Speculations on what X will do in overcapacity situation

[CroozFanatic]

This won't happen on every cruise, but seems likely to happen occasionally.

 

Anyone wanna take a best guess here?

 

1. Refund the lowest paying customers

2. Put an offer on the table and see if enough cruisers take it, up the offer if necessary

3. Random draw

4. ?

[upwarduk]

Surely this can be controlled at the point of Sale, only sell named cabins and no guarantees.

[chemmo]

As they are only booking rooms with balconies on the new itineries I would assume that they may simply offer guests who have booked an inside/ocean view  cabin the option of money back or upgrading to any remaining balcony rooms.

 

Alternatively, If itineraries continue to drastically change (as they have for the Milli options) it may be that cruises presently booked for later this year (or until capacity restrictions are lifted) are again cancelled and then available to be rebooked with the correct number of rooms available.

 

I would also think that there will be a lot of guests who will still be choosing not to cruise later this year. For example, most UK passengers are unlikely to decide to cruise from European ports or USA ports until 2022. This may free up enough cabins to rearrange remaining passengers.

[dutchclogs]

Morning Chemmo,  what do you make of the unofficial reports of Silhouette offering British Isles cruises from July to August?  Very curious if the present planning is to keep the original itineraries from September onwards...

[chemmo]

1 hour ago, dutchclogs said:

Morning Chemmo,  what do you make of the unofficial reports of Silhouette offering British Isles cruises from July to August?  Very curious if the present planning is to keep the original itineraries from September onwards...

 

Curious. We heard on the news that P&O had a massive response to their new UK only itineraries, perhaps Celebrity thinks it may have a viable option, particularly with the great supply and take up of vaccines over here.

 

We have a Canary Island cruise booked for September...If there is any chance for Celebrity to offer a warmer cruise for UK passengers I would think these cruises (or variations to them) would have the most hope of still possibly cruising...We have done this itinerary before and it does appeal more to Brits wanting a last chance of sunshine before the winter. Suites on our cruise have been sold out for months...

 

Much as we are now desperate to cruise we would want to see how some cruises go before committing ourselves to boarding any time soon. Questions as to how safe and enjoyable the cruise experience is spring to mind as well as potential insurance costs. We don’t need to commit until August. If we are in any doubt we will (once again!) postpone. 

 

Returning to the OPs original question we have the PH booked so I don’t think we would be ‘evicted’ if the numbers on board are too high!

 

 

[Miaminice]

This speculation is going on for months now and I kept telling people to simply look at how it was done by the cruise lines already sailing. Now I can add, simply look at the cruises currently announced...

The sailings as originally booked are and will be canceled - for all.

New adapted itineraries are offered and can be booked by all. First come first serve. No debate about loyalty or category...

 

[ace2542]

5 hours ago, CroozFanatic said:

This won't happen on every cruise, but seems likely to happen occasionally.

 

Anyone wanna take a best guess here?

 

1. Refund the lowest paying customers

2. Put an offer on the table and see if enough cruisers take it, up the offer if necessary

3. Random draw

4. ?

Obviously they will go for the money and keep the highest paying customers. They will also likely look after their loyalist customers and sail persons who have the highest level of Celeb reward points if they can wouldn't you think?

[paulh84]

I would tend to think they would cancel all or most existing sailings and just start from scratch if it is necessary to cut capacity significantly. No fighting over who paid what, who booked when, who has the most loyalty, etc. There's no way they want to deal with that.

 

Caribbean January-March, if things have any degree of normalcy, may be a little more tough. Edge, Apex, Reflection carry most of the 7 night cruises. It would be hard to cancel those, shuffle things around and keep them on a Saturday/Sunday departure. They could redo them as shorter itineraries and naturally I think a significant number of people would cancel. I think anything over 7 nights is probably on the chopping block for the entire winter 21/22 season.

 

Only 19% of Edge/Apex cabins are interior or ocean view and only 15% on Reflection. Eliminating those two categories doesn't make a large difference if they were to still try to aim for 40-60% capacity rate at first. M class ships have over double the interior/OV's (43% of total cabins) that S and E class have so that decision makes a little more sense with those ships. 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by paulh84

[Seany527]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

Obviously they will go for the money and keep the highest paying customers. They will also likely look after their loyalist customers and sail persons who have the highest level of Celeb reward points if they can wouldn't you think?

Seems too complicated. 
 

I would think just straight up cancel the cruise, shift things around and then allow everyone to book - first come first served. Once they reach the cap, the bookings are closed until someone cancels. 

[ace2542]

17 minutes ago, Seany527 said:

I would think just straight up cancel the cruise, shift things around and then allow everyone to book - first come first served

If that happens do you think they will increase prices on the "new cruise"? And would they not offer the new cruise to the higher tiered loyalty members first or alternatively to the travel agents who sell the most business?. Or would they do strictly with their inbound sales team?

 

I just googled your loyalty levels? How many nights do you have to do to get to elite plus or zenith level? They have damn good benefits, particularly the zenith.

[wrk2cruise]

I think if you just look at the St Maarten cruises you will find that 1) prices will be higher, these sailings are about double what I typically pay for a Caribbean sailing.  2) they were not offered to the most loyal customers first.   I don't know what they did for TA's but thought it strange that they opened bookings hours before their announced 9 am opening.

 

Since points depend on category of cabin Zenith can be 1500 nights in an inside cabin (yes that's about 5 years) or 167 nights in the highest category.

 

With the introduction of AI pricing in November the the perks are not as valuable since now many included with the top tier are also included (added) to the price of the cruise.  There are long threads on that topic.

[phoenix_dream]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

Obviously they will go for the money and keep the highest paying customers. They will also likely look after their loyalist customers and sail persons who have the highest level of Celeb reward points if they can wouldn't you think?

You would think.  But then again, as regards the Captains Club levels,  Celebrity doesn't seem to value loyalty anymore.  In fact, I think the opposite is true.  Their advertising and design decisions all clearly point towards attracting new (and you can read the term "younger"  into that) higher income customers.  So while as an Elite Plus member I wish loyalty would matter in these decisions, I highly doubt it will factor in.

[Miaminice]

2 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Obviously they will go for the money and keep the highest paying customers. They will also likely look after their loyalist customers and sail persons who have the highest level of Celeb reward points if they can wouldn't you think?

No, they will and did just press the reset button and start all over.

 

And since the new cruises offered will not be like the ones originally booked, it’s the easiest and only way. Because by contract it’s not the same cruise. It’s also fair... everyone has the same chance.

 

[PTC DAWG]

1 hour ago, wrk2cruise said:

I think if you just look at the St Maarten cruises you will find that 1) prices will be higher, these sailings are about double what I typically pay for a Caribbean sailing.  2) they were not offered to the most loyal customers first.   I don't know what they did for TA's but thought it strange that they opened bookings hours before their announced 9 am opening.

 

Since points depend on category of cabin Zenith can be 1500 nights in an inside cabin (yes that's about 5 years) or 167 nights in the highest category.

 

With the introduction of AI pricing in November the the perks are not as valuable since now many included with the top tier are also included (added) to the price of the cruise.  There are long threads on that topic.

The prices I looked at yesterday were not any where near double what I usually pay for a balcony...

[CroozFanatic]

Hypothetically....

 

You could have an inside cabin sold on a cruise in July or August (2021) in the lowest paying inside category.

 

It may have even been booked before the pandemic started.

 

X really going to bounce this customer without some extra compensation? I can't see that. If the ship is sailing telling a guy that has waited for 18 months they are just refunding what he paid.

 

Nobody supported the airline model. Friend of mine was just offered a $600 voucher to arrive in Denver 12 hours past his original flight. He turned it down, but that was enough to reduce capacity on his flight.

 

There's just too much uncertainty about what the capacity restrictions are going to be and how long they are going to last, so (to me), it looks like the cruise lines are selling all of their inventory and going to figure out how to reduce capacity if they get the green light to sail.

 

[NMTraveller]

I would suspect that they will count the cruises you have sailed on Celebrity and the number of future cruises boooked and take that into account.  All speculation.

Edited March 27, 2021 by NMTraveller

[dazey]

We have a 11/20/21 cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale which is through Blue Chip Club and paying a reduced rate.  Thought about booking flights but am I correct that if anyone gets bumped to make space it would be us?  

[paulh84]

21 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

I would suspect that they will count the cruises you have sailed on Celebrity and the number of future cruises boooked and take that into account.  All speculation.

 

There is absolutely no way they want to open that can of worms and referee the drama it would create, or do the leg work to reconcile each customers bookings, rank them and so on. That would create a massive amount of work.

 

42 minutes ago, dazey said:

We have a 11/20/21 cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale which is through Blue Chip Club and paying a reduced rate.  Thought about booking flights but am I correct that if anyone gets bumped to make space it would be us?  

 

No one has any idea that is rooted in fact. Book refundable air if you must. 

[NMTraveller]

1 hour ago, paulh84 said:

 

There is absolutely no way they want to open that can of worms and referee the drama it would create, or do the leg work to reconcile each customers bookings, rank them and so on. That would create a massive amount of work.

 

In this day and age of computers it would be a simple task.

 

Whatever method they use will create a bunch of drama.

Edited March 28, 2021 by NMTraveller

[NutsAboutGolf]

The premise is lost on me, how would X allow over capacity in the first place?  We have to remember its ports, not X, who determines capacity limits and different locations will have different capacity limits.  Therefore I don't see how X could overbook in the first place; last thing they want is cruising to resume and have ports cancel and/or sailings forced to end early.

[jelayne]

48 minutes ago, NMTraveller said:

In this day and age of computers it would be a simple task.

 

Whatever method they use will create a bunch of drama.

A simple task for you maybe; not so simple for X’s IT department.

[Ashland]

For my July 2021 British Isles on Reflection...I would be first in line to give up my true aft suite for a return of my NRD 

[Miaminice]

2 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

The premise is lost on me, how would X allow over capacity in the first place?  We have to remember its ports, not X, who determines capacity limits and different locations will have different capacity limits.  Therefore I don't see how X could overbook in the first place; last thing they want is cruising to resume and have ports cancel and/or sailings forced to end early.

We are not talking about overbooking. We are talking about the guidelines for the beginning of cruising - 40-60 % capacity only.

[CroozFanatic]

3 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

The premise is lost on me, how would X allow over capacity in the first place?  We have to remember its ports, not X, who determines capacity limits and different locations will have different capacity limits.  Therefore I don't see how X could overbook in the first place; last thing they want is cruising to resume and have ports cancel and/or sailings forced to end early.

 

There's an assumption that I figured anyone clicking on this link would know and that is the CDC requirement and all of the cruise line CEO's saying they are starting with reduced capacity. How much and how long that will last has not be established. The cruise lines are selling all of their inventory.

 

So....if in September the reduced capacity is 70% and X has sold 80% of the cabins...well, you then have an overcapacity situation. I contend this is likely to happen at some point in 2021.

[CroozFanatic]

not empty

Edited March 28, 2021 by CroozFanatic