Odds of NCL resuming most cruises by 2022

[drew69]

12 hours ago, Stealthdog said:

Almost 40 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine so far, and I think  I read more than 10 million have received both.  At this rate and with J&J likely to be approved soon, I don’t see why everyone that wants a vaccine won’t have it by early-mid Summer.  Why do people think cruising will still be shut down into 2022?

That is just a little over 10% of the US population.  Also, there is a big world out there beyond the US and the start of cruising, etc. relies on much more than just what works for the US.  

[roger001]

I think Carnival's CCO has given a realistic view of when cruises might happen again.  Basically he says, we have no idea.  

 

 

Chaimes went on to say, “Sometimes the answer is truly “we don’t know” and that’s the honest truth right now when anyone asks me “When will cruising resume?”

 

It’s all remaining very fluid at the moment and there has been a widespread shift to focus on vaccine rollout, “There was a lot of work on protocols, but the introduction of the vaccine, the renewed effort to ramp up vaccine production and distribution, and the goal of getting more people vaccinated quickly has appropriately taken the priority with regard to a number of activities and a “return to normal.”

Chaimes said that it was not their job to speak for the CDC. No matter how frustrated the cruise line is, they are simply doing what they can and waiting just like everyone else. He said, “the faster more Americans get the vaccine, the closer we will get to the resumption of cruising.”

[Stealthdog]

1 hour ago, drew69 said:

That is just a little over 10% of the US population.  Also, there is a big world out there beyond the US and the start of cruising, etc. relies on much more than just what works for the US.  

Right - a little over 10% in about the first two months.  There were projected ramp-ups already and two more vaccines waiting for approval.  Assuming retaining 1-1.5M per day which is what we have been seeing most of the year, and that’s another 150M - 225M does given by July.  
 

I get there is a big world out there, but this is big money.  I’m willing to bet the cruise lines start up Caribbean and Mexican cruises this summer if the vast majority of Americans have been vaccinated.  Depending on the status is Europe, wouldn’t surprise me if ships were not repositioned there this year if Europe lags behind the US (which seems to be the case so far).

[njkate]

Who knows anymore. I have a Northern Europe leaving and returning to Southampton for Oct 2021 that I'm not even hopeful for. I have a May 2022 Hawaii to Tahiti booked that I'm more optimistic for, that's 14 months away we have to be in better shape by then I would hope.

[pr0pel]

On 2/11/2021 at 2:48 PM, steveknj said:

We just booked (well rebooked using our money from the last cruise that got cancelled which was a rebook of a cruise from last March) to Canada for end of August 2022 on the Breakaway.   What does everyone think the odds are that this cruise finally sails.  And if it sails, what precautions will be needed for passengers (masks, vaccinations, etc.)    To be honest, I booked for late 2022 hoping that by then we could not only TAKE a cruise but that it will be at least kind of close to cruising as before (no masks, etc.)  The silver lining is that when cruises finally DO resume, I think the chances of getting something like a neurovirus will be very slim because of all the precautions these lines have taken for this virus.

 

So what do you all think?  Will we be cruising like it's 2019?

 

Aug 28th from NYC?  If so, 👋 .. we will be on that sailing!  Let's hope it will indeed sale as planned.  Been having the cruising itch since our Alaska cruise a couple of years ago.

[cabincop]

I think cruising in Europe starts before US ports. I have one booked for late Sept 2021. I’ve got a 75% chance of that happening. Even if doesn’t I’m still flying there. 

[life is to be happy]

On 2/11/2021 at 8:11 PM, DCGuy64 said:

Only time will tell, and anyone who claims to know for SURE what will happen by end of 2022 is someone I'd like to meet- I could use the stock tips such a wise individual would no doubt have. 😆

😉

[sanger727]

On 2/12/2021 at 8:35 PM, Stealthdog said:

Almost 40 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine so far, and I think  I read more than 10 million have received both.  At this rate and with J&J likely to be approved soon, I don’t see why everyone that wants a vaccine won’t have it by early-mid Summer.  Why do people think cruising will still be shut down into 2022?

i am very hopeful that cruising will resume by 2022. But the potential challenges I could see are:

1. The vaccines end up not being very effective for new strains

2. the vaccine effectiveness wears off too quickly 

3. The countries the cruise goes to requires all passengers be vaccinated AND vaccine isn’t approved for children yet

4. cruise lines require vaccine for crew but are unable to find enough crew that have been vaccinated/are unable to secure doses for the crew

[BoozinCroozin]

On 2/12/2021 at 8:35 PM, Stealthdog said:

Almost 40 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine so far, and I think  I read more than 10 million have received both.  At this rate and with J&J likely to be approved soon, I don’t see why everyone that wants a vaccine won’t have it by early-mid Summer.  Why do people think cruising will still be shut down into 2022?

If they give EUA approval to J&J's, then this is the dumbest thing I have heard. 66% effective is a failure. You cannot take another vaccine or take J&J's again to hope it works. J&J's should not be approved. The Federal government has the power to force increased manufacturing of a pandemic vaccine. I forget the law that I read about at this point. They have the power to force increased manufacturing at Pharma plants in the US and this is what should have been done from the start. Pfizer has 2 very large manufacturing plants within 50 miles of where I live. Those could easily be repurposed to mass produce the covid vaccine.

 

I bet if you dig into why they are not currently doing this, it is because of insane cost for the "dream baby" drugs. $13,000 for 21 capsule of Imbrance. Prevnar 13...$250+. Eliquis $500 for a 30-day supply. Lyrica $375. When you start to look at the $$$ signs, you can see why they are not repurposing for a pandemic. Why shut such massive profits for a vaccine that costs $50? If I recall, Pfizer did not take any government money for the vaccine. Moderna took $1.5B research grant and another $1B in purchases (I think they also signed another deal as well with the US government). You would think with $2.5B in US taxpayer money, Moderna would be forced to share the vaccine or ramp up manufacturing to the point of 500M doses in short term.

[hallux]

1 hour ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I forget the law that I read about at this point. They have the power to force increased manufacturing at Pharma plants in the US and this is what should have been done from the start. Pfizer has 2 very large manufacturing plants within 50 miles of where I live. Those could easily be repurposed to mass produce the covid vaccine.

Defense Production Act?  I believe the President has already invoked that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/05/biden-vaccines-tests-gloves/

 

For the OP - the bottom line comes down to IF NCL is allowed to resume cruising.  Right now there is simply no chance because the CDC has been a little preoccupied with other tasks that are more important than allow certain types of vacationing to resume.  I'm the people at the CDC would LOVE to get a vacation right about now..

Edited February 15, 2021 by hallux

[bucfan2]

2 hours ago, sanger727 said:

i am very hopeful that cruising will resume by 2022. But the potential challenges I could see are:

1. The vaccines end up not being very effective for new strains

2. the vaccine effectiveness wears off too quickly 

3. The countries the cruise goes to requires all passengers be vaccinated AND vaccine isn’t approved for children yet

4. cruise lines require vaccine for crew but are unable to find enough crew that have been vaccinated/are unable to secure doses for the crew

 

You certainly make some good points.  Regarding points 1/2, this should be called a shot, not a vaccine...boosters will be necessary with the various strains, not to mention wave 5, 6, 7, etc.

 

And the masks...2 layers now recommended...the 'stay scared' montra continues.

[roger001]

The J&J is not intended to be the preventative vaccine that the 2 shot vaccines are.  J&J is just an additional quick tool to assist in preventing serious symptoms if you do get infected.  For the world population that can't get the other two, this is a better than nothing vaccine that would indeed help very much slowing down the spreading and hospitalizations.  I got my two shots of the other.  But if they had not been quickly available for me and my wife at our age, I would have been happy to have the J&J if it would keep us out of a  hospital stay, lying there alone,  slowly dying with a ventilator tube stuck down our throats.  

 

The J&J vaccine was 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, and 85% protective against the most serious symptoms, according to early results of the clinical trial that included 44,000 people in the United States, Latin America and South Africa, the AP reported.

And starting 28 days after receiving the vaccine, no one who got it required hospitalization or died.

[Mercury]

36 minutes ago, roger001 said:

The J&J is not intended to be the preventative vaccine that the 2 shot vaccines are.  J&J is just an additional quick tool to assist in preventing serious symptoms if you do get infected.  For the world population that can't get the other two, this is a better than nothing vaccine that would indeed help very much slowing down the spreading and hospitalizations.  I got my two shots of the other.  But if they had not been quickly available for me and my wife at our age, I would have been happy to have the J&J if it would keep us out of a  hospital stay, lying there alone,  slowly dying with a ventilator tube stuck down our throats.  

 

The J&J vaccine was 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, and 85% protective against the most serious symptoms, according to early results of the clinical trial that included 44,000 people in the United States, Latin America and South Africa, the AP reported.

And starting 28 days after receiving the vaccine, no one who got it required hospitalization or died.

 

Yes agree. Also, those who have had the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine can also transmit the virus although their viral load will be reduced.

 

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-pfizer-vaccine-may-reduce-transmission

 

 

[Mercury]

Further, if it becomes mandatory to give proof of vaccination before boarding a ship, I doubt that the cruise lines will be specific about which vaccinations will be permitted. Eg, one person may have had the Pfizer vaccination and another the AstraZeneca (which has a lower efficacy). 

[Stealthdog]

3 hours ago, sanger727 said:

i am very hopeful that cruising will resume by 2022. But the potential challenges I could see are:

1. The vaccines end up not being very effective for new strains

2. the vaccine effectiveness wears off too quickly 

3. The countries the cruise goes to requires all passengers be vaccinated AND vaccine isn’t approved for children yet

4. cruise lines require vaccine for crew but are unable to find enough crew that have been vaccinated/are unable to secure doses for the crew

These are all really good points.  I don’t have much to say on 1 and 2 - other than hope.  What I am hearing from medical people here is  the vaccine might be combined with flu and given annually if it doesn’t last long.  I hope not, but we might be getting this yearly at the start of flu season.

 

I do think 3 and 4 will eventually be worked out, and am more worried about the first 2.  Cruise lines are losing hundreds of millions of $ and who knows how much tourism revenue some of these ports or are losing.  I don’t think cruise lines will let crew vaccinations stop them from starting up again - they are losing too much monthly.  They will either figure out how to get vaccines for current crew or get and train new crew who are vaccinated.  

[roger001]

It doesn't take long.  This outfit is already offering "officially verified" proof of vaccination ID cards.....for twenty bucks.  Flash that and you're official.  

 

https://www.castlebranch.com/online_submission/package_code.php?code=LX91realid

[CILCIANRQTS]

4 hours ago, roger001 said:

It doesn't take long.  This outfit is already offering "officially verified" proof of vaccination ID cards.....for twenty bucks.  Flash that and you're official.  

 

https://www.castlebranch.com/online_submission/package_code.php?code=LX91realid

 

Right, the cruise lines will accept any kind of proof you want to provide...

They’re pretty stupid like that. 🙄

[mtrancher]

5 hours ago, CILCIANRQTS said:

 

Right, the cruise lines will accept any kind of proof you want to provide...

They’re pretty stupid like that. 🙄

Aside from the fact I haven't heard of any cruise line saying they will accept this companies verification,  how does that make them stupid?

[All-ready2cruise]

10 hours ago, roger001 said:

It doesn't take long.  This outfit is already offering "officially verified" proof of vaccination ID cards.....for twenty bucks.  Flash that and you're official.  

 

https://www.castlebranch.com/online_submission/package_code.php?code=LX91realid

Kind of scary isn't it. 

[mtrancher]

8 minutes ago, All-ready2cruise said:

Kind of scary isn't it. 

WHAT is scary?

 

[winterbliss]

My curiosity continues. These are experimental vaccines. Now children are being brought in to these trials. Would those of you who believe it should be a requirement to have a vaccine to board a ship, feel quite comfortable with your underage children and/or grandchildren being administered an experimental vaccine? The insanity continues... 

[life is to be happy]

33 minutes ago, winterbliss said:

My curiosity continues. These are experimental vaccines. Now children are being brought in to these trials. Would those of you who believe it should be a requirement to have a vaccine to board a ship, feel quite comfortable with your underage children and/or grandchildren being administered an experimental vaccine? The insanity continues... 

I fully agree with you winter bliss... unbelieveable.

[chengkp75]

54 minutes ago, winterbliss said:

My curiosity continues. These are experimental vaccines. Now children are being brought in to these trials. Would those of you who believe it should be a requirement to have a vaccine to board a ship, feel quite comfortable with your underage children and/or grandchildren being administered an experimental vaccine? The insanity continues... 

When does an experimental vaccine become no longer "experimental"?  How do you prove a vaccine is successful on children, unless it is tested on children?  And, if you don't believe that children should be required to have a vaccine, who is forcing you to board the ship?  Yeah, the insanity continues.

[winterbliss]

8 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

When does an experimental vaccine become no longer "experimental"?  How do you prove a vaccine is successful on children, unless it is tested on children?  And, if you don't believe that children should be required to have a vaccine, who is forcing you to board the ship?  Yeah, the insanity continues.

Estimated end date for Pfizer January 2023....for Moderna December 2022. Yes, insanity continues.

[chengkp75]

11 minutes ago, winterbliss said:

Estimated end date for Pfizer January 2023....for Moderna December 2022. Yes, insanity continues.

And, who sets those dates?  Who decides that every vaccine or medication needs the same amount of time to determine safety and efficacy?  How many drugs have you seen advertised on TV one week with the tagline "prescribed for over 10 years", and then the next week you see the ads from the lawyers who want to litigate the personal injury claims when side effects "suddenly" come to light after those 10 years of being prescribed.  Nothing in life comes with a 100% guarantee, other than death, so where is the line drawn?