When will things start back up?

[clo]

2 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

For those of you who didn't yet see this:

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/readout-vice-presidents-call-u-s-cruise-indus

Edited October 10, 2020 by clo

[Flatbush Flyer]

https://www.dailyastorian.com/coronavirus/cruise-ship-regatta-heads-to-astoria-for-extended-stay-during-pandemic/article_fc199df8-0a89-11eb-ae67-fff5e61577e3.html

[RJB]

So, what are they going to do?   Just seem to keep talking and saying the same thing over and over again. 

[pinotlover]

The Regatta is down until at least the start of the Alaska sailing season. Then it’s up to the CDC if it will start then.

 

Shouldn’t Oceania’s management now officially cancel all those cruises until then?

Edited October 11, 2020 by pinotlover

[palakika]

I'm curious about this development as we just booked a cruise on Regatta April 22 to May 28 , 2021 San Fran to Miami and back to SFO. It looked like a safe enough bet, but maybe not!

Palakika

[Nashna]

We are booked as well on that sailing.  A few months ago, Oceania's website showed most of the stateroom categories waitlisted.  Today, O is showing availability in most categories. 

[CruiseLibra]

We are booked on the May 28th Regatta repositioning SF to Vancouver Alaska cruise. I have been optimistic that by then most of the Covid related issues will be behind us. Hope always springs eternal. 

 

[Tranquility Base]

Definitely no surprise, but good to see another cruise line being proactive.

 

Princess has cancelled all Australia & New Zealand cruises through to 31 May 2021.

[Tranquility Base]

Crystal have cancelled the cruises on their two Ocean ships through to 25 March 2021.

[Jancruz]

7 hours ago, Tranquility Base said:

Crystal have cancelled the cruises on their two Ocean ships through to 25 March 2021.

Crystal is in big financial trouble according to the travel industry people I know..I heard its for sale but that could be gossip

Jancruz1

[RJB]

10 hours ago, Jancruz said:

Crystal is in big financial trouble according to the travel industry people I know..I heard its for sale but that could be gossip

Jancruz1

If true who could possibly want to buy them at this time?   Would need deep pockets and a lot of time to make any profit.  Just my thoughts.  

[StanandJim]

2 hours ago, RJB said:

If true who could possibly want to buy them at this time?   Would need deep pockets and a lot of time to make any profit.  Just my thoughts.  

I hope that this won't be considered to be too editorial, but one of our, shall we say lesser Presidential luminaries has spoken endlessly about the very real advantages of a Recession to the One Percenters.

 

As your Grandmothers probably advised, "It is an ill wind that blows NO good".

True Dat, Nana!  😵

 

[Paulchili]

Heard this the other day from a friend.

Seems there are two main factors that determine the spread of Covid-19:

1. It depends on how dense the population is.

And

2. It depends on how dense the population is. 😀

[RJB]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

Heard this the other day from a friend.

Seems there are two main factors that determine the spread of Covid-19:

1. It depends on how dense the population is.

And

2. It depends on how dense the population is. 😀

Some people are very dense and will never change.  That could hurt all of us in stopping the spread.

[pinotlover]

9 minutes ago, RJB said:

Some people are very dense and will never change.  That could hurt all of us in stopping the spread.

It is endemic!!! 🤬. We are not going to “ stop the spread” until we have a reliable vaccine and have the population vaccinated!  The purpose of our wearing masks, social distancing, etc, was never to stop the spread, it was/is to control the rate of spread so to not overwhelm the health care systems. 
 

People not wearing masks, socially distancing, washing their hands, etc are not helping in Slowing the spread!

[Daniel A]

2 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

It is endemic!!! 🤬. We are not going to “ stop the spread” until we have a reliable vaccine and have the population vaccinated!  The purpose of our wearing masks, social distancing, etc, was never to stop the spread, it was/is to control the rate of spread so to not overwhelm the health care systems. 
 

People not wearing masks, socially distancing, washing their hands, etc are not helping in Slowing the spread!

I see a lot of posts stating that Covid-19 disease is 'endemic'.  Some posters believing the term means long lasting and others believe it means spreading rapidly.  Covid-19 disease is not endemic, it is pandemic.  Covid-19 is spread world wide and not localized to a particular geographic location.

 

See difference between meanings of pandemic and endemic: A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that's spread over multiple countries or continents. ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country. 

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I see a lot of posts stating that Covid-19 disease is 'endemic'.  Some posters believing the term means long lasting and others believe it means spreading rapidly.  Covid-19 disease is not endemic, it is pandemic.  Covid-19 is spread world wide and not localized to a particular geographic location.

 

See difference between meanings of pandemic and endemic: A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that's spread over multiple countries or continents. ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country. 

That's a far too limited definition of endemic. In fact some scientists have expressed concern about COVID-19 becoming endemic, and they do not mean "limited to a particular geographic location", they mean it in the sense of "prevalent".

Here's a reference:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6516/527

"Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?"

 

“Should reinfection prove commonplace, and barring a highly effective vaccine delivered to most of the world’s population, SARS-CoV-2 will likely settle into a pattern of endemicity,” write the authors of the paper. “Whether reinfections will be commonplace, how often they will occur, how contagious re-infected individuals will be, and whether the risk of severe clinical outcomes changes with subsequent infection remains to be understood.”

 

 

 

 

[Daniel A]

9 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That's a far too limited definition of endemic. In fact some scientists have expressed concern about COVID-19 becoming endemic, and they do not mean "limited to a particular geographic location", they mean it in the sense of "prevalent".

Here's a reference:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6516/527

"Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?"

 

“Should reinfection prove commonplace, and barring a highly effective vaccine delivered to most of the world’s population, SARS-CoV-2 will likely settle into a pattern of endemicity,” write the authors of the paper. “Whether reinfections will be commonplace, how often they will occur, how contagious re-infected individuals will be, and whether the risk of severe clinical outcomes changes with subsequent infection remains to be understood.”

The Dictionary of Epidemiology defines an endemic disease as “the constant presence of a disease or infectious agent within a given geographic area or population group; may also refer to the usual prevalence of a given disease within such an area or group.”

From:  Porta M, editor. 5th ed. New York: Oxford University Press; 2008. Dictionary of Epidemiology; pp. 78–9.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Daniel A said:

The Dictionary of Epidemiology defines an endemic disease as “the constant presence of a disease or infectious agent within a given geographic area or population group; may also refer to the usual prevalence of a given disease within such an area or group.”

From:  Porta M, editor. 5th ed. New York: Oxford University Press; 2008. Dictionary of Epidemiology; pp. 78–9.

That's all well and good but the scientists who have written the cited paper and used the word endemic differently are very well qualified and presumably believe their usage is acceptable in the scientific community.

 

Here's a bit about them:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201015101820.htm

"Shaman is a professor of environmental health sciences and director of the Columbia Mailman School Climate and Health program and a leading authority in modeling infectious disease outbreaks like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. He was among the first to recognize the importance of asymptomatic spread and the effectiveness of lockdown measures and published highly cited estimations of the hypothetic lives saved had lockdown occurred sooner. He and Galanti, a post-doctoral research scientist in Shaman's research group, also published research finding reinfections with endemic coronaviruses are not uncommon, even within a year of prior infection."

 

Apparently the U.K.'s chief scientific advisor, Patrick Valance, agrees with the authors' use of endemic in this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-19-likely-to-become-as-endemic-as-flu.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DeanoNorthPerth]

37 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That's all well and good but the scientists who have written the cited paper and used the word endemic differently are very well qualified and presumably believe their usage is acceptable in the scientific community.

 

Here's a bit about them:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201015101820.htm

"Shaman is a professor of environmental health sciences and director of the Columbia Mailman School Climate and Health program and a leading authority in modeling infectious disease outbreaks like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. He was among the first to recognize the importance of asymptomatic spread and the effectiveness of lockdown measures and published highly cited estimations of the hypothetic lives saved had lockdown occurred sooner. He and Galanti, a post-doctoral research scientist in Shaman's research group, also published research finding reinfections with endemic coronaviruses are not uncommon, even within a year of prior infection."

 

Apparently the U.K.'s chief scientific advisor, Patrick Valance, agrees with the authors' use of endemic in this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-19-likely-to-become-as-endemic-as-flu.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course there’s always the possibility you’re interpreting “endemic” differently to how the paper’s authors intended. They may have indeed meant it would end up confined to certain geographic areas such as those not taking sufficient steps to contain it. Just a thought.

[gnld]

Back on topic, folks! This morning, NCLH announced all their December cruises are cancelled; start-up now in January. This includes Oceania and Regent.

[chloemonkey]

32 minutes ago, gnld said:

Back on topic, folks! This morning, NCLH announced all their December cruises are cancelled; start-up now in January. This includes Oceania and Regent.

Did you receive an e mail?  If so, from which of the three lines?  As we have cruises booked on all three....and didn't receive any notification of the possible new start-up date.....

And I NEED to keep track of these silly dates in order to cancel within the "new" guidelines if need be....which I fear they will....

Thanks in advance...

[GICNJC]

Received from Oceania thru or TA this morning. 

[cayman09]

Posted on numerous sites. included all Norwegian brands.

https://cruiseradio.net/norwegian-cruise-line-cancels-remainder-of-2020-sailings/

 

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, DeanoNorthPerth said:

Of course there’s always the possibility you’re interpreting “endemic” differently to how the paper’s authors intended. They may have indeed meant it would end up confined to certain geographic areas such as those not taking sufficient steps to contain it. Just a thought.

I suggest you read Shaman and Galanti's paper, but I'll save you the trouble by quoting its opening paragraph and then the last two sentences of the last paragraph.  They are not saying what you're suggesting.

 

First paragraph:

"Reinfection, in which an individual is subject to multiple, distinct infections from the same virus species throughout their lifetime, is a salient feature of many respiratory viruses. Indeed, the persistence and ubiquity in human society of common respiratory viruses—including influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, and the endemic coronaviruses—are largely due to their ability to produce repeat infection. Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a critical concern has been whether humans will experience reinfections with this pathogen, which might enable it to become endemic."

 

Last two sentences of the paper:

"A duration of immunity similar to that of the other betacoronaviruses (∼40 weeks) could lead to yearly outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2, whereas a longer immunity profile, coupled with a small degree of protective cross-immunity from other betacoronaviruses, could lead to the apparent elimination of the virus followed by resurgence after a few years. Other scenarios are, of course, possible, because there are many processes at play and much that remains unresolved."