First cruise is positive for covid: What will have to change?

[Luckiestmanonearth]

6 minutes ago, jtwind said:

I disagree.  If it was found that these two lied about vaccination, the news would be all over it.  Just release a statement, true or not, saying something like 'they could face up to 10 years in prison', and watch what happens.

I agree with your comment but I’m also a realist that believes at some point on some cruise, someone is going to try to fake being vaccinated.  Face it that some humans have such an inner bad self and will try it for their own benefit and not think about the health and welfare of the other passengers.

[cbr663]

1 hour ago, Roz said:

Statistically, what are the chances that 2 vaccinated people traveling together and sharing a cabin are both breakthrough cases?

 

@vintagegarage, you make some excellent points.

 

The risk is low, not doubt about it.  It isn't zero though.  And as the risk of breakthrough cases is fluid, it will take some time to see what the risk really is.

 

I am Canadian and we are seeing more and more provincial health agencies reporting breakthrough cases in the past several weeks.  There is an outbreak of the delta variant right now in a Calgary hospital involving at least 10 people who were fully vaccinated.

 

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/10-delta-variant-cases-connected-to-outbreak-at-calgary-hospital-were-fully-immunized-1.5466403

[Anita Latte]

It seems to me that finding only 2 positive cases on board is a huge confirmation of the process. The vaccines aren’t 100% effective, but they are proving to be highly effective in preventing symptomatic COVID. We can’t know the exact percentage because with asymptomatic disease there’s no motivation for testing and unless you are in a position to need a negative test, for travel or work or surgery or whatever, we can’t know how many asymptomatic cases there are in the vaccinated. The so called breakthrough cases for symptomatic COVID are easier to get info about obviously.

 

Reading the different articles, most articles are affirming the process. The headline grabber is that there were any cases, but deeper in the article are the affirmations that because of the vaccine requirements etc for the cruise line protocol, there is no community spread onboard. The headlines are just the typical sensationalism to get readership, but the tone of most reports is that everything is working as it should, including the vaccines, even though there are two positive cases, they are asymptomatic. 

 

I think it’s very informative for future cruisers to be able to learn about what happens on the ship when a positive cases happens. Reading about the consequences to the close contact cases, etc.

 

Also, I don’t know the cruise itinerary nor what the two passengers did, but cruising to a place where cases are still high, vaccine rates are still low, and the world is watching variants spread and we are all watching for how effective vaccines are against these variants, there may always be COVID cases reported on any cruise especially if travel is involved to get to embarkation and there is a mix of country of origin onboard.

Edited June 12, 2021 by Anita Latte

[cbr663]

32 minutes ago, Anita Latte said:

....

 

I think it’s very informative for future cruisers to be able to learn about what happens on the ship when a positive cases happens. Reading about the consequences to the close contact cases, etc.

 

....

That is why I am paying attention to the headlines about what happens when positive cases occur.  Before I feel comfortable booking another cruise I need to have a clear understanding of exactly what I am booking.  I don't want unrealistic expectations going forward.

 

As for breakthrough cases, they are occurring.  The CDC is monitoring and more can be found here:  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm.

 

Some take aways from the CDC article (and these apply to the general population, not the cruising industry):

1.  Breakthrough cases are expected,

2.  Rate of breakthrough cases is low,

3.  Less than 27% of breakthrough cases were asymptomatic,

4.  The number of breakthrough cases reported is thought to be substantially undercounted

[Charles4515]

6 hours ago, Roz said:

Statistically, what are the chances that 2 vaccinated people traveling together and sharing a cabin are both breakthrough cases?

 

@vintagegarage, you make some excellent points.

 

It is fishy that two people sharing a cabin had breakthrough cases. One I certainly would deem possible but two......?  

[2wheelin]

10 hours ago, Roz said:

 

I didn't realize there were 3,000 passengers on the ship, and I thought 95% were vaccinated.  Maybe I'm confusing this with another sailing.  

No, you are correct. It is just that some others are so quick to post negativity that they fail to follow the thread. And there can be no spreader event if there is no spread. Some people are just chicken littles.

[Anita Latte]

The reports are that there were about 1300 on the ship in total including crew and passengers. I read that there about 10 children on board.

[Lois R]

10 minutes ago, Anita Latte said:

The reports are that there were about 1300 on the ship in total including crew and passengers. I read that there about 10 children on board.

Hi Anita, your number is correct.......there were more crew than pax....I think there were about 500 pax and the rest were staff and crew.

[pris993]

nothing!!  It is working!!

 

[K32682]

The fact is the first time out of the gate and it's a failure despite all of the protocols in place. Everyone involved was presumably at their highest state of vigilance but still two cases snuck through. 

 

Even at reduced capacity each cruiser is affected by the actions of every single other person on board. The person who fakes an immunization certificate or ignores onboard protocols places the cruise at risk of being cut short, having port visits denied or being quarantined upon returning to the home port. 

 

I can find better ways to spend my holiday income without the risk of the trip being disrupted because of someone else's ignorance or oversight. 

 

[2wheelin]

58 minutes ago, K32682 said:

The fact is the first time out of the gate and it's a failure despite all of the protocols in place. Everyone involved was presumably at their highest state of vigilance but still two cases snuck through. 

 

Even at reduced capacity each cruiser is affected by the actions of every single other person on board. The person who fakes an immunization certificate or ignores onboard protocols places the cruise at risk of being cut short, having port visits denied or being quarantined upon returning to the home port. 

 

I can find better ways to spend my holiday income without the risk of the trip being disrupted because of someone else's ignorance or oversight. 

 

Please point to the evidence this was a failure and how anyone’s clandestine actions contributed. As has been pointed out several times, the process worked.

According to your definition of failure, there should also not be cabinmates allowed because one vaccinated person MAY have infected the other. A tiny percentage of vaccinated people will test positive. Get over it.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, K32682 said:

The fact is the first time out of the gate and it's a failure despite all of the protocols in place. Everyone involved was presumably at their highest state of vigilance but still two cases snuck through. 

 

Even at reduced capacity each cruiser is affected by the actions of every single other person on board. The person who fakes an immunization certificate or ignores onboard protocols places the cruise at risk of being cut short, having port visits denied or being quarantined upon returning to the home port. 

 

I can find better ways to spend my holiday income without the risk of the trip being disrupted because of someone else's ignorance or oversight. 

 

The fact that two cases snuck through does not in and of itself prove that there was some action that was the cause of the cases. The protocols that were there to stop the spread worked exactly as they were supposed to. There is a reason that the CDC has not said one case and the cruise is over instead of establishing a threshold of cases.

 

Just now, 2wheelin said:

Please point to the evidence this was a failure and how anyone’s clandestine actions contributed. As has been pointed out several times, the process worked.

According to your definition of failure, there should also not be cabinmates allowed because one vaccinated person MAY have infected the other. A tiny percentage of vaccinated people will test positive. Get over it.

I was in the midst of replying when I saw someone else had replied, show reply. You and I have basically the same thing to say.

[K32682]

3 hours ago, 2wheelin said:

Please point to the evidence this was a failure and how anyone’s clandestine actions contributed. As has been pointed out several times, the process worked.

According to your definition of failure, there should also not be cabinmates allowed because one vaccinated person MAY have infected the other. A tiny percentage of vaccinated people will test positive. Get over it.

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

[K32682]

3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

The fact that two cases snuck through does not in and of itself prove that there was some action that was the cause of the cases. The protocols that were there to stop the spread worked exactly as they were supposed to. There is a reason that the CDC has not said one case and the cruise is over instead of establishing a threshold of cases.

 

The fact that some cases did get through despite reduced capacity, onboard protocols, testing, immunization requirements, etc. may be sufficient to prompt countries to not permit cruisers in their ports in the short term or require cruise-line only excursions.  It may also be sufficient to cause many potential cruisers to spend their holiday dollars on other travel options.  

[ontheweb]

6 minutes ago, K32682 said:

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

If the CDC had come up with even a single case would mean the end of cruising, or at least the cruise in which it occurred, everyone would be complaining about their arbitrary, impossible to meet standard.

[ontheweb]

3 minutes ago, K32682 said:

 

The fact that some cases did get through despite reduced capacity, onboard protocols, testing, immunization requirements, etc. may be sufficient to prompt countries to not permit cruisers in their ports in the short term or require cruise-line only excursions.  It may also be sufficient to cause many potential cruisers to spend their holiday dollars on other travel options.  

That is a concern, and in fact will be even more of one as they increase capacity.

 

Life is a risk.

[c-boy]

12 minutes ago, K32682 said:

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

     " Even with a fully vaccinated (and tested) crew and passenger base, breakthrough cases could happen. They've happened on land, and they certainly could happen at sea.

 

As one cruise line exec said: "You'll never eliminate COVID entirely, it's how you deal with it that is important."  

[ColeThornton]

27 minutes ago, K32682 said:

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

 

 

That's a very unrealistic definition of success.

Edited June 13, 2021 by ColeThornton

[Anita Latte]

11 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

That's very unrealistic definition of success.

 

Especially with a vaccine that is not 100% effective.

[Heidi13]

1 hour ago, K32682 said:

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

 

The COVID Health & Safety Protocols are your typical multiple layers risk management strategy. In this case, the first objective is to reduce the potential of bringing it onboard and then the second objective is to limit spread, if/when COVID is brought aboard.

 

Whether they achieved the first objective could be debatable. However, when considering it from a risk management perspective, I will suggest they did achieve in limiting the number of COVID cases brought aboard. Expecting zero cases, or completely eliminating the risk is just not practical or cost effective.

 

For the 2nd objective, at present, they only have 2 confirmed cases in the same cabin, so have not experienced any onboard transmission, therefore the 2nd objective procedures worked.

 

I note they only found the positive cases when conducting testing in accordance with the requirements of the disembarkation port. The ship did not require regular testing (daily) for early detection of any COVID cases getting aboard. From a risk management perspective, this would be another important layer to enhance health & safety. For contact tracing, I read they used shore-ex lists and reviewed CCTV films. Contact tracing would have been enhanced if each pax was supplied with a contact training technology throughout the cruise.

 

Therefore, while their procedures did work this time, they can still be improved.

[evandbob]

The 2 positive cases did not spread to other passengers.  Contact tracing did inconvenience those unsuspecting others who were close to the 2 positive people since they had to be tested and were confined to their cabins for 1 night.  No ports were missed and the ship wasn't delayed.  Nor was the cruise shortened.  The Captain seemed to give passengers enough info to keep them informed and in the loop per the onboard reporters.

 

I'd call it a successful cruise.

[navybankerteacher]

On 6/11/2021 at 1:43 PM, Roz said:

If most of the passengers onboard are vaccinated, how can it be a spreader event?

If only “most” (which means just over half) are vaccinated there can be  hundreds not vaccinated - all that is necessary for something to be a “spreader event” is for there to be some spread at the event.  Of course, as the percentage vaccinated increases, the risk of spread decreases — that is why 100% vaccinated is a whole lot better than “most” vaccinated.  Much as such logic inconveniences the anti-vaxxers who, naturally, plan to be among the 5% not vaccinated on a ship with a 95% threshold.

Edited June 13, 2021 by navybankerteacher

[Roz]

2 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

If only “most” (which means just over half) are vaccinated there can be  hundreds not vaccinated - all that is necessary for something to be a “spreader event” is for there to be some spread at the event.  Of course, as the percentage vaccinated increases, the risk of spread decreases — that is why 100% vaccinated is a whole lot better than “most” vaccinated.  Much as such logic inconveniences the anti-vaxxers who, naturally, plan to be among the 5% not vaccinated on a ship with a 95% threshold.

 

I didn't know the definition of "most" was 50% +1.  I was referring to the 95% who are vaccinated on the ship.  Still don't think it's a super spreader event.  

[wdw1972]

5 hours ago, K32682 said:

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

Omigod - that's ridiculously impossible.  Covid is out there - it will be part of our lives forever.  Get vaccinated & you don't have to worry about serious illness or long term effects.  The 2 passengers on Millenium are vaccinated and were asymptomatic.  The likelihood they could transmit the virus to anyone else is very low.  Let's get real and stop being hysterical over this thing!

 

Sue/WDW1972

[Roz]

6 hours ago, K32682 said:

 

Two positive cases is proof it didn't work. The definition of success is no cases at all. 

 

This is an impossible standard to meet.