CDC Order

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, DCGuy64 said:

" All it will take is for one cruise ship to have a big outbreak on-board.."

That is precisely what I heard people say here and on Facebook when MSC announced that it planned to resume sailing. Verbatim, the exact same prediction. And people stated it as though it were a foregone conclusion. Not one single case of COVID on MSC to date. Which is why I'm glad you stressed it's just your opinion. I would also love to know what your basis is for saying that the US isn't Europe, other than the obvious geographic one. My take is that this is a multibillion $ industry that has been idled for more than 6 months, and if anything, they stand to lose the most if they don't get it right. Which is why I believe they will. The results of the CLIA recommendations and the 74-point proposal by the Healthy Sail Panel are testament to the seriousness with which this is being taken. Key to the recovery/resumption of cruises will be a media that reports fairly on the industry and stops running sensationalist headlines with no basis in fact, like they did earlier this year.

There may have not been a single case yet on MSC, but there have been on Hurtigruten, a Norwegian cruise line.

[stevenr597]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Excellent! So, the ideal strategy would be to have a program to control/eradicate the disease through testing and contact tracing. Once, the disease spreads into the community, distancing and masks would be necessary.

 

Vaccines have been sold as the final solution. Some of us wonder how that would be possible if the efficacy is only 50%? Every other person would not be immune? Is it a game changer?

 

In the case of the seasonal flu, only 70% of seniors get the vaccine. In the States some 40k still die every year.

 

Do you have any tactical advise for Floridians? Most of us want to cruise out of Florida. We are uncertain about the state of affairs.

 

For example, the DoH reported (Risk factors for Florida residents Page 1) that only 39% of confirmed in-state cases have been resolved (Traveled, Contact with a known case, Traveled and contact with a known case). Tracing on the other 61% has not been successful!

 

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information/state-report/state_reports_latest.pdf

 

 

One must remember that Fauci when he initially proposed "mitigation" stated that it would not eradicate the vaccine, that it would lower the height of the curve, to give hospitals and society the necessary time to deal with the effects of the vaccine.  Both in the United States and Europe they have found that once they reopened society, the virus was back.  Sweden perhaps had the best idea, they practiced controlled mitigation, protecting the aged and sick, but trying to  let it run its course through the general society.

Contact tracing has been found to have only limited value.  Individuals are hesitant to give correct information to investigators.  

Face masks are definitely of value, but for a variety of reasons, will not be the answer to full control of Covid. 

The answer, hopefully, will be a safe and effective vaccine.  

We should not compare it to the Flu (although the Flu Vaccine has been found to be effective) in that the Flu Virus does mutate, the Coronavirus while having mutations, generally will not mutate far enough to make a vaccine ineffective.

[iancal]

Do not care.  We have no intention of risking our health and well being simply to take an early cruise on MS Covid.

 

Not even shopping and do not expect that we will before late 2021 or 2022.

 

Really, why would we take a risk simply to take a cruise?  Does not make any sense to us oldies.  Let alone fly to any destination in Florida for a precruise or post cruise stay given their current record of covid precautions. 

Edited October 6, 2020 by iancal

[stevenr597]

3 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

" All it will take is for one cruise ship to have a big outbreak on-board.."

That is precisely what I heard people say here and on Facebook when MSC announced that it planned to resume sailing. Verbatim, the exact same prediction. And people stated it as though it were a foregone conclusion. Not one single case of COVID on MSC to date. Which is why I'm glad you stressed it's just your opinion. I would also love to know what your basis is for saying that the US isn't Europe, other than the obvious geographic one. My take is that this is a multibillion $ industry that has been idled for more than 6 months, and if anything, they stand to lose the most if they don't get it right. Which is why I believe they will. The results of the CLIA recommendations and the 74-point proposal by the Healthy Sail Panel are testament to the seriousness with which this is being taken. Key to the recovery/resumption of cruises will be a media that reports fairly on the industry and stops running sensationalist headlines with no basis in fact, like they did earlier this year.

The number of attorney's.  All it will take is for one case to become several cases and then an emergency on a ship.  The cruise line will be in litigation for years.  

[Potstech]

2 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

Yes, you used my math about a 99% survival rate and then went on to draw an incorrect inference, i.e. that the entire US population will get it, which isn't true. (unless you have a factual basis for that assumption, in which case I'd love to see it). 

And I was again using statistics to show that out of all cases in the US so far with an outcome, 96% survived and 4% died. Every single one of those deaths is a tragedy. But when you crunch the numbers, you'll see that most of those who died were elderly. And since the point of this thread, last time I checked, was whether the CDC should allow sailing to resume, there is every reason to believe that that can happen. Again, for the last time, these convos are interesting but none of us on this thread is in a position to make government policy and I'm making my health decisions regardless of how many stats you throw at me. It's pointless and now I must say goodbye. I'm at work and I need to finish stuff. Have a good day.

And many of the deaths attributed to COVID either were not verified or were from other causes but labelled as COVID.  There were many deaths were the deceased were not even tested for the virus so there is no proof they died from it.  Too many cases the show this to be true.

[DCGuy64]

13 minutes ago, stevenr597 said:

The number of attorney's.  All it will take is for one case to become several cases and then an emergency on a ship.  The cruise line will be in litigation for years.  

Highly speculative, and highly doubtful. The pages of CC are littered with tales of people threatening to sue over missed ports, changed itineraries, points not awarded, etc. Never really happens. The cruise lines aren't stupid, they have armies of lawyers and the T&C's protect them 7 ways to Sunday. And they're usually incorporated in states that are friendly to them. I would bet that once cruising resumes, it's going to be laid out in fine print just what the cruise line's responsibilities are and what the passengers' are. They wouldn't be pushing for a resumption of sailing now if they hadn't thought through every eventuality.

[DCGuy64]

7 minutes ago, Potstech said:

And many of the deaths attributed to COVID either were not verified or were from other causes but labelled as COVID.  There were many deaths were the deceased were not even tested for the virus so there is no proof they died from it.  Too many cases the show this to be true.

Yep, we've seen it all: cancer victims, diabetes, high blood pressure, even gunshot wounds: if the patient is found to have had COVID, that becomes the cause of death. I'm dubious about some of the numbers for the same reasons you are.

[brisalta]

2 hours ago, stevenr597 said:

One must remember that Fauci when he initially proposed "mitigation" stated that it would not eradicate the vaccine, that it would lower the height of the curve, to give hospitals and society the necessary time to deal with the effects of the vaccine.  Both in the United States and Europe they have found that once they reopened society, the virus was back.  Sweden perhaps had the best idea, they practiced controlled mitigation, protecting the aged and sick, but trying to  let it run its course through the general society.

Contact tracing has been found to have only limited value.  Individuals are hesitant to give correct information to investigators.  

Face masks are definitely of value, but for a variety of reasons, will not be the answer to full control of Covid. 

The answer, hopefully, will be a safe and effective vaccine.  

We should not compare it to the Flu (although the Flu Vaccine has been found to be effective) in that the Flu Virus does mutate, the Coronavirus while having mutations, generally will not mutate far enough to make a vaccine ineffective.

 

CoVID-19 unlike influenza has a long period where an infected person is shedding virus particles but showing no symptoms. In addition CoVID-19 can result in permanent damage to various organ systems in the human body. These deleterious effects affect people of all ages and are long term disabilities.

[DCGuy64]

2 minutes ago, brisalta said:

 

CoVID-19 unlike influenza has a long period where an infected person is shedding virus particles but showing no symptoms. In addition CoVID-19 can result in permanent damage to various organ systems in the human body. These deleterious effects affect people of all ages and are long term disabilities.

I have a friend whose husband had COVID and you are correct that it can cause damage to organs (lungs, in his case). I'm a little less certain about saying "long term disabilities." How can it be long term if COVID-19 was only discovered last December? (And I'm not disputing that so much as saying it may be too early to tell)

[brisalta]

6 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

I have a friend whose husband had COVID and you are correct that it can cause damage to organs (lungs, in his case). I'm a little less certain about saying "long term disabilities." How can it be long term if COVID-19 was only discovered last December? (And I'm not disputing that so much as saying it may be too early to tell)

 

It is easy for a trained medical professional or cytologist to tell if damage is permanent.

[stevenr597]

3 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

I have a friend whose husband had COVID and you are correct that it can cause damage to organs (lungs, in his case). I'm a little less certain about saying "long term disabilities." How can it be long term if COVID-19 was only discovered last December? (And I'm not disputing that so much as saying it may be too early to tell)

Interesting question about Covid.

Covid is a member of the RNA Coronavirus which has been around for quite some time.  It is responsible for mild cold-like symptoms which many of us have experienced in the past....no bid deal.  But it also caused SARS and MERS, fairly severe lung disease, but fortunately this variant of the Coronavirus did virtually disappear.

Several years ago the World Health Organization predicted that there could be a viral pandemic.  Possible candidates were new strains of either the Influenza Virus or the Coronavirus. Some members of WHO actually predicted that the virus would originate from Wuhan.  George Bush was quite concerned about this and set in motion facilities to rapidly develop new vaccines and also put in place a Pandemic Response Team. 

Where did this new strain of Coronavirus, what the CDC called the "Novel Coronavirus" come from.  Best guess is that it was endemic to bats and then made the jump to humans in Wuhan about one year ago.  The Chinese started to experience infections from this, again, probably one year ago, but instead of informing the World Health Organization, they covered it up. 

[stevenr597]

2 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

Highly speculative, and highly doubtful. The pages of CC are littered with tales of people threatening to sue over missed ports, changed itineraries, points not awarded, etc. Never really happens. The cruise lines aren't stupid, they have armies of lawyers and the T&C's protect them 7 ways to Sunday. And they're usually incorporated in states that are friendly to them. I would bet that once cruising resumes, it's going to be laid out in fine print just what the cruise line's responsibilities are and what the passengers' are. They wouldn't be pushing for a resumption of sailing now if they hadn't thought through every eventuality.

Big difference between somebody falling, getting drunk, or even contracting Noro virus.  But....if the cruise lines reopens, and you have cases develop on a cruise line, there will be massive lawsuits, and most likely the Cruise Lines being shut down...again. 

[HappyInVan]

12 minutes ago, stevenr597 said:

Masks are helpful, but recently the New England Journal of Medicine called masks a kind of a "talisman" or good luck charm.  Unless you are protected to the standards of the CDC with eye protection and an N-95 mask, you will be at risk to contract the virus.  

 

At this point, there seems to be enough evidence that good masks are effective in non-medical use; not just N95. From July ...

 

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21299527/masks-coronavirus-covid-19-studies-research-evidence

 

Early in the pandemic, there were some small studies that suggested masks didn't work well in non-medical use. This one has been retracted. Pitfalls await those who aren't experts in these technical areas

 

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/L20-0745

 

The study from Duke university and published in Science Advances (AAAS) gives the bottom line. I don't have the background to interpret the numbers. However, the chart below is clear enough about the benefits of protection during speech.

 

No surprise that the surgical 3-layer masks performed almost as well as N95. The surprise was the effectiveness of poly masks and multi-layer cotton masks,

 

https://nypost.com/2020/08/09/scientists-tested-14-types-of-masks-in-preventing-spread-of-covid-19/

 

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabd3083

 

So, when Dr. Redfield and Fauci tells us (at this time) to wear masks. It is in our interest to wear the darn things.

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by HappyInVan

[Potstech]

3 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

Yep, we've seen it all: cancer victims, diabetes, high blood pressure, even gunshot wounds: if the patient is found to have had COVID, that becomes the cause of death. I'm dubious about some of the numbers for the same reasons you are.

 Many were never even found to have the virus as they were not tested to verify if they were. All they had to do was to have shown limited symptoms attributed to the virus.

[nocl]

6 hours ago, stevenr597 said:

Masks are helpful, but recently the New England Journal of Medicine called masks a kind of a "talisman" or good luck charm.  Unless you are protected to the standards of the CDC with eye protection and an N-95 mask, you will be at risk to contract the virus.  

I believe this is the article you are referring to

Universal Masking in Hospitals in the Covid-19 Era

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

 

 

The authors seem to have a different take on the article they wrote, as indicated in the following letter they wrote to the journal

 

Universal Masking in the Covid-19 Era

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2020836

 

We understand that some people are citing our Perspective article (published on April 1 at NEJM.org)1 as support for discrediting widespread masking. In truth, the intent of our article was to push for more masking, not less. It is apparent that many people with SARS-CoV-2 infection are asymptomatic or presymptomatic yet highly contagious and that these people account for a substantial fraction of all transmissions.2,3 Universal masking helps to prevent such people from spreading virus-laden secretions, whether they recognize that they are infected or not.4

 

 

On the other hand there are a number of article in the NEJM that support masking and indicate a number of benefits beyond preventing transmission including

 

Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by nocl

[Abercrombie2019]

I’ll follow the advice of my government (which is still to avoid all cruise ship travel).  The CDC is still the most trusted  organization in the world with respect to infectious diseases.  If you want to ignore their wisdom then by all means please book more cruises.  As a shareholder I appreciate your business. 😷

Edited October 7, 2020 by Abercrombie2019

[DCGuy64]

13 minutes ago, Abercrombie2019 said:

I’ll follow the advice of my government (which is still to avoid all cruise ship travel).  The CDC is still the most trusted  organization in the world with respect to infectious diseases.  If you want to ignore their wisdom then by all means please book more cruises.  As a shareholder I appreciate your business. 😷

LOL, I liked that last line. 😃 FYI I'm an American citizen and my government was advising me not to travel outside the US, and still is. Guess what? We went to Mexico at the end of August for a week, and I'm still here. It's almost like they trust me to make my own decisions, like an adult. But hey, you do you. We're also planning to cruise in Europe next year, virus or no virus. I'll post some pics so you can see them from inside your bubble. 😉

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

Big difference between saying you're a doctor/immunologist, and a lawyer. Do you practice law and file lawsuits, as well?

I highly doubt it. And again, I'm not going to change my mind about cruising based on your comments here, or anybody else's, for that matter. This is my opinion and it won't change: cruising needs to resume, the industry has been unfairly targeted by deceptive media reporting, it's time to resume sailing safely, and this has already begun in Europe so it needs to happen in the USA. All of the major cruise lines agree with me and so do the crew members. Period. End of story. Enough is enough.

Yes imo cruises will resume  but very moderately,past Oct 31st pf this year  in both the number of ships  & pax aboard in the beginning   of the cycle . Full pax loads & ships sailing will not happen until  the majority of Americans are vaccinated . Reasons we give are for both pax & crew safety 

[mnocket]

Quote from Airbus Spokesperson.......

 

“Our analysis of the global market environment and the direct feedback we are getting from customers worldwide indicate that this crisis will go well beyond 2021, with air traffic not expected to recover to pre-COVID levels before 2023 at best, maybe even 2025.”

 

Is there any reason the cruise industry will be significantly different?  If recovery takes this long how many cruise lines can survive?

[stevenr597]

19 hours ago, brisalta said:

 

The  (H1N1)pdm09 response was not screwed up. It had a combination of genes from various strains of influenza viruses which first appeared in North America. It was a reassortment of viral genes. There had been a similar virus decades before and many older people had immunity to it. Rapid work was done in genetic analysis and production of medicines and vaccine that could work against it.

Why do I mention this? It is to be aware that the unexpected can happen and even though the CDC projects that certain things may occur with CoVID-19 if a vaccine is developed society as a whole needs to be vigilant. (With luck the any future variability of the virus will not prevent a vaccine from working in future.). Even if there is a vaccine it may be far from perfect and until sufficient people are vaccinated to quell the spread of the disease masks, etc. will still be needed.

Just because a vaccine is available it will not mean the immediate return to sailing with no thought of other protection.

 

Have to disagree.  I am a physician and we did not have enough Influenza Vaccine to vaccinate our patients, and we did not have enough Tamiflu to treat our patients.  Dr. Fauci was against mass testing, stating, "that because of the absence of Tamiflu, screening was useless. Interestingly one rarely heard from Fauci during this period....he was the "good soldier."

 

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, mnocket said:

Quote from Airbus Spokesperson.......

 

“Our analysis of the global market environment and the direct feedback we are getting from customers worldwide indicate that this crisis will go well beyond 2021, with air traffic not expected to recover to pre-COVID levels before 2023 at best, maybe even 2025.”

 

Is there any reason the cruise industry will be significantly different?  If recovery takes this long how many cruise lines can survive?

Any business related to travel and leisure; airlines, airline builder, hotel/resorts, cruiseline and all the industry supply chain better face the music.    Even the entertainment movie making, move theaters, music, music performance etc. etc. all can take two approaches.   

 

1) There will be a miracle and it'll all disappear 

2) There will be fundamental changes when we get over this.   

 

If you look at the history of predicting either short term or long term trends you quickly come to conclusion anyone who believe they are sure of timing and outcome will result in fools and really comes down to which fool you want to be.

[echoshipmate]

7 hours ago, Abercrombie2019 said:

I’ll follow the advice of my government (which is still to avoid all cruise ship travel).  The CDC is still the most trusted  organization in the world with respect to infectious diseases.  If you want to ignore their wisdom then by all means please book more cruises.  As a shareholder I appreciate your business. 😷

"follow the advice of my government", really? Like, I'm from the government and I'm here to help you?

[Abercrombie2019]

7 minutes ago, echoshipmate said:

"follow the advice of my government", really? Like, I'm from the government and I'm here to help you?

Yes, I follow their advice when it comes to international travel.  If there is a travel ban in place and a Canadian travels anyway, and something goes wrong, the Canadian government will not help.  

[d9704011]

7 minutes ago, Abercrombie2019 said:

Yes, I follow their advice when it comes to international travel.  If there is a travel ban in place and a Canadian travels anyway, and something goes wrong, the Canadian government will not help.  

I too go by Canadian government travel advisories although I’d soften the ‘.... will not help.’ to ‘.... may not be able to help.’.

[brisalta]

20 hours ago, Potstech said:

People on the Obama response team have said they did everything wrong when it came to the H1N1 response.  Sounds like it was screwed up to many.

 

They had much higher standards. People with high standards will self deprecate.