Abandon hope all ye who enter here:

[Quo Vadis?]

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread.

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability.

1. Look at the stock price.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Are you buying stock in the industry?
2. Look at your stock portfolio.  How much has it suffered this month?  Do you feel that you still have enough to indulge in cruising?
3. Have you lost your job?  Has your salary been cut?  Can you still afford that cruise you booked months ago?
4. Have you been on a ship with a confirmed Covid-19 case?  Have you been tested as a result?  (My wife has)
5. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL?  Would you trade places with them?
6. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity)
7. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard?
8. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues?
9. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $.
10. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships?
11. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams.

 

People are poorer, people are scared, senior cruisers are dying, companies are bleeding cash.  How is this going to end well before the end of the year?

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Argo.

[jalves]

Yes, definitely a pessimistic view.  I'm an optimist and think that we are all in for a rough period but that thing will return to normal.    Temporary hardships/restrictions are just that - temporary.

[mahdnc]

Our next cruise is the Jan 3 2021 Solstice sailing, 11 night South Pacific.  A month ago, I would have thought that we were ok for doing this cruise.  Now I am not so sure.  My wife says no cruising until there is a vaccine.....

[mafig]

last week I would have probably said we'd be cruising again Oct./Nov.

However, I really think the publicity yesterday was really damaging.  People were home with nothing to do but watch the Ft. Lauderdale  webcam.  

 

Then seeing all the ambulances at the dock.  I stopped watching it, but someone told me it looked like they were offloading body bags.  

 

I think everyone has underestimated this pandemic.  It wasn't that long ago I was seeing little Corona beer jokes on here, people who raised the alarm being told to worry about the flu instead, which kills so many etc.,.................

 

I also think the cruise lines will lie to us to protect themselves.  

Edited April 3, 2020 by mafig

[PTC DAWG]

I voted absolutely and this September...

 

This seems to suit the OP

 

[Fouremco]

I'd call it a realistic view. Sure, in the fulness of time, things may return to normal, but certainly not by January 2021. There may or may not be cruise ships sailing at that time, but IMO there is no conceivable way that these cruises will be "normal".

 

We have a March 2021 cruise that we booked last summer, and I'm skeptical about it. Fortunately, we have lots of time until final payment to see how/if the cruise industry has rebounded and to judge the threat of Covid-19. As for the Canadian dollar, we booked in CAD so the price of the cruise itself won't rise. Flights and pre-cruise lodgings are another question.

[C-Dragons]

1 hour ago, Argo. said:

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread. My glasses are definitely not rose colored. 😉

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability. Your Poll implies that you are inviting Optimists and Pessimists to vote, but your remarks and questions below are definitely aimed at pessimists, so I guess I probably shouldn’t have voted.

 

1. Look at the stock price.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Are you buying stock in the industry? Yes, in fact we did buy stock.
2. Look at your stock portfolio.  How much has it suffered this month?  Do you feel that you still have enough to indulge in cruising? The only stock we have we just recently bought.
3. Have you lost your job?  Has your salary been cut?  Can you still afford that cruise you booked months ago? No, no, and yes.
4. Have you been on a ship with a confirmed Covid-19 case?  Have you been tested as a result?  (My wife has) No and no.
5. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL?  Would you trade places with them? No, and your second question is a non sequitur.
6. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity) I think probably far fewer than all the infected ships belonging to all other cruise lines.
7. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard? That is probably best answered by those who were on an affected sailing.
8. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues? I did receive an FCC which I am happy with, but I'm also under 70 and healthy.
9. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $. Not applicable.
10. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships? 
     First, not applicable, second why the question addressing HAL cruisers on a X board?
11. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams. I do agree that the May sailing and all others during the Summer months will be canceled. (Our April 13th one was).

People are poorer, people are scared, senior cruisers are dying, companies are bleeding cash.  How is this going to end well before the end of the year?  

Yes, many terrible things have happened, as the World has been turned upside down. Things will be hard on so many levels for everyone for a long, long time. But things will eventually turn around. There have been many horrible events during the course of history, but mankind persevered and eventually life returned to “normal”. After these catastrophic events life does not return to the way it was before. But we adapt to each new “normal” and carry on. ☮️

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by C-Dragons

[Life Buoy]

14 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

 

I really feel for those who are most affected, but in every tragedy there is opportunity. The stock market will recover and some will look back and be thankful they they seized opportunities to improve their portfolio Some cruisers might be able to take advantage of special offers that might come and be able to experience lines that they thought were out of their reach. We will be better prepared for the next health crisis that will most certainly arrive. New technology might be created and new business opportunities will be developed. Be safe and think with your head and not your heart.

[hcat]

We will hope to take one more cruise to use up the fcc but maybe will skip it.  Or maybe X will bar us from boarding due to med issues.  

 

Not so much based on health reasons but the behavior of X throughout the cancellation fiascos. Too many hassles. Time will tell.

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

Your second question should have had the opportunity to answer:  will wait and see.  Am not convinced we will be cruising in January 2021.  I certainly have nothing booked for then.  I'm hoping I get to use the pieces of paper called FCCs which will be reissued to me because I used them on some cruises which were cancelled, but I'm not optimistic about that.  Celebrity is in a very precarious position.  LLP drove them deeply in debt with her new ships and all the refurbishing.  She initiated stock buybacks and paid out big dividends to keep the stock price high.  Thus no cash reserves.  How's that working out for you now, Lisa?  They just drew down the last of their credit reserves.  I'm just hoping I get the money back from my cancelled cruises before they go belly up.  I am exceedingly grateful to all those who are accepting 125% FCCs and not draining their cash reserves.  Am cancelling the Iceland/Greenland one today prior to final payment to get my $900 deposit back.  And, there's the issue of whether or not they might condescend to let me board one of their ships since I'm over 70.

[OuiOnboard]

Won't consider cruising until there is a vaccine.

[Quo Vadis?]

1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

I voted absolutely and this September...

 

This seems to suit the OP

 

back at YA:

[lostchild]

12 minutes ago, OuiOnboard said:

Won't consider cruising until there is a vaccine.

 

Or if you tested positive for the antibody test.   I think a lot of people already had the covid-19 just didn't know about it.   

[Prost Seattle]

The purpose of my September X cruise was to take my mom back to Hawaii where she lived as a young woman, and those were her happiest times.  She’s 85 and I just don’t see how taking a cruise with her would be in anyone’s best interests. 

[JanineM]

We were supposed to board on Sunday. And yes, I think cruising will be different but so will everything else!

 

My husband and I talked about it the other night. We're prepared to book a cruise for the fall. 

 

Right now people need to continue to dream and plan. That's how my mom and her family of prairie dirt farmers got through the Depression. They always knew things would get better ... they did then and they will now. 

[davekathy]

Currently as far as we're concerned we'll be cruising on the Eclipse September 2020. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

Argo - 

 

Nice summation of reality. 

Not surprising that some of the "optimists" are sneering and snarky in their replies.

 

It's a hard, ice-cold reality, to be sure - just like the whole matter of being alive in spring of 2020 has become damned hard.

 

I will miss the carefree and affordable rest known as mainstream cruising - it has been a grand way to visit exotic places, enjoy the ocean's tranquility, soak up the service and amenities and cuisine of the ship .... but I simply don't envision a near- or mid-term future where that comes back.

 

The devastating recession/depression has NOT YET REALLY BEGUN (I fear that in six months we'll view April as "the good old days") .... cruise ships are STILL arriving at ports with corpses and desperately ill passengers ... deep down, we all know that when the dust settles, Carnival is going to face regulatory, civil and perhaps criminal hell for these last rounds of ill-advised cruises ...

 

    yet some folks on CC are still asking if the June cruises will sail. I suspect most of them are the same ones who dismissed real news reports of this virus in January and February (and dear God, even into March) with the witless "Fake News!" and "lamestream media hype!" replies. They swallowed the lies.

 

  Head-in-the-sand denial is not optimism. And right now, it's downright dangerous.

 

I get the desire to just wish this all away, but folks ... it's just not going back to the way it was. That gets more clear every day. 

 

[JerseyGirlatHeart]

2 hours ago, mahdnc said:

Our next cruise is the Jan 3 2021 Solstice sailing, 11 night South Pacific.  A month ago, I would have thought that we were ok for doing this cruise.  Now I am not so sure.  My wife says no cruising until there is a vaccine.....

We are of the same mindset ... not until there is a vaccine.   Scheduled to sail on a B2B in Jan 2021 and wondering when to pull the plug on both legs.

[Georgia_Peaches]

Though I have participated in the poll, I appreciate the disclaimer regarding this thread and have stopped short of reading beyond the results.  No head in the sand nor are my glasses any color but clear, I just can't bare another thread that makes me walk away feeling like I need to pop a pill just to get to the next day.  Come what may, we will survive, we always do.  Be well everyone!  Truly.

[bouhunter]

4 hours ago, Argo. said:

 

1. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships

Get your facts straight.  They were not denied help.  The ships were allowed to dock shortly after arriving off Port Everglades and passengers escorted to waiting aircraft.  And the sick ones are in local American hospitals.

[cruise kitty]

While I couldn't vote in the poll ( my choice would be 'cautiously optimistic),  I do appreciate this thread.   I believe that early next year there will be a vaccine, & we will go on our Adriatic cruise....  However this thread did tip the scales towards my taking the refund rather than FCC for our cancelled May Alaska cruise.   (which, by the way I just received luggage tags for :(     

 

My reasoning is that if they go belly up or "reorganize"  we'd lose out of quite a bit of $$,  also,  we paid a premium price for next years cruise in a suite on the refurbished Constellation...  I highly doubt that the refurb is going to happen, & I expect a big, big price drop as time goes on.   The FCC would have just about paid next years cruise off, but I truly believe even if it does take place, we are better off taking the cash now, rather than gambling on a future cruise that may not happen.

 

On a lighter note, it's the same tactic I employ in a casino.   Any winnings are taken up to the room & put in the safe.  i feel that's what I'm doing right now.  :)

 

Hope everyone is staying safe at home :)  & be kind to one another :)

[zitsky]

There should be some balance in your/our attitude.  Maybe not "rah rah cruise lines never do any wrong", but also not "the world is coming to an end.  no one will survive".  This is a pretty terrible thing we're dealing with.  But we have been through difficult things before and we came out better for dealing with it.

 

We have a cruise in mid December.  I can't tell you right now if we will go.  Husband is canceling the hotel the day before but that is more because he wants a better deal.  Our final payment is in September and we have a $900 deposit.  We're just waiting to see if X cancels the cruise by then or if they make plans to go in December.

[journeymore]

4 hours ago, Argo. said:

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread.

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability.

1. Look at the stock price.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Are you buying stock in the industry? I already had RCL & yes I bought a 100 shares of CCL.
2. Look at your stock portfolio.  How much has it suffered this month?  Do you feel that you still have enough to indulge in cruising?  It's bleeding BAD. I feel life is short & I have more good day behind me than in front of me.
3. Have you lost your job? Retired 12/31/19. Has your salary been cut?  Can you still afford that cruise you booked months ago? As of today yes. Tomorrow may be another story.
4. Have you been on a ship with a confirmed Covid-19 case?  No Have you been tested as a result?  (My wife has)
5. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL? No Would you trade places with them? No
6. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity) IDK
7. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard? IDK probably as honest as government officials have been.
8. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues? NO
9. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $.
10. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships?
11. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams. I can't blame the cruise industry because we are in uncharted territory. Them as well as us are dependent and at the mercy of the governments. As we can see, information is changing daily & also we get mixed and conflicting information.

 

People are poorer, people are scared, senior cruisers are dying, companies are bleeding cash.  How is this going to end well before the end of the year? Sometimes the universe, god, God, aliens, or who/whatever has a way of bringing us to our knees or at least entering our comfort zone. I'm optimist that this too shall pass. 

 

 

[Fouremco]

27 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Get your facts straight.  They were not denied help.  The ships were allowed to dock shortly after arriving off Port Everglades and passengers escorted to waiting aircraft.  And the sick ones are in local American hospitals.

Yes, it would have been more accurate to say "If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and initially denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships." 

[Gracie115]

5 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Yes, it would have been more accurate to say "If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and initially denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships." 

It was never denied just questioned how it was going to be handled.  The governor said he didn't think south Florida could handle all those people coming in at once (I won't use his word because it was just stupid of him) but he never said they can't come.  All the powers that be worked on it all week until an agreement was made that took care of the passengers and the people of Florida.  I cried when I saw the Zaandam come in, can't imagine what it was like all that time having port after port deny you....but Florida worked it out and  brought them ashore.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Gracie115