afford to wait for the vaccine before starting to sail?  I seriously doubt it.  They are going to need to accept a certain level of risk and hope another catastrophe doesn't happen.  But once a valid vaccine is available I do believe they will require it.  They certainly can do so legally.  Many countries require certain vaccines in order to enter their borders.  I see no reason cruise ships cannot do the same.  For at least some period of time they will need to sail at less than full capacity anyway, so the fact that many won't be vaccinated early on probably won't hurt them too much.

 

None of us knows for sure, but this would be my best guess.

This^

[TeeRick]

15 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, and right now none of us can know for sure.  My opinion differs.  I absolutely think the cruise lines will require the vaccine, at least initially, if it has proven to be reasonably trustworthy.  All one needs to do is look at what happened to ships that had Covid-19 passengers onboard.  The results, publicity-wise, were beyond catastrophic.  They absolutely, positively cannot afford any more incidents like that or the cruise industry will be crushed forever (or at least in our lifetimes).   For that reason I believe they will require the vaccine and/or proof of immunity (if by then it can be proven).  

 

Now can they afford to wait for the vaccine before starting to sail?  I seriously doubt it.  They are going to need to accept a certain level of risk and hope another catastrophe doesn't happen.  But once a valid vaccine is available I do believe they will require it.  They certainly can do so legally.  Many countries require certain vaccines in order to enter their borders.  I see no reason cruise ships cannot do the same.  For at least some period of time they will need to sail at less than full capacity anyway, so the fact that many won't be vaccinated early on probably won't hurt them too much.

 

None of us knows for sure, but this would be my best guess.

There is a very good chance that the vaccine will be required for cruise travel by the cruise lines.  At least for some period of time.  The issue is causing some confusion I think.  There is a difference between a government ordering that a vaccine be mandatory vs a private industry saying it is a requirement to partake in their product.  The first is a law.  The second is a choice.  There are government mandates in the USA for vaccines in place for childhood vaccines in order for children to attend public schools.  But even that is ignored by some of the population.  Anti-vax parents choose to home school so that is even a choice.  In the COVID world let's see how this plays out.  Governments have mandated everything in the past 4 months much more than I can recall in my entire life.  But the exceptions seem to be random (or political) and not science based.

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

There is a very good chance that the vaccine will be required for cruise travel by the cruise lines.  At least for some period of time.  The issue is causing some confusion I think.  There is a difference between a government ordering that a vaccine be mandatory vs a private industry saying it is a requirement to partake in their product.  The first is a law.  The second is a choice.  There are government mandates in the USA for vaccines in place for childhood vaccines in order for children to attend public schools.  But even that is ignored by some of the population.  Anti-vax parents choose to home school so that is even a choice.  In the COVID world let's see how this plays out.  Governments have mandated everything in the past 4 months much more than I can recall in my entire life.  But the exceptions seem to be random (or political) and not science based.

Definitely.

And even if the cruise line does not mandate it, there very well may be governments of the ports you will be visiting that will mandate it. A good example of this is proof of Yellow Fever vaccination that is sometimes required by governments before you can enter the country.

[Roger88]

The vaccine certificate will not be obligatory. It will violate your right to privacy. Moreover it will make the whole thing much harder. Both for the people and the cruise company. The only thing I might see happening is checking whether there was a vaccination term in the place from where you are traveling but this is like maximum 

[K.T.B.]

23 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Reality:

 

- In the US less than 50 percent of adults get a flu vaccine

- Recent polls indicate that only 70 percent would accept a COVID-19 vaccine

 

This is not panacea for cruising.  People cannot be forced to take a vaccine nor to certify if they have or have not.   A "vaccine" does nothing to protect against people who are asymptomatic carriers.  Researchers already know that COVID-19 mutates and if it does so on a seasonal annual being vaccinated does little to nothing to make cruising safe(r).  And you still have the issue of port visits where ships with 4,000-plus people going ashore is unacceptable to local authorities.

 

Cruising will/has changed because of COVID-19.  We have to accept this new reality.  Social distancing, smaller compliments of "guests," alerted venues for dining and entertainment, etc.  This all indicates higher prices and the redesign of ships to accommodate the new realities.

 

Yep, it's mutating, a lot like SARS did.  The assumption is that the mutation could lessen the virus's ability to replicate (LINK).  Which is a good thing.

 

And I'm one of those who does not get a flu shot, because it makes me violently ill.  I will, however, get a COVID shot.

[TeeRick]

16 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

The vaccine certificate will not be obligatory. It will violate your right to privacy. Moreover it will make the whole thing much harder. Both for the people and the cruise company. The only thing I might see happening is checking whether there was a vaccination term in the place from where you are traveling but this is like maximum 

Roger you seem to be very definite.  But how can you be so sure??

[markeb]

16 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

The vaccine certificate will not be obligatory. It will violate your right to privacy. Moreover it will make the whole thing much harder. Both for the people and the cruise company. The only thing I might see happening is checking whether there was a vaccination term in the place from where you are traveling but this is like maximum 

 

No. A cruise line is not a "covered entity" under HIPAA, and they wouldn't actually be providing information, only verifying that you provided documentation. Cruising isn't mandatory, so you will have a choice of providing documentation, or not cruising. Right to privacy isn't going to apply. 

 

I really don't know where you come up with these things. 

[cangelmd]

1 hour ago, Roger88 said:

The vaccine certificate will not be obligatory. It will violate your right to privacy. Moreover it will make the whole thing much harder. Both for the people and the cruise company. The only thing I might see happening is checking whether there was a vaccination term in the place from where you are traveling but this is like maximum 

How is requiring proof of vaccine substantively different than an MD note to cruise? I understand that you are injecting something in to your body, but if the M.d note business had continued, I’m sure it would have eventually been “well controlled” chronic conditions, which would involve meds an individual might rather not take.

Private businesses can require any number of things, you might sue and you might lose.

 

today  CMS requires hospitals to show that their employees, volunteers and contractors are immunized for a bunch of illnesses including flu, hepatitis B and measles. There are very few exceptions.

[phoenix_dream]

3 hours ago, Roger88 said:

The vaccine certificate will not be obligatory. It will violate your right to privacy. Moreover it will make the whole thing much harder. Both for the people and the cruise company. The only thing I might see happening is checking whether there was a vaccination term in the place from where you are traveling but this is like maximum 

It doesn't violate anything.  Cruise lines are private, not public enterprises.  You can choose whether you want to provide that proof to them, or don't cruise.  You have a choice.    If you feel it violates your privacy, you can opt out.  Yes, it will be harder.  But consider how hard it is for them if/when someone onboard comes down with the virus.  If I had to choose a level of difficulty I would choose the vaccine.  All people would need to do is bring some kind of doctor's or pharmacy's note indicating they received the vaccine.  Yes, it would require a physical check-in most likely, but other than the revolutionized ships that is happening now anyway.   You may be right that it ends up not being required - no one really knows at this point - but not likely for the reasons you mention.

[hvbaskey]

3 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Definitely.

And even if the cruise line does not mandate it, there very well may be governments of the ports you will be visiting that will mandate it. A good example of this is proof of Yellow Fever vaccination that is sometimes required by governments before you can enter the country.

 

This  💫

[lastchamp64]

On 6/5/2020 at 3:17 PM, markeb said:

 

Did you read any of this thread? It's all about expediting the testing, early production, production and distribution essentially at cost, and yes, the Gates Foundation is partnering on the production. All are mentioned in the thread and the posted links.

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'm going to be honest here, just that right there mentioning Gates has me worried. I'll leave it at that. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by lastchamp64