WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022

[Daniel A]

10 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Of course the "rules" on masks and excursion bubbles were put forth last year with the expectations that cruising would have resumed by the end of the year and it did resume to a minor bit in Europe with these rules.

 

But now a vaccine is available and by the time regular cruising does resume many (most? all?) cruisers may have been vaccinated and the "rules" may be quite different than originally proposed.

 

"Normal" cruising will also depend on when ports on the itineraries are willing to accept cruise passengers again and what their own rules will be.

One of the things I find most frustrating from the CDC is that there has been no evidence that they are factoring the positive effects of vaccines on the Framework.  It's just crickets.  This, even though the CDC has already acknowledged that vaccinated persons are very likely to not be transmitters of the virus.  Very frustrating indeed, and certainly not being transparent.

[Esprit]

56 minutes ago, Jenal2 said:

I don’t need a port.   Give me all sea days, it’s still a heck of a lot better than being in my office.  😉

+1

 

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, Daniel A said:

One of the things I find most frustrating from the CDC is that there has been no evidence that they are factoring the positive effects of vaccines on the Framework.  It's just crickets.  This, even though the CDC has already acknowledged that vaccinated persons are very likely to not be transmitters of the virus.  Very frustrating indeed, and certainly not being transparent.

We don't want to read too much into the information put out by the CDC .However ,obviously as more  of out population receives the vaccines the less likely hood of spread in the general sense . what we do need to concern ourselves with are those variants & how the current vaccines protect us to what degree . That is a huge question  now .It seems the Brazilian variant is the worse of the 3 known .  hoping that it never reaches our shores 

 

 We have been trying to get a date & time here is our area of San diego county & so far no luck  in getting the vaccine shots .We are both very high risk ,over 80 & underlying medical conditions .It is lack of sufficient vaccines that seems to be the problem  now . Supposedly ,the  cBiden administration  ordered 100 million sots each from Pfizer & Moderna . however ,they have yet to get into the  population 

 

 The above thus leads us to think that cruising is still a long way off .We are not even sure that our Feb 2 ,2022 Hawaii cruise will happen on HALs Koningsdam from SD R/T ,18 day cruise .Then our next is Sept 7,2022 on Ruby ,Alaska from SF  R/T  .This year Canada is shut down to cruise this & will not open until Feb 29 ,2022 

[USCcruisecrazy]

14 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

We don't want to read too much into the information put out by the CDC .However ,obviously as more  of out population receives the vaccines the less likely hood of spread in the general sense . what we do need to concern ourselves with are those variants & how the current vaccines protect us to what degree . That is a huge question  now .It seems the Brazilian variant is the worse of the 3 known .  hoping that it never reaches our shores 

 

 We have been trying to get a date & time here is our area of San diego county & so far no luck  in getting the vaccine shots .We are both very high risk ,over 80 & underlying medical conditions .It is lack of sufficient vaccines that seems to be the problem  now . Supposedly ,the  cBiden administration  ordered 100 million sots each from Pfizer & Moderna . however ,they have yet to get into the  population 

 

 The above thus leads us to think that cruising is still a long way off .We are not even sure that our Feb 2 ,2022 Hawaii cruise will happen on HALs Koningsdam from SD R/T ,18 day cruise .Then our next is Sept 7,2022 on Ruby ,Alaska from SF  R/T  .This year Canada is shut down to cruise this & will not open until Feb 29 ,2022 

What are the groups currently being vaccinated in California?  It seems at 80+ you should have been in line by New Years or sooner.  In South carolina, we are currently processing appointments for 65 and over.  The biggest issue here is that vaccine distributions were not done smartly based on the population able to sign up and the areas they live.  In our county, we actually have plenty of vaccines because the aging population is lower.  Whereas certain areas like the Grand Strand that has a lot of transplant retirees has a much higher percent of 65+ living there.  DW has received both shots because she's the head nurse at the Residency program here...I am not so lucky because I am a baby at 61+.  But I hope to get the chance within a month to sign up.  I may get grouped with teachers and 60+. 

[mcrcruiser]

2 minutes ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

What are the groups currently being vaccinated in California?  It seems at 80+ you should have been in line by New Years or sooner.  In South carolina, we are currently processing appointments for 65 and over.  The biggest issue here is that vaccine distributions were not done smartly based on the population able to sign up and the areas they live.  In our county, we actually have plenty of vaccines because the aging population is lower.  Whereas certain areas like the Grand Strand that has a lot of transplant retirees has a much higher percent of 65+ living there.  DW has received both shots because she's the head nurse at the Residency program here...I am not so lucky because I am a baby at 61+.  But I hope to get the chance within a month to sign up.  I may get grouped with teachers and 60+. 

The bottom line problem here in California is   vaccine availability ;because ,if the shots were available ,we would have been able to get them  .

[JimmyVWine]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

But now a vaccine is available and by the time regular cruising does resume many (most? all?) cruisers may have been vaccinated and the "rules" may be quite different than originally proposed.

 

 

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

One of the things I find most frustrating from the CDC is that there has been no evidence that they are factoring the positive effects of vaccines on the Framework.  It's just crickets.  

 

I don't think that the CDC is overlooking vaccines.  While I have no inside information, I think caribill is on the right track here.  My belief (assumption? guess?) is that the cruise lines have market studied this up and down and have concluded that they cannot return to profit until they can return to normal.  Stop-gap cruises where the theaters are closed, or where two out of every four seats are blocked off with yellow tape, and where the number of deck chairs around the pool has been halved, and where excursions become prisoner marches of mask-wearing drones are of little interest to most people.  The money will come when the cruises look like they did before, and that only happens after wide-spread vaccination.  They have waited this long and they are willing to wait a bit longer until this happens.  We're probably only 9-12 months away from this becoming a reality.  Are there people here who want to cruise sooner than a year from now?  Sure.  But I don't think that the cruise lines are rushing to accommodate those people.  The cruise lines want to announce: "We're back and better than ever" and not "We're back, and half of what we used to be."  I think the CDC understands this.  But neither they nor the cruise lines see the value yet in announcing that people are just going to have to hold out for another year.   

[voljeep]

5 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

The cruise lines want to announce: "We're back and better than ever" and not "We're back, and half of what we used to be." 

Disney WORLD in Florida is open and operating at reduced capacity

 

Disney LAND in California is still closed

 

which is contributing to the economy ?

[JimmyVWine]

Just now, voljeep said:

Disney WORLD in Florida is open and operating at reduced capacity

 

Disney LAND in California is still closed

 

which is contributing to the economy ?

Disney is hemorrhaging in both instances.  WDW is not turning a profit.  And it is way more spaced out than a cruise ship.  Notice that DCL looks more like DL than it does WDW.  Disney knows how to re-open, and yet their cruises are not on a pace to resume any sooner than any other cruise line.  That speaks volumes. 

[USCcruisecrazy]

17 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

Disney is hemorrhaging in both instances.  WDW is not turning a profit.  And it is way more spaced out than a cruise ship.  Notice that DCL looks more like DL than it does WDW.  Disney knows how to re-open, and yet their cruises are not on a pace to resume any sooner than any other cruise line.  That speaks volumes. 

Actually, according to a study WDW did last June before considering re-opening determined running at 25% capacity would turn a profit if other steps were taken.  Thus, they do not spend the $$$ for nightly fireworks, the Dinner shows are all still shut down, and the planned improvements have been paused.  I don;t think DCL isn't operating because they couldn't develop a safe way to do it.  I think they are handcuffed like everyone else by the rules in place by the CDC.  Just my humble opinion on DCL.  And the main difference between DL and WDW is location...FL has been open for business since Summer and Cali is still closed down.

[JimmyVWine]

11 minutes ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

Actually, according to a study WDW did last June before considering re-opening determined running at 25% capacity would turn a profit if other steps were taken.  Thus, they do not spend the $$$ for nightly fireworks, the Dinner shows are all still shut down, and the planned improvements have been paused.  I don;t think DCL isn't operating because they couldn't develop a safe way to do it.  I think they are handcuffed like everyone else by the rules in place by the CDC.  Just my humble opinion on DCL.  And the main difference between DL and WDW is location...FL has been open for business since Summer and Cali is still closed down.

As with everything Covid-related, it is complicated.  WDW is operating at partial capacity in part because they need to do so to remain safe.  But they are also operating at partial capacity because of vastly reduced demand.  They are taking "reservations" for park entry at reduced numbers and still cannot fill the slots. There are no restrictions in FL that require WDW to operate at a crawl, and yet they do.  Tells you something.  Not sure what their projections were in June, but I have not seen any numbers that suggest that they are operating at a profit. As for DCL, the CDC has nothing to do with it.  Other cruise lines are limping along in other parts of the world, such as RCL.  If DCL thought that there was any benefit to doing so, they would have joined them.  They simply do not want to water down the product and I happen to think that is the right call.  Wait this out and return when you can resemble what you have always been.

[USCcruisecrazy]

2 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

As with everything Covid-related, it is complicated.  WDW is operating at partial capacity in part because they need to do so to remain safe.  But they are also operating at partial capacity because of vastly reduced demand.  They are taking "reservations" for park entry at reduced numbers and still cannot fill the slots. There are no restrictions in FL that require WDW to operate at a crawl, and yet they do.  Tells you something.  Not sure what their projections were in June, but I have not seen any numbers that suggest that they are operating at a profit. As for DCL, the CDC has nothing to do with it.  Other cruise lines are limping along in other parts of the world, such as RCL.  If DCL thought that there was any benefit to doing so, they would have joined them.  They simply do not want to water down the product and I happen to think that is the right call.  Wait this out and return when you can resemble what you have always been.

I definitely agree that DCL shouldn't water down their product.  Disney has never really done anything half way.  As far as WDW, I sure know a lot of folks that have started going back and when we tried to get reservations at Shades of Green, the rooms beginning in April were pretty much taken.  I think Disney has done it smartly and has kept certain venues closed and some hotels so they could run on less staff and eliminate some of their bigger costs (like the firworks displays).. Yes, that's a watered down WDW, but even a watered down WDW beats most anywhere else you can go these days.  I think their overall numbers are especially hurt by the lack of European and Asian guests.

[JimmyVWine]

Just now, USCcruisecrazy said:

I think their overall numbers are especially hurt by the lack of European and Asian guests.

They are especially hurt by the loss of U.S. guests who would have to isolate upon returning home.  It is natural to think that bookings would be strong around Easter. They always are.  But as a whole, attendance has not met Disney's expectations.  They view this as a positive because they are losing less money than they would be if they were shut down.  But they are still losing money.  But all those people who are staying home are crushing it with Disney+, so there is that.

[voljeep]

I'm 'totally guessing' - but I believe Port Canaveral will be among, if not the first, US cruise port to open to cruise ships ... who sails out of PC ? - yep, Disney - even if it's just 3-4 day cruises to their Castaway Cay private island

[JimmyVWine]

1 minute ago, voljeep said:

I'm 'totally guessing' - but I believe Port Canaveral will be among, if not the first, US cruise port to open to cruise ships ... who sails out of PC ? - yep, Disney - even if it's just 3-4 day cruises to their Castaway Cay private island

Agree.  If you took a poll of PCL loyalists and DCL loyalists and asked them if they would spend $1,000 per person for a 4-5 day cruise with an itinerary of:

 

Saturday-Depart

Sunday-Private Island

Monday-Sea Day

Tuesday-Private Island

Wednesday-Disembark

 

You'd probably get a lukewarm reception from the PCL folks, but a resounding "YES" from the DCL folks.  And I think that you will see DCL do something very much like that when they can.

[voljeep]

13 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

Agree.  If you took a poll of PCL loyalists and DCL loyalists and asked them if they would spend $1,000 per person for a 4-5 day cruise with an itinerary of:

 

Saturday-Depart

Sunday-Private Island

Monday-Sea Day

Tuesday-Private Island

Wednesday-Disembark

 

You'd probably get a lukewarm reception from the PCL folks, but a resounding "YES" from the DCL folks.  And I think that you will see DCL do something very much like that when they can.

Plus building 'Lighthouse Point' ... their new ( at least Pre-Covid ) private island in the Bahama's that will have a pier, and no need for tenders ... huge

[Daniel A]

I don't pretend to know the answers to my questions but is it possible that although WDW is still operating without a profit that they are also hemorrhaging less money than if they were completely shut down?

 

Would it make sense for some cruise lines to initially operate with reduced capacity on smaller ships with health protocols in place (I'm thinking vaccine requirement) without ruining the cruise experience by requiring redundant health measures (masks, distancing, reduced capacity in DR and theater.) to demonstrate that the initial return to cruising is safe?  I'm wondering if those ships that would sail would hemorrhage less money than if they floated off shore for another 6 months or so before beginning to start up?

[caribill]

11 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

Disney knows how to re-open, and yet their cruises are not on a pace to resume any sooner than any other cruise line. 

 

One big difference between Disney Cruise Lines and PCL:

 

Disney is aimed at children and vaccines have yet to be fully tested on children under the age of 16.

 

It will likely be fall before young children will be authorized to receive a vaccine and that will be after the usually big summer season for DCL.

 

If unvaccinated children were to come down with the virus on a DCL cruise it would be a public relations disaster.

[Ombud]

16 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

The bottom line problem here in California is   vaccine availability ;because ,if the shots were available ,we would have been able to get them  .

 

16 hours ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

What are the groups currently being vaccinated in California?  It seems at 80+ you should have been in line by New Years or sooner. 

Apparently it's very uneven here in California.  I'm in the 65+ group, have turned down one appointment,  just sent a link to make another appointment in 4 different sites but waiting for one in my smaller town which is supposed to be March? My county's health department is sending appointment links for vaccinating 65+, continuing to vaccinate Healthcare / teachers / 1st responders, and just added anyone with compromised health concerns. If we don't register with the county we can register with the state but then we'd have to go all the way to Oakland Coliseum (18 miles away).  All my siblings who wanted it got it + my grandson (teacher). Those under 65 can register but aren't offered an appointment unless they have health concerns. 57 yr old brother-in-law (Diabetic) won't get his 1st shot until March.

 

No idea why mcrcruiser continues to have an issue after registering at myturn.ca.gov

 

Adding to above post: just opened email that schools are FINALLY reopening!! Life does return to a new normal 😌 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Ombud

[Grego]

Since everyone wants to guess based upon no real facts, I can safely say that the odds are very good we will be sailing out of PE in May thus making 2021 good to go and 2022 follows that for sure.  

We have put down our bets that this will happen by volunteering to be on a trial voyage procedure, booking the May15th on the CB, a B2B on the Island in November of this year, a February 2022 on the Enchanted and another B2B on the Crown in April of the same year.  No concerns at all about cancellations and if we go we will have over 50 voyages with Princess.

[Daniel A]

37 minutes ago, Grego said:

Since everyone wants to guess based upon no real facts, I can safely say that the odds are very good we will be sailing out of PE in May thus making 2021 good to go and 2022 follows that for sure.  

We have put down our bets that this will happen by volunteering to be on a trial voyage procedure, booking the May15th on the CB, a B2B on the Island in November of this year, a February 2022 on the Enchanted and another B2B on the Crown in April of the same year.  No concerns at all about cancellations and if we go we will have over 50 voyages with Princess.

How were you able to volunteer to be a passenger on a trial cruise?

[JimmyVWine]

6 hours ago, caribill said:

If unvaccinated children were to come down with the virus on a DCL cruise it would be a public relations disaster.

I've said this a bunch of times, and as you point out, it has particular applicability to DCL, the cruise industry has only ONE CHANCE to get this right. One more widespread outbreak such as what happened on Diamond Princess and the cruise industry will be a thing of the past.  Phrases like "bet the company lawsuit" or "bet the company product rollout" are often hyperbolic.  But here, it applies.  Covid-free cruising is a bet the company proposition for every cruise line. "Pretty good" isn't going to be good enough.   

[JimmyVWine]

13 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

How were you able to volunteer to be a passenger on a trial cruise?

I don't think that it is a "trial cruise".  You can go to the Princess website right now and book a cabin on the 5/15 CB sailing out of Port Everglades.  It isn't a "trial cruise". It is simply the first cruise to be scheduled to depart after Princess' pause that extends through 5/14.  It is still anyone's guess if this sailing will actually happen, or if they will require proof of vaccination in order to board.  If they do the latter, then it is likely to be an "adults only" cruise with the average age over 60.

[PrincessLuver]

3 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

I've said this a bunch of times, and as you point out, it has particular applicability to DCL, the cruise industry has only ONE CHANCE to get this right. One more widespread outbreak such as what happened on Diamond Princess and the cruise industry will be a thing of the past.  Phrases like "bet the company lawsuit" or "bet the company product rollout" are often hyperbolic.  But here, it applies.  Covid-free cruising is a bet the company proposition for every cruise line. "Pretty good" isn't going to be good enough.   

 

I agree......cruise lines have a longs ways to go and a lot of obstacles to overcome before they will be cruising and I am sure the safety protocols are going to make it an experience that many people will not recognize or enjoy.  

 

Even though cruising is a big priority on CC, I almost have never hear it mentioned anywhere as an industry the US needs to get going again ASAP.....I do not think it really impacts that many people in the US or that many areas of the US economically.....there are bigger economic  fish to fry.

 

The fact that stadiums are not allowed to really hold over 25% occupancy under certain safety protocols make it hard for me to believe that cruise ships will be allowed to sail full nor that people will even want to cruise until it is absolutely safe from the disease of Covid-19.  Love all the Princess Pollyanna's though......and hope they are right that it is sooner than later.

[JimmyVWine]

9 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

The fact that stadiums are not allowed to really hold over 25% occupancy under certain safety protocols make it hard for me to believe that cruise ships will be allowed to sail full

Maybe we will be able to purchase cardboard cutouts of ourselves to lie in deck chairs around the pool!  Virtual chair hogs!!

 

Agree with you on the economic impact. Far more hotel and restaurant employees are being impacted than cruise line workers. And the sad truth is that low wage foreign workers aren't going to be high on any politician's priority list in terms of industries to move to the fast lane.  There is certainly an echo chamber here of people who are ready to cruise and who think that there are sufficient precautions in place to do so.  Most of the rest of the real world isn't there yet.

[wowzz]

11 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

Even though cruising is a big priority on CC, I almost have never hear it mentioned anywhere as an industry the US needs to get going again ASAP.....I do not think it really impacts that many people in the US or that many areas of the US economically.....there are bigger economic  fish to fry.

Exactly the same situation in the UK. People are  anxious for the shops, pubs,  restaurants, hotels etc to re-open, but cruising never gets a mention, understandably so.  I cannot see the UK government giving cruise lines the green light any time before August. And European countries will probably be even more reluctant.