International Travelers May Need to get Virus Vaccinations

[Mary229]

3 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

I think this will be more like measles and other required (in schools and many jobs) vaccines that have a much higher participation rate then the flu.  Lord help us if we only hit flu vaccine rates as that won't b enough to stop the spread.

It would be great but I just don't know.......  I don't have a lot of faith in the process. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by Mary229

[KirkNC]

1 minute ago, Mary229 said:

It would be great but I just don't know....... 

Nor do I, I am guessing and hoping

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I think this will be more like measles and other required (in schools and many jobs) vaccines that have a much higher participation rate then the flu.  Lord help us if we only hit flu vaccine rates as that won't b enough to stop the spread.

I would add one word to your excellent post, NEARLY. Lord help us if we only hit flu vaccine rates as that won't be NEARLY  enough to stop the spread.

 

I believe I read that this flu season the numbers for flu shots has gone up probably due to the awareness of Covid.

[Hlitner]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I have said all along that I believe businesses will drive the reluctant ones to get jabbed.  Either their employer will require it or if they want to go anywhere (planes, cruise ships, hotels and maybe even restaurants) they will have to get the shot.  Normally the percentage of non-vaccine takers is small, around 1% but that was before masks and shots became a political statement. 

You might be shocked at the percentage of non-vaccine takers (as you call them).  If one uses the annual flu shots as a measure (which has been suggested by a respected British expert (Jonathan Van-Tam). it is only about 50% in a good year.  This low percentage drove many of us in the healthcare business to express dismay but have no solution.  That 50% measure is pretty consistent throughout much of the first world countries including most of Europe and Australia.  Some of the non participants are classic anti-vaxers and many others just do not want to be bothered.  There are also many folks who are simply afraid of the needle although they are reluctant to admit this to most folks.

 

But COVID presents unique issues (I am glad to be retired) because of all the politics.  In the US we have two very important and well known governors (Cuomo and Newsom) who have questioned the vaccine process.  While their comments might have been said in the heat of the political moment they have resulted in huge problems.  Consider that in Los Angeles fewer then 1/3 of Blacks (based on polls) have said they will get vaccines even though they are in one of the higher risk groups.  As to Governor Cuomo, depending on the day of the week he has questioned the safety/efficacy of vaccines (and wants them independently tested by New York State) while at the same time threatening to sue President Trump if NY does not quickly get its fair share of these same vaccines (that he has questioned.  Go figure.  On the other hand I assume that Cuomo will drop all of his objections the day Biden is sworn in :).  Such is politics.  But then again, whatever Cuomo says it is likely that Mayor DeBlasio (New York City) will take the opposite position.  

 

Public Health folks will have their hands full trying to change minds and the result might well be catastrophic.  That same leading UK physician surmises that we will never be rid of COVID, it will be a continuous problem (similar to the flu) and the practices of mask wearing and social distancing might become a permanent part of our Western society.  The refusal of many to get vaccines will undermine any ability to achieve herd immunity.  To make matters worse many folks (and some studies) question the efficacy of wearing masks.  My own observation is that most folks do not properly wear masks and the quality of what they use as a mask is of very limited value.  While medical authorities should be out there singing the praises of N95, KN95 and decent triple layered fabric they avoid this issue because they do not want to cause a shortage of decent masks.  As I walk around here in FL (where we are visiting) I see numerous folks wearing garbage masks loosely or under their nose (worthless).  Loosely fitting single layer kerchiefs are not very helpful but many prefer them because they are easy to breathe through (and also easy for any virus to pass through). 

 

So fellow cruisers, please tell me where I am wrong!  And what does this mean to cruising?  I continue to think that the cruise industry will unite in adopting a mandatory vaccine policy.  In that sense they will be  smarter then the government's that have tried to regulate their industry.

 

Hank 

[KirkNC]

Those who want to emphasize low vaccine usage cite the flue, those who want to emphasize high usage cite polio, measles and other diseases that a very large percentage of Americans do in fact get jabbed. Here is a table from the CDC website:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/immunize.htm

 

As you can see they are in the 80-90% range.  Which one will prevail, its anyones guess but I think with proper public health messaging and requirements by businesses, the higher one will.  As to proper mask usage, I agree.  I could go a year and not see another chin mask.

 

• Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis (4+ doses DTP, DT, or DTaP): 83.2%
• Polio (3+ doses): 92.7%
• Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) (1+ doses): 91.5%
• Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) (primary series + booster dose): 80.7%
• Hepatitis B (Hep B) (3+ doses): 91.4%
• Chickenpox (Varicella) (1+ doses): 91.0%
• Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) (4+ doses): 82.4%
• Combined 7-vaccine series: 70.4%

[kazu]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

So fellow cruisers, please tell me where I am wrong!  And what does this mean to cruising?  I continue to think that the cruise industry will unite in adopting a mandatory vaccine policy.  In that sense they will be  smarter then the government's that have tried to regulate their industry.

 

I’m not saying you are wrong but I think people will unite under the new leadership and clear messaging.

Especially since covid is now responsible for more deaths in the U.S. than all other illnesses combined 😢 

 

I agree that proof of vaccination will be required down the road to board a cruise line, air line and even some hotels internationally.  I hope we are right 🤞 

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

Those who want to emphasize low vaccine usage cite the flue, those who want to emphasize high usage cite polio, measles and other diseases that a very large percentage of Americans do in fact get jabbed. Here is a table from the CDC website:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/immunize.htm

 

As you can see they are in the 80-90% range.  Which one will prevail, its anyones guess but I think with proper public health messaging and requirements by businesses, the higher one will.  As to proper mask usage, I agree.  I could go a year and not see another chin mask.

 

• Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis (4+ doses DTP, DT, or DTaP): 83.2%
• Polio (3+ doses): 92.7%
• Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) (1+ doses): 91.5%
• Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) (primary series + booster dose): 80.7%
• Hepatitis B (Hep B) (3+ doses): 91.4%
• Chickenpox (Varicella) (1+ doses): 91.0%
• Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) (4+ doses): 82.4%
• Combined 7-vaccine series: 70.4%

Those are by and large childhood vaccines.  Look at Flu, Look at Shingles, Look at HPV.  Those are voluntary adulthood diseases.  People tend to vaccinate in their childhood then again in their post 60 years.  That middle ground has a very low  rate of vaccination.  Geez, many do not even see a physician in their adult years which accounts for 50% of HBP not being controlled.  

[KirkNC]

36 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Those are by and large childhood vaccines.  Look at Flu, Look at Shingles, Look at HPV.  Those are voluntary adulthood diseases.  People tend to vaccinate in their childhood then again in their post 60 years.  That middle ground has a very low  rate of vaccination.  Geez, many do not even see a physician in their adult years which accounts for 50% of HBP not being controlled.  

None of those you mention have brought the world to its knees or killed over 275,000 Americans in 8 months.  I think people want the world to open back up for business and travel.  The only way that will happen is through an effective and widely utilized vaccine.  Time will tell who is right.

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

None of those you mention have brought the world to its knees or killed over 275,000 Americans in 8 months.  I think people want the world to open back up for business and travel.  The only way that will happen is through an effective and widely utilized vaccine.  Time will tell who is right.

 

I think you have a good point. Despite all the initial nay-sayers, the renewed onslaught of the virus this fall -- and the fact that more and more people personally know someone who has either died of COVID or had a severe illness -- would suggest that more people will willingly get vaccinated.

 

I look at it as something akin to shingles.  Before I saw how much my husband's grandmother suffered with it, I had no real inclination to get vaccinated. But there is no way I want to go through what she experienced.

 

Like it or not, many people are more swayed by personal experience than by all the facts in the world.

Edited December 6, 2020 by cruisemom42

[Hlitner]

6 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Those who want to emphasize low vaccine usage cite the flue, those who want to emphasize high usage cite polio, measles and other diseases that a very large percentage of Americans do in fact get jabbed. Here is a table from the CDC website:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/immunize.htm

 

As you can see they are in the 80-90% range.  Which one will prevail, its anyones guess but I think with proper public health messaging and requirements by businesses, the higher one will.  As to proper mask usage, I agree.  I could go a year and not see another chin mask.

 

• Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis (4+ doses DTP, DT, or DTaP): 83.2%
• Polio (3+ doses): 92.7%
• Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) (1+ doses): 91.5%
• Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) (primary series + booster dose): 80.7%
• Hepatitis B (Hep B) (3+ doses): 91.4%
• Chickenpox (Varicella) (1+ doses): 91.0%
• Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) (4+ doses): 82.4%
• Combined 7-vaccine series: 70.4%

Give me a break Kirk.  Those vaccine statistics are for children under 3!  That has nothing to do with adult vaccinations.  In fact, initially COVID vaccines will only be approved for those 12 and over (more trials are needed to determine appropriateness for children under 12).   When I worked in the healthcare field we found adult vaccination participation in our program under 50%,,,,,and we provided vaccines for free!  With adults you are talking about flu and DTap (and Pneumonia for those over 65).  

 

Hank

 

 

[KirkNC]

6 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Give me a break Kirk.  Those vaccine statistics are for children under 3!  That has nothing to do with adult vaccinations.  In fact, initially COVID vaccines will only be approved for those 12 and over (more trials are needed to determine appropriateness for children under 12).   When I worked in the healthcare field we found adult vaccination participation in our program under 50%,,,,,and we provided vaccines for free!  With adults you are talking about flu and DTap (and Pneumonia for those over 65).  

 

Hank

 

 

When you worked in the healthcare field was it during a pandemic that will probably end up killing 300,000 - 400,000 plus Americans when an available vaccine could protect you.  Trying to compare a covid vaccine to shingles or the flu is laughable.  None of those shut down the world like this so those experiences are not relevant.  As I said earlier, time will tell.  You better hope I am closer to being right then you are or this virus  will drag out for years.

[nocl]

6 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Those who want to emphasize low vaccine usage cite the flue, those who want to emphasize high usage cite polio, measles and other diseases that a very large percentage of Americans do in fact get jabbed. Here is a table from the CDC website:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/immunize.htm

 

As you can see they are in the 80-90% range.  Which one will prevail, its anyones guess but I think with proper public health messaging and requirements by businesses, the higher one will.  As to proper mask usage, I agree.  I could go a year and not see another chin mask.

 

• Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis (4+ doses DTP, DT, or DTaP): 83.2%
• Polio (3+ doses): 92.7%
• Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) (1+ doses): 91.5%
• Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) (primary series + booster dose): 80.7%
• Hepatitis B (Hep B) (3+ doses): 91.4%
• Chickenpox (Varicella) (1+ doses): 91.0%
• Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) (4+ doses): 82.4%
• Combined 7-vaccine series: 70.4%

That is largely because of the childhood vaccination programs and the requirements tied to attending school in many states.

[Hlitner]

7 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

When you worked in the healthcare field was it during a pandemic that will probably end up killing 300,000 - 400,000 plus Americans when an available vaccine could protect you.  Trying to compare a covid vaccine to shingles or the flu is laughable.  None of those shut down the world like this so those experiences are not relevant.  As I said earlier, time will tell.  You better hope I am closer to being right then you are or this virus  will drag out for years.

I did work with HIV/AIDS which was actually declared a pandemic back in 81 (and is still classified as a pandemic).  But experience is a big teacher.  You might also look at several polls that have been taken regarding COVID vaccine.  The most positive was Gallop which found that 58% of Americans would likely get the COVID vaccine.  But other polls have showed a much lower rate of participation.  A recent poll taken of those in New York City showed only about half would likely get a vaccine (it did not help that their Governor expressed concerns about the safety of vaccines).   One very troubling polling statistic (consistent in multiple polls) is that the estimated participation rate of Blacks and Hispanics is significantly lower then whites.   These groups actually have a higher incidence of death and COVID related morbidities so that is going to be big trouble.  

 

The other problem which is difficult to poll is that it will likely take two shots (several weeks apart) for the COVID vaccines.  Duel shots traditionally means even lower participation and the additional issue of folks only getting the first shot!  Even if 58% did get that first shot is is likely that far fewer would return for the 2nd shot (negating most of the positive impact of the vaccine)  These are all issues known by public health officials.  My own take on this subject is that if the first shot causes mild side effects (it has been rumored  that at least 10% experienced some mild flu-like symptoms and fevers for up to 3 days) it contributes to even more folks not returning for that 2nd shot.  

 

The other fear among some public health officials is that COVID vaccines will likely have a relatively short cycle and will likely require repeated annual vaccinations (similar to flu shots).   In the long term this generally means a lower participation rate.  As of now nobody knows how often folks will need to get vaccinated and whether they would need more then one shot when revaccinated.  

 

And I sure hope you are right and most will go along with the program.  But I doubt if you will find anyone in the public health or healthcare industry who is optimistic about a high rate of vaccination participation unless it is somehow mandated (and enforceable) by governments.  Perhaps the irony of ironies will be that the one place where it will be mandated (and enforced) will be in China.  So the originator of the virus will become the most protected while the rest of the world lives with a constant cycle of COVID.   Think about it.  The flu kills about 650,000 annually (worldwide) and the world simply rolls their eyes and lives with that risk (which can be greatly mitigated with a flu shot).  Will the world eventually just learn to live with a few million annual deaths from COVID?

 

Hank

[TomBeckCruise]

9 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I did work with HIV/AIDS which was actually declared a pandemic back in 81 (and is still classified as a pandemic).  But experience is a big teacher.  You might also look at several polls that have been taken regarding COVID vaccine.  The most positive was Gallop which found that 58% of Americans would likely get the COVID vaccine.  But other polls have showed a much lower rate of participation.  A recent poll taken of those in New York City showed only about half would likely get a vaccine (it did not help that their Governor expressed concerns about the safety of vaccines).   One very troubling polling statistic (consistent in multiple polls) is that the estimated participation rate of Blacks and Hispanics is significantly lower then whites.   These groups actually have a higher incidence of death and COVID related morbidities so that is going to be big trouble.  

 

The other problem which is difficult to poll is that it will likely take two shots (several weeks apart) for the COVID vaccines.  Duel shots traditionally means even lower participation and the additional issue of folks only getting the first shot!  Even if 58% did get that first shot is is likely that far fewer would return for the 2nd shot (negating most of the positive impact of the vaccine)  These are all issues known by public health officials.  My own take on this subject is that if the first shot causes mild side effects (it has been rumored  that at least 10% experienced some mild flu-like symptoms and fevers for up to 3 days) it contributes to even more folks not returning for that 2nd shot.  

 

The other fear among some public health officials is that COVID vaccines will likely have a relatively short cycle and will likely require repeated annual vaccinations (similar to flu shots).   In the long term this generally means a lower participation rate.  As of now nobody knows how often folks will need to get vaccinated and whether they would need more then one shot when revaccinated.  

 

And I sure hope you are right and most will go along with the program.  But I doubt if you will find anyone in the public health or healthcare industry who is optimistic about a high rate of vaccination participation unless it is somehow mandated (and enforceable) by governments.  Perhaps the irony of ironies will be that the one place where it will be mandated (and enforced) will be in China.  So the originator of the virus will become the most protected while the rest of the world lives with a constant cycle of COVID.   Think about it.  The flu kills about 650,000 annually (worldwide) and the world simply rolls their eyes and lives with that risk (which can be greatly mitigated with a flu shot).  Will the world eventually just learn to live with a few million annual deaths from COVID?

 

Hank

The decision not to get the vaccine is often (usually?) a political decision. Just like the decision to not wear a mask. 

Some seem to think that the covid and flu vaccine will be able to be combined into one vaccine if an annual vaccination is needed. I believe Novamax is the only drug company that currently has a flu vaccine,  and is working towards an approved covid vaccine.  I would guess  partnerships by other drug companies to provide that product would come about if needed

[Sea42]

16 hours ago, kazu said:

Especially since covid is now responsible for more deaths in the U.S. than all other illnesses combined 😢 

I don't think that is true. Here are the top 2 from 2018.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Heart disease: 655,381

Cancer: 599,274

[kazu]

8 minutes ago, Sea42 said:

I don't think that is true. Here are the top 2 from 2018.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Heart disease: 655,381

Cancer: 599,274

 

Sorry, I should have added for the week of December 5th.  Thanks for the catch 🙂 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-united-states-this-week/

 

 

[SJSULIBRARIAN]

Good summary, Hank.

[Sea42]

4 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

Sorry, I should have added for the week of December 5th.  Thanks for the catch 🙂 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-leading-cause-of-death-united-states-this-week/

 

 

Yes, that unfortunately, is right.

I think it will also effect the causes of deaths in the future, as many of the Covid deaths represent those with other ailments, who died long before they would have died of their underlying conditions.

[Hlitner]

29 minutes ago, TomBeckCruise said:

The decision not to get the vaccine is often (usually?) a political decision. Just like the decision to not wear a mask. 

Some seem to think that the covid and flu vaccine will be able to be combined into one vaccine if an annual vaccination is needed. I believe Novamax is the only drug company that currently has a flu vaccine,  and is working towards an approved covid vaccine.  I would guess  partnerships by other drug companies to provide that product would come about if needed

Yeah a combined flu/COVID vaccine would be terrific.  But that is still a pipe dream and you also need to consider that fewer then 50% of folks in most Western countries will get the flu vaccine.  Also understand that we do have flu vaccines for most of the known flu variants but vaccine limitations mean even they cannot all be put into a single vaccine.  That is why the annual flu vaccines are a best guess of which variants are going to be the problem in a given year.  Many times the experts guess wrong and then we have a relatively ineffective flu vaccine (we recently had one of those years).  So far it is not possible to put all the flu variants into a single vaccine and now we want to add COVID to the formula.  Perhaps this will be solved but one can surmise it will be a few years.

 

But again it comes down to getting most folks to get vaccinated and that has been the biggest problem with the flu vaccines.  Even a vaccine that is 50% effective is a game changer if near 100% of the population gets that shot.   But when 47% of the population gets a vaccine that is about 50% effective you can imagine how ineffective that is for achieving anything close to herd immunity.  COVID is more contagious then flu so that means that it will take an even higher participation rate to achieve close to herd immunity.  While all the factors are not yet known it has been predicted that we would need 80-90% participation with a COVID vaccine to get herd immunity.  And if you are talking about an annual shot (or perhaps two shots per year) this would be a near impossible task.

 

A physician I used to work with (on a daily basis) once said about the problem getting folks to accept flu vaccines that we have met the enemy and it is us.  We have had the ability, for many years, to mitigate much of the annual flu epidemic and yet it does not happen because of the anti-vax attitude.  How do we change that attitude for COVID?  Cruise lines and airlines could certainly help by mandating vaccinations for anyone setting foot on a plane or ship.  Add to that a school/university mandate, mandates by most employers, etc. and perhaps we would solve the problem.   Bottom line is that the solution may lie in making lives miserable for those who refuse to be vaccinated.

 

Hank

[mimbecky]

52 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Bottom line is that the solution may lie in making lives miserable for those who refuse to be vaccinated.

Maybe, but I wonder how long before lawsuits abound. 🙁

[d9704011]

5 minutes ago, mimbecky said:

Maybe, but I wonder how long before lawsuits abound. 🙁

Have at it and good luck to the litigants, I think they’ll need plenty of it.

[Mary229]

First let me state again, I will get the vaccine, I am pro-vaccine, I am flabbergasted by the governors who have shunned the vaccine, I don't think this is political except for those who want power. 

 

I don't think the low vaccination rates among 20 to 50 year olds has anything to do with a political statement, a belief, an ideology etc.....  It is about personal risk assessment.  Those younger folks just don't see themselves as vulnerable.   Unless they are mandated by their workplace to get one then the flu vaccination rates are our model. And importantly this is a global issue.  If ending transmission is your preferred outcome then remember this is not a first world problem exclusively and  what 330 million people in the US do is truly not significant. I personally don't think that is the goal of world public health organizations.  I think they simply want to limit the load on the healthcare system and the individual be damned.  

 

Here we sit the upper 10% of North America, upper 1% of world wide wealth,  thinking we know what should be done.  

[KirkNC]

This USA Today article outlines the argument I have been making about how businesses and schools may require Covid-19 vaccinations.  

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/12/05/covid-vaccine-required-government-employers/3797885001/
 

 

[Horizon chaser 1957]

13 hours ago, mimbecky said:

Maybe, but I wonder how long before lawsuits abound. 🙁

I’ve yet to hear of a restaurant etc, successfully sued for refusing entry to someone not wearing shoes, though I’m sure it’s been tried. This will be much the same.

[KirkNC]

8 hours ago, Horizon chaser 1957 said:

I’ve yet to hear of a restaurant etc, successfully sued for refusing entry to someone not wearing shoes, though I’m sure it’s been tried. This will be much the same.

As long as its health and/or safety related some restrictions are allowed.