Record infection numbers in Florida

[soloadventurer]

Tuesday Florida reported 2,783 new cases

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53074389?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ee9b7ad0b6cac0667aeb620%26Three US states see record infection numbers%262020-06-17T07%3A59%3A07.960Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:720d5fb6-aabe-41a5-98e6-bd91d92127e4&pinned_post_asset_id=5ee9b7ad0b6cac0667aeb620&pinned_post_type=share

[A&L_Ont]

And today you will get a litany of reasons to why it is OK, or the end of the world. 
 

Maybe higher case counts in Florida (7-10% of pop) will extend the delayed departure of cruises from Florida. Thankfully it appears as there as less hospitalizations with this upswing, at least as of now.
 

IMO the cruises lines want to start with a “healthier” population on board, to reduce their risk of becoming a bad press story. Perhaps it played a role in NCL extending cancellations, on top of CDC approvals. Not to mention they are still repatriating crew on ships. 🤷‍♂️

Edited June 17, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Milwaukee Eight]

@A&L_Ont

 

You are correct. Increased testing, increased positives. Here is what that article said......

 

“On Tuesday Florida reported 2,783 new cases, Texas 2,622 and Arizona 2,392.

 

Testing has been increased in all three southern US states,”

 
Florida maintains a 3-5% positive test rate. 
 

M8

[Lionesss]

I have finally resigned myself to the fact that I will be having a staycation in August, instead of sailing on the Harmony.

 

But, it is what it is.

 

Guess I will look at  August 2021.

 

Before it used to be Hurricanes  I would watch for on the weather channel, now it is Covid updates.

 

Stay healthy.

[shutterbug63]

This is why we rescheduled our cruise for next May.  Hard to tell what's going to happen for the rest of this year.

[Jimbo]

I sent an email to the CDC just for giggles and laughs to see what their response would be. Took about a week for them to reply but here was my question and their reply?  

 

My question :Could you please give approximate date the No sail order will be lifted for cruise ships carrying more then 500 passengers?

 

Their answer:

 

Dear James 

 

Thank you for your inquiry. The No Sail Order was extended on April 15, 2020. The extended Order is in effect until one of the following occurs:

•       The Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declares that COVID-19 no longer constitutes a public health emergency, or

•       The CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations, or

•       100 day s have passed from April 15, the date the extended order was published in the Federal Register and went into effect. 100 days from April 15 is July 24.

 

CDC’s current focus is helping crew members safely return home to their families and ensuring cruise lines are providing a safe environment for crew members to work and to disembark. We are working with cruise lines to ensure they are implementing the safeguards outlined in their plans through the No Sail Order suspension of normal operations through July 24, 2020. We will continue to update our recommendations as the situation evolves.

 

Best Regards,

 

Maritime Unit

Global Migration Task Force

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Jimbo

[ECCruise]

4 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I sent an email to the CDC just for giggles and laughs to see what their response would be. Took about a week for them to reply but here was my question and their reply?  

 

My question :Could you please give approximate date the No sail order will be lifted for cruise ships carrying more then 500 passengers?

 

Their answer:

 

Dear James 

 

Thank you for your inquiry. The No Sail Order was extended on April 15, 2020. The extended Order is in effect until one of the following occurs:

•       The Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declares that COVID-19 no longer constitutes a public health emergency, or

•       The CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations, or

•       100 day s have passed from April 15, the date the extended order was published in the Federal Register and went into effect. 100 days from April 15 is July 24.

 

CDC’s current focus is helping crew members safely return home to their families and ensuring cruise lines are providing a safe environment for crew members to work and to disembark. We are working with cruise lines to ensure they are implementing the safeguards outlined in their plans through the No Sail Order suspension of normal operations through July 24, 2020. We will continue to update our recommendations as the situation evolves.

 

Best Regards,

 

Maritime Unit

Global Migration Task Force

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

 

That is their official posture and is virtually word for word on their website.

They are not going to say anything different (or speculate) until they make the decision whether or not to extend.

[Keksie]

2 hours ago, soloadventurer said:

Tuesday Florida reported 2,783 new cases

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53074389?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5ee9b7ad0b6cac0667aeb620%26Three US states see record infection numbers%262020-06-17T07%3A59%3A07.960Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:720d5fb6-aabe-41a5-98e6-bd91d92127e4&pinned_post_asset_id=5ee9b7ad0b6cac0667aeb620&pinned_post_type=share

Geez it would be nice if they would have actually reported on what the Governor said.  The state of Florida is making it a priority to test high risk populations.  Long term care facilities, farm workers and jails.  The result of the increased testing is increased positive numbers.  The Governor did not brush off the numbers he explained them.

 

[Jimbo]

1 minute ago, ECCruise said:

That is their official posture and is virtually word for word on their website.

They are not going to say anything different (or speculate) until they make the decision whether or not to extend.

 

Yes , I pretty much thought I would just get a generic answer from them.

[Joseph2017China]

Numbers don't always tell a story.  If you test 100 and 5% positive, you get 5 people.  Now test 1.5 million and your number will go up if it still remains at 5%.  This argument will go on for months to come.  At the end of the day, it is your choice to either go or not to go.  It is a choice.  I'm going in September.  I have a friend going in August. It is my choice.....not some random news reporter crying the world is ending. 

[A&L_Ont]

14 minutes ago, Joseph2017China said:

Numbers don't always tell a story.  If you test 100 and 5% positive, you get 5 people.  Now test 1.5 million and your number will go up if it still remains at 5%.  This argument will go on for months to come.  At the end of the day, it is your choice to either go or not to go.  It is a choice.  I'm going in September.  I have a friend going in August. It is my choice.....not some random news reporter crying the world is ending. 

Only one small glitch with this plan... the ships have to be going. 😉

[bigrednole]

Covid-19 has changed the way we need to view outbreaks. There needs to be worldwide standardized methods to count and what will be used. States, counties, cities can count them in all different ways. The true method to count this at this point is the number of hospitalizations of more than 24-hours. We already know that a very large majority have no symptoms. That is great for them and that should be the baseline. Those that are affected worse are the ones that need to lock in place and avoid society. It is like having 1 person with a peanut allergy and they can't have peanuts at a sporting event. No, the person with a peanut allergy can't go. Right now we are punishing the masses for the few.

[PhillyFan33579]

44 minutes ago, Joseph2017China said:

Numbers don't always tell a story.  If you test 100 and 5% positive, you get 5 people.  Now test 1.5 million and your number will go up if it still remains at 5%.  This argument will go on for months to come.  At the end of the day, it is your choice to either go or not to go.  It is a choice.  I'm going in September.  I have a friend going in August. It is my choice.....not some random news reporter crying the world is ending. 

Where are you going in September? I know it won’t be on a cruise from a US port due to the CDC. NCL wouldn’t have cancelled cruises thru September if they thought/knew the CDC would allow cruises prior to October. 

[sandebeach]

Kids enjoying Paddleboard Summer Camp on Ft. Lauderdale Beach. Things are actually ok in Broward County, despite the media hype. 

[atgood]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Florida maintains a 3-5% positive test rate. 

Any idea how many of the 3-5% get hospitalized?  
 

Two of my out of state relatives had Covid-19 one month ago and both recovered at home for two weeks.  They told me it was like a bad cold, and the only difference was their heightened concerns of being contagious. 

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, A&L_Ont said:

Only one small glitch with this plan... the ships have to be going. 😉

Yeah, and that is questionable.

[Canadianmama3]

Since this is a cruising forum, thinking about this is terms of cruising.  People should be concerned about the number of cases in the US even if it’s because of increased testing.  To go on a cruise you need to be able to stop at other countries. I’m thinking other countries will not want to have cruises with US passengers stopping at their ports, if the US has a high number of active cases.  Regardless of the reason behind the numbers.  
 

That’s why Canada has closed their ports and wants to keep the borders closed.  And the majority of Canadians support this.  I’m guessing many other countries, especially those with weaker health systems won’t want to take a chance of their citizens catching the virus from tourists.  
 

So regardless of why positive tests are going up, or how many are actually ending up in hospital.  It’s the perception of other counties that really matter for cruising.  Or else you could be stuck on a cruise to nowhere. 

[Canadianmama3]

5 minutes ago, atgood said:

Any idea how many of the 3-5% get hospitalized?  
 

Two of my out of state relatives had Covid-19 one month ago and both recovered at home for two weeks.  They told me it was like a bad cold, and the only difference was their heightened concerns of being contagious. 

yes and a coworkers wife had what was called a “mild case”.  She’s always been healthy and was sick for 6 weeks with extreme fatigue and high fever.  She got winded climbing stairs.  It affects everyone differently. 

[bobmacliberty]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

@A&L_Ont

 

You are correct. Increased testing, increased positives. Here is what that article said......

 

“On Tuesday Florida reported 2,783 new cases, Texas 2,622 and Arizona 2,392.

 

Testing has been increased in all three southern US states,”

 
Florida maintains a 3-5% positive test rate. 
 

M8

 

M8 - I'm with you on increased new cases being a less meaningful number than % positive, but Florida HAS seen an uptick in % positive over the last few days and now stands at 7% (7 day moving average).  From what others (maybe you?) have reported, I think this is dues to increased testing focus on prisons and assisted living facilities where higher positives are expected.  Will be interesting to see what, if any, impact this has on hospitalizations.  You've got a better view of the frontline than most.

[Oxo]

3 minutes ago, Canadianmama3 said:

Since this is a cruising forum, thinking about this is terms of cruising.  People should be concerned about the number of cases in the US even if it’s because of increased testing.  To go on a cruise you need to be able to stop at other countries. I’m thinking other countries will not want to have cruises with US passengers stopping at their ports, if the US has a high number of active cases.  Regardless of the reason behind the numbers.  
 

That’s why Canada has closed their ports and wants to keep the borders closed.  And the majority of Canadians support this.  I’m guessing many other countries, especially those with weaker health systems won’t want to take a chance of their citizens catching the virus from tourists.  
 

So regardless of why positive tests are going up, or how many are actually ending up in hospital.  It’s the perception of other counties that really matter for cruising.  Or else you could be stuck on a cruise to nowhere. 

Excellent and realistic posting! Thank you!!

[Canadianmama3]

3 minutes ago, Oxo said:

Excellent and realistic posting! Thank you!!

Thanks!  People seem to forget that positive cases mean people have the virus.  And as long as that is happening there is a risk that people will get on a ship with the virus.  
 

And yes cruises may be willing to accept that risk.  But it doesn’t mean other counties want to risk it.  

[HBE4]

13 minutes ago, atgood said:

Any idea how many of the 3-5% get hospitalized?  

 

I don't have a link to any source but I've heard several times that 15% - 20% of people that get covid require hospitalization.

[atgood]

Are Covid-19 tests accurate or not and how about anti-body tests?  
 

It seems I’ve read where they are, and then where aren’t.  Which is it?  
 

I’m all for pre-tests if accurate before being allowed to board.  At least in theory, the ship would not have any Covid cases.  
 

Does anyone know the reliability of flu tests, and if they’ve ever been used as a screening tool?   
 

The quandary would be if such flu tests or other similar tests weren’t super reliable and the same exists for Covid testing, then what gives?  
 

 

[KsucAts]

The virus isn't going away until we reach herd immunity.  There are two ways to get there.  One of those ways is a vaccine, which may or may not happen any time soon.  The other is through people getting the virus.  It will take a long time to get there at 5% positive rates, but eventually will happen if positive rates stay at 5%.  I haven't tried to do the math to figure that one out, but my gut tells me that it will be quicker than a vaccine.  Since the current 5% isn't overwhelming hospitals (and death rates are decreasing), it seems like we are on a good path.  Heck, maybe opening up more and getting it closer to 10% would be manageable as well.  

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

M8 - I'm with you on increased new cases being a less meaningful number than % positive, but Florida HAS seen an uptick in % positive over the last few days and now stands at 7% (7 day moving average).  From what others (maybe you?) have reported, I think this is dues to increased testing focus on prisons and assisted living facilities where higher positives are expected.  Will be interesting to see what, if any, impact this has on hospitalizations.  You've got a better view of the frontline than most.

 

I’m not saying you are neither right or wrong. I’m just looking at a comparable as we are testing 20,000+ a day and exact same “grouping” in our province. We are having less than 200 positives a day.
 

Even with Florida testing 52,000 a day their cases well surpass ours. Canada as a nation tested 33,000 people yesterday and only had 330 cases. Yes, we also have 16 million more than Florida over much greater area but as a nation we are doing well.   Some people here are afraid in their bubble well collecting CERB (stay at home gov pandemic pay) but it is time to get out there while being cognitive of others. 
 

It’s almost like we live under a dome, or have a magical moat or something. 😉

Edited June 17, 2020 by A&L_Ont