Who gets to keep their cabin when...

[m8zenblue]

We are booked on X 11/2020, maybe. 
Anyway, I have seen postings about limited occupancy of future cruising. 
No one knows the number, I have seen anywhere between 50% and 75%, who knows.

So I was also, like others, if this is true, how will they decide who cruises and who gets canceled. 
It would make total sense to only allow cabins with balconies to cruise. 
I will be looking forward to see what X does. 

[diamondintn]

You all have me lots of food for thought. I did not intend to "stir up" anything at all. I just wanted to talk about sailing as opposed to cancelling. 

[Germancruiser]

Miaminice already told everything about those blue journeys. I booked the day after the announcment was made and they started to advertise! There plenty of cabins to get- no insides though. So in this case it was a first come first serve policy.

When they adhere the 50 or 60% capacity I am sure they folllow a similar pattern. Those who have allready booked will keep their booking- if those cruises are already at 60% booked- so no more new bookings. What else should they do?

[swigso]

We are booked on the Constellation Feb 26th out of Tampa. I just did a quick look at a dummy booking. There are very few cabins that are booked right the way up to Aqua.

The only cabins that are booked are the suites. There is 1 S1 available 2 CS and 2RS 

pit looks like most have jumped ship because prior to February this year the ship was 

showing very limited availability.

We booked a CS and got a great deal during a sale, because of this we are hoping that it will sail but I am not holding my breath. However there is now way we will make final payment in December if sailings have not started.

[chemmo]

14 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

I think they probably do, actually.  And they probably also have a contingency plan.  If they don't they should all be fired immediately (as a former manager and corporate project manager, I am virtually certain they are working on these things - they have to).  But as things are changing so fast they don't dare publish anything yet as they may need to change it as circumstances change.  

 

 

Agree

 

I am sure they have plan A, plan B and probably plan C and D too. As to how it will influence the future cruises of us all no one knows. We are presently booked on a Southampton cruise next September but will it exist? Will it exist in a way that feels safe and socially acceptable to us? Will our government allow cruising then? Will we decide to take it anyway or feel safer waiting another year?

 

Never known such a time of uncertainty...I am sure the tourist trade as a whole hasn’t either. 

[dutchclogs]

Agree x 2 . I think the uncertainty is reflected in the Roll Call activity, or rather scarcity thereof .  We are all having to wait and see how cruising will evolve.

[yorky]

4 hours ago, swigso said:

We are booked on the Constellation Feb 26th out of Tampa. I just did a quick look at a dummy booking. There are very few cabins that are booked right the way up to Aqua.

The only cabins that are booked are the suites. There is 1 S1 available 2 CS and 2RS 

pit looks like most have jumped ship because prior to February this year the ship was 

showing very limited availability.

We booked a CS and got a great deal during a sale, because of this we are hoping that it will sail but I am not holding my breath. However there is now way we will make final payment in December if sailings have not started.

Yes, looking at various roll calls quite a few individuals have lifted and shifted. We did the same with our February booking moving it on a year. Just too many unknowns for us such as a second spike and no vaccine, we were not willing to book flights and hotels and risk it.

[TeeRick]

21 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

I can only speculate, as can anyone.

 

IMHO loyalty doesn't mean a hill of beans to Celebrity - it hasn't in some time.  What matters first is suites.  So I think all the suite passengers would be good to go.  They may need to re-evaluate some of the perks like Luminae and the Retreat Lounge as far as capacity limits, but they could work around that.  After that, no way do I see it as first come; first served.  They desperately need money right now, so I believe they will give priority to those who paid the most, regardless of when they booked.  Another facet of this is money spent onboard.  Those of us who are very loyal cruisers who have sailed with them for years tend to be older, and tend not to spend as much with Celebrity onboard or on shore excursions as newer (and often younger) passengers (I haven't bought an overpriced photo from them in years!).  So another reason not to go by loyalty.  In fact, since newer cruisers tend to spend more they may in fact use loyalty numbers, but in the opposite way you would want them to, and give priority to those with few cruises under their belt.  I know there are certainly exceptions to my generalizations of spending habits, but I think overall they are spot on.

Celebrity cannot survive on the few number of suites on their ships alone.  Even with what they charge.

[Arizona Wildcat]

On 7/20/2020 at 4:25 AM, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I don't think capacity will be reduced when the ships resume sailing.   I believe that everyone will need a vaccination before sailing, so capacity constraints will not be required.

Agreed.  Without a vaccine the cruise lines cannot risk a cruise that cannot disembark passengers.  Just look at last March.  That would cost far more that just letting ships sit idle.

[Miaminice]

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Agreed.  Without a vaccine the cruise lines cannot risk a cruise that cannot disembark passengers.  Just look at last March.  That would cost far more that just letting ships sit idle.

 

Your views are already outdated! Fact is, there are already cruises sailing in Europe under strict guidelines and reduced capacity. One of them is a joint venture of Royal Caribbean (TUI). Another (Aida) is one of Carnival´s cruise lines.

Even some small ship lines such as Hurtigruten and Le Ponant are sailing with reduced capacity. So do river cruises.

Edited July 21, 2020 by Miaminice

[phoenix_dream]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Celebrity cannot survive on the few number of suites on their ships alone.  Even with what they charge.

Yes of course.  I did not mean only suites.  I meant all suites would still be onboard, and then however many other cabins they needed.

[yorky]

52 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

Your views are already outdated! Fact is, there are already cruises sailing in Europe under strict guidelines and reduced capacity. One of them is a joint venture of Royal Caribbean (TUI). Another (Aida) is one of Carnival´s cruise lines.

Even some small ship lines such as Hurtigruten and Le Ponant are sailing with reduced capacity. So do river cruises.

Yep, not sure why people keep stating there will be no cruising without a vaccine when it’s already happening. Cruise line can’t just wait in the hope of a vaccine when there may never be one.

Edited July 21, 2020 by yorky

[terrydtx]

1 hour ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Agreed.  Without a vaccine the cruise lines cannot risk a cruise that cannot disembark passengers.  Just look at last March.  That would cost far more that just letting ships sit idle.

As of today at least 4 different companies are entering Phase 3 trial testing with each doing a minimum of 35,000 participants. If they pass the testing trials, vaccines will be mass available by end of this year or early next year. Two of the companies are so confident in the results so far, that they are already ordering the ingredients  they will need to mass produce vaccines by November or December. The first to get vaccinated will be the at risk like seniors over 60 and anyone with underlining health issue risks. My wife and I fall into the first group and will have no problem getting ours so that we can cruise and travel next year. The bigger problem is that according to polls 27% of Americans say they will not get vaccinated and IMHO, they should not be allowed to travel outside of the US. I can see most countries requiring some kind of vaccination stamp on passports to enter their country.

[ipeeinthepool]

53 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

Your views are already outdated! Fact is, there are already cruises sailing in Europe under strict guidelines and reduced capacity. One of them is a joint venture of Royal Caribbean (TUI). Another (Aida) is one of Carnival´s cruise lines.

 

The assumption was that we we discussing cruising under CDC guidelines from the US.  Hopefully it will work out for them in Europe.

[ipeeinthepool]

2 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

As of today at least 4 different companies are entering Phase 3 trial testing with each doing a minimum of 35,000 participants. If they pass the testing trials, vaccines will be mass available by end of this year or early next year. Two of the companies are so confident in the results so far, that they are already ordering the ingredients  they will need to mass produce vaccines by November or December.

 

And the US government is paying them to produce the vaccine ahead of approval to reduce the financial risk.

[cangelmd]

9 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

As of today at least 4 different companies are entering Phase 3 trial testing with each doing a minimum of 35,000 participants. If they pass the testing trials, vaccines will be mass available by end of this year or early next year. Two of the companies are so confident in the results so far, that they are already ordering the ingredients  they will need to mass produce vaccines by November or December. The first to get vaccinated will be the at risk like seniors over 60 and anyone with underlining health issue risks. My wife and I fall into the first group and will have no problem getting ours so that we can cruise and travel next year. The bigger problem is that according to polls 27% of Americans say they will not get vaccinated and IMHO, they should not be allowed to travel outside of the US. I can see most countries requiring some kind of vaccination stamp on passports to enter their country.

I don't want to start another vaccine argument, but I would doubt that people over 60 will be the first to get vaccinated, perhaps the second big group. The first will be frontline healthcare, first responders, especially paramedics, etc, emergency management personnel and likely politicians. The frail elderly may be further down the line than you might think, because of concerns about vaccine side effects.

I do think that an active person over 60 who is willing to get vaccinated will be able to get vaccine as early as anyone else in the general population, because as you pointed out, there are many people who dont want the vaccine, especially not in the first cohorts. There will be people over 60 in the Phase 3 trials.

[cangelmd]

On 7/20/2020 at 9:45 AM, sanger727 said:

 

Ok. That makes sense for new itineraries adapted to the "new normal'. Doesn't really address trying to adapt an old itinerary to new capacity restrictions. Doesn't sound like anyone has really addressed yet how to turn a fully booked sailing into a half booked sailing or if you had already booked an inside, how that would be handled. I still think there's way too much up in the air at this point for someone with a Spring cruise to be concerned. 

Why do they have to do that? Drop one day from the itinerary and rebook everyone. Or just cancel and sell a whole new cruise covering some of the same dates but a shorter itinerary. Early on I would assume that is what they would do, because it would make the accounting a little easier.

Who knows? None of us know what the CDC will require, or even if it will be financially feasible to do what they ask.

[C-Dragons]

5 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I don't want to start another vaccine argument, but I would doubt that people over 60 will be the first to get vaccinated, perhaps the second big group. The first will be frontline healthcare, first responders, especially paramedics, etc, emergency management personnel and likely politicians. The frail elderly may be further down the line than you might think, because of concerns about vaccine side effects.

I do think that an active person over 60 who is willing to get vaccinated will be able to get vaccine as early as anyone else in the general population, because as you pointed out, there are many people who dont want the vaccine, especially not in the first cohorts. There will be people over 60 in the Phase 3 trials.

It has already been announced on the news (again this morning in fact) that Medical personnel, first responders, and those aged 60 and over will be the first to get the vaccine.

[terrydtx]

Just now, C-Dragons said:

It has already been announced on the news (again this morning in fact) that Medical personnel, first responders, and those aged 60 and over will be the first to get the vaccine.

That is what I read this morning. One of the mass trials is being done here in San Antonio where I live. When I went online to volunteer the website said they already had met their quota of my age group in volunteers in San Antonio. 

[sanger727]

6 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Why do they have to do that? Drop one day from the itinerary and rebook everyone. Or just cancel and sell a whole new cruise covering some of the same dates but a shorter itinerary. Early on I would assume that is what they would do, because it would make the accounting a little easier.

Who knows? None of us know what the CDC will require, or even if it will be financially feasible to do what they ask.

 

They could do that. They would just have to start selling from scratch again. If they realize in October that they can get a cruise running in November and the itinerary is more than 50% sold, it may be more attractive to keep it than to start over with less than 30 days to sell 1,000 cabins.

[cangelmd]

7 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

It has already been announced on the news (again this morning in fact) that Medical personnel, first responders, and those aged 60 and over will be the first to get the vaccine.

Hhhmm, was that from the feds/ task force or from representatives of the trial? I was under the impression that frail elderly, like nursing home populations might still be sheltered until there was solid data in the 65 plus. This would be because of their risl plus their immune response perhaps being less than others. It will be great if there is enough confidence in the data to vaccinate that population up front. I know if my mom was in an NH, I'd be extremely anxious to see her at this point.

 

Re-reading my original post, let me clarify, I thought that I had read they might hold off on the oldest and sickest to be sure there was a good immune response, because they want people to be able to visit safely in nursing homes.

 

I thought the Phase II cutoff age was 55, but I know that for some of the trials Phase II and III have been combined.

Edited July 21, 2020 by cangelmd

[phoenix_dream]

6 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

It has already been announced on the news (again this morning in fact) that Medical personnel, first responders, and those aged 60 and over will be the first to get the vaccine.

Not sure where you read this so I don't know if this is a national statement, or an individual state's plan.  If everything happens like it has been happening, it could very likely vary by state.  One thing you rarely hear mentioned is our military.  I suspect they will be right up there at the start (as they should be).  I am one of those over 60, but I wonder if other critical workers like grocery store workers and the like should get the shot before me.  But I guess if you prioritize the most vulnerable (older, or health compromised) then even if others catch it most will recover quickly and completely so the problem significantly decreases.

[phoenix_dream]

17 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Hhhmm, was that from the feds/ task force or from representatives of the trial? I was under the impression that frail elderly, like nursing home populations might still be sheltered until there was solid data in the 65 plus. This would be because of their risl plus their immune response perhaps being less than others. It will be great if there is enough confidence in the data to vaccinate that population up front. I know if my mom was in an NH, I'd be extremely anxious to see her at this point.

 

Re-reading my original post, let me clarify, I thought that I had read they might hold off on the oldest and sickest to be sure there was a good immune response, because they want people to be able to visit safely in nursing homes.

 

I thought the Phase II cutoff age was 55, but I know that for some of the trials Phase II and III have been combined.

I don't know about the Phase II cutoff age, but I know for a Phase III trial in the Chicago area they wanted at least 40% over 60.  Gotta be pretty brave to be that age and sign up as it was going to be a blind trial with 50% getting the real vaccine, and 50% getting a placebo, and then asking them to go out and about in high transmission areas to see who got sick (summarizing what I know, in layman's terms as that's what I am 🙂) 

[terrydtx]

1 minute ago, phoenix_dream said:

I don't know about the Phase II cutoff age, but I know for a Phase III trial in the Chicago area they wanted at least 40% over 60.  Gotta be pretty brave to be that age and sign up as it was going to be a blind trial with 50% getting the real vaccine, and 50% getting a placebo, and then asking them to go out and about in high transmission areas to see who got sick (summarizing what I know, in layman's terms as that's what I am 🙂) 

I believe for the trial here in San Antonio they also wanted at least 40% to be over 60 and that number of volunteers has already been met. So I guess we have a lot of brave souls, many of the over 60 crowd here are retired military.

[C-Dragons]

9 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

Not sure where you read this so I don't know if this is a national statement, or an individual state's plan.  If everything happens like it has been happening, it could very likely vary by state.  One thing you rarely hear mentioned is our military.  I suspect they will be right up there at the start (as they should be).  I am one of those over 60, but I wonder if other critical workers like grocery store workers and the like should get the shot before me.  But I guess if you prioritize the most vulnerable (older, or health compromised) then even if others catch it most will recover quickly and completely so the problem significantly decreases.

Heard it on the national news.