Cruise Lines pressuring CDC to open cruising by July

[CruisingHogFan]

38 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

I guess those spring training baseball games just aren’t attracting the fans like they used to.  Saw a lot of empty seats while watching the Yankees the other day.

I think that could be a MLB rule? I have season tickets for the Razorbacks and we were limited to about 25%. Now it’s about 50% with plans to increase later this spring. Some of its state rules but I think the SEC also controls capacity.

[d9704011]

24 minutes ago, CruisingHogFan said:

I think that could be a MLB rule? I have season tickets for the Razorbacks and we were limited to about 25%. Now it’s about 50% with plans to increase later this spring. Some of its state rules but I think the SEC also controls capacity.

Good lord man, don’t confuse the discussion with your sensibilities!  livingonthebeach has stated that Florida is pretty much wide open and I’m just a bit unconvinced.

[Tree_skier]

3 hours ago, dswallow said:

 

You're double adding. 28.6% of the population or 36.7% of adults as of the moment I captured the data.

 

CDC COVID Data Tracker

 

 

You are right my data is vacs per 100 people. That doesn't account for those that have had 2 shots.  Still, we're a long way from a small percentage.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Tree_skier

[firefly333]

4 hours ago, CruisingHogFan said:

I think that could be a MLB rule? I have season tickets for the Razorbacks and we were limited to about 25%. Now it’s about 50% with plans to increase later this spring. Some of its state rules but I think the SEC also controls capacity.

I got the impression the team had some input or maybe mark Cuban just claims credit here. Yes I know not baseball league, basketball, but I remember him crowing about percentage of fans allowed. 

 

I'm seeing all of the teams spring training has limited capacity. But each a little different, so I doubt it's set by the state. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by firefly333

[firefly333]

7 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

And yet, even with 2mm+ shots / day the US adult population won't be vaccinated until fall.  And then we need safeguard the children.

How do you get to fall. That doesnt match to anything being said.

 

I've seen by mid april there will be extra vaccines,  more so than people who want them. Texas is already open to all adults. Soon we will be there. ...to where the rest just dont want to get it. 

[smalltimecruiser100]

On 3/26/2021 at 8:58 PM, HBCcruiser said:

Cruisers who want to sail out of US Ports can fight back too. Click here to sign a letter to your congressmen asking them to open our ports!

 

https://cruising.org/en/clia-action-center.

I sent the letter. Thanks for posting it

[ArthurUSCG]

9 hours ago, Tree_skier said:

You are right my data is vacs per 100 people. That doesn't account for those that have had 2 shots.  Still, we're a long way from a small percentage.

We are still only at 15.8% of the TOTAL population that is fully vaccinated, that is far from the 80%ish needed for herd immunity.  Some of the latest studies are finding that in the 11 to 13 year olds they have the same risk of infection as adults, they are looking at the development of sinuses  that happens during puberty as what raises the risk level.

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, ArthurUSCG said:

that is far from the 80%ish needed for herd immunity. 

If you look at the early numbers from Israel, ~70% might be enough.

[orville99]

10 minutes ago, ArthurUSCG said:

We are still only at 15.8% of the TOTAL population that is fully vaccinated, that is far from the 80%ish needed for herd immunity.  Some of the latest studies are finding that in the 11 to 13 year olds they have the same risk of infection as adults, they are looking at the development of sinuses  that happens during puberty as what raises the risk level.

While true, the numbers that matter relative to the probability of hospitalization or death are the numbers for the "at risk" groups, and those are substantially better:

 

 

[ArthurUSCG]

6 minutes ago, orville99 said:

While true, the numbers that matter relative to the probability of hospitalization or death are the numbers for the "at risk" groups, and those are substantially better:

 

 

Unless we are limiting who is going on the cruise, then the total population matters.

[jules815]

Not sure if I posted this on the RC forum or not, but I hope they take into consideration that many of the people working at the port and in the supply chain are more than likely receiving Pandemic Unemployment Relief (PUA) benefits. 

 

The most recent relief bill extended those benefits, but only thru September 4. With vaccinations on the rise, and the country beginning to get back to normal, I highly doubt there will be another extension. If cruising doesn't begin until November, that would be 2 months without any source of income for those people.

[DCGuy64]

50 minutes ago, ArthurUSCG said:

We are still only at 15.8% of the TOTAL population that is fully vaccinated, that is far from the 80%ish needed for herd immunity.  Some of the latest studies are finding that in the 11 to 13 year olds they have the same risk of infection as adults, they are looking at the development of sinuses  that happens during puberty as what raises the risk level.

Don't know where you got 80% from. According to this article, it's closer to 50-67%. And if we've already inoculated over 15%, then we're likely already 25% there, with vaccinations only starting what, 3 months ago? I'd say that's darn near miraculous. At the rate we're going in the US, we'll reach herd immunity by summertime.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1

 

[DCGuy64]

13 hours ago, baldilocks said:

I agree. After today's CDC Directors statement that we in a 'doom' situation and everyone needs to go back to mask wearing, no travel, etc. This even applies to vaccinated folks. Go back to your cave you serfs. This is the Government and we know what is best for you. So no cruising for you.

 

A new study just released from Denmark stated that the reinfection rate for people who have had Covid is 0.6%.

Well said on all points!

[ArthurUSCG]

8 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

Don't know where you got 80% from. According to this article, it's closer to 50-67%. And if we've already inoculated over 15%, then we're likely already 25% there, with vaccinations only starting what, 3 months ago? I'd say that's darn near miraculous. At the rate we're going in the US, we'll reach herd immunity by summertime.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1

 

Dr. Fauci said "You can make an extrapolation from other infections. I say between 75 and 80 85% of the population." but that was from an interview months ago. I haven't kept up on the expect herd immunity % needed, but it's likely we will see the infection rate plummet as we get close since the infection chain will start to be broken.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/cnbc-transcript-dr-anthony-fauci-speaks-with-cnbcs-meg-tirrell-live-during-the-cnbc-healthy-returns-livestream-today.html


The Isreal press is still reporting 80%, I believe this is due to the increased transmissibility of the new variants. "As noted, experts believe that around 80% of the population would have to be vaccinated or recovered to achieve herd immunity, but this is just an estimate."

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-israel-reached-herd-immunity-662075

Also, keep in mind that this is for the TOTAL population and not just adults. So in areas with higher % population under 18, will need almost all adults to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

[DCGuy64]

5 minutes ago, ArthurUSCG said:

Dr. Fauci said "You can make an extrapolation from other infections. I say between 75 and 80 85% of the population." but that was from an interview months ago. I haven't kept up on the expect herd immunity % needed, but it's likely we will see the infection rate plummet as we get close since the infection chain will start to be broken.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/cnbc-transcript-dr-anthony-fauci-speaks-with-cnbcs-meg-tirrell-live-during-the-cnbc-healthy-returns-livestream-today.html


The Isreal press is still reporting 80%, I believe this is due to the increased transmissibility of the new variants. "As noted, experts believe that around 80% of the population would have to be vaccinated or recovered to achieve herd immunity, but this is just an estimate."

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-israel-reached-herd-immunity-662075

Also, keep in mind that this is for the TOTAL population and not just adults. So in areas with higher % population under 18, will need almost all adults to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

So what we have are dueling definitions of what herd immunity even is. No wonder we can't get society back to normal: we can't even agree on what normal IS, let alone when we've achieved it.

We're doomed. Life as we know it will never return.

 

[ArthurUSCG]

12 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

So what we have are dueling definitions of what herd immunity even is. No wonder we can't get society back to normal: we can't even agree on what normal IS, let alone when we've achieved it.

We're doomed. Life as we know it will never return.

 

Unfortunately, the herd immunity rate needed for covid is a theory, since no country have achieved it yet. The current theories are based on similar known viruses since there is no data on covid-19 yet. But this is the way science works. This is also why no one wants to give an exact % of the population needed, since it is unknown.

[smokeybandit]

18 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

So what we have are dueling definitions of what herd immunity even is. No wonder we can't get society back to normal: we can't even agree on what normal IS, let alone when we've achieved it.

We're doomed. Life as we know it will never return.

 

There is no magic number. And there's no firm data to use to even accurately estimate when you get there. Plus herd immunity is not an on/off light switch. It's a dimmer switch.  The more vaccines/infections that occur, the more benefits you get as you approach the highest brightness setting.

 

But since there is no firm figure for what herd immunity is, the powers that be can hold it hostage.

Edited March 30, 2021 by smokeybandit

[DCGuy64]

2 minutes ago, ArthurUSCG said:

Unfortunately, the herd immunity rate needed for covid is a theory, since no country have achieved it yet. The current theories are based on similar known viruses since there is no data on covid-19 yet. But this is the way science works. This is also why no one wants to give an exact % of the population needed, since it is unknown.

Mmm, yes and no. The Covid-19 vaccines were developed in part based on vaccines used in previous Sars diseases, which is why the pharmaceutical companies didn't have to start from scratch. The Covid-19 variant is different from previous ones, but not entirely. Hence, since we have experiences of herd immunity from other diseases, they can serve as a template for this one, as well. But the larger point is this one: if what retards our society's return to normal is the unknown, then our society will never return to what it was pre-Covid-19. Every outbreak, every spike in cases, and every variant will be used as a justification for keeping society pretty well locked down. We may have entered a phase in human history where our incessant worrying about "what if" will change everything, and not for the better. If that's the case, then cruising will never return to the US because there will always be worry and doubt. A society that bases everything on worry and doubt will simply stagnate and die.

[BecciBoo]

9 hours ago, firefly333 said:

How do you get to fall. That doesnt match to anything being said.

 

I've seen by mid april there will be extra vaccines,  more so than people who want them. Texas is already open to all adults. Soon we will be there. ...to where the rest just dont want to get it. 

So is Arkansas up to age 18

[orville99]

1 hour ago, ArthurUSCG said:

Unless we are limiting who is going on the cruise, then the total population matters.

Every cruise that has started sailing again has limited the numbers and conditions of the passengers they allow on board. Two major tentpoles in all of those cruises:

1) Only people living in country, and

2) Vaccinated or tested negative.

 

I do not see any reason why those same two tent poles can't (shouldn't) be applied to initial cruises out of U.S. ports.

[DCGuy64]

9 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Every cruise that has started sailing again has limited the numbers and conditions of the passengers they allow on board. Two major tentpoles in all of those cruises:

1) Only people living in country, and

2) Vaccinated or tested negative.

 

I do not see any reason why those same two tent poles can't (shouldn't) be applied to initial cruises out of U.S. ports.

Agreed, and I have to say I object to the argument advanced by some that all of the US has to achieve herd immunity before cruise passengers may board. I highly doubt that even 10% of the US population even cruises on an occasional basis. As you correctly state, it is possible for domestic cruising to proceed using only US nationals, as other countries have done and continue to do. (And capacity is likely to be limited at first, anyway)

[baldilocks]

Georgia has opened Covid vaccinations to anyone 16 years old or older. Mass vaccination sites are in full effect at the moment along with everything form Kroger's, CVS to mom and pop pharmacies. The site where I received my vaccinations is going at 3000 per day and it is not considered one of the mass vaccination sites.....but, we still have the substantial  'no to vaccine' group here in Georgia. 

[orville99]

Just now, baldilocks said:

Georgia has opened Covid vaccinations to anyone 16 years old or older. 

And Florida, the cruise capitol of the U.S., will open up to everyone 16+ on Monday 4/5.

[Shorewalk Holmes]

4 minutes ago, baldilocks said:

The site where I received my vaccinations is going at 3000 per day and it is not considered one of the mass vaccination sites.....but, we still have the substantial  'no to vaccine' group here in Georgia. 

Great news about Georgia's vaccinations.  Things are going pretty well in AZ too.

 

But sorry to hear about the substantial 'no vaccine' group. It's sad that herd immunity in the US could be blocked by anti-vaccination and anti-mask misinformation.

[HBE4]

16 minutes ago, baldilocks said:

Georgia has opened Covid vaccinations to anyone 16 years old or older.

 

12 minutes ago, orville99 said:

And Florida, the cruise capitol of the U.S., will open up to everyone 16+ on Monday 4/5.

 

New York drops to 30+ today and 16+ next Tuesday 4/6.

 

By mid-April, close to 35+ states should have open eligibility.