When will things start back up?

[ToxM]

We should have a competition on this board to see who can be first to go on a cruise (doesn’t have to be an Oceania cruise, any cruise, hell, maybe even a ferry!). Of course, if you are one of those who do not wish to start cruising quite yet, that’s fine, you just won’t win this competition...

 

I’ll start the ball rolling:

 

Cunard March 29th sailing for me.... if that doesn’t go...

Oceania May 12th .....if that doesn’t go (I will be bereft if it doesn’t sail)...

P&O October 28th....if that doesn’t go .... I am probably giving up. 

[KirkNC]

That’s one competition I will not win.  I am waiting until 2022 when I am guess I can enjoy a cruise experience.

[pinotlover]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

That’s one competition I will not win.  I am waiting until 2022 when I am guess I can enjoy a cruise experience.

I don’t believe some cruise lines can survive until 2022! Third quarter 2021 for a ramp up will be economically necessary. July - September 2021 for a full scale restart should be possible.

[Paulchili]

50 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I don’t believe some cruise lines can survive until 2022! Third quarter 2021 for a ramp up will be economically necessary. July - September 2021 for a full scale restart should be possible.

Speaking for myself, they can start sailing anytime in 2021 but I will wait till 2022 to see how things are coming along and await reports from early cruises from experienced O cruisers as to how the new experience compares to the past. By 2022 we should know a lot more about cruising and COVID.

[KirkNC]

9 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I don’t believe some cruise lines can survive until 2022! Third quarter 2021 for a ramp up will be economically necessary. July - September 2021 for a full scale restart should be possible.

I think they will start cruising a ship or two in the first qtr of 2021 but it will take all of 2021 to get their fleets back in service.  Unfortunately I also think they will have a couple of steps backwards along the way as an outbreak or two is inevitable.  By the end of 2021 the full impact of the vaccines should start to take effect making 2022 the beginning of a return to normalcy.  That’s how I see it anyway.

[cayman09]

After two cancellations (mine, not the cruiseline) and rebooking I have now cancelled my June 2021 cruise. I won't be looking forward to starting again until 2022. I am too tired of the worry and disappointment.

[RJB]

14 hours ago, clo said:

You call him "mister"?

Am I missing something here?   You should call him Mr.  Proper thing to do. 

[Tranquility Base]

I agree with the comments regarding reduced enthusiasm for significant cruising / major travel in 2021.

A lot of the bookings which companies have for 2021 are credits, which people are concerned about not being able to be used.

 

When cruising / major travel restarts in earnest it will be interesting to see just how much confidence is out there.

Many people, as mentioned on posts here, will be waiting until they see what the product actually is before putting down significant new money.

2021 will still be a slow year I feel.

Even when numerous different vaccines are deployed next year, people will be interested in how outbreaks are handled.

 

For some people they are prepared for another year of wait and see.

Others will take only small steps towards getting back to major travel.

Others are happy to put down new money for major 2021 travel.

 

It will be interesting to see how quickly the confidence returns.

2021 will be a nervous year for the travel / tourism industry.

 

 

 

[Tranquility Base]

Princess has cancelled all cruises through to 31st Mar 2021.

 

Also cancelled all cruises longer than 7 days sailing in and out of US ports through to 1st Nov 2021.

 

Also cancelled all cruises in or out of Japan through to 25 Jun 2021.

Edited November 20, 2020 by Tranquility Base

[mitchella51]

14 hours ago, Tranquility Base said:

Princess has cancelled all cruises through to 31st Mar 2021.

 

Also cancelled all cruises longer than 7 days sailing in and out of US ports through to 1st Nov 2021.

 

Also cancelled all cruises in or out of Japan through to 25 Jun 2021.

We can only hope that our ship does actually come down for our summer season next year or we could be looking at another cancelation.

[gnld]

Most other luxury/near-luxury cruise lines are not re-starting until Mar or April or beyond. Oceania & Regent still showing January. Lotsaluck, IMHO. We just cancelled an April transatlantic on the Marina; rebooked it onto the Riviera in the Med in May 2022.

For next year, we have an Azamara cruise around Italy in July - hope we can go. Then a Regent northern transpacific in Sept/Oct. We feel wide availability of a vaccine is key - and that might not be until springtime!

[edgee]

Interesting quote from Dr. Fauci Q & A in NY Times interview today (in a general way) backs up predictions on this board.

 

When do you think we’ll all be able to throw our masks away?

I think that we’re going to have some degree of public health measures together with the vaccine for a considerable period of time. But we’ll start approaching normal — if the overwhelming majority of people take the vaccine — as we get into the third or fourth quarter [of 2021].

[KirkNC]

8 minutes ago, edgee said:

Interesting quote from Dr. Fauci Q & A in NY Times interview today (in a general way) backs up predictions on this board.

 

When do you think we’ll all be able to throw our masks away?

I think that we’re going to have some degree of public health measures together with the vaccine for a considerable period of time. But we’ll start approaching normal — if the overwhelming majority of people take the vaccine — as we get into the third or fourth quarter [of 2021].

But the key to that quote is “if the overwhelming majority of people take the vaccine “.  Polls (Iknow, look how wrong they can be 🙄) report 20-30% saying they won’t take a vaccine.  That would not provide an overwhelming majority.  Heck, people won’t even wear masks and that would significantly reduce spread.

Edited November 22, 2020 by KirkNC

[pinotlover]

6 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

But the key to that quote is “if the overwhelming majority of people take the vaccine “.  Polls (Iknow, look how wrong they can be 🙄) report 20-30% saying they won’t take a vaccine.  That would not provide an overwhelming majority.  Heck, people won’t even wear masks and that would significantly reduce spread.

I would generally agree with this, however. We are now headed for 4+ months of a cold hard winter ( depending upon where one lives) with mandatory business closures and more isolation along with further spread of this disease.

 

I believe as we hit 2nd Quarter 2021, and the vaccine becomes available to a growing share of the population, many of those current anti- vaxers will be waiting in line to get out of the funk. Four to six more months of this will change their attitudes. As their world then starts shrinking around them even more, many more will give in. Will there still be anti-vaxers? Absolutely, but not in the current polled numbers.

[KirkNC]

3 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I would generally agree with this, however. We are now headed for 4+ months of a cold hard winter ( depending upon where one lives) with mandatory business closures and more isolation along with further spread of this disease.

 

I believe as we hit 2nd Quarter 2021, and the vaccine becomes available to a growing share of the population, many of those current anti- vaxers will be waiting in line to get out of the funk. Four to six more months of this will change their attitudes. As their world then starts shrinking around them even more, many more will give in. Will there still be anti-vaxers? Absolutely, but not in the current polled numbers.

I hope so.  I think another factor would be demands from businesses, those you work at or utilize demanding evidence of vaccinations.

[Paulchili]

56 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Four to six more months of this will change their attitudes. As their world then starts shrinking around them even more, many more will give in.

What makes you think they will change their minds about the vaccine when they can’t even accept wearing masks? Believe it or not, there are still a LOT of people that think the virus is a hoax.

The reasons behind this trend and beliefs I leave to peoples’ own interpretation.

[clo]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

with mandatory business closures

Has a state or county already done that?

[Tranquility Base]

With the Covid situation, I wonder just how much time and money smaller cruise lines such as Oceania are spending on preparing any ships to meet the CDC's CSO requirements.

 

There will be some items which will become permanent and so could be done, but other requirements could involve a lot of expenditure for sailing which may not even happen next year.

 

Will smaller cruise lines simply wait on the sidelines till mid 2021 and reassess just where in the world they may be able to deploy their ships to ? 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Tranquility Base

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 hour ago, Tranquility Base said:

With the Covid situation, I wonder just how much time and money smaller cruise lines such as Oceania are spending on preparing any ships to meet the CDC's CSO requirements.

 

There will be some items which will become permanent and so could be done, but other requirements could involve a lot of expenditure for sailing which may not even happen next year.

 

Will smaller cruise lines simply wait on the sidelines till mid 2021 and reassess just where in the world they may be able to deploy their ships to ? 

I think you've got it backwards. Any cruise line will be using their smaller ships for the initial required test cruises. And, in the long run, it will cost far less to do any necessary retrofits on smalle ships (much of which Oceania is already doing).

 

Between/among the challenges of an increasing number of ports restricting large ships, the difficulty in managing much larger crew/passenger loads (even with Covid-related caps on numbers), the economic strangling of disposable income for large segments of mass market cruisers who are now (and will continue to be) uncertain of employment.

 

As I've said before, megaships are headed to extinction and we may actually see cruising return to its glory times of yesteryear.

[njhorseman]

20 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

I think you've got it backwards. Any cruise line will be using their smaller ships for the initial required test cruises. And, in the long run, it will cost far less to do any necessary retrofits on smalle ships (much of which Oceania is already doing).

 

Between/among the challenges of an increasing number of ports restricting large ships, the difficulty in managing much larger crew/passenger loads (even with Covid-related caps on numbers), the economic strangling of disposable income for large segments of mass market cruisers who are now (and will continue to be) uncertain of employment.

 

As I've said before, megaships are headed to extinction and we may actually see cruising return to its glory times of yesteryear.

I virtually can guarantee that NCLH will be using NCL ships for their initial test cruises, not Oceania ships. Very simply those cruises are going to be short duration from Florida to either of NCLH's private island, cruises that will have zero appeal to Oceania's customers, but attractive to a not insubstantial number of NCL cruisers. I would guess one of the first, if not the first NCL ship to sail will be the mid-size Norwegian Gem (93,000 GT and 2,400 passengers), which is currently finishing up a drydock in Boston, and will be physically prepared and have at least some of her crew already certified as being COVID-19 free.

[CruiseLibra]

This is an interesting article from the Times of India regarding the Norwegian Escape picking up crew in India. There is also reference to future sailings of the Norwegian Joy to pick up and transfer additional crew.  https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/norwegian-escape-picks-up-goan-seafarers-for-cruise-ops/articleshow/79345383.cms

[Tranquility Base]

2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

I virtually can guarantee that NCLH will be using NCL ships for their initial test cruises, not Oceania ships.

I also note that Royal Caribbean are using Quantum of the Seas (capacity over 4,000 passengers) for their test cruises out of Singapore next month.

[Flatbush Flyer]

3 hours ago, njhorseman said:

I virtually can guarantee that NCLH will be using NCL ships for their initial test cruises, not Oceania ships. Very simply those cruises are going to be short duration from Florida to either of NCLH's private island, cruises that will have zero appeal to Oceania's customers, but attractive to a not insubstantial number of NCL cruisers. I would guess one of the first, if not the first NCL ship to sail will be the mid-size Norwegian Gem (93,000 GT and 2,400 passengers), which is currently finishing up a drydock in Boston, and will be physically prepared and have at least some of her crew already certified as being COVID-19 free.

Perhaps you've seen something about the test cruise certifications that i have not but, I doubt the CDC will certify multiple cruise lines in a consortia/holding company like NCLH based solely on using ship(s) of only one member.

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 hour ago, Tranquility Base said:

I also note that Royal Caribbean are using Quantum of the Seas (capacity over 4,000 passengers) for their test cruises out of Singapore next month.

RCCL is stuck with numerous big ships and will have to get those classes certified.

[Tranquility Base]

1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

RCCL is stuck with numerous big ships and will have to get those classes certified.

 Royal Caribbean Group (RCG) are using a large ship from Royal Caribbean International (RCI) to operate out of Singapore.

They are not using Azamara.

 

Perhaps NCLH will initially use NCL mid size  ships out of US ports to meet CDC CSO requirements and see how that goes first, before committing extra dollars to their smaller lines.

 

After all, who knows how many ships each major cruise group will want to get approved for 2021 cruising from US ports.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Tranquility Base