WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022

[mcrcruiser]

Our cruises are starting in Feb 2022 ,Sept 2022 & April 2023  . We did not book in 2021 because we felt that the vaccines   & vaccinations would be not sufficient through  out the cruising world

 

 What say you?

 

 

[MissP22]

Not that I wouldn't like to cruise earlier but I'm betting on spring 2022 at the earliest.

It doesn't look good for 2021. 

[billco]

We had two 7 day Alaskan cruises booked for May 2021. We cancelled both and replaced them with a 14 day Baltic cruise for May 2021. No new money. FCCs from April 2020 cancelled cruise and gift cards that we had purchased in February 2020 for final payment. We'll see how that goes.

[beg3yrs]

I wonder if the bookies in Las Vegas will take those bets? At least then we'd see what the gamblers think. Those people actually put their money where their mouth (or keyboard) is!

[mcrcruiser]

1 minute ago, beg3yrs said:

I wonder if the bookies in Las Vegas will take those bets? At least then we'd see what the gamblers think. Those people actually put their money where their mouth (or keyboard) is!

Well we can venture to say that if some cruising doesn't happen in 2021  Carnival Corporations cash reserves will be very strained.whether they have a market for further lending possibilities ,only time will tell 

[Lady Arwen]

We cancelled all 2021 cruises and booked only one for May 2022 on Enchanted Princess.  We’ve decided to not book multiple cruises, as we have in the past, but to concentrate on one at a time and see how it goes.

[susancruzs]

I'm booked for Nov.  2021 for a Med + TA, but think my Aug. 2022 Baltic is more likely a go.  Cruising for 2021 looks iffy.  

[mcrcruiser]

7 minutes ago, Lady Arwen said:

We cancelled all 2021 cruises and booked only one for May 2022 on Enchanted Princess.  We’ve decided to not book multiple cruises, as we have in the past, but to concentrate on one at a time and see how it goes.

You may get better deals shopping around now vs say in 2022  for future cruises

[c-boy]

Susan we will be sipping champagne in Crooners on the November  sail away 🍾

[Tak8]

I'd say October of this year for certain destinations such as the Caribbean.  I have a New Years cruise on the Regal I'm hopeful will sail.  

[mcrcruiser]

6 minutes ago, Tak8 said:

I'd say October of this year for certain destinations such as the Caribbean.  I have a New Years cruise on the Regal I'm hopeful will sail.  

To a large degree ,we believe cruising will start once  the vaccines have been out for awhile  & the 3 known variant strains are contained with either boosters of new vaccines .The vaccines of today  are far more rapidly produced based on the new formularies .This could happen fairly soon . Additionally ,We can see that in order to cruise being vaccinated could become a mandatory  requirement

Edited February 8, 2021 by mcrcruiser

[PapaBearToo]

We are booked for Mexican Riviera for March 2022.  We have both received second doses of the vaccine and are raring to go.  Fingers crossed for everyone.  Let's get this show on the road!

[mcrcruiser]

6 hours ago, PapaBearToo said:

We are booked for Mexican Riviera for March 2022.  We have both received second doses of the vaccine and are raring to go.  Fingers crossed for everyone.  Let's get this show on the road!

Agree & with more & more people getting vaccinated ,we should hopefully see some cruising toward the end of the 3rd qtr or early 4th quarter of 2021 imo .however ,we all should be prepared for more stringent  protocols 

[skynight]

Ships should be sailing 1st qtr 2022, but the cruise may still have covid protocols in place that may effect the enjoyment. By 2023 expect cruises will be back to normal, although it may still be a new normal.

[cheone]

9 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Our cruises are starting in Feb 2022 ,Sept 2022 & April 2023  . We did not book in 2021 because we felt that the vaccines   & vaccinations would be not sufficient through  out the cruising world

 

 What say you?

 

 

Anyone in the USA will be able to get a covid shot by April, thanks to Operation Warp speed, where we funded the research and ordered vaccine that was guaranteed to be delivered as follows:

Moderna and Pfizer 200 million doses each,  Each will deliver 100 miilion doses by March 31st and each will deliver another 100 Million by June 1st. Both have said that they are on tract in meeting their guaranteed deliveries.  Johnson and Johnson 100 million doses purchase and will be approved in the next 10 days.  Johnson and Johnson said they will deliver 100 million doses by June.  100 million doses of Noravax vacinne has also been purchased by United States.  The above information comes from Operation Warp Speed web site , plus the websites of Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson and Johnson. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by cheone

[PrincessLuver]

1 hour ago, cheone said:

Anyone in the USA will be able to get a covid shot by April, thanks to Operation Warp speed, where we funded the research and ordered vaccine that was guaranteed to be delivered as follows:

Moderna and Pfizer 200 million doses each,  Each will deliver 100 miilion doses by March 31st and each will deliver another 100 Million by June 1st. Both have said that they are on tract in meeting their guaranteed deliveries.  Johnson and Johnson 100 million doses purchase and will be approved in the next 10 days.  Johnson and Johnson said they will deliver 100 million doses by June.  100 million doses of Noravax vacinne has also been purchased by United States.  The above information comes from Operation Warp Speed web site , plus the websites of Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson and Johnson. 

 

Not true......Pfizer did not take any US money for research and the US government does not own any rights to these vaccines.  Years and years of scientific research contributed to the rapid development of these vaccines not some PR name. 

 

I really really doubt that everyone in the US will be able to get a shot by April based on the pace that vaccinations are happening now in the US......do not expect cruising to start until mid-Spring 2022 and of course that depends on how the rest of the world does with vaccinations and if other variants come along which nobody can forsee right now.

 

 

[PurpleHays]

We cancelled our June 2021 Alaska and moved to Western Europe/TA November 2022. I'm hoping things settle down by then.

[Barry ATL]

DH @Ken-ATL and I booked on an 11/28 Caribbean Princess.  We booked so late in the year with the thought that limited cruising would probably actually start in Sept/Oct and we would not be one of the first cruises.  Now we are not so sure.

[EllieinNJ]

We are booked on the November 2021 repo from NY to Ft. Lauderdale on the Caribbean Princess but if the Canada and New England cruises before us are truly cancelled there may be no reason for the ship to be in NY and they may cancel us too.  I will be so disappointed.

[welshy74]

Contemplating booking a Scandinavia and Russia cruise on Sky Princess, departing Southampton on 18th August 2021.  My heart says do it, but my head says not a chance.   Vaccine program is speeding up in UK and I am due my vaccine in April, 2nd in June/July, so most people in UK will be vaccinated by mid August.  What to do?????

[susancruzs]

Susan we will be sipping champagne in Crooners on the November  sail away 🍾

 

Fingers crossed for this cruise and so glad Enchanted has Crooners! 🙂  So popular, couldn't understand why Princess went away from it!  

[neverbeenhere]

5 to 2 ---for starting

[loge23]

Lost two already, with another two booked - one for late December 2021 (Caribbean), and another for April 2022 (TA and Northern Europe).

Skeptical for the December cruise with the vaccination rate abysmally slow here in February already. Also have to remember it's not just here in the USA - the rest of the world must also be safe. 

So, for odds sake: 

December 2021? 50% chance.

April 2022? 70% chance. 

Of course if a variant becomes widespread, these chances get much lower. 

We live in strange times now. 

[trbarton]

Here’s some discussion going around that I think makes sense. Cancun in Mexico is a possibility for a place to start crushing out of. By going there you eliminate any problems because you don’t have to conform to the PVSA, Passenger Vessel Service Act, that controls cruise ships. Many people say that’s it’s Jones Act but if you look it up it only applies to commercial cargo ships not cruise ships. 
 

What do other people think about using Mexico as a base for cruising?  The CDC would have so say so about this. 
 

Tom😀

[JimmyVWine]

19 hours ago, cheone said:

Anyone in the USA will be able to get a covid shot by April, thanks to Operation Warp speed, where we funded the research and ordered vaccine that was guaranteed to be delivered as follows:

Moderna and Pfizer 200 million doses each,  Each will deliver 100 miilion doses by March 31st and each will deliver another 100 Million by June 1st. Both have said that they are on tract in meeting their guaranteed deliveries.  Johnson and Johnson 100 million doses purchase and will be approved in the next 10 days.  Johnson and Johnson said they will deliver 100 million doses by June.  100 million doses of Noravax vacinne has also been purchased by United States.  The above information comes from Operation Warp Speed web site , plus the websites of Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson and Johnson. 

So much is wrong with these "facts".  But let's stick to the math.  With two doses per person needed for complete vaccination, we would need 656 million doses to vaccinate everyone in the United States by April 1.  Your post above promises us 100 million doses each by Moderna and Pfizer by March 31.  That is 200 million doses that will vaccinate 100 million people.  You go on to say that each will then add another 100 million doses, (200 million doses covering another 100 million people) by June 1.  So by your own aggressive math, 200 million people out of 328 million people will be (can be) vaccinated by the end of June.  (Remember, having the doses available on June 1 does not mean that the doses are in the arms by June 1.  You have to add in at least another month for distribution.)  So you have in one breath told us that anyone can have a shot by April 1, but you then laid out math that shows that only two-thirds of the country can be vaccinated by June 30.  

 

Warp Speed is a slogan, not a solution.  I don't think that the good people in Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine even heard of the phrase.  https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55041371  The term isn't even mentioned in this piece.