No Sail Order Lifted

[HappyInVan]

17 minutes ago, Keksie said:

A quarantine is when you isolate contagious people until they are no longer contagious.  A lockdown is when you keep perfectly healthy people isolated causing large numbers of unemployment, domestic abuse, drug use, alcohol abuse, and depression.  

 

How do you know who is infected and contagious if you don't do enough tests? How do you get ahead of the disease if you have insufficient contact tracing? By the time that a person has tested positive, he has infected others, who will infect others.

 

How do you know that an infected person is isolating if you don't track the person?

 

In the end, outbreaks get out of control when you don't sufficiently  limit P2P contact.

 

Its a no brainer when 100 members of a spinco facility are infected. Or, 36 members of a ballet academy. Or, 10% of the workforce in a workplace.

 

 

 

[Potstech]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Where are your sources from reputable institutions? I have never seen one to support your position?

Then you need to look at other places.  Try google for starters "lockdowns don't work"

[Daniel A]

14 hours ago, Mike45LC said:

My solution is to never turn on the TV during the cruise.  That exempted me not only from watching the required video but from being exposed to the Morning Show and other obnoxious "content".   But I know I am atypical.  

 

Years ago, the Port Lectures were interesting info about the ports, but even before the lectures were "televised" so you could view them in the cabins, they turned into nothing but sales pitches for the stores which paid the cruise line.  So I don't mind missing this content.

I put the TV on primarily for two reasons .  #1.  I keep the TV on the view from the bridge because when overhead announcements are made in the hallway, you don't hear it in the cabin unless you have the bridge cam channel on.  #2.  If I'm in a minisuite, I'll keep the second TV on the televised chart and weather conditions.  If I'm not in a minisuite, I keep the TV set to the bridge cam channel and will take a peek at the chart/weather channel from time to time.

[HappyInVan]

2 minutes ago, Potstech said:

Then you need to look at other places.  Try google for starters "lockdowns don't work"

 

Try 'lockdowns do work'. Here's a study. There's a link to the  source document in Nature.com...

 

"In the first peer-reviewed analysis of local, regional and national policies, the researchers found that travel restrictions, business and school closures, shelter-in-place orders and other non-pharmaceutical interventions averted roughly 530 million COVID-19 infections across the six countries in the study period ending April 6. Of these infections, 62 million would likely have been “confirmed cases,” given limited testing in each country.''

 

The study evaluated 1,717 policies implemented in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States in the period extending from the emergence of the virus in January to April 6, 2020... 

 

Large-scale policies were initially deployed based on recommendations from epidemiological modeling teams that simulated the spread of COVID-19 under different sets of assumptions. But since both the pandemic and policy responses are unprecedented, nobody knew in advance which policies would work or how effective they would be.''

 

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/06/08/emergency-covid-19-measures-prevented-more-than-500-million-infections-study-finds/

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8

[Keksie]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

How do you know who is infected and contagious if you don't do enough tests? How do you get ahead of the disease if you have insufficient contact tracing? By the time that a person has tested positive, he has infected others, who will infect others.

 

How do you know that an infected person is isolating if you don't track the person?

 

In the end, outbreaks get out of control when you don't sufficiently  limit P2P contact.

 

Its a no brainer when 100 members of a spinco facility are infected. Or, 36 members of a ballet academy. Or, 10% of the workforce in a workplace.

 

 

 

You don't know and that is how a virus works.  Where I live a person can get tested for any reason and the drive thru site had no people when I drove past it today so I don't think we need more test sites here.

I can see contact tracing work when a known group of people (say at a workplace) are exposed but at a store who knows who was there at the same time?

I don't think they make enough ankle monitors for everyone who tests positive.

It might just be easier for people who are worried about being exposed to just stay home.

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, Keksie said:

It might just be easier for people who are worried about being exposed to just stay home.

 

A I keep saying. Real adults wear masks to protect others.

[Keksie]

36 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

A I keep saying. Real adults wear masks to protect others.

I don't know what wearing masks has to do with anything that I posted about staying home but ok.

[HappyInVan]

2 hours ago, Keksie said:

Where I live a person can get tested for any reason and the drive thru site had no people when I drove past it today so I don't think we need more test sites here.

 

 

BTW, I see that Florida had a positivity rate of 8% on Nov 6. It's not a good sign if people are choosing not to test themselves. The infected are walking around spreading the disease.

 

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/#latest-stats

 

That's why I can't see cruising restart while covid is out of control. Apparently, the CDC is pretty dubious too. Pretty tough guideline.

 

 

[nocl]

18 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

BTW, I see that Florida had a positivity rate of 8% on Nov 6. It's not a good sign if people are choosing not to test themselves. The infected are walking around spreading the disease.

 

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/#latest-stats

 

That's why I can't see cruising restart while covid is out of control. Apparently, the CDC is pretty dubious too. Pretty tough guideline.

 

 

You might want to start focusing on Canada.  It is now in per capita infections about where the US was in September and climbing very rapidly . While it started at a low base it is now up 6X since early September to the US being up 2.5X during that same time frame.  Some EU countries worse than US.

 

This winter is going to get quite nasty for just about everyone in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

The cruises that started in Europe are generally getting halted. So not much change for cruising in the near future.

[Keksie]

34 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

BTW, I see that Florida had a positivity rate of 8% on Nov 6. It's not a good sign if people are choosing not to test themselves. The infected are walking around spreading the disease.

 

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/#latest-stats

 

That's why I can't see cruising restart while covid is out of control. Apparently, the CDC is pretty dubious too. Pretty tough guideline.

 

 

We just need all the people who have a really good idea that they are negative to get a lot of tests.  Bring that rate right down.  The positivity rate is just a difference between negative tests and positive tests.  By now all the curious have been tested and now are busy with their lives, leaving only people who are ill or have knowingly been exposed to get tested.  This will lead to a higher positivity rate.  I am sure once cold and flu season really gets going the positivity rate will go down because of the high rate of people with "symptoms" getting tested, having the flu and testing negative for covid.  As for cruising restarting I agree the guidelines are tough and I for one would not want to cruise with them in place since it does not sound fun.

[BirdTravels]

7 hours ago, Keksie said:

We just need all the people who have a really good idea that they are negative to get a lot of tests.  Bring that rate right down.  The positivity rate is just a difference between negative tests and positive tests.  By now all the curious have been tested and now are busy with their lives, leaving only people who are ill or have knowingly been exposed to get tested.  This will lead to a higher positivity rate.  I am sure once cold and flu season really gets going the positivity rate will go down because of the high rate of people with "symptoms" getting tested, having the flu and testing negative for covid.  As for cruising restarting I agree the guidelines are tough and I for one would not want to cruise with them in place since it does not sound fun.

In part true, but the vast majority of the people being tested at my test site were for upcoming surgeries and routine medical procedures. In our case, they were also testing for travel that required proof of a negative COVID test. All of these people are there because (1) they don't think that they have COVID and (2) they need to prove that for some reason. This constant flow of people expecting a negative result helps the positivity rates. 

[Steelers36]

14 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Try 'lockdowns do work'. Here's a study.

Sure a lockdown can work to quell the growth of cases.  But it certainly causes a whole lot of hurt in other ways that has been well documented.  There has to be a happy medium of some sort where schools and business can remain open, people take care of themselves and others with reasonable guidelines, and the vulnerable protect themselves by keeping isolated from a lot of people contact.  And so forth.

 

But I think you need a new CC handle since you are a "glass half-empty" type and don't sound very happy in Vancouver at all, while continually posting negative things.  Look on the bright side - a vaccine is coming.

 

And about your Korea mention above - they most certainly used quarantines (I know a couple that lives in Seoul).

 

[HappyInVan]

31 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

But I think you need a new CC handle since you are a "glass half-empty" type and don't sound very happy in Vancouver at all, while continually posting negative things.  Look on the bright side - a vaccine is coming.

 

And about your Korea mention above - they most certainly used quarantines (I know a couple that lives in Seoul).

 

 

As far as I know, South Korea has only isolated the infected and close contacts. They do require travelers to quarantine for 14 days in government hotels. The mayor of Daegu did ask residents to stay at home during the initial outbreak. However, they have not quarantine cities or districts as done in China.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Korea

 

The news has been bad. So, I tell it like it is. Global covid deaths 1.25m and climbing. USA deaths 230k. Canadian deaths 10k. Ontario deaths 3k and rising.

 

However, I feel good today. 'You're Fired!'

 

[HappyInVan]

8 hours ago, nocl said:

You might want to start focusing on Canada.  It is now in per capita infections about where the US was in September and climbing very rapidly .

 

Thanks for the concern. I'm watching BC closely. I can only speak for BC when I say that I am cautiously optimistic.

 

That's because we have identified the source of infection through contact tracing. About 3/4 of the recent cases come from the Fraser Health Authority. Most from the City of Surrey. Spread traced to private group events in the South Indian community.

 

Its a cultural issue. They live in extended families and are oriented towards social sharing P2P during multi-day weddings etc.

 

Just today, Public Health announced new restrictions. As usual, too late. They did not step on the brakes early enough. Did not identify populations at risk, and begin educational efforts at the start.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-announces-new-covid-19-restrictions-for-metro-vancouver-health-regions-for-2-weeks-as-cases-surge-1.5793969

 

The management in Public Health have to stop thinking like doctors. 'Something breaks down, bring it in, and we're try to fix it'. Management has to learn to be proactive like in the third world. Eradicate malaria and other infectious diseases.

 

In fact, East Asia has done a stunning job. Australasia has adopted the same goals. Can North Americans do the same.

 

The people of British Columbia are co-operative and disciplined. Mask usage on transit was 95%. Now, 98% without enforcement.

 

In addition, tracking of the infected is excellent. The infectious have to isolate, and are tested until they turn negative. So, Public Health can state that there were 17,149 cases. Cleared 13,035. Dead 276. Active cases 3,741. Residue just 79.

 

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020HLTH0059-001919

 

(What's happening in your state?)

 

That said. It is a serious spike. We used to see 30-50 infections a day in June. Now, up to 500 per day. Positivity rate 4%.  People will die. This is a cultural learning experience. Welcome to the new normal.

[Steelers36]

2 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

As far as I know, South Korea has only isolated the infected and close contacts. They do require travelers to quarantine for 14 days in government hotels. The mayor of Daegu did ask residents to stay at home during the initial outbreak. However, they have not quarantine cities or districts as done in China.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Korea

 

The news has been bad. So, I tell it like it is. Global covid deaths 1.25m and climbing. USA deaths 230k. Canadian deaths 10k. Ontario deaths 3k and rising.

 

However, I feel good today. 'You're Fired!'

 

You have given a better understanding of what you meant by quarantine.  It doesn't have to apply to an entire region or city.  And I wouldn't believe half the stuff that comes out of China.  

 

I am sure you do feel good because about 99% of Canadians have some level of TDS and it is far more rampant than COVID-19.  

[Keksie]

5 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

(What's happening in your state?)

 

 

In our part of the state we are going about our daily lives as before (except the stores are requiring masks).  I have been getting my dogs groomed, my nails done, shopping, last night we tried a new restaurant which was very good.  I am getting ready for Thanksgiving and have a lovely turkey hanging out in the freezer waiting for the big day.  My neighbor has picked his peanuts and now will be getting the cotton finished.  Big fun.

[Doubt It]

14 hours ago, nocl said:

You might want to start focusing on Canada.  It is now in per capita infections about where the US was in September and climbing very rapidly . While it started at a low base it is now up 6X since early September to the US being up 2.5X during that same time frame.  Some EU countries worse than US.

 

This winter is going to get quite nasty for just about everyone in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

The cruises that started in Europe are generally getting halted. So not much change for cruising in the near future.

 

nocl - quite right about Canada, cases are surging in most provinces. Yesterday British Columbia closed all gatherings in public/homes in the lower mainland, I am stranded now. Manitoba is rather out of control.

 

Americans need to realize that other countries are faring similar to them and you can and should stop beating your selves up. In numerous Canadian cities there are anti mask protests for example....

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7449509/coronavirus-aylmer-freedom-march/

 

I would keep the border closed both ways America, because Canada has not proven capable of containing the virus - the numbers in Canada are now are 3x higher than in April.

 

None of this is good for cruising for spring Alaska etc nor a QM2 visit to Halifax etc.

 

I would also say that there is the realization that the virus will be here for a while and that we are just going to have to live with it - this reality was stated by the Ottawa chief medical officer who had previously been lecturing residents to not do this or that. Her U turn, is here.

 

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-is-going-to-be-with-us-for-the-foreseeable-future-ottawa-health-budget-assumes-pandemic-costs-for-the-duration-of-2021

 

 

This also means that if cruising were to start up, there simply may be people aboard who have the virus - because testing is only good for one second in time. Add in people from upwards of 70 countries and it is a long term recipe for issues aboard.

 

I view cruise ships in the top 5 worse venues for spreading this virus, right up there with a stadium full of fans, protests etc.

 

No cruising for my household for the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

[HappyInVan]

3 hours ago, Doubt It said:

I would keep the border closed both ways America, because Canada has not proven capable of containing the virus - the numbers in Canada are now are 3x higher than in April.

 

None of this is good for cruising for spring Alaska etc nor a QM2 visit to Halifax etc.

 

 

 

I'm not that negative on Canada. Hope that we can establish some kind of bubble with East Asia, Hawaii, NY (northeast) and Iceland/Norway by spring. Vaccines are coming, but the general population won't be vaccinated till summer onwards.

 

 

[generichandle]

Incredible how we pull out stories and graphics that support our rationalized beliefs. Let me have another try:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

And quit pretending that 'no one could do better'. 

 

50 million people, less than 500 death. nuff said?

[capriccio]

5 hours ago, Keksie said:

In our part of the state we are going about our daily lives as before (except the stores are requiring masks).  I have been getting my dogs groomed, my nails done, shopping, last night we tried a new restaurant which was very good.  I am getting ready for Thanksgiving and have a lovely turkey hanging out in the freezer waiting for the big day.  My neighbor has picked his peanuts and now will be getting the cotton finished.  Big fun.

 

And the number of covid cases are increasing daily, hitting numbers last seen in mid-August, which I find very concerning.

 

Florida health officials on Sunday reported another 6,820 new cases of COVID-19, the highest number of new infections since mid-August. The high number of new cases comes even after many testing sites in South Florida closed temporarily for the weekend with due to the approach ofTropical Storm Eta. (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-cases-sunday-november-8-20201108-keizke7txfd4dm7qsc66djqmwm-story.html#nt=pf-double chain~homepage-top-heads~recommender~automated~-dont-move-popular-rec~KEIZKE7TXFD4DM7QSC66DJQMWM~3~5~10~10~art no)

[generichandle]

What, just refuse to read it?:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

It DOES work. They started as soon as they understood what was going on [approx same day as USA] , tested, quarantined, TRACED, and quarantined those too. Never let it get built beyond ability to trace. And they have had far less 'lockdown' days than USA. Because they took the steps without hesitation, and they had a public who supported the measures necessary. 

 

Again, 50 million people, less than 500 deaths. YES YOU CAN!

 

Denial is just pathetic, and deadly for 100's of 1000's of lives!

 

 

[chengkp75]

And, Taiwan.  23 million population, 553 cases, 7 deaths, only 55 local transmission cases.  200 days without a locally transmitted case.  No lockdown.  Compare that to Florida, with a similar population.  How?  They had a plan based on the 2003 SARS epidemic, and used it immediately.  Testing, quarantine, and contact tracing.

[Keksie]

5 hours ago, capriccio said:

 

And the number of covid cases are increasing daily, hitting numbers last seen in mid-August, which I find very concerning.

 

Florida health officials on Sunday reported another 6,820 new cases of COVID-19, the highest number of new infections since mid-August. The high number of new cases comes even after many testing sites in South Florida closed temporarily for the weekend with due to the approach ofTropical Storm Eta. (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-cases-sunday-november-8-20201108-keizke7txfd4dm7qsc66djqmwm-story.html#nt=pf-double chain~homepage-top-heads~recommender~automated~-dont-move-popular-rec~KEIZKE7TXFD4DM7QSC66DJQMWM~3~5~10~10~art no)

There is no way from the article to tell when the tests were performed.  Were they all done the same day or is it from more than one day?  In the past some of the high totals have been data dumps of accumulated positive tests.  There just is not enough information to know whether to be concerned or not.  My main focus these days is to make sure I have everything I need for Thanksgiving and to make sure to thaw the bird in plenty of time.

[MissP22]

10 hours ago, Keksie said:

My main focus these days is to make sure I have everything I need for Thanksgiving and to make sure to thaw the bird in plenty of time.

Same here. I've had enough of the virus & are tired of worrying about it.

😃 What will be, will be.

[ontheweb]

45 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Will cruises be sailing out of the States in January? 🤣

 

 

if it is up to the CDC, no. If it it up to the cruise lines and the Governor of Florida, yes.