Masks probably required

[Merion_Mom]

1 hour ago, hazence said:

 

How did those models work out, Dr Ferguson...oh wait...you had to quit.

https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

 

 

 

 

That model was based on not taking any prophylactic measures.  No social distancing.  No masks.  No quarantine.

[HBE4]

7 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

That model was based on not taking any prophylactic measures.  No social distancing.  No masks.  No quarantine.

 

Thank you.

 

This pretty much proves that the lock downs and social distancing rules have worked.  Not sure how some can still deny it.

[Seville2Cabo]

Interesting article.  Hope the link works.  Does mention cruise ships, but it is a general article about how and where we are most likely to be infected.  Seems beach, golf course and other outdoor activities are pretty low.

 

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR2yLjicihFixlzj5tqThZ_t7e9sMifax8dOGDB9EbKbk4v7ze5IImTSnXE

 

 

[hazence]

28 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

Do people travel in out of your zip code? I heard SC is seeing a rise in the number of COVID cases and deaths. 

 

Stay safe. SC is one of 9 states to receive an "F" in social distancing.

https://www.livescience.com/south-carolina-coronavirus-updates.html

 

 And apparently some are concerned about that.

https://www.thestate.com/opinion/article242532736.html

 

EDIT TO ADD: This conversation should probably move to the "what is happening in your state" thread.

 

Serious answer.  My neighborhood is a gated community and although we have a substantial...about half...full time families...we have lots of “second homes”...”part timers” here as well.,  When this COVID pandemic started to get serious...suddenly all the part timers were back...many from big time hot spots like NYC, parts of Florida, New Orleans, California.

 

We also had a-lot of “refugees”...like our daughter...who arrived from London.  I’ve posted before that this daughter was on 5 international flights in late Feb and March...and spent about  a week in NYC.  Many other “refugees” have pretty solid travel schedules too.

The full timers are pretty heavy travelers in normal times. One couple got “stuck” in Egypt...a few others were traveling in Italy.  There was one part timer in China but they stayed in their other home.

 

So we are hardly Brigadoon...cut off from the world.

 

We have over 5,149 million residents in SC. We have cities like Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, Myrtle Beach...Deaths to date...320. Since nursing home deaths are over 100 of the 320 deaths in SC that means only 220 people who weren't in nursing homes died with COVID. And some of those didn't die from covid, they simply were positive for corona when they died. So far this year 259 people have died in auto accidents in this state. 

 

Anyway...our  POA asked everyone to voluntarily self quarantine if coming from somewhere else. Everyone has seemed to respect that. And our Governor banned short term rentals...which is not really a problem here.  We don’t allow Airbnb...or anything like that.

 

We do have to go into the Big City...an hour away...for many things...doctors or “real” shopping and many do. We have a small town that has a small Walmart and Ingles...but all the small businesses closed.  
 

The mask protocol is not well followed. BUt we have had zero cases, zero deaths.
 

There has been one death in the county.
 

 

 

 

 

[not-enough-cruising]

7 minutes ago, Seville2Cabo said:

Interesting article.  Hope the link works.  Does mention cruise ships, but it is a general article about how and where we are most likely to be infected.  Seems beach, golf course and other outdoor activities are pretty low.

 

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR2yLjicihFixlzj5tqThZ_t7e9sMifax8dOGDB9EbKbk4v7ze5IImTSnXE

 

 

This is because the virus is VERY delicate in the face of UV light. 

[hazence]

36 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

That model was based on not taking any prophylactic measures.  No social distancing.  No masks.  No quarantine.

Lots of criticisms of his models in British press...and his track record turns out to be not great.

 

 

For example, According to his models, unlocked-down Sweden should have had 40,000 deaths by now – in fact it has had around 2,850. This is a catastrophic level of error.

 

“And Ferguson has form when it comes to the worst-case ideology that is so obsessed with being risk-averse that it causes whole new problems of its own. In 2005 he said up to 200million people could die from bird flu – the final global death toll between the years 2003 and 2009 was 292.
 

In 2009, the UK government based its ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ for the impact of swine flu in Britain on Ferguson’s models, saying around 65,000 people could die. In the end just 457 people died.

 

In 2001 Imperial. (Ferguson again)  modelling on foot-and-mouth disease shaped government policy, which was to cull six million sheep, cattle and pigs. Later, an expert in veterinary epidemiology said that modelling was ‘seriously flawed’.

 

 

“However, it has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy.

He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds.”

 

 

“Last night, Dr Paul Kitching - lead author of Use and abuse of mathematical models, and the former chief veterinarian of Canada’s British Columbia province - raised fears over the modelling being done on coronavirus.”

 

You might want to read more here..and check out left leading  Guardian too.

 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

[HBE4]

40 minutes ago, hazence said:

For example, According to his models, unlocked-down Sweden should have had 40,000 deaths by now – in fact it has had around 2,850.

 

But unlocked down Sweden still has 10 times the deaths of Norway (220) and over 5 times of Denmark (550).

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/05/08/denmark-norway-relax-coronavirus-restrictions-but-borders-remain-closed/#2129973a4557

 

Plus, Sweden had a "voluntary" social distancing rule that the government left up to its citizens to comply with on the honor system and many did.

 

Even still, the rate of death is one of the highest in the world at 279 per million vs the US at 204 per million.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sweden-different-coronavirus-approaches-both-could-cause-deaths-2020-5

 

Having said all that, I do agree with you that models are imperfect and are only as good as the data fed into them. Even with precise, accurate information fed into the models, human behavior will almost surely alter the outcome.

Edited May 9, 2020 by HBE4

[hazence]

1 minute ago, HBE4 said:

 

But unlocked down Sweden still has 10 times the deaths of Norway (220) and over 5 times of Denmark (550).

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/05/08/denmark-norway-relax-coronavirus-restrictions-but-borders-remain-closed/#2129973a4557

 

Plus, Sweden had a "voluntary" social distancing rule that the government left up to its citizens to comply with on the honor system and many did.

 

Having said all that, I do agree with you that models are imperfect and are only as good as the data fed into them. Even with precise, accurate information fed into the models, human behavior will almost surely alter the outcome.

 

Very good point about Sweden. I’ve been curious and following that. Following what happens in Georgia too.
 

I hope when this is over we really look into how nursing home industry in every state. Lots to learn to protect our vulnerable loved ones.

 

 

[mugtech]

1 hour ago, hazence said:

 

 

We have over 5,149 million residents in SC. 

Lot more than I realized.

[Ocean Boy]

2 hours ago, Roger88 said:

The buffet will closed for sure. 

And you know this how? The Windjammer, if anything, is becoming more and more popular. Dinner in there is becoming busier every year. RCI is going to have to find a way to make it work.

[Iamcruzin]

50 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

And you know this how? The Windjammer, if anything, is becoming more and more popular. Dinner in there is becoming busier every year. RCI is going to have to find a way to make it work.

Windjammer is no more of a risk than the main dining room, bars, the gym, the spa, the pools, the casino or the salons. They won't even operate if all of these things need to remain closed.

[atgood]

1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

And you know this how? The Windjammer, if anything, is becoming more and more popular. Dinner in there is becoming busier every year. RCI is going to have to find a way to make it work.

We like the WJ for dinner, more and more each cruise.  We stopped liking the MDR as much as we used to like it around the time of the sideways dinner menus were rolled out.  

[time4u2go]

35 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Windjammer is no more of a risk than the main dining room, bars, the gym, the spa, the pools, the casino or the salons. They won't even operate if all of these things need to remain closed.

Yes!  Thank you!  I don't understand why people put so much emphasis on the Windjammer regarding the spread of this virus when there are so many other means of spreading it on a cruise ship.

[beerman2]

15 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Yes!  Thank you!  I don't understand why people put so much emphasis on the Windjammer regarding the spread of this virus when there are so many other means of spreading it on a cruise ship.

WJ or any other cruise line Buffet 100's of people will touch the serving utensils. And you know yourself not everyone washes/ sanitizes their hands. That heightens the possibility.

[time4u2go]

32 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

WJ or any other cruise line Buffet 100's of people will touch the serving utensils. And you know yourself not everyone washes/ sanitizes their hands. That heightens the possibility.

True enough, but the same is true for the casino, among other things.  Should casinos be closed?

[beerman2]

1 minute ago, time4u2go said:

True enough, but the same is true for the casino, among other things.  Should casinos be closed?

Buffets probably won't close , they just won't be self serve. Which will slow things down more , you may have 1 person serving 5-6 items.

 

Casino's you can have 3 or 4 people walking around cleaning/wiping off machines. 

[John&LaLa]

4 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

Buffets probably won't close , they just won't be self serve. Which will slow things down more , you may have 1 person serving 5-6 items.

 

Casino's you can have 3 or 4 people walking around cleaning/wiping off machines. 

 

Thoughts on table games🤔

[HBE4]

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

Yes!  Thank you!  I don't understand why people put so much emphasis on the Windjammer regarding the spread of this virus when there are so many other means of spreading it on a cruise ship.

 

Yeah, I don't really understand it either. I'd be more concerned about the 70's dance party in the Royal Promenade, the Quest, any night club dance party, leaving the theater after a show or any of the other 2 dozen crowd choke points around the ship.

 

1 hour ago, beerman2 said:

WJ or any other cruise line Buffet 100's of people will touch the serving utensils. And you know yourself not everyone washes/ sanitizes their hands. That heightens the possibility.

 

For years, I've been using a napkin when touching the serving spoon. Once I've gathered my food, I get a clean napkin when eating.

 

Sometimes the most simple solution is the best.

 

 

[John&LaLa]

12 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

Yeah, I don't really understand it either. I'd be more concerned about the 70's dance party in the Royal Promenade, the Quest, any night club dance party, leaving the theater after a show or any of the other 2 dozen crowd choke points around the ship.

 

 

For years, I've been using a napkin when touching the serving spoon. Once I've gathered my food, I get a clean napkin when eating.

 

Sometimes the most simple solution is the best.

 

 

 

There are absolutely simple solutions to most issues, not all. 

 

However, the biggest hurdle will be trusting 2,000 plus other folks to do the same. Not that you'll necessarily catch it, but if there is an outbreak we're all in the same boat per se.

Edited May 10, 2020 by John&LaLa

[Iamcruzin]

4 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

WJ or any other cruise line Buffet 100's of people will touch the serving utensils. And you know yourself not everyone washes/ sanitizes their hands. That heightens the possibility.

They touch the chips and the slot machines in the casino, the weights and other equipment in the gym, the hand grips on the rock climbing wall, they pull chairs out with their hands and touch the menus in the MDR, they rest their hands on the bars and tables, sit bareback and legs on the lounge chairs, and sweat in the hot tubs.

[xpcdoojk]

11 hours ago, broberts said:

 

Proof that is so?

It was on TV and the internet.... do you want God to come down and tell you directly??????

 

just wondering

 

jc

[PhoenixCruiser]

There is so much misinformation out there, especially on some websites posted in this thread.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[ONECRUISER]

13 hours ago, not-enough-cruising said:

This is because the virus is VERY delicate in the face of UV light. 

Agree. Where I'm at outdoor Shopping Malls, Golfing Inc Mini and Waterparks opened yesterday. All with restrictions

[ONECRUISER]

14 hours ago, smakl said:

She may be the mayor but they're so close lately they could be one and the same.  After all, the governor thinks that her city is the only thing that matters in IL

 

Feel for you, Michigan Gov here

Edited May 10, 2020 by ONECRUISER

[ONECRUISER]

7 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

They touch the chips and the slot machines in the casino, the weights and other equipment in the gym, the hand grips on the rock climbing wall, they pull chairs out with their hands and touch the menus in the MDR, they rest their hands on the bars and tables, sit bareback and legs on the lounge chairs, and sweat in the hot tubs.

...and 10 people just canceled their Cruises 🤢