Am I (we) going to be sorry I did not book cruises,trips and flights at these prices.

[clo]

6 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

isn't that a river cruise?

Oh I assumed it was a land tour.

[Ashland]

On 6/8/2020 at 4:16 PM, clo said:

But that's not a cruise, right?

No..Christmas Market land tour...no cruising involved.

[Ashland]

On 6/8/2020 at 4:28 PM, clo said:

Oh I assumed it was a land tour.

You assumed correctly...Sorry I didn't specify.

[evandbob]

What is the worst that can happen if I let low fares go by and I don't book them?

 

Then what is the worst that can happen if I book a low inducement fare and COVID interrupts my plans after embarkation?

[clo]

7 hours ago, evandbob said:

Then what is the worst that can happen if I book a low inducement fare and COVID interrupts my plans after embarkation?

We (actually) had lunch at a fave Mexican/Margarita place today. A few have cruised; most had not. But to a person when I described what you said the 100% consensus was "are you ****ing kidding me?"

[iancal]

I believe that cruise pricing will drop considerably post covid.  Clearly he cruise lines want to give the impression that all is good, prices are going up, not down so book now.    

 

The reality is that cruising has taken a terrible PR hit.   Public perception will not bounce back quickly.  Not to mention reminders as cruise line litigation is reported on the media.  Many of the people who post on this forum are not representative of the vast majority of cruisers or of the industry's target market.

 

 My guess is that when a vaccine is readily available and when the industry starts up again there will be some amazing bargains just to get people on the ships in order to create some good PR.  

 

We certainly would not be in any hurry to book.  Nor would we be booking airlines very far in advance either.  Or other vacation options for that matter.  Perhaps one exception....RV rentals and self catering cottages!

Edited June 12, 2020 by iancal

[clo]

4 minutes ago, iancal said:

.RV rentals

We just used our motor home to get to Seattle to help our daughter who had been in a pretty bad accident. Our "footprint" was negligible. And I anticipate a lot more of that in the coming couple of years. At least.

[navybankerteacher]

I hope she is doing well

- and that she is not too close to the “Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone” — hopefully the only non-US tract of land in what used to be called the “Continental United States”.

My sister lives in NE Seattle,  and has been keeping me advised of the growing anarchist attitude since the 1999 protests.

[clo]

3 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

My sister lives in NE Seattle,

They live in the Maple Leaf area and our place is in Lake City. To the north but still in the city limits.

 

Her prognosis is perhaps better. They decided against fusing her spine and are hoping that facial surgery won't be necessary. But 12 weeks in a huge collar.

[CPT Trips]

Add two to CHAZ

 

[c-boy]

 ..."   I believe that cruise pricing will drop considerably post covid...."   I donno, pricing could remain higher until more ships  come on line. 

Edited June 13, 2020 by c-boy

[Joebucks]

It's all a risk. I already severely regret not buying more cruise stock. No one knows the answers for sure. Everyone will fight you tooth and nail on their opinion because of the "facts" they choose to support.

 

I did a cruise mid-March in which tons of people I knew were losing their mind because I had basically planned my death. To everyone's knowledge, no one ever got it on that cruise (or many many other cruises) and no one died.

[navybankerteacher]

5 hours ago, Joebucks said:

It's all a risk. I already severely regret not buying more cruise stock. ...

Nothing is stopping you from placing buy orders at current tempting prices —- but you might want to see how the stock does if there is a second surge - or even if there isn’t one and the current conditions depress cruise company earnings for many more months.  Cruising will survive one way or the other - but the present owners of the lines (stockholders) may be replaced - without compensation.

[Roger88]

Dont even think about it. Prices are changing like everyday, You can still catch a good deal or even change your plans entirely and choose another way of spending your time. The more you think about possibilities you missed the more other future possibilities you will miss. The best thing to do in this situation is to relax and just wait until things will come back to normal 

[drsel]

Nothing is stopping you from placing buy orders at current tempting prices —- but you might want to see how the stock does if there is a second surge - or even if there isn’t one and the current conditions depress cruise company earnings for many more months.  Cruising will survive one way or the other - but the present owners of the lines (stockholders) may be replaced - without compensation.

"Shareholders will be replaced without compensation" kindly elaborate

[navybankerteacher]

44 minutes ago, drsel said:

On 6/13/2020 at 3:04 PM, navybankerteacher said:

Nothing is stopping you from placing buy orders at current tempting prices —- but you might want to see how the stock does if there is a second surge - or even if there isn’t one and the current conditions depress cruise company earnings for many more months.  Cruising will survive one way or the other - but the present owners of the lines (stockholders) may be replaced - without compensation.

"Shareholders will be replaced without compensation" kindly elaborate

I said “present owners of the lines (stockholders) may be replaced - without compensation.”   I was referring to the outcome if it turns out that cruising does not return to pre-COVID conditions quite promptly.  

 

Lines have invested heavily in large fleets of large ships which will require large passenger loads to operate profitably. They owe a lot of money to bond holders and lending banks who financed the shipbuilding - and who have also advanced funds to keep the lines in business these past months of significant operating expenses with no revenue.

 

Any prolonged downturn in bookings is very likely to lead to corporate reorganizations:  restructuring of debt.  What would then be likely is for present debt holders: lending banks and bond holders to be paid out (at least partially) in new stock, while new debt holders who will infuse necessary cash will come in —- and the old stockholders will get nothing.  

 

That’s the way bankruptcy restructuring generally works.  Stockholders enjoy the profits if a venture is successful - and bear the loss if not.   Think about most US airlines over the past several decades.

Edited June 15, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[FabFam4]

I have the following booked: Carnival November 2020, Princess June 2021 and NCL 2022. I liked the offers that Princess and NCL were offering. I had my November 2020 cruise booked before COVID but have gotten a couple price drops even though it is a holiday cruise. I'm really hoping we can cruise safely in November! 

 

Once we retire and aren't working around kid schedules, we will be looking at last minute deals. 

[bigrednole]

We are not really vacationing this Summer unfortunately. We moved our Aug 2 cruise before they are getting canceled. The reason was the pricing for a Thanksgiving cruise. If we waited to now (even though it is not canceled yet), the same cruise we moved to is now 2.5x what we paid for it. We would not be able to cruise if it got canceled. It was a good move for us. As for Summer travel, we were hoping a long weekend trip to Williamsburg VA maybe. But that is now out of the question as well. We will do weekend trips to a family member to go to the beach. 

[Nic6318]

On 6/15/2020 at 2:39 PM, FabFam4 said:

I have the following booked: Carnival November 2020, Princess June 2021 and NCL 2022. I liked the offers that Princess and NCL were offering. I had my November 2020 cruise booked before COVID but have gotten a couple price drops even though it is a holiday cruise. I'm really hoping we can cruise safely in November! 

 

Hi FabFam

 

How would you determine if you can "cruise safely in Nov."? There are many threads that touch on this, you will have to determine what is safe in your mind.

 

Looks like NCL has postponed their restart till Oct., we still don't know very much about anything here. Maybe the question still should be, Will there be cruises sailing in Nov.?

 

I know looking at the Carnival threads, it seems that it is almost expected that cruises will start in August and if they don't it will be because the company is trying to mislead the customers. Talk about putting blinders on! 😀

[FabFam4]

1 hour ago, Nic6318 said:

 

Hi FabFam

 

How would you determine if you can "cruise safely in Nov."? There are many threads that touch on this, you will have to determine what is safe in your mind.

 

Looks like NCL has postponed their restart till Oct., we still don't know very much about anything here. Maybe the question still should be, Will there be cruises sailing in Nov.?

 

I know looking at the Carnival threads, it seems that it is almost expected that cruises will start in August and if they don't it will be because the company is trying to mislead the customers. Talk about putting blinders on! 😀

 

Hi Nic6318 - I am under no illusion that sailing will start in August. I'm putting the chances of the Nov cruise at about 50%. My husband thinks I'm being optimistic and lowered his percentage to 40% after the NCL announcement yesterday. 😞 

 

No cruise (or vacation, or trip to the supermarket 🙂 ) is without risk. I agree that each individual needs to determine when they feel comfortable that it is safe enough to cruise again. For me personally, I will cruise in November if the sailing happens.   

[drsel]

Hoping that cruising will start by mid October.

[George C]

We already had two cruises booked hopefully can sail on both msc seaside in November and celebrity infinity in February. We normally book while on board.

[navybankerteacher]

5 hours ago, FabFam4 said:

 

Hi Nic6318 - I am under no illusion that sailing will start in August. I'm putting the chances of the Nov cruise at about 50%. My husband thinks I'm being optimistic and lowered his percentage to 40% after the NCL announcement yesterday. 😞 

 

No cruise (or vacation, or trip to the supermarket 🙂 ) is without risk. I agree that each individual needs to determine when they feel comfortable that it is safe enough to cruise again. For me personally, I will cruise in November if the sailing happens.   

Given what is happening with COVID in Florida now, I am surprised that there has only been silence concerning the early August sailings.

[sfaaa]

Yes I can relate. I am looking at some great non refundable flight deals with flexible one-time change option for my spring 2021 cruises. Book or don't book? It's a challenging decision.

[RonOhio]

On 6/13/2020 at 3:04 PM, navybankerteacher said:

Nothing is stopping you from placing buy orders at current tempting prices —- but you might want to see how the stock does if there is a second surge - or even if there isn’t one and the current conditions depress cruise company earnings for many more months.  Cruising will survive one way or the other - but the present owners of the lines (stockholders) may be replaced - without compensation.

The biggest problem for cruise lines is that no government is likely to bail them out. The biggest cruise company, Carnival Corporation is British-American organization that's incorporated in Panama. Number Two, Royal Caribbean, is incorporated in Liberia and Norwegian is incorporated in Bermuda ("Why don't they ask the Norwegian government for a bail out?") As far as I know, not a not a single one has a US flagged ship, a US built ship or a crew that's predominately US citizens. 

Not exactly an industry group that makes Congresswoman Jones worry about getting re-elected it she doesn't vote for a few billion to prop them up.