Cruise without a vaccine

[clo]

3 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

We don't know yet whether the COVID vaccine(s) are or are not protective against infection. It may or it may not. But first it is more important to develop one that keeps people from DYING, end of story. Other endpoints can come later.

 

Thank you so much for showing up here. 
 

Between testing and vaccines, we have no intention of cruising and maybe not intl travel period until 3rd quarter 22. And that's still subject to reconsideration. We want to see how these things work once they have a lot of data.

[clo]

On 11/29/2020 at 1:51 PM, KnowTheScore said:

Frankly I'd be far far happier being on a ship with people who have previously had Covid and thus got natural immunity than a ship full of people who have only been vaccinated.  I'd feel much safer with the naturally immune demographic and for very sound reasons.

But one doesn't know - yet if ever - how long that immunity will last.

[ilikeanswers]

9 hours ago, clo said:

But one doesn't know - yet if ever - how long that immunity will last.

 

I read the largest study that was conducted that spanned three countries suggest three months on average but they had yet to check the T Cells response so it will be interesting to see the results on that study. Of course you have to take into account that getting natural immunity might also result in long lasting side effects the way the measles virus despite giving you immunity to said virus weakens your overall immune response to other infections. Personally I would rather take a controlled vaccine than leave it up to luck of nature😳

Edited December 1, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[ontheweb]

How can any study show long lasting immunity when no one even a year ago had this disease?

[ilikeanswers]

42 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

Interestingly scientists have been trying to create vaccines for Coronaviruses for many years since SARS and MERS and mostly unsuccessfully.  Yet suddenly, in just a few months we are being told that they have successful vaccines for Covid.   That situation raises my suspicions somewhat TBH.

 

No great conspiracy, the money just got cut off. Vaccines are expensive to make and turn little in profit. In fact governments around the world had to incentivise pharmacutical companies to even start researching a COVID 19 vaccine. In the case of MERS and SARS the threat disappeared so pharmaceutical companies didn't see the point to pour more money into something that would not turn a profit so the money was cut trials didn't go ahead and everyone moved on. If there is strong incentive then a vaccine can be produced pretty quickly. We should have had a vaccine for Ebola 20 years ago, all the research and pieces of the puzzle were there to make it happen but nobody was willing to invest in all the trials procedure until there was an outbreak of Ebola in Africa and only because of a huge push by WHO and the UN. The reality is unlike what conspiracy theorists and anti vaxxers like to propagate pharmacutical companies are actually not that fond of making vaccines and are very hesitant to invest money into it. Fortunately  under a pandemic governments seem to be willing to step in to push pharamacutical companies to make us COVID 19 vaccine. In one way it is a little sad to know we can do things like turn a vaccine around in record time but a sad lack of will is what doesn't allow this to happen more regularly.

Edited December 1, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[ilikeanswers]

37 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

Good grief I can't believe you kept a straight face typing that !!    What a load of cobblers !

 

"the total market for COVID-19 vaccines would be worth $100 billion in sales and $40 billion in post-tax profits"

 

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/lead-covid-19-vaccine-players-will-split-100b-sales-and-40b-profits-analyst

 

 

"That’s up from 147.8 million distributed last year, amounting to $1.61 billion in revenue, according to industry researcher IMS Health. Globally, manufacturer CSL estimates the market for influenza vaccines at $4 billion."

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/19/the-16-billion-business-of-flu.html

 

 

The well known reputable site STATISTA records the revenues for vaccines here:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/265102/revenues-in-the-global-vaccine-market/

 

It states the revenues (USD $) in the following years were:

 

2014 -  32.2 BILLION

2015 -  35.8 BILLION

2016 -  39.7 BILLION

2017 -  44.1 BILLION

2018 -  49.0 BILLION

2019 -  54.2 BILLION

2020 - 59.2 BILLION

 

 

So let's not be silly eh? 

 

Big Pharma is doing very nicely out of vaccines thank you very much.

 

Compared to other drugs vaccines represent only 2% in the worldwide pharmacutical market. Those numbers might look big on their own but compared to the trillions of dollars in the market, billions is a blip😆. According to Statista Pfizer's best selling vaccine turned 5.7 billion in revenue yet their Statin Lipitor made 13 billion in sales while around the world for statins in general are estimated at $1 trillion. So yes vaccines are pretty poor investment when you compare to other drugs which require far less research, resources, legislation and overall processes to develope. It is one of the major reason vaccine development has been on the decline in the last 50 years. The pandemic has created a unique situation but governments still had to be willing to throw money in to make pharmacutical companies feel it is less of a risk.

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[broberts]

5 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

You'd be surprised what we already know - from actual studies.   What you hear in the tightly controlled media is simply a handful of anecdotal tales about a chap who caught Covid twice.  What matters are actual studies of natural Covid immunity and its longevity and there are plenty of them.  It's just that the public are not being told as it doesn't fit the scaremongering narrative they want to put out.

 

What "tightly controlled media"? And just who is controlling it? 

 

The suggestion that millions of people are actively cooperating and conspiring to promulgate a lie is nonsence.

 

The suggestion that there is an active conspiracy to make people unduly afraid of a deadly disease is also nonsence. People expressing legitimate fears is not fearmongering.

Edited December 1, 2020 by broberts

[Toofarfromthesea]

CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates

Age 0-19 — 99.997%

Age 20-49 — 99.98%

Age 50-69 — 99.5%

Age 70+ — 94.6%

 

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/09/26/cdc-releases-updated-covid-19-fatality-rate-data/

[JMorris271]

On 11/3/2020 at 7:37 PM, sanger727 said:

that’s quite an arrogant response. Not everyone sees things the same as you or is in the same position as you. What makes sense for you makes sense for you, not everyone else. What about someone who has recently recovered from Covid. Why should they be concerned about traveling without a vaccine?

As it stands right now, they aren't certain how long that immunity will or if it exist under what circumstances it may not. Nothing is standing in your way of cruising except the cruise line.

[capriccio]

30 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates

Age 0-19 — 99.997%

Age 20-49 — 99.98%

Age 50-69 — 99.5%

Age 70+ — 94.6%

 

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/09/26/cdc-releases-updated-covid-19-fatality-rate-data/

 

Death, while being a terminal outcome of covid, is not the only potentially serious and/or possibly long lasting outcome.  But I think you know that already and chose to ignore it.

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

The studies show lasting immunity for the length of time people have had it so far and as time goes on that will obviously increase.    In addition, we must not forget that Covid is just one of a wide family of Coronaviruses which scientists and virologists have been studying for many years esp since SARS and MERS.   So they already have good knowledge of how Coronaviruses behave and what levels of immunity people have from suffering them.   Covid is of course novel and has it's own unique quirks but it remains nevertheless a Coronavirus.

 

Interestingly scientists have been trying to create vaccines for Coronaviruses for many years since SARS and MERS and mostly unsuccessfully.  Yet suddenly, in just a few months we are being told that they have successful vaccines for Covid.   That situation raises my suspicions somewhat TBH.

It is unprecedented in the entire history of vaccines to be able to create a new one and get through testing and safety checks in a matter of months.   The quickest it has ever happened before is 4 years and some took 18 years.

 

 

First, I will repeat there have been no long term studies because there has been no long term. You make assumptions that may or may not be warranted.

 

Second, isn't the common cold a coronavirus? Where is the long term immunity? I know I catch one every year including now.

 

Third, the work on the MERS & SARS viruses laid some of the foundation for the present virus vaccine. Others have already detailed why those vaccines never came into being, so I will not bother to repeat them.

[TheOldBear]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

First, I will repeat there have been no long term studies because there has been no long term. You make assumptions that may or may not be warranted.

 

Second, isn't the common cold a coronavirus? Where is the long term immunity? I know I catch one every year including now.

 

Third, the work on the MERS & SARS viruses laid some of the foundation for the present virus vaccine. Others have already detailed why those vaccines never came into being, so I will not bother to repeat them.

There are at least four common cold virus 'families' [rhino, corona, parainfluenza, adenovirus] with multiple virus strains in each. 

 

 

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, capriccio said:

 

Death, while being a terminal outcome of covid, is not the only potentially serious and/or possibly long lasting outcome.  But I think you know that already and chose to ignore it.

He clearly works hard at ignoring what he does not like.

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, broberts said:

 

What "tightly controlled media"? And just who is controlling it? 

 

The suggestion that millions of people are actively cooperating and conspiring to promulgate a lie is nonsence.

 

The suggestion that there is an active conspiracy to make people unduly afraid of a deadly disease is also nonsence. People expressing legitimate fears is not fearmongering.

Don’t you know that THEY control the media?  That control is necessary if THEY are going to be successful in making us believe that COVID is real.

[cruisemom42]

6 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

He clearly works hard at ignoring what he does not like.

 

With some people:

 

[LGW59]

On 11/29/2020 at 4:51 PM, KnowTheScore said:

 

I would totally disagree.  Vaccinated people can and DO still spread virus and disease.  There are numerous examples of it.  I just posted 5 factual examples here:

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2766080-will-vaccines-now-be-required/page/3/#comments

 

So no, vaccines are simply NOT going to be any kind of magic bullet.  

 

I agree that testing kits have been poor and given plenty of false-positives and false-negatives.  That needs to change.  It's interesting how they have been prepared to pile $billions into vaccine production but haven't bothered to spend a few $million on good reliable testing kits.  I have strong suspicions why that is the case.  Do we really think it is beyond the wit and technical ability of the medical industry to be able to create a 100% accurate Covid test??  Really?  But we trust them with a vaccine?

 

Either way, being vaccinated and waving any kind of certificate is not going to see you gain any special privileges.  You can still get Covid, you can still spread Covid to others so we are all the same.

 

If you become Covid positive on-board you're not going to be exempt from isolation just because you have a bit of paper in your hand.

 

Frankly I'd be far far happier being on a ship with people who have previously had Covid and thus got natural immunity than a ship full of people who have only been vaccinated.  I'd feel much safer with the naturally immune demographic and for very sound reasons.

"Frankly I'd be far far happier being on a ship with people..."  KnowThe Score, happier + people, sorry this does not compute.

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

Neither have there been any long term studies of any vaccine derived immunity because the vaccines are barely out of their trial phases.

 

However Covid has been with us for over a year now and many studies have been done to measure natural immunity levels in that year as I dutifully outlined with numerous source references which you are simply attempting to belittle and sweep under the carpet.

 

As it stands today those studies show that people who have had Covid, even with just mild symptoms, have levels of lasting immunity in 3 different forms.   They have immunity levels in their nasal passages and associated music,  they have immunity levels from antibodies and they have immunity levels from T-cells which are likely the most potent and important form imo.   

 

Added to that is the fact that lots of the public already had levels of immunity before Covid even came along due to past bouts of colds, Flu, ILIs and the like.   Blood samples taken from people in 2018 showed the presence of the all important T-Cells.

 

There's really no big deal here.  If you are in the vulnerable category which puts you at significant risk to Covid then you go get the vaccine if that is your choice.   If you're not vulnerable and your chances of getting serious symptoms from Covid are miniscule and your chances of dying from it even remoter then the risk assessment is a completely different one and I have no doubts at all that many millions of people in that latter category will opt to not take a vaccine.

There is one thing in your analysis I do not understand. You take anyone who has developed short term (for there is no long term yet) and make the assumption that the immunity will continue. At the same time you dismiss anyone who has lost immunity in the short term as "anecdotal". I see a contradiction there.

 

And if there is so much immunity as you claim, why are hospitals now being flooded with new cases and it seems almost every day a new high is reached in the death count?

[clo]

10 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

You take anyone who has developed short term (for there is no long term yet) and make the assumption that the immunity will continue.

THIS^

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, clo said:

THIS^

I would give just as much of a THIS^ to my statement that he dismisses anyone who has lost immunity as just aneccdotal.

[clo]

1 minute ago, ontheweb said:

I would give just as much of a THIS^ to my statement that he dismisses anyone who has lost immunity as just aneccdotal.

And at this point in time there aren't many things that aren't anecdotal. But some of us admit that and some don't.

[navybankerteacher]

1 minute ago, clo said:

And at this point in time there aren't many things that aren't anecdotal. But some of us admit that and some don't.

It takes a willingness to learn to be able to learn.   And all science is built upon proven facts, which themselves come from observed data, and all data starts out as anecdotal.

[ontheweb]

2 minutes ago, clo said:

And at this point in time there aren't many things that aren't anecdotal. But some of us admit that and some don't.

The point I was trying to get across was that you cannot take those cases that agree with your perception and consider them the gospel truth (and projecting into the future), and at the same time just dismiss any cases that disagree with your conclusions and just label them ancecotal.

[clo]

51 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

The point I was trying to get across was that you cannot take those cases that agree with your perception and consider them the gospel truth (and projecting into the future), and at the same time just dismiss any cases that disagree with your conclusions and just label them ancecotal.

Yep. And I get that and agree with you. 

[evandbob]

As some cruise lines are teetering on survival, perhaps one of them can advertise a free cruise giveaway for anyone who doesn't care to use prevention or avoidance methods?  Let them all sail a ship one last time, no masks, no social distancing, no vax, nothing.

 

The line is going out of business anyway, so let the ship wander the middle of an ocean until everyone of the freedom loving hoax believers contracts the disease.  Then let it stay there as proof of what will happen to people if they refuse to use their brains - a modern day ghost ship.

 

So we don't harm any crew members, start with a minimal staffing, use every PPE available, have them 100% certifiably vaccinated, and remove them as the ship gets to its final target mid ocean.  Then operate it remotely, slow circles out of the shipping lanes, even let it drift in a doldrum.

 

I'm thinking it could sail at full passenger capacity with the absurd number of deniers we have in this country.  Oh yeah, I mean let's start with all those who proclaimed the virus will disappear after the election.

[broberts]

Now that we are so close to approved vaccines I've been wondering if cruise lines are simply going to wait out the pandemic. After all satisfying the CDC guidance will not be inexpensive or quick.