The Cruise and Travel Industry is in a very bad place!

[Flatbush Flyer]

Just now, drsel said:

 

Cruise lines permanently out of business
1. Blount (USA)
2. FTI (Germany)
3. Birka (Sweden)
4. Pullmantur (Spain)
5. Cruise & Maritime (UK)
6. Jalesh (India)

This made me think about the auto industry. Remember Mercury, Oldsmobile.....?

[ldubs]

10 minutes ago, drsel said:

The market has to be in a long-term uptrend, because cash will keep on depreciating.
It's purchasing power will keep reducing.

But surprisingly, Cruise fares have been stagnant for decades, (at least upto Feb 2020 before Covid).

Which means that Cruises are really inexpensive now or were too expensive in the 70s and 80s.

 

And there quite a bit of evidence that notable expense reductions have occurred.  I can't say anything about cruising in the 70' or 80's but have witnessed some pretty big changes (reductions) in the experience.  Though I can't think that fares have been held due solely to focus on the expense side.   I actually do think that cruises are fairly inexpensive.  

[ldubs]

9 minutes ago, drsel said:

You are right, Ian.

 

Cruise lines which shut down

1. Blount (USA)

2. FTI (Germany)

3. Birka (Sweden)

4. Pullmantur (Spain)

5. Cruise & Maritime (UK)

6. Jalesh (India)

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

This made me think about the auto industry. Remember Mercury, Oldsmobile.....?

 

Rambler.  Studebaker (the Avanti was a terrific model). 

 

I only recognize one name on the list -- Pullmantur.  The others I've never heard of, which means nothing of course other than I've   never heard of them.  

[chipmaster]

6 hours ago, sfaaa said:

But cruising has already resumed in Europe and Asia.

 

And we opened up restaurants, sorry what is your point?

 

It's like looking at the stock market in melt down and noting a few stocks went up today, step back, take a deep breath and notice not one or two trees but the whole forest before you open you type anything 😉

[chipmaster]

For those with WSJ subscriptions an excellent article:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-shadow-of-the-pandemic-2024-and-beyond-11602860214

 

Basically anyone who thinks vaccine at WARP speed is going to change anything is blind and living in an alternative wishful reality.

 

The title says it all, BTW even after 2024 somethings will NEVER be the same.  

 

[pc_load_letter]

1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna917301

 

Yeah, that should work out wonderfully.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/06/27/san-franciscos-failed-experiment-of-homeless-hotels-is-a-cautionary-tale/

[Flatbush Flyer]

7 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

Yeah, that should work out wonderfully.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/06/27/san-franciscos-failed-experiment-of-homeless-hotels-is-a-cautionary-tale/

As far as the the cruise industry's megaships  go, all I care about is getting rid of them. The all-too-rapid growth of the mass market (due to obscene profit motive) continues to threaten and prey upon what once was a proud niche in the marriage of maritime and hospitality interests.

[Aquahound]

1 hour ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

As far as the the cruise industry's megaships  go, all I care about is getting rid of them. 

 

That's so typical of today's culture.  "I don't like it, so that means no one should like it and we should get rid of it."  🙄 

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

 

Rambler.  Studebaker (the Avanti was a terrific model). 

 

I only recognize one name on the list -- Pullmantur.  The others I've never heard of, which means nothing of course other than I've   never heard of them.  

Past autos: De Soto, Hudson, Packard.

[Toofarfromthesea]

8 hours ago, ColeThornton said:

 

I'm sure that's of little consolation to your Average Joe who owns no stocks and is unemployed because of the Covid.

 

That is one of the fallacies - that we are all in this together.  There is a vast gulf between people like me who are retired, still getting pension check, still getting my Social Security, back in plus territory on the 401k after the initial big dip, and that Average Joe you are talking about.  From a personal point of view I don't need help from the gov't., but I sure am in favor of it for the people who don't have a job or income and are hurting badly.  If one is in the fortunate group it is easy to forget about those who aren't.

[Toofarfromthesea]

4 hours ago, drsel said:

 

What show began in Jan 2017?
 

 

Some of them are trying to sneak politics into the discussion.  He meant 1/20/2017.

[Toofarfromthesea]

4 hours ago, drsel said:

 

I agree with you, but does it imply that the rich are getting richer and the poor getting poorer?

 

It does.  Unquestionably there are economic winners and losers, and as is always, and I mean in every time and place throughout history, the case that it is those on the lower end of the economic scale that bear the brunt of disease and war.  Fortunately, as the disease has increased, military action has decreased, so there is that at least.

[Toofarfromthesea]

1 hour ago, Aquahound said:

 

That's so typical of today's culture.  "I don't like it, so that means no one should like it and we should get rid of it."  🙄 

 

And get back to that gracious age when us riffraff were priced out.

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 hour ago, Aquahound said:

 

That's so typical of today's culture.  "I don't like it, so that means no one should like it and we should get rid of it."  🙄 

In this case, what I personally prefer just happens to be good for the environment. I think you'll find it is also the personal preference of the general population of cruise locations like Venice (for exactly the same reason).

[Flatbush Flyer]

31 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

And get back to that gracious age when us riffraff were priced out.

See post #64.

[drsel]

 
And we opened up restaurants, sorry what is your point?
It's like looking at the stock market in melt down and noting a few stocks went up today, step back, take a deep breath and notice not one or two trees but the whole forest before you open you type anything [emoji6]

My point is--if cruising has successfully resumed in Europe, its only a matter of time before cruising resumes even in the USA, sometime in 2021.

[drsel]

In this case, what I personally prefer just happens to be good for the environment. I think you'll find it is also the personal preference of the general population of cruise locations like Venice (for exactly the same reason).

You will find that people who don't like cruises are not going to be on this forum.

[Flatbush Flyer]

39 minutes ago, drsel said:

2 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

In this case, what I personally prefer just happens to be good for the environment. I think you'll find it is also the personal preference of the general population of cruise locations like Venice (for exactly the same reason).

You will find that people who don't like cruises are not going to be on this forum.

And the vast majority of folks who DO like cruises aren't on this forum either.

 

In any case, whether it's the CDC (or foreign equivalent Public Health entities) or Port Authorities and/or Environmental Protection Agencies (worldwide), the Cruise Industry is finally under a long overdue microscope while it is "out of commission."

 

How individual cruisers have felt about their past "megaship experience" is somewhat irrelevant in the current bigger picture. But, how they now recognize/react to the impact (real/potential) of megaships on environment/economy/public health is important.  Add to that the Covid/post-Covid economic hardships and new normal cruise policies/practices awaiting the mass market cruising public and it is very reasonable to assume that megaships will "go the way of the dinosaurs."

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, drsel said:

 

My point is--if cruising has successfully resumed in Europe, its only a matter of time before cruising resumes even in the USA, sometime in 2021.

As more and more covid is reported in Europe including on cruise ships, that IF becomes more and more of an IF.

[K32682]

The OP and a couple of others have a very realistic attitude on the future of cruising. We will not return to the way things were for at least two or three years and perhaps never will. 

 

People seem to have fallen into three groups:

 

1) Those who desperately wish the pandemic were over now and can't wait until the world returns to "normal." 

 

2) Those who ignore the pandemic and believe the world must return to "normal" now no matter how many people might get sick and/or die.

 

3) Those who accept the reality, understand the definition of "normal" has changed and adapt to it. 

 

A world without cruising as it was a year ago isn't necessarily a bad world. If I can't cruise I will travel via other means. If I can't travel internationally I will explore my own country. If I can't travel within my own country I will find other ways to enjoy my leisure time. 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by K32682

[evandbob]

If cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue their present upward trend, cruising may be doomed for a large part of 2021.  Europe and the USA are experiencing the start of the forecasted second wave now.  We haven't had #s this high since after the 4th of July.

 

I realize we all have COVID fatigue, and want a return to normalcy, but until there are gains in the treatment and prevention of this virus, that ain't going to happen.

[drsel]

With all these gloom and doom predictions, I wonder why creditors are lending many billions of dollars to the 3 big Cruise lines

 

And why the share prices have not fallen below the March lows.

[Hlitner]

13 minutes ago, drsel said:

With all these gloom and doom predictions, I wonder why creditors are lending many billions of dollars to the 3 big Cruise lines

 

And why the share prices have not fallen below the March lows.

Good questions and I guess it can be best explained by the usual risk-reward calculations.  While billions have been loaned or invested in the cruise lines the terms of those deals has been very advantageous for the lenders/investors.  In a world where it is difficult to get a decent ROI, the potential ROI on the cruise line deals is huge....if the cruise lines survive.  Meanwhile the investors feel they have some coverage because of the assets of the cruise companies.  

 

But lets be very honest.  The investment community has often been wrong and lost big time!  My long gone daddy used to tell me that the first folks to jump out of windows in 1929 where the "experts."  Perhaps the cry should be "Remember Enron."  And then we could also talk about Eastern Airlines, Pan AM, Regency Cruise lines, Renaissance Cruise Lines, etc etc.  I have heard some convincing economic arguments that the cruise industry will survive COVID because the public demand for cruises is strong (based on future bookings).  But all this assumes that the cruise lines will be able to resume operations by mid 2021 (at the latest).  If that prediction does not come to pass the dominos will begin to fall in the 2nd half of 2021 (my prediction).

 

Hank

[jtwind]

There seems to be a fairly large base of folks who really, really, love cruising.  When this all started, I thought that cruise lines would have to give away cruises for the first few months just to get people to take the risk.  I'm very happy that there are so many who love cruising so much that they are willing to be guinea pigs at their own expense.  We'll all learn a lot.

[cruisemom42]

Very early into this pandemic, I was of the opinion that if we had really buckled down early, we could've stopped the spread of this thing, as they've done in a few other countries (and not all of them totalitarian; e.g., New Zealand). But I've accepted now that this was never likely in the US -- such a large country with so many points of entry, no government will to act early and decisively and a large population of scofflaws.

 

Another thing I have come to accept is this: as much as many of us love travel and cruising, any significant return to unrestricted activities like this is going to have to await better control and treatment options. COVID is just transmissible enough to rear up anywhere when requirements are withdrawn and people congregate together again whether for work, travel, or entertainment (bars, sporting events, etc.)  We in the US have never had this under control, but even in countries where infections have been low and compliance with social distancing and wearing masks is high, infections resume once you drop your guard. At least it seems that mortality rates have dropped as recognition and treatment has improved...

 

I also can't really understand why so many people feel it is their job to single-handedly save the cruise lines by getting back to cruising too soon. If cruising is so popular (and it is), there will be cruise lines in future, when it is safe to resume. Whether or not they are the same cruise lines is somewhat irrelevant -- but then, I've never really understood the fierce loyalty some seem to feel toward their chosen favorite lines. It seems to me we should be putting ourselves and our own health and the health of our families, loved ones, friends and community ahead of the economic welfare of a leisure industry -- shouldn't we?

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by cruisemom42