WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022

[Paula_MacFan]

43 minutes ago, cheone said:

Dr Fauci just announced that there will be enough vaccine supply by April to allow anyone who wants a shot to begin getting one.

 

He said "I would imagine by the time we get to April, that will be what I would call, for better wording, ‘open season,’” he said on Thursday. “Namely, virtually everybody and anybody in any category could start to get vaccinated.” It would take “several more months” after that to get the vaccines into most people’s arms, he said, adding that he hoped the overwhelming majority of people in the United States could be vaccinated by mid-to late summer.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/us/fauci-covid-vaccine-april.html

 

This also corresponds to the Biden admin's comments today:  President Joe Biden said Thursday that the U.S. will have enough supply of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the summer to inoculate 300 million Americans.  “We’re now on track to have enough supply for 300 million Americans by the end of July," he announced.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/biden-tours-maryland-lab-developed-covid-19-vaccine-75835695

 

 

 

 

[JimmyVWine]

1 hour ago, cheone said:

Dr Fauci just announced that there will be enough vaccine supply by April to allow anyone who wants a shot to begin getting one.

That's the problem with the world today.  People get their news in McNugget sized doses from drive by dispensaries.  Try reading the complete statement and not just the headline.

 

"Pfizer spokeswoman Sharon Castillo confirmed that it and BioNTech had reached a deal with the U.S. government.

"We will deliver 100 million doses by the end of March, a total of 200 million doses by the end of May, and the full 300 million doses by the end of July," she said.

 

The new vaccine orders, in addition to 400 million doses previously contracted, would allow the United States to vaccinate a total of 300 million people by July 31 using doses from the two vaccines authorized."

 

I stand by my earlier post, and now have an even weightier arsenal of facts to back it up.

Edited February 12, 2021 by JimmyVWine

[caribill]

6 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

"We will deliver 100 million doses by the end of March, a total of 200 million doses by the end of May, and the full 300 million doses by the end of July," she said.

 

The new vaccine orders, in addition to 400 million doses previously contracted, would allow the United States to vaccinate a total of 300 million people by July 31 using doses from the two vaccines authorized."

 

I stand by my earlier post, and now have an even weightier arsenal of facts to back it up.

 

If they receive the last 100 million by the end of July, there is no way to get them into arms by July 31.

 

Fauchi's mid-to-late-summer statement does match with receiving all the doses by that time.

 

Not sure how, if EUA is granted, the single-dose J&J vaccine fits into the picture and alters  the timing.

[JimmyVWine]

8 hours ago, caribill said:

 

If they receive the last 100 million by the end of July, there is no way to get them into arms by July 31.

 

Fauchi's mid-to-late-summer statement does match with receiving all the doses by that time.

 

Not sure how, if EUA is granted, the single-dose J&J vaccine fits into the picture and alters  the timing.

I think that the implication is that enough of the 400 million doses already ordered will arrive before July, so that those, coupled with the ones that will arrive by the end of July per this new agreement put us on pace to have 300 million people vaccinated by the end of July, with more doses left over for a wind down of the program later than that.  That is the only way I can make sense of it, unless there is going to be a giant vacc-a-palooza on 7/31 with newly arrived doses being administered as they are unpacked from their containers. 😃

[Big Tiger Fan]

Don’t know how much vaccine is in production or who made what claims. However, in our part of South Carolina we are having problems getting enough vaccine to meet demand. Pharmacies cannot get what they need. One major hospital group is temporarily closing some of their vaccination sites and consolidating appointments to best use  their supplies.  

We have had the first shot and have an appointment for the second if they have it in stock.

We have payment due date coming up for June cruise booked out of Amsterdam. We plan to cancel it since news from Netherlands is not good and we don’t know what will happen in next three months. We have looked at TA on Enchanted Princess in November but have not booked. We do have two booked for 2022 and feel confident we’ll make them. 

 

[Sunwanabe]

On 2/8/2021 at 6:50 AM, mcrcruiser said:

Our cruises are starting in Feb 2022 ,Sept 2022 & April 2023  . We did not book in 2021 because we felt that the vaccines   & vaccinations would be not sufficient through  out the cruising world

 

 What say you?

 

 

2021 is a write-off, late 2022 is a possibility for resumption. 2023 is a more realistic as goal posts keep moving. 

[wowzz]

39 minutes ago, Sunwanabe said:

2021 is a write-off, late 2022 is a possibility for resumption. 2023 is a more realistic as goal posts keep moving. 

Ithink late 21 in Europe is a possibility, and would be pretty confident for 22, albeit with restrictions in place.

[CrankyOldGuy]

4 hours ago, wowzz said:

Ithink late 21 in Europe is a possibility, and would be pretty confident for 22, albeit with restrictions in place.

 

I think with the new variants accelerating in spread and some of them not responding to existing vaccines, I am not sure anything will sail in 2021.  Obviously just my opinion so take it for what it's worth.... 

[wowzz]

36 minutes ago, CrankyOldGuy said:

 

I think with the new variants accelerating in spread and some of them not responding to existing vaccines, I am not sure anything will sail in 2021.  Obviously just my opinion so take it for what it's worth.... 

Seems like the majority of vaccines are semi-effective against the new variants. The UK is likely to be re-vaccinating again in the autumn, with additional viral tweaks (medical definition)so as to give additional protection.  The big question is if the rest of Europe will have achieved similar vaccination levels by that time.

[wowzz]

On 2/10/2021 at 1:50 PM, Markanddonna said:

One of the undiscussed issues are the vaccines for children and those in their reproductive years. I am very close to a doctor who specializes in men's fertility and he gave this analysis based on what he knows today. He took the Moderna willingly and his wife will when it is available to her age group (40+) but they likely won't have their children vaccinated because of the lack of long term research on fertility. I agree with this position.

 

So, where does that put herd immunity? It seems that some form of COVID will be in our future for many years to come. Is it enough if the older and more vulnerable population keeps up with their yearly vaccinations? Back to normal is not in our future.

Further to the issue about fertility, thus may be of interest.

BBC News - Covid: Claims vaccinations harm fertility unfounded
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56012529

[Markanddonna]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Further to the issue about fertility, thus may be of interest.

BBC News - Covid: Claims vaccinations harm fertility unfounded
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56012529

Did you read the article?  "When scientists say there is "no evidence" they mean there hasn't yet been a long-term study on this specific vaccine."  The vaccine is just now being tested on children who are at very low risk of becoming ill from COVID. 

[Daniel A]

On 2/10/2021 at 8:50 AM, Markanddonna said:

One of the undiscussed issues are the vaccines for children and those in their reproductive years. I am very close to a doctor who specializes in men's fertility and he gave this analysis based on what he knows today. He took the Moderna willingly and his wife will when it is available to her age group (40+) but they likely won't have their children vaccinated because of the lack of long term research on fertility. I agree with this position.

Did your friend offer his opinion on the likelihood of his children contracting Covid and becoming 'long haulers?'  There is evidence of people having long term/permanent damage after recovery from Covid-19 illness.  I'm not aware of any evidence that the vaccines have long term side effects on anybody.  I think it's a d****d if you do and d****d if you don't type of situation.

[Markanddonna]

29 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Did your friend offer his opinion on the likelihood of his children contracting Covid and becoming 'long haulers?'  There is evidence of people having long term/permanent damage after recovery from Covid-19 illness.  I'm not aware of any evidence that the vaccines have long term side effects on anybody.  I think it's a d****d if you do and d****d if you don't type of situation.

The problem is there is so little evidence with anything concerning this vaccine. To make any authoritative statement about a virus that has only been around for a year is maybe a bit reckless. I can understand why someone would want to wait for some better data. Remember, less than a year ago, the Chinese told us COVID wasn't transmissble between humans.  Our government, in a misguided effort to preserve face masks for medical personnel, told us masks were useless. I can see someone's point with thinking "not right now for my child." 

[wowzz]

5 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

Did you read the article?  "When scientists say there is "no evidence" they mean there hasn't yet been a long-term study on this specific vaccine."  The vaccine is just now being tested on children who are at very low risk of becoming ill from COVID. 

Not sure how you square the circle here. How long is a "long term study" and how many people will die whilst you wait the results of your trial?

[caribill]

There was a medicine (diethylstilboestrol (DES)) that was commonly prescribed as an anti-miscarriage medication between 1946 and 1971 in Australia.

 

It turned out that a number of daughters of women who received DES:

 

a) Had a higher rrisk for a type of cancer https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#what-is-the-cancer-risk-of-women-who-were-exposed-to-des-before-birth

 

b) Had increased risk of probl;ems with fertility and pregnancy https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#do-des-daughters-have-problems-with-fertility-and-pregnancy

 

There were also side effects found for the women who had been given DES and also their sons. https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#what-health-problems-might-des-exposed-sons-have

 

Basically it took 25 years for the medical community to discover the bad side effects of the drug and ban its use.

 

However, the world cannot wait for 25 years to determine what side effects may not show up for a generation from the Corona vaccine or any other badly needed medicine.

 

 

[wowzz]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

There was a medicine (diethylstilboestrol (DES)) that was commonly prescribed as an anti-miscarriage medication between 1946 and 1971 in Australia.

 

It turned out that a number of daughters of women who received DES:

 

a) Had a higher rrisk for a type of cancer https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#what-is-the-cancer-risk-of-women-who-were-exposed-to-des-before-birth

 

b) Had increased risk of probl;ems with fertility and pregnancy https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#do-des-daughters-have-problems-with-fertility-and-pregnancy

 

There were also side effects found for the women who had been given DES and also their sons. https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#what-health-problems-might-des-exposed-sons-have

 

Basically it took 25 years for the medical community to discover the bad side effects of the drug and ban its use.

 

However, the world cannot wait for 25 years to determine what side effects may not show up for a generation from the Corona vaccine or any other badly needed medicine.

 

 

There is a world of difference between a medicine (drug) and an inert vaccine.

[Grego]

On 2/8/2021 at 10:39 AM, c-boy said:

Susan we will be sipping champagne in Crooners on the November  sail away 🍾

Save a place for us if you are on the Island Princess which we will be sailing on the 14th of November.  Before that we will be on the Caribbean Princess the 15th of May which looks very good to embark on that day.  CDC has given the OK to have the CB go "green" and the crew has started to come back.  We hope to be asked to be part of the protocol trials since we live close to the port.

[seapals2]

With scientists now discussing the likely hood of  booster vaccine (3rd dose) possibly being produced for the autumn to better fight the new variants we will be in a constant state of catch up.  So if vaccination is required will it specify which generation of vaccine you last received.  Impossible!  No one was ever asked if they had received a flu vaccine.  If you were older and sensible it was something you got each year to protect from the current circulating virus and so I guess it will be so for Covid in the coming years. Right now in the UK all flights are banned .. advised to not book any holidays ... cruising is constantly shifting its start up date.  Until we are allowed to visit other countries the only cruise likely is one to ‘nowhere’ a few days out to sea and back.  Wearing a mask 😷.  Don’t think that’s high on my list of holidays as much as I like being onboard a ship.  
Bookings are all about a feel good factor ... you had over your deposit and spend the time day dreaming of life at sea.   If that’s  worth it to you then companies will keep accepting your money on a pipe dream.  The reality might be far different. 

[stevenr597]

Everything is pretty much in the air.  But here goes:

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

2) European Cruises including Trans-Atlantics....November 2021.

Cruising will be limited.  Proof of vaccination will be required.  

[PrincessLuver]

12 hours ago, stevenr597 said:

Everything is pretty much in the air.  But here goes:

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

2) European Cruises including Trans-Atlantics....November 2021.

Cruising will be limited.  Proof of vaccination will be required.  

 

Everything is pretty much in the air.  But here goes:

 

I will win the Powerball Lotto July 10th, 2021....cha-ching!!!!

[kirtihk]

On 2/12/2021 at 11:29 AM, Sunwanabe said:

2021 is a write-off, late 2022 is a possibility for resumption. 2023 is a more realistic as goal posts keep moving. 

2024 possible, 2025 maybe, 2026 perhaps, 2027 who knows, ...

[cruising deacon]

Well we know that 2021 is OUT for Alaska and New England cruises.  I wouldn't be at all surprised that other ports of call won't let ships in until 2022.

[Jenal2]

31 minutes ago, cruising deacon said:

Well we know that 2021 is OUT for Alaska and New England cruises.  I wouldn't be at all surprised that other ports of call won't let ships in until 2022.

I don’t need a port.   Give me all sea days, it’s still a heck of a lot better than being in my office.  😉

[PescadoAmarillo]

On 2/14/2021 at 12:57 AM, caribill said:

There was a medicine (diethylstilboestrol (DES)) that was commonly prescribed as an anti-miscarriage medication between 1946 and 1971 in Australia.

 

It turned out that a number of daughters of women who received DES:

 

a) Had a higher rrisk for a type of cancer https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#what-is-the-cancer-risk-of-women-who-were-exposed-to-des-before-birth

 

b) Had increased risk of probl;ems with fertility and pregnancy https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#do-des-daughters-have-problems-with-fertility-and-pregnancy

 

There were also side effects found for the women who had been given DES and also their sons. https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/hormones/des-fact-sheet#what-health-problems-might-des-exposed-sons-have

 

Basically it took 25 years for the medical community to discover the bad side effects of the drug and ban its use.

 

However, the world cannot wait for 25 years to determine what side effects may not show up for a generation from the Corona vaccine or any other badly needed medicine.

I have personal knowledge of that (and it wasn’t just Australia), and I will still be front and center when it’s my turn to get the vaccine (hopefully the first shot next month). I cannot go on living like this, and while mortality doesn’t scare me, being a long hauler does, a lot.  
 

As for the resumption of cruising, unless the major cruise lines are operating enough to do more than break even, I’m not sure anything past early 2022 will save them. It may not be evidenced by comments here, but people, because they are so anxious to start traveling, are going to begin to find other ways to vacation. After you’ve gotten the vaccine and spent $125K on a motor home, spending more money to cruise might lose a bit of appeal, especially if that cruising has to be fully masked, socially distanced and using cruise line excursions only. 

Edited February 16, 2021 by PescadoAmarillo

[caribill]

3 minutes ago, PescadoAmarillo said:

After you’ve gotten the vaccine and spent $125K on a motor home, spending more money to cruise might lose a bit of appeal, especially if that cruising has to be fully masked, socially distanced and using cruise line excursions only. 

 

Of course the "rules" on masks and excursion bubbles were put forth last year with the expectations that cruising would have resumed by the end of the year and it did resume to a minor bit in Europe with these rules.

 

But now a vaccine is available and by the time regular cruising does resume many (most? all?) cruisers may have been vaccinated and the "rules" may be quite different than originally proposed.

 

"Normal" cruising will also depend on when ports on the itineraries are willing to accept cruise passengers again and what their own rules will be.