WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022

[JimmyVWine]

Just now, wowzz said:

I cannot see the UK government giving cruise lines the green light any time before August. And European countries will probably be even more reluctant.

The variant strains of Covid are far more widespread outside of the U.S. and are proving to be a game-changer in terms of readiness.  I think they will slow a return to cruising more than people realize.  They are mentioned and reported on here in the U.S., but we haven't been overwhelmed by these more serious, more spreadable variants...yet.  I heard it reported yesterday that we are essentially in a footrace between vaccination and being inundated by another wave of peak infection/death rates and it is anybody's guess which side will win that race.  In the end, I think that these variant strains all but assure that cruising cannot return in earnest until vaccinations are extremely widespread. 

[wowzz]

9 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

The variant strains of Covid are far more widespread outside of the U.S. and are proving to be a game-changer in terms of readiness.  I think they will slow a return to cruising more than people realize.  They are mentioned and reported on here in the U.S., but we haven't been overwhelmed by these more serious, more spreadable variants...yet.  I heard it reported yesterday that we are essentially in a footrace between vaccination and being inundated by another wave of peak infection/death rates and it is anybody's guess which side will win that race.  In the end, I think that these variant strains all but assure that cruising cannot return in earnest until vaccinations are extremely widespread. 

The other thing to bear in mind, is that certain countries have a greater ability to carry out genomic sequencing than others. For example, over the UK and the US each both account for 25% of the world's sequencing efforts. It is not therefore surprising that the UK has identified far more variants than other European countries.

 

[Ombud]

@mcrcruiserI want to give you a warning about using the myturn.ca.gov.ca sign up site. I signed up. It just randomly sent me an appointment for Brentwood on 2/20 which is 20 miles away.  I am not driving 20 miles on a country road for this. So the computer might set you up fairly far away. It's better to sign up on your county's website. FWIW: I'm NorCal Kaiser and I don't think they'll ever get doses

 

Back to when will we cruise: hoping for December 2021 in Australia. If not I'll try to get on Hawaii 12/21 from SF

[Grego]

20 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

I don't think that it is a "trial cruise".  You can go to the Princess website right now and book a cabin on the 5/15 CB sailing out of Port Everglades.  It isn't a "trial cruise". It is simply the first cruise to be scheduled to depart after Princess' pause that extends through 5/14.  It is still anyone's guess if this sailing will actually happen, or if they will require proof of vaccination in order to board.  If they do the latter, then it is likely to be an "adults only" cruise with the average age over 60.

Never said our May 15th booking was a trial cruise. This is a fully to be paid for booking. 

What I did say is that Princess is aware that we are available to be on a trial cruise out of PE if they need us.  We are close to the port and have a history with them of helping with various protocols.  I'm sure they are looking at cross demographics to ensure the protocol models are correct.  

Edited February 18, 2021 by Grego
Additional information.

[JimmyVWine]

4 hours ago, Grego said:

Never said our May 15th booking was a trial cruise.

Not sure where the confusion arises.  Here is the question I was commenting on, which was generated by an earlier post you made:

 

On 2/17/2021 at 8:14 AM, Grego said:

We have put down our bets that this will happen by volunteering to be on a trial voyage procedure, booking the May15th on the CB, ...

 

On 2/17/2021 at 8:52 AM, Daniel A said:

How were you able to volunteer to be a passenger on a trial cruise?

 

Daniel A obviously assumed that the cruise itself was a trial cruise.  Understandable conclusion given the phrasing. But I think it has been answered and straightened out.

Edited February 18, 2021 by JimmyVWine

[Daniel A]

29 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

Daniel A obviously assumed that the cruise itself was a trial cruise.  Understandable conclusion given the phrasing. But I think it has been answered and straightened out.

Actually, the May 15 booking didn't enter into my question at all.  I was attempting to discover how one volunteers to be on a trial cruise - any trial cruise.  @Grego later post clarified that he has a relationship with PCL.  That answered my question as I haven't seen any solicitations for volunteers for trial cruises.  I would certainly be willing to consider volunteering for one.

[stevenr597]

On 2/16/2021 at 3:49 PM, voljeep said:

I'm 'totally guessing' - but I believe Port Canaveral will be among, if not the first, US cruise port to open to cruise ships ... who sails out of PC ? - yep, Disney - even if it's just 3-4 day cruises to their Castaway Cay private island

I believe that Port Canaveral and Port of Miami or Port Everglades will be the first ports open.  When...June is a good possibility. 

[texasgirl29]

On 2/14/2021 at 7:32 PM, stevenr597 said:

Everything is pretty much in the air.  But here goes:

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

2) European Cruises including Trans-Atlantics....November 2021.

Cruising will be limited.  Proof of vaccination will be required.  

Count me in for November TA on the Island Princess. I’ve had my two shots of Moderna. 💉🧳✈️🚢

[stevenr597]

Until recently I was a bit pessimistic.  But read an article from a physician who works at John Hopkins, and he gives some hope that we can see the beginning of the end of the Pandemic by April of this year. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?st=4vll7bkb0hgsxba&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 

[caribill]

11 hours ago, stevenr597 said:

Until recently I was a bit pessimistic.  But read an article from a physician who works at John Hopkins, and he gives some hope that we can see the beginning of the end of the Pandemic by April of this year. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?st=4vll7bkb0hgsxba&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 

 

Even if he is correct, true cruising cannot resume until the countries visited also have the virus under control and are willing to have cruise ships visit.

[stevenr597]

On 2/20/2021 at 3:52 AM, caribill said:

 

Even if he is correct, true cruising cannot resume until the countries visited also have the virus under control and are willing to have cruise ships visit.

Yes....that is why the first cruises will probably be limited to 7 days and in the Caribbean.  Perhaps, maybe even a stop at only their private island. 

[Daniel A]

22 minutes ago, stevenr597 said:

Yes....that is why the first cruises will probably be limited to 7 days and in the Caribbean.  Perhaps, maybe even a stop at only their private island. 

I can envision that being how the trial cruises would be done in order to comply with the CDC Framework.

[voljeep]

6 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

I can envision that being how the trial cruises would be done in order to comply with the CDC Framework.

I expect some kind of MAJOR announcement from Princess within the next 3 weeks - what kind of announcement ? Half-full they will announce when the 'test cruises will be and be taking applications.  

[voljeep]

13 minutes ago, voljeep said:

I expect some kind of MAJOR announcement from Princess within the next 3 weeks - what kind of announcement ? Half-full they will announce when the 'test cruises will be and be taking applications.  

half-empty - another "pause" while Princess continues to assess the blah, blah, blah 

[Esprit]

Carnival share price seriously rising at the moment! Could it be because cruising outside of the USA will start up with a vengeance after the next couple of months?

[Daniel A]

22 hours ago, voljeep said:

I expect some kind of MAJOR announcement from Princess within the next 3 weeks - what kind of announcement ? Half-full they will announce when the 'test cruises will be and be taking applications.  

 

45 minutes ago, Esprit said:

Carnival share price seriously rising at the moment! Could it be because cruising outside of the USA will start up with a vengeance after the next couple of months?

Might be the Half-full version.  Maybe...  Or did @voljeep's post here cause the stock to rise??  🤞

[caribill]

14 hours ago, Esprit said:

Carnival share price seriously rising at the moment! Could it be because cruising outside of the USA will start up with a vengeance after the next couple of months?

 

Hopeful thinking that vaccines will make cruising happen sooner has pushed up all cruise stocks.

[2BACRUISER]

18 hours ago, Esprit said:

Carnival share price seriously rising at the moment! Could it be because cruising outside of the USA will start up with a vengeance after the next couple of months?

This was probably after the UK govt announced it will look at foreign travel Mid May.

 

This appeared on 2 Carnival owned cruise companies facebook pages yesterday.

 

𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲'𝐬 𝐔𝐊 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐠

Following today’s Government briefing which highlights the roadmap back for hospitality and travel, we would like to thank all our guests for their support during this pause in our operations.

We are so looking forward to bringing our ships back and to providing amazing holidays at sea with the comprehensive framework of protocols to protect the health and wellbeing of our guests, crew and the communities we visit.

As more clarity is provided on likely dates for travel and tourism to return we will provide an update on our return to service and the experience on board.

 

When the updates will be is anybody's guess but certainly think there will be some cruise ex UK to Europe this summer/fall. 

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

On 2/21/2021 at 10:48 AM, stevenr597 said:

Yes....that is why the first cruises will probably be limited to 7 days and in the Caribbean.  Perhaps, maybe even a stop at only their private island. 

There are so many financially  starved islands in the Caribbean since cruising was stopped last year that imo islands like St Martin   may  allow cruise pax to enter as long as all of them & the crew have been vaccinated

[Daniel A]

The other thread about requiring vaccinations to cruise got moved for some reason to another board with less followers so I am posting this in this tread as well:

 

On CNN this morning Dr. Fauci stated common sense says if you're vaccinated you will not need to follow as stringent public health measures as unvaccinated people.  He gave an example if you're vaccinated and your daughter who is also vaccinated came to visit, "in fact" you wouldn't need to be as stringent in your public health measures.  It will be interesting to see if CDC applies that concept to cruise ships where everyone onboard has been fully vaccinated.  He expects further guidance to come from the CDC very soon.

 

You can see his remarks from this morning at the following link.  His statements appear starting at 1:05 in the video imbedded in the article.

 

(2) Coronavirus update: Latest Covid-19 vaccine and world news (cnn.com)

 

 

[Travlin grrl]

I was hoping for a Mexico Riviera in Dec. 2021 which would require no air travel, and hopefully by then I should have both my vaccinations. Fingers crossed!

[quakershaker]

I think sometime in 2022 is more realistic. Here’s a rebuttal to the WSJ piece. https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/unfortunately-we-will-not-reach-herd

[caribill]

9 hours ago, Daniel A said:

The other thread about requiring vaccinations to cruise got moved for some reason to another board with less followers so I am posting this in this tread as well:

 

On CNN this morning Dr. Fauci stated common sense says if you're vaccinated you will not need to follow as stringent public health measures as unvaccinated people.  He gave an example if you're vaccinated and your daughter who is also vaccinated came to visit, "in fact" you wouldn't need to be as stringent in your public health measures. 

 

The problem is that either you have everyone following the measures or hardly anybody will. 

 

If those who have been vaccinated walk around in public without masks, then so will most other people. Same with the other public measures.

[caribill]

A look at what RCL is doing in preparation for restarting can be instructive as to how Princess (and other CCL brands) might proceed.

 

Following are some excepts from a recent conference call with RCL execs and stock analysts:

 

Healthy Sail Panel with medical, public health, maritime, biosecurity and other experts: RCL has taken their 74 (pre-vaccine environment) recommendations for a healthy return to service as the basis for over 2,000 separate protocols, from passenger testing before sailing, to physical distancing on board, to disembarkation of COVID symptomatic persons. All of these things will give guests, crew and the destinations, the confidence that the environment on a ship is safer than a walk down Main Street. Not known yet is how the availability of vaccines will change any of this.

 

RCL had  an adjusted net loss of $1.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2020 and a $3.9 billion for the full year. RCL has raised about $9.3 billion in new capital and have secured agreements to defer almost $2 billion of ship-related debt through the spring of 2022.

 

Bookings remain below historical levels. But from a cumulative standpoint almost 75% of booked business is new and not related to rebooking activities.

 

The cumulative book position for sailings in the second half of 2021 is with pricing higher than 2019, both including and excluding the dilutive impact of future cruise credits.  Book position for the first half of 2022 is within historical ranges at higher average prices.

 

RCL is not ready to announce any specifics about bringing our fleet back into service. Currently, sailings are cancelled on most of the ships through the end of April.

 

The customer deposit balance at the end of December 2020 was $1.8 billion, about equal to what it was six months earlier. About half of the customer deposit balance is associated with FCCs, about 30% of the overall balance is nonrefundable

 

Just over 50% guests who were booked on canceled sailings have requested a cash refund, with the other half either holding an FCC or lifting and shifting their booking to our future cuises.

 

Looking at the first half of 2022, the pricing that we're seeing relative to 2019 shows that our rates are up with or without any application of future cruise certificates.

 

With the sale of Azamara, we've sold some of our older tonnage, helping the cost standpoint, because the ships were smaller, so the spreading of costs was not as efficient. Pre-pandemic, all of these ships generated quite a bit of cash flow.

 

The new ships coming into fleet are much more cost-efficient on a fuel perspective, and they deliver higher margins.

 

We have been operating the Quantum OTS from Singapore for close to three months with around 35,000 Singaporeans these ocean cruises. Customer satisfaction is higher with our protocols than it was before our protocols. Our revenue has exceeded expectations, both from a ticket and an onboard revenue perspective. Load factor constraint in the beginning of  Singapore operations was capped at 50% which we may increase to 65% in the coming weeks.

 

There are two technologies that have come from Quantum that really are game changing. One is the e-mustering, which completely transforms the whole process of lifeboat mustering. It’s all done digitally through your cell phone and an app,

 

Second is we've developed technology for contact tracing, using a combination of technologies. One of them is a Tracelet, which each guest wears and can tell exactly how long and where they've been in contact with everybody else who's wearing a Tracelet. We have artificial intelligence connected into CCTV cameras that use facial and body recognition to then double check and verify contact tracing in the event that somebody did have COVID onboard to ship, which has not happened.

 

In our conversations that we had recently with the CDC, they specifically asked us to share that technology and what we've been doing in Singapore with them.

One of the things that we've seen after the holidays early in January is a proportional increase in the number of guests booking who were 65 plus and that has continued to increase. So as the weeks have passed, we believe that as 65-plus are getting vaccinated, then they're obviously becoming more comfortable with booking, and we're seeing that very much in our bookings from about January forward. We think this is a major positive. As this continues, we expect to see more bookings coming in by every age category.

 

We're expecting the technical specifications for test cruises from the CDC any day soon. Several agencies within the government are reviewing the technical specifications. They have assured us that, as soon as all of these things come together, they want to get us back into operations.  Hopefully we'll get them soon, and we can start our trial sailing. When we asked for volunteers for our trial sailings, we received over 250,000 volunteers. So there's plenty of people interested in cruising.

 

We recently sent a survey to our entire crew database of around 70,000 employees. We had 32,000 responses within 12 hours. Within a couple of days, we've had 98% of all of our crew respond. We asked them are they planning on returning to work with us. And the unanimous response was yes, we can't wait to come back. We spoke to them about vaccines and the probability that they will be required to be vaccinated to work on the ships. And what did they think about that? 98% of the crew were completely in favor of that. We also learned that over 4,000 of our crew have already been vaccinated at home.

 

A new product is cruising from a home port in Barbados, starting in November of 2021, with a mix of seven and 14 night cruises into the Southern Caribbean and focused into the North American, American, Canadian and the UK market. It has exceeded our expectations quite significantly. We sold 25% of our load factor within a couple of weeks.

 

[HappyInVan]

9 hours ago, quakershaker said:

I think sometime in 2022 is more realistic. Here’s a rebuttal to the WSJ piece. https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/unfortunately-we-will-not-reach-herd

 

Quite right. It's hard to believe that we can have herd immunity by April.

 

I'll offer this analogy. Imagine a house infested with bedbugs. Sterilizing only 70% of the house (the most frequently used portions) will bring immediate relief.

 

However, the bedbugs in the other 30% will re-colonize the house with variants immune to poison. Making them deadlier than the original breed.

 

In the past, there have been successful vaccination programs for children. Compulsory vaccination at certain ages. Isolation of sick children with the obvious symptoms.

 

In this world of covid, there is no compulsory vax. Infected people are infectious even before symptoms are obvious.

 

So, a vax rate of only 70% will not be enough in infested societies. Could be enough in countries where covid is already under control. Vax delivers the death blow. Contact tracking making sure that covid stays dead.

 

Vaccines alone are not the end game. Effective zero-covid strategies are needed to return life to normal. To reopen borders, everyone has to have covid under control.

 

Cruising will not return to normal until that happens.